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- Questioning the $1-a-Day Poverty Threshold: Myth or Reality?
Abuja, Nigeria. April 24, 2013. Executive Summary – The dollar-a-day poverty threshold is considered to be one of the globally recognised measures of poverty. According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) about 61 percent of Nigerians live on less than $1 a day. Over the years, this figure has elicited comments and debates from scholars and analysts calling for a review of this threshold to reflect a more realistic poverty line. In order to contribute to the poverty discourse, NOI Polls has conducted its recent polls to estimate what Nigerians spend daily on feeding. Key findings from the poll reveal that, on the assumption that people eat at least once a day, only about 2 in 10 Nigerians (19%) were found spending below N160 (US$1) for their meals in a day, with 80% spending above the threshold. Furthermore, on the assumption that people eat at least three times a day, the results indicate that less than 1% of Nigerians were found to spend below N160 daily. In summary, given that these current figures only focus on daily food estimates, and not shelter, clothing or transportation, we therefore submit that a lot more Nigerians live above US$1; and call for further investigation and, perhaps, a review of the dollar-a-day poverty threshold. Background – In February 2012, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released its report titled “Nigeria Poverty Profile 2010”, which stated that about 61.2 percent of the population (more than 100 million Nigerians) were living on less than $1 a day at the end of 2010[1]. This figure represents almost a 10 percent increase from 51.6% that were living on less than US$1 in 2004. This statistic suggests that the majority of Nigerians live in poverty and, as a result, can barely afford the basic necessities of life such as food, shelter and clothing. Although there are several approaches to measuring poverty such as the relative, absolute and subjective poverty measures, as well as the income inequality and consumption expenditure measures, the dollar-a-day poverty threshold has been considered one of the globally recognised measures for poverty. The dollar-a-day is a common international poverty line[2] developed by economists in the late 1980s. A group of economists at the World Bank in Washington DC noticed that a number of developing countries drew their poverty lines at an income of about $370 a year which reflected the basic amount that a person needed to live. Each country had a different sense of what the essentials were, but the figure of roughly $370 was common to all, so the World Bank team proposed it as a global poverty line. If you divide that $370 by 365 days, you get just over $1. So the catchy “$1-a-day” concept was born. However, over the years, the dollar-a-day poverty threshold has been criticised[3] both locally and internationally, with scholars, statisticians and development agencies reconsidering more realistic poverty measures to align with changing economic indices. Away from the US$1-a-day, the World Bank now adopts a standard measure of US$1.25 per day. Similarly, in 2012 the African Development Bank (AfDB) adopted $2 per day as the poverty line for the continent, and found 34 percent of the population above it. Closer home, the $1-a-day measure continues to be questioned as analysts argue that the proponents of the dollar-a-day statistic did not actually convert $1 to naira to determine what could be bought by an average Nigerian. They calculated a specially-adjusted dollar using the Purchasing Power Parity. This technique asks how much money would be needed to purchase the same goods and services in two countries, and uses that to calculate an exchange rate. A detailed analysis provided by Enhancing Financial Innovation and Access (EFInA), a donor-funded organisation, estimates Nigeria’s adult population at 87.9 million. It further divided this total between four million adults earning above N70,000 ($440) monthly, 38 million adults earning between N18,000 and N70,000, and the balance 45.9 million adults (52 percent) earning below the national minimum wage of N18,000. There remains an on-going debate in Nigeria regarding the reality of the dollar-a-day statistic. Opinion leaders have questioned the finding by NBS that the majority of Nigerians (61%) live below the poverty line. Specifically, analysts have been asking: Is it true that most Nigerians live on approximately N160 (US$1) a day, given inflationary trends and the rising cost of basic essentials such as food, shelter, clothing and even transport. Against this background, NOI Polls conducted this latest poll to examine the assertion that most Nigerians live on less than $1 a day. An additional objective of this poll is to validate the suitability of the dollar-a-day statistic as a measure of poverty in Nigeria. It is expected that the results and findings from this poll will provide some evidence to contribute to the on-going poverty debate and generate some useful data to support policymakers in the area of poverty alleviation. We also hope that it serves as a platform for future scholars and analysts researching into poverty in Nigeria. Methodology – In conducting this study, NOI Polls adopted an expenditure approach to estimating the cost of one of the basic necessities of life. Food, clothing and shelter are considered basic necessities, and we decided to estimate the daily cost of food. The decision to poll on food was made because food remains the key sustenance to life. Also, we believe every Nigerian eats food to survive and will be able to easily relate with “food”, and unlike shelter and clothing that may elicit relative responses. We have also made the assumption that every Nigerian eats some form of food at least once daily, and have compared this with the assumption that Nigerians eat three times daily. It is worth noting that while this approach “to estimate the daily cost of feeding” may appear simplistic, its robustness is grounded in the scientific process of selecting respondents. Moreover a poll for the general public requires specific skills to design questions that are simple and easy to understand by the “average Nigerian”. In furtherance, the poll involved telephone interviews of a random nationwide sample and was conducted from March 18th to 19th 2013. A total of 1,002 randomly selected phone-owning Nigerians, aged 18 years and above, and representing the six geopolitical zones in the country, were interviewed. With a sample of this size, we can say with 95% confidence that the results obtained are statistically precise – within a range of plus or minus 4%. The questionnaire was designed in English and the poll was conducted in English, Hausa, Yoruba, Ibo, and Pidgin, to ensure coverage of relevant geographical and demographic groups. NOI Polls acknowledges that this report may be limited by its sampling restriction to only “mobile phone-owning Nigerians”. However, previous survey results by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) have suggested that about 63.9% of Nigerians own mobile phones (NBS, 2012), and more recent figures from the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) have stated that Nigeria has 143,327,286 active GSM lines (NCC, 2013). Therefore, our decision to adopt telephone interviews, and the validity of our polling approach, are hereby justified. Results & Findings – Respondents to the poll were asked people three specific questions. The first question sought to establish what Nigerians eat for breakfast, lunch and dinner. Respondents were also asked: What type of food do you typically consume for (1) Breakfast (2) Lunch and (3) Dinner? Overall, the majority of respondents (42%) eat Bread for Breakfast, followed by those who eat Rice, Spaghetti or Noodles (22%). Ball foods (such as Eba, Fufu, Semovita and Amala) were mainly consumed for Lunch (50%) and Dinner (48%). Similarly, the Rice, Spaghetti and Noodles food category was the second most popular option for both Lunch (35%) and Dinner (34%). Next, in order to ascertain where Nigerians eat their meals, respondents were asked: Where do you mostly eat your for (1) Breakfast (2) Lunch and (3) Dinner? The results show that for the majority of respondents (76%) Breakfast is mainly either eaten at home or taken from home to be consumed elsewhere. This also applies to Lunch (36%) though the proportion refers more to those who take food from home to consume at work or elsewhere. Other popular places where Nigerians eat Lunch are Canteens (25%), Restaurants/Eatery (21%) and Bukas (17%) (i.e. local food joints). Once again, the results show that majority of Nigerians (87%) eat Dinner at their homes. Finally, in order to estimate how much Nigerians spend on their daily meals, respondents were asked the most critical question to the study: Personally, how much do you spend daily on (1) Breakfast (2) Lunch and (3) Dinner? Respondents were encouraged to estimate for only themselves even when they eat communally. The results show that for breakfast the slight majority (29%) spend between N160 to N239 (an average of N 200), closely followed by 27% that spend between N80 to N159 (an average of N 120). Also, most Nigerians spend more on Lunch and Dinner, than on their breakfast. The majority spend between N240 andN319 (an average of N 280); Lunch (33%) and Dinner (39%). Taking a look at the figures for each meal independently, the results show that, for Breakfast, Lunch and Dinner only 30%, 14% and 13% of respondents, respectively, feed on less than US$1. Therefore, based on our initial assumption that people eat at least once a day, an average of the three percentages reveal that only about 19% of Nigerians live on less than US$1 a day. See Table below. Meal Less than N160 (US$1) Above N160 (US$1) Breakfast 30% (3% + 27%) 69% (29% + 23% + 2% + 4% + 5% + 1% + 1% + 4%) Lunch 14% (2% + 12%) 86% (20% + 33% + 4% + 9% + 11% + 1% + 2% + 1% + 5%) Dinner 13% (1% + 12%) 85% (17% + 39% + 3% + 10% + 8% + 1% + 2% + 5%) Average 19% 80% However, when we conduct further analysis based on the assumption that people eat at least three times a day, the results present more interesting findings. Linking this to the dollar-a-day measure, the amount spent on each meal was totalled and further analysed to determine the total amount spent daily on feeding. Overall, the results show that the majority (24%) of respondents spend between N634 to N791 (an average of N713 on feeding daily). Again, this clearly shows that almost all of the respondents that participated in the poll spend more than N160 (the equivalent of US$1) on their feeding each day. Surprisingly, the national average of N713 spent on food each day did not present any significant difference on whether respondents live in rural or urban areas. Although, as expected more people living in rural areas spend less on their daily feeding; and more people in urban areas spend more than the national average on their food. Further analysis across geo-political zones shows that the majority of respondents in the North-East spend below the nationwide average of N713 (an average of N555). Also, the majority of people living in Southern Nigeria (South-South, South-East and South-West) spend more than the national average of N713. In particular, the South-South has the highest proportion of people (17%) who spend the most on their daily feeding (above N1898). Even though it is a paltry 2%, the North-West has the highest number of people that spend below the $1 mark on their feeding. Nationwide, less than 1% of the respondents actually spend below the $1 mark on their feeding daily. Considering that the costs of shelter, clothing and transport have not been added to this analysis it becomes clear the assertion that 61% of Nigerians live on less than $1 a day becomes questionable. In conclusion, results indicate that, on the assumption that Nigerians eat at least once a day, only about 2 in 10 Nigerians (19%) live on less than a dollar-a-day; while about 80% live above the poverty threshold. Furthermore, on the assumption that Nigerians eat at least three times a day, the results indicate that the majority of Nigerians spend an average of N713 ($4.5) on their feeding each day; and less than 1% of Nigerians actually live on less than US$1 a day. Finally, bearing in mind that the costs of shelter, clothing and transportation have not been added to these analyses, it becomes clear that the assertion that 61% of Nigerians live on less than US$1 a day is questionable, and calls for further investigation and review of the dollar-a-day poverty threshold. [1] Nigeria Poverty Profile 2010 [2] Sachs, Jeffrey D. The End of Poverty 2005 [3] Dollar benchmark: The rise of the $1-a-day statistic. BBC News About Us NOI Polls Limited is Nigeria’s leading opinion polling and research organisation, which works in technical partnership with the Gallup Organisation (USA), to conduct periodic opinion polls and studies on various socio-economic and political issues in Nigeria. More information is available at www.noi-polls.com Disclaimer This press release has been produced by NOI Polls Limited to provide information on all issues which form the subject matter of the document. Kindly note that while we are willing to share results from our polls with the general public, we only request that NOI Polls be acknowledged as author whenever our poll results are used, cited or published. NOI Polls hereby certifies that all the views expressed in this document accurately reflect its views of respondents surveyed for the poll, and background information is based on information from various sources that it believes are reliable; however, no representation is made that it is accurate or complete. Whilst reasonable care has been taken in preparing this document, no responsibility or liability is accepted for errors or fact or for any views expressed herein by NOI Polls for actions taken as a result of information provided in this report. Any ratings, forecasts, estimates, opinions or views herein constitute a judgment as at the date of this document. If the date of this document is not current, the views and content may not reflect NOI Polls’ current findings and/or thinking. Press Contact The Editor Email: editor@noi-polls.com
- Quarter 2, 2017; The NOIPolls Personal Well-Being Index at 65.4 Points
Abuja, Nigeria. July 18th, 2017 – The Portfolio of Indices report released by NOIPolls Limited for Q2, 2017 has revealed that the NOIPolls Personal Well-Being Index (PWBI) which remained almost the same as in Q1 stood at 65.4-points; with a slight increase by 0.1-point from Q1 2017. This figure infers that Nigerians are somewhat satisfied with their well-being. An in-depth analysis of the seven components that make up the PWBI Index showed that in Q2, only four indices (standard of living, personal security, religion and economic situation) experienced an increase while the remaining indicators experienced a decrease when compared to results obtained in Q1, 2017. These are the key highlights fromthe Q2, 2017 Portfolio of Indices Press Release. In February 2014, NOIPolls Limited introduced its portfolio of indices; the NOIPolls Personal Well-Being Index (PWBI), the NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) and the NOIPolls Eagle 30 Business Confidence Index (EBCI). The NOIPolls Personal Well-Being Index measures factors impacting on the lives of everyday Nigerians; thereby producing a complete view of the individual’s personal well-being. The NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index provides consumer assessments of the economic situation and their intentions and expectations for the future. The NOIPolls Eagle 30 Business Confidence Index measures business leaders’ perceptions and expectations about the Nigerian business environment using the top 30 companies in the country. Nigerian businesses, financial and government agencies largely depend on the perceptions and micro assessment of consumers’ expectation in making decisions. At best, they draw conclusions on the business environment based on information from their immediate surroundings while the minorities conduct surveys that are time and money consuming. However, the introduction of these indices provides indicators that will ensure stakeholders can detect and respond to changes in consumer behaviour, the economy, and the business environment in Nigeria. This report presents the Q2, 2017 results for the NOIPolls Personal Well Being Index (PWBI). THE NOIPOLLS PERSONAL WELL-BEING INDEX (PWBI) The NOIPolls Personal Well-Being Index, for Q2, 2017 stood at 65.4-points from 65.3-points in Q1, 2017, showing a negligible increase of 0.1-point. The Personal Well-Being Index is a combination of the level of satisfaction of Nigerians in seven aspects of life. Analysis of the level of satisfaction of Nigerians in these 7 indicators showed that Nigerians are mostly satisfied with their personal Religion (90.4-points), Social Interaction (78.5-points) and personal Health (77.5-points). On the other hand, Nigerians maintained a neutral stance in their Personal Security (69.1-points), Achievement in Life (52.8-points) and Standard of Living (51.3-points). The Economic Situation index (40.5-points) represents the lowest of all the indices of the PWBI for Q2, 2017 as it has always been, although it experienced an increase of 1.6-points from Q1 2017. This implies a slight improvement in the personal economic situation of Nigerians although they are generally not satisfied with this aspect of their lives. Also it is worthy to note that 4 out of the 7 indicators experienced an increase in Q2, 2017; the Economic index had the highest increase of 1.6-point while the Achievements in life index had the highest decline of 0.9-point in the same quarter. Personal Standard of Living Index – 51.3 The Personal Standard of Living Index experienced a slight increase of 0.8-point in Q2, 2017 from 50.5-points in Q1, 2017 to stand at 51.3-points. This indicates a marginal increase in the satisfaction of Nigerians with their current standard of living. Personal Health index – 77.5 Although the index experienced a slight decrease of 0.6-point to stand at 77.5-points, it still depicts that Nigerians are satisfied with their Personal Health in Q2 2017. Personal Achievement Index – 52.8 This index revealed that Nigerians are neutral in terms of their personal achievement as it experienced a decline of 0.9-points (representing the highest decline in Q2, 2017). It went down from 53.7-points in Q1, 2017 to 52.8-points in Q2, 2017. Personal Security Index – 69.1 The Q2, 2017 Personal Security Index experienced an increase by 0.8-point to stand at 69.1-points in Q2, 2017. This indicates that Nigerians are somewhat satisfied with their personal security. Personal Social Interaction Index – 78.5 This index experienced a little decrease of 0.6-point from the Q1, 2017 to stand at 78.5-points in Q2, 2017; denoting that Nigerians are still very much satisfied with their social interaction regardless of the challenges in the country. Personal Religion Index – 90.4 Analysis has always shown that Nigerians are contented with their religious belief because the Personal Religion Index has constantly been the highest index in the PWBI results. In Q2, 2017, it remained almost the same with Q1, with a slight 0.1-point increase to stand at 90.4-points from 90.3-points obtained in the previous quarter. Personal Economic Index – 40.5 The Personal Economic Index for Q2, 2017 experienced an increase of 1.6-points to stand at 40.5-points. This slight increase infers that Nigerians perceived that their economic situation is a little better than what it used to be in Q1, 2017. Although, when this index is compared to the overall sub-components that made up the PWBI, it is the lowest and could mean that there is a low level of satisfaction in the personal economic situation of the Nigerian populace. TREND ANALYSIS Trend analysis revealed that four indicators that constitute the PWBI experienced an increase in Q2, 2017 while the remaining three experienced a decline. The data trend also indicated Personal Economic situation as the index which experienced the greatest increase with 1.6-points in Q2, 2017. Additionally, a comparison of the quarter-on-quarter analysis results between Q1, 2017 and Q2, 2017 showed that the NOIPolls PWBI increased to 65.4-points in Q2, 2017 from 65.3 points obtained in Q1, 2017 depicting a 0.1-point difference. An in-depth analysis of the monthly findings in Q2, 2017 revealed that the NOIPolls PWBI was highest in the month of May at 65.6-points and lowest in the month of April at 64.6-points, bringing the average mean for the PWBI in Q2, 2017 to 65.2-points. In conclusion, current findings have shown that the NOIPolls PWBI increased by 0.1-point to stand at 65.4-points in Q2, 2017. Four of the individual indicators that make-up the PWBI (Economic index, Religion index, Personal security index and the Standard of living index) experienced an increase; while the remaining three (Social interaction index, Achievements in life index and Personal Health index) experienced a decline. Additionally, the difference in the PWBI results from Q1, 2017 (65.3-points) is insignificant when compared to the results obtained in Q2, 2017 (65.4-points); implying that Nigerians are still somewhat satisfied with their personal well-being in Q2 2017. But the constant low points of the Economic situation index calls for the current administration to harness all the possible means that would proffer better living condition for the citizens of Nigeria. Survey Methods The Personal Well Being Index Poll was conducted in Quarter 2, 2017. The PWBI involved telephone interviews of a random nationwide sample. 3,000 randomly selected phone-owning Nigerians aged 18 years and above, representing the six geopolitical zones in the country, were interviewed. With a sample of this size, we can say with 95% confidence that the results obtained are statistically precise – within a range of plus or minus 3%. NOIPolls Limited, No1 for country specific polling services in West Africa. We conduct periodic opinion polls and studies on various socio-economic and political issues in Nigeria. More information is available at www.noi-polls.com ,you can also download our mobile app NOIPolls on your smartphone. Disclaimer This press release has been produced by NOIPolls Limited to provide information on all issues which form the subject matter of the document. Kindly note that while we are willing to share results from our polls with the general public, we only request that NOIPolls be acknowledged as author whenever and wherever our poll results are used, cited or published. NOIPolls hereby certifies that all the views expressed in this document accurately reflect its views of respondents surveyed for the poll, and background information is based on information from various sources that it believes are reliable; however, no representation is made that it is accurate or complete. Whilst reasonable care has been taken in preparing this document, no responsibility or liability is accepted for errors or fact or for any views expressed herein by NOIPolls for actions taken as a result of information provided in this report. Any ratings, forecasts, estimates, opinions or views herein constitute a judgment as at the date of this document. If the date of this document is not current, the views and content may not reflect NOIPolls’ current findings and/or thinking. Press Contact The Editor Email: editor@noi-polls.com
- Security and Job Creation; Top Key Issues Nigerians Want the President to Focus On In 2015
Abuja, Nigeria. January 13th, 2015 The Annual New Year Special Edition Snap Poll conducted by NOIPolls revealed that most Nigerians (81%) indicated they experienced enjoyable holidays over Christmas and New Year and this proportion has increased over the past 3 years. In addition, most Nigerians stayed back at their respective places of residence to enjoy the Christmas and New Year holidays instead of travelling. However, the reverse was the case for the larger proportion of the South-East residents who utilized the holidays to travel to various locations (69%). This probably stimulated a more positive experience as 61% of South East residents confirmed their holiday was very enjoyable. Given the general increase in prices of goods and services which mostly characterizes festive periods in Nigeria, the slight majority (52%) of Nigerians who travelled for the festive holidays reported a rise in the cost of transportation; although this was a slight decline in the proportion of Nigerians who were affected by this from the previous year 2014. Also the larger proportion of Nigerians (69%) who travelled reported an improvement in the roads when asked to evaluate their experiences with the Nigerian roads during their journey; this however indicates a 6-point decline from 2014. In an assessment of the state of security across the country during the holidays, most Nigerians reported the environment where they spent the holidays as ‘peaceful and secure’, although a considerable proportion of the North-East residents considered their environment ‘peaceful but not secure’ and ‘tense and insecure’ during the holiday. Finally, in areas for focus by the President in 2015, most Nigerians would like the President to focus on‘Security’ especially in the North East region, followed by ‘Job Creation’ and ‘Electricity’. While Job Creation was top priority to Nigerians in 2013 and 2014, Security has become paramount for Nigerians given its current state and ill effect in the nation. Survey Background and Objectives The New Year celebration in Nigeria is one of the most important and prominently celebrated events in the country often characterized by diverse activities such as the Lagos State Countdown which ushered in the New Year. One would clearly draw a precise picture of the rich heritage, culture, custom and tradition of the country during the time of New Year.[1][1] While Nigerians ushered in 2015 with great excitement and optimism as well as resolutions to be better individuals, great expectations also lies in the government to focus on key areas to create desired socio-economic changes that would stimulate development of the nation as well as affect the lives of the citizens positively while making the year a remarkable one. One of which would generally be in the aspect of security given its current state in the country especially in the Northeast zone.[2][2] Against this background, NOIPolls conducted its Annual New Year Special Edition Snap Poll to explore the experiences of Nigerians during the Christmas and New Year holidays, as well as gauge their expectations for 2015. This is the third in the series of New Year polls following those conducted in 2013 and 2014. Survey Methodology The New Year opinion poll involving telephone interviews of a random nationwide sample was conducted in the week of January 6th 2015. Proportionate random sampling was used to select 1,000 phone-owning Nigerians aged 18 years and above, representing the six geopolitical zones in the country. With a sample of this size, we can say with 95% confidence that the results obtained are statistically precise – within a range of plus or minus 3%. The interviews were conducted in English, Pidgin English, Hausa, Igbo and Yoruba in order to reduce non-response bias in the sample. Survey Results Respondents to the poll were asked six specific questions and this section presents detailed survey findings from these questions. Festive Season Experience With the aim of exploring the experiences of Nigerians during the festive season, respondents were asked: In general, how would you describe your Christmas and New Year holiday? Findings revealed the majority of Nigerians 81% (43%+38%) enjoyed the Christmas and New Year holiday describing it as either very enjoyable or enjoyable. This cuts across all regions and age-groups as shown in figure 1 with the South-East zone having the largest proportion of residents that confirmed their holiday was very enjoyable (61%). In addition, 12% of Nigerians reported their holiday was okay and 7% (6%+1%) indicated it was not enjoyable with the South-South accounting for the largest proportion of respondents in this category (10%). Trend analysis reveals that the proportion of Nigerians that experienced an enjoyable Christmas and New Year holiday has increased steadily over the 3 year period to 81% in 2015 compared to 79% in 2014 and 62% in2013. Travelling During the Christmas and New Year Holidays Next, respondents were asked: Did you travel for the Christmas and New Year holidays? Responses show that most Nigerians did not travel during the holidays (64%) while 36% confirmed they traveled to various locations during the festive holidays which witnessed a high proportion of residents from the South –East zone (69%) confirming they had travelled. Furthermore, there was a 7-point increase in the proportion of Nigerians who travelled during the festive holidays (36%) as opposed to 29% who had indicated they had plans to travel as revealed in the NOIPolls Annual Special End of Year poll.[1][3] Similarly, a 3-year trend revealed a 6-point drop in the proportion of Nigerians that travelled during the 2015festive season compared with the previous year 2014. Transportation Cost during the Holidays Festive periods in Nigeria are generally characterized by increases in the prices of goods and services and to assess if this was the case for the cost of transportation, respondents who travelled during the festive holidays(36% of the total) were asked: Did you experience any increase in the cost of transportation during the holidays? Findings revealed that slightly more than half of Nigerians (52%) who traveled during the festive holidays experienced an increase in the cost of transportation. Again this was mostly experienced by residents of the South-East region as a higher proportion of Nigerians in this region travelled during the holidays. Further analysis by age revealed that respondents aged 18-29 years reported an increase in the cost of transportation during the festive holidays more than any other age-group. Trend analysis revealed a slight 3-point decline in the proportion of Nigerians who reported they experienced an increase in the cost of transportation during the 2014/2015 festive holidays compared with the previous year. State Of Nigerian Roads With the aim of evaluating the current state of Nigerian roads, respondents who travelled (36% of the total) were further asked: Compared to previous years, how would you describe the state of Nigerian roads while travelling for the holiday? Survey findings revealed that the larger share of Nigerians that travelled (40%) indicated that the state of Nigerian roads has ‘Improved a little’ compared to previous years. On the other hand, 29% of Nigerians indicated that the roads has ‘improved very much’ while 15% of Nigerians claimed that ‘There’s no difference at all’ on the roads. Analyzing by age-group, the majority of Nigerians who are of the opinion that Nigerian roads ‘has improved a little’ were within the age bracket 61 years and above. Also, respondents that are of the opinion the roads have improved very much were mostly within the ages 30-45 years. Also, the majority of Nigerians that consider the roads as ‘very bad’ or ‘no difference at all’ in its state compared to the preceding years are within the age bracket 18-21 years and 46-60 years respectively. Meanwhile, analyzing by geo-political zone, South-West has the highest proportion of Nigerians who consider the roads to have improved very much. While North-west has the largest percentage of Nigerians that believe the Nigerian road has remained bad since the previous years. Trend analysis on the state of Nigerian roads reveals the proportion of Nigerians who indicated the roads to have improved very much increased by 16-points in 2014 and declined by 2-points in 2015. Similarly, this applies to the proportion of Nigerians who indicated no difference at all on the state of Nigerian roads with a 7-pointsdecline in 2014 and a 4-points increase in 2015. On the hand, the proportion of Nigerians who indicated the roads ‘have improved a little’ declined by 9-pointsin 2014 and further declined by 4-points in 2015. While, the proportion of Nigerians that indicated the roads have ‘remained bad’ compared to the previous years, increased by 4- points in 2014 and further increased by2-points in 2015. Meanwhile, the proportion of Nigerians who consider the state of the Nigerian roads as being‘very bad or has gone worse’ declined by 4-points in 2014 and has remained stable till date. This findings therefore indicates that while there was significant improvement on the Nigerian roads from 2013 to 2014, there has little or no improvement in their current state State of Security across Nigeria during the Festive Holiday With the aim of assessing the security state of Nigerians’ residence, respondents were asked: How would you describe the state of security where you spent the Holiday? Findings from the survey revealed that most Nigerians (85%) found the location where they spent the holidays ‘peaceful and secure’. Furthermore, 10%indicated that their environment was ‘peaceful but not secure’while 5% described it as ‘tense and insecure’. Across the geo-political zones, the North-Central has the largest proportion of Nigerians who indicated having a ‘peaceful and a secure’ environment during the holiday (96%). Meanwhile, North-East has the largest proportion of residents that indicated having a ‘peaceful but not secure’ environment (22%) and those that indicated it was a ‘tense and insecure’ (14%). Trend analysis on the state of security reveals a 15-points increase in 2014 and a slight 2-points decline in2015 in the number of Nigerians who indicated having a ‘peaceful and secure’ environment during the holiday. In general, this implies that most Nigerians still believe that their environment is ‘peaceful and secure’ even though the proportion of Nigerians dropped slightly in 2015. Meanwhile, the proportion of Nigerians that indicated having a ‘peaceful but not secure’ environment declined by 11-points in 2014, and further declined by 1-point in 2015. In addition to this, the number of Nigerians that claimed to have a ‘tense and insecure’ environment during the holiday dropped by 3-points in 2014 and then increased by 3-points in 2015. Key Areas Nigerians want the President to Focus On In a bid to ascertain the opinion of the public on the key areas that needs to be focused on in 2015, respondents were asked: What are the three key areas you would like the President to focus his attention to this year 2015? Survey findings revealed that the 3 key areas Nigerians would like the president to focus on are ‘Security’(25%), followed by ‘Job creation’ (15%) and ‘Electricity’ (13%). Across geo-political zones, the northern region particularly the North-East, has the highest proportion of Nigerians that indicated ‘security’ as a key area the President needs to focus on in 2015. This is not surprising considering the spate of terrorist attacks in North –East region towards the end of 2014. Also, North-East zone has the highest proportion of Nigerians that indicated ‘Electricity’ as a key area that needs attention. On the other hand, South-South residents indicated‘Job Creation’ as an area that needs the President’s attention. Yearly trend analysis on the key areas the government needs to focus attention on reveals that while ‘Job creation’ and Electricity were of priority to Nigerians in 2013 and 2014, ‘Security’ has become paramount for Nigerians in 2015 due its current state and ill effects in the nation. Though ‘Job creation’ and ‘Electricity are still of great importance to Nigerians in 2015, however attention on these have decreased over the years. Conclusion The Annual New Year Special Edition Poll released by NOIPolls revealed that most Nigerians (81%) enjoyed the festive holidays. A three (3)-year trend analysis revealed that more Nigerians reported they experienced an enjoyable Christmas and New Year holiday in 2015 (81%) than in 2014 (79%). More findings revealed that most (64%) Nigerians did not travel during the festive holidays while 36% of Nigerians especially South-East residents (69%) confirmed they traveled to various locations during the festive holidays. The slight majority of Nigerians who travelled for the festive holidays reported an increase in the cost of transportation; they also reported an improvement in Nigerian roads. Furthermore findings from the poll revealed that most Nigerians found the environment where they spent the holidays very ‘peaceful and secure’. Though, the North-East region has the largest proportion of residents that indicated ‘peaceful but not secure’ and ‘tense and insecure’environments during the holiday. Finally, an assessment of the key areas of focus for the President revealed that most Nigerians would like the President to focus on ‘Security’ especially in theNorth-East region, followed by‘Job Creation’ and ‘Electricity’ in 2015.
- The NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index at 64.8-points in Quarter 2, 2017
Abuja, Nigeria. July 25th, 2017 – The Portfolio of Indices report released by NOIPolls for Q2, 2017 revealed that the NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) stood at 64.8-points in Q2 2017; this represents a slight increase of 2.1-points when compared with 62.7-points obtained in Q1, 2017. The Consumer Confidence Index reveals consumers’ tendencies to spend, which is directly proportional to their expectations for a general improvement in the country’s economic conditions, employment opportunities, personal financial strength and stability in the prices of goods and services. This slight leap in the confidence of consumers in Nigeria could have influenced their propensity to purchase with a degree of optimism about the overall state of the economy. This optimism could be linked to some improvements in policies in recent times which has propelled the nation’s economy into the path of recovery in Q2, 2017, although, in a slow pace. Some of the policies include improvement in foreign exchange, Ease of Doing Business, the Executive Orders, amongst others according to The Business Confidence Monitor (BCM) that was released recently by the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG)[1]. In addition, there are two variables that make up the CCI; the Present Situation Index (PSI) and the Expectation Index (EI). The PSI and the EI both experienced an increase of 3.8-points and 0.9-point respectively when compared to the result obtained in Q1, 2017. These are the key highlights from the Q2, 2017 Portfolio of Indices Press Release. In February 2014, NOIPolls introduced its portfolio of indices; the NOIPolls Personal Well-Being Index (PWBI), the NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) and the NOIPolls Eagle 30 Business Confidence Index (EBCI). The NOIPolls Personal Well-Being Index measures factors impacting on the lives of everyday Nigerians; thereby producing a complete view of the individual’s personal well-being. The NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index provides consumer assessments of the economic situation and their intentions and expectations for the future. The NOIPolls Eagle 30 Business Confidence Index measures business leaders’ perceptions and expectations about the Nigerian business environment using the top 30 companies in the country. Nigerian businesses, financial and government agencies largely depend on their perceptions and micro assessment of consumers’ expectation in making decisions. At best, they draw conclusions on the business environment based on information from their immediate surroundings while the minorities conduct surveys that are time and money consuming. However, the introduction of these indices provides indicators that will ensure stakeholders can detect and respond to changes in consumer behaviour, the economy, and the business environment in Nigeria. This report presents the Q2, 2017 results for the NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index (CCI). THE NOIPOLLS CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX (CCI) The NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) in Q2, 2017, experienced an increase of 2.1-points to stand at 64.8-points. This indicates a slight increase in confidence among consumers in the country, propelled by assurance in their financial stance in relation to the expectation of the country’s economic situation, and it could be used by stakeholders to obtain qualitative information on key leading economic indicators such as investment, prices, demand conditions, employment etc. to make informed decisions. The 2 independent variables that consist of the NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index; the Present Situation Index (PSI) and Expectation Index (EI) both experienced an increase in Q2, 2017. The PSI increased with 3.8-points from 34.3-points in Q1, 2017 to stand at 38.1-points in Q2, 2017, while the EI also increased with 0.9-point from 84.0-points in Q1, 2017 to stand at 84.9-points in Q2, 2017. The PSI measures general consumer thoughts in relation to the present economic situation, while the EI evaluates the overall consumer sentiments toward the short-term future economic situation. The PSI and the EI are made up of a total of 7 variables and all these variables experienced an increase except the Expected Total Family Income Index which experienced a decline while the Expected Employment Condition Index remained the same. These are highlighted below. Current Economic Situation Index–42.2 The Current Economic Situation Index increased from 39.5-points in Q1, 2017 to 42.2-points in Q2, 2017. Although this index experienced an increase of 2.7-points, it still indicates that consumers are somewhat not satisfied with the country’s Current Economic Situation. Expectation of the Country’s Economic Situation Index –94.4 The Expectation of the Country’s Economic situation index is one of the highest indices and it increased by 0.9-point from 93.5-points obtained in Q1, 2017 to stand at 94.4-points. This portrays a high optimism about the improvement in the country’s economic situation. Current Employment Condition Index – 53.4 The Current Employment Condition improved from the average (50-points) position in Q1, 2017 to stand at 53.4-points in Q2, 2017 representing a significant 3.4-points increase. Expected Employment Condition Index – 98.4 The Expected Employment Condition Index remained the same (98.4-points) as the result obtained in Q1, 2017, signifying that Nigerians are still optimistic in terms of their expected employment condition. Current Prices of Goods and Services Index – 18.8 The Current Prices of Goods and Services Index experienced the highest increase of 5.3-points in this quarter to stand at 18.8-points from 13.5-points recorded in Q1, 2017. Though, it remained the lowest index, the increase observed in Q2, 2017 revealed negativity in the country’s market developments, meaning thatprices of goods and services are increasing. Expectation of Prices of Goods and Services Index – 79.58 The Expectation of Prices of Goods and Services Index increased by 3.6-points from 76-points in Q1, 2017 to stand at 79.6-points in Q2, 2017 and this shows that consumers are optimistic that there will be a reduction in prices of the goods and services in the future. Expected Total Family Income Index – 67.1 The Expected Total Family Income Index is the only variable that experienced a decline of 0.8-point to stand at 67.1-points. This assumes that consumers are, to some degree, sceptical about their expected total family income which is capable of weakening the spending powers of consumers. TREND ANALYSIS Trend analysis showed that the PSI increased by 3.8-points to stand at 38.1-points in Q2, 2017, while the EI also increased by 0.9-point to stand at 84.9-points in Q2, 2017. The increase experienced by these 2 components influenced the increase in the overall CCI. In conclusion, the NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index increased by 2.1-points to stand at 64.8-points. Correspondingly, the two independent variables that make up the CCI, the Present Situation Index (PSI) and the Expectation Index (EI) both experienced an increase of 3.8-points and 0.9-point respectively in Q2, 2017. This slight increase infers that consumers’ confidence is gradually improving and this may have been driven by improved efficiency in economic management of the country. Therefore, the Federal Government should do its best at sustaining its effort to ease the business environment, make credit available to the real sector and to also continue and intensify its ongoing quest to diversify the economy beyond relying on oil exports so as to stimulate more economic activities in the country. Survey Methods The Consumer Confidence Index Poll was conducted in Quarter 2, 2017. The CCI involved telephone interviews of a random nationwide sample. 3,000 randomly selected phone-owning Nigerians aged 18 years and above, representing the six geopolitical zones in the country, were interviewed. With a sample of this size, we can say with 95% confidence that the results obtained are statistically precise – within a range of plus or minus 3%. NOIPolls Limited, No1 for country specific polling services in West Africa. We conduct periodic opinion polls and studies on various socio-economic and political issues in Nigeria. More information is available at www.noi-polls.com or you can download our mobile app NOIPolls on your smartphone. Disclaimer This press release has been produced by NOIPolls Limited to provide information on all issues which form the subject matter of the document. Kindly note that while we are willing to share results from our polls with the general public, we only request that NOIPolls be acknowledged as author whenever and wherever our poll results are used, cited or published. NOIPolls hereby certifies that all the views expressed in this document accurately reflect its views of respondents surveyed for the poll, and background information is based on information from various sources that it believes are reliable; however, no representation is made that it is accurate or complete. Whilst reasonable care has been taken in preparing this document, no responsibility or liability is accepted for errors or fact or for any views expressed herein by NOIPolls for actions taken as a result of information provided in this report. Any ratings, forecasts, estimates, opinions or views herein constitute a judgment as at the date of this document. If the date of this document is not current, the views and content may not reflect NOIPolls’ current findings and/or thinking. Press Contact The Editor Email: editor@noi-polls.com [1] https://www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2017/06/04/business-undeterred-by-sluggish-q1-performance/
- The NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index at 62.7-points for Quarter 1, 2017
Abuja, Nigeria. April 11th, 2017 – The Portfolio of Indices report released by NOIPolls Limited for Q1, 2017 has revealed that the NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) experienced a 4.6-point increase to stand at 62.7-points.The Consumer Confidence Index is an indicator designed to measure the amount of optimism that consumers have on the state of the economy which is usually expressed by either spending or saving. This current figure indicates that consumers’ degree of confidence about the overall state of the economy in relation to their personal financial situation may have slightly improved. There is no doubt that the intervention of the Central Bank of Nigeria in the foreign exchange market has influenced the general positive attitude of consumers; given that consumers rationally base their decisions on the general outlook of some economic variables such as, inflation rate, interest rate, exchange rate, unemployment rate, etc. Furthermore, the Present Situation Index (PSI), which is one of the two independent variables that make up the CCI, experienced an increase of 10.7-points to stand at 34.3-points, while the other, the Expectation Index (EI) remained the same at 84.-points. Also, all the indicators that constitute the PSI and the EI experienced an increase except the Expected Total Family Income Index which declined by 4.2-points to stand at 67.9-points. The Present Economic Situation Index experienced the highest increase of 14.1-points and this contributed to the overall increase of the CCI. These are the key highlights from the Q1, 2017 Portfolio of Indices Press Release. In February 2014, NOIPolls Limited introduced its portfolio of indices; the NOIPolls Personal Well-Being Index (PWBI), the NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) and the NOIPolls Eagle 30 Business Confidence Index (EBCI). The NOIPolls Personal Well-Being Index measures factors impacting on the lives of everyday Nigerians; thereby producing a complete view of the individual’s personal well-being. The NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index provides consumer assessments of the economic situation and their intentions and expectations for the future. The NOIPolls Eagle 30 Business Confidence Index measures business leaders’ perceptions and expectations about the Nigerian business environment using the top 30 companies in the country. Nigerian businesses, financial and government agencies largely depend on their perceptions and micro assessment of consumers’ expectation in making decisions. At best, they draw conclusion on the business environment based on information from their immediate surroundings while the minorities conduct surveys that are time and money consuming. However, the introduction of these indices provides indicators that will ensure stakeholders can detect and respond to changes in consumer behavior, the economy, and the business environment in Nigeria. This report presents the Q1, 2017 results for the NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index (CCI). THE NOIPOLLS CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX (CCI) In Q1, 2017, the NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) experienced an increase of 4.6-points to stand at 62.7-points. This significant increase in the consumer confidence could infer that Nigerians are expected to increase their purchases of goods and services, thus, manufacturers may increase production and stocks whereas, large organisations may increase employment rates, government may also expect improved tax revenues based on the increase in consumer spending. Therefore, it is advised that businesses, economic analysts, investors and the Government take advantage of this increase in consumer confidence though with caution because the CCI may adjust dramatically on the day the Index is released. However, this will probably only happen if there is a lot of uncertainty about the economy. The NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index consists of 2 independent variables; the Present Situation Index (PSI) and Expectation Index (EI). The PSI measures general consumer thoughts in relation to the present economic situation and in Q1 2017, the PSI stood at 46.9-points. While the EI, which evaluates the overall consumer sentiments toward the short-term future economic situation, stood at 84.9-points in the same period. The PSI and the EI are made up of a total of 7 variables and all these variables experienced an increase except the Expected Total Family Income Index which experienced a decline. These are highlighted below; Current Economic Situation Index – 39.5 Consumers experienced a significant increase in the current economic situation. The Current Economic Index in Q1, 2017 rebounded to 39.5-points with an impressive 14.1-points increase from Q4, 2016. Expectation of the Country’s Economic Situation Index – 93.5 The expectation of the country’s economic situation index slightly increased by 0.01-point to stand at 93.5-points. This suggests that Nigerians have a high degree of confidence that the current economic situation will improve. Current Employment Condition Index – 50 Current figures revealed a significant increase in their current Employment Condition. This is evidenced by the 8.6-points increase from Q4, 2016. Expected Employment Condition Index – 98.4 Expected Employment Condition Index increased by 0.7-points to stand as the highest rated index in Q1, 2017. This infers that Nigerians are very positive of better employment opportunities in the future. Current Prices of Goods and Services Index – 13.5 This index also increased by 0.6-points to stand at 13.5-points in Q1, 2017. This indicates that consumers perceived the prices of goods and services to be high. Expectation of Prices of Goods and Services Index – 76 The Expectation of Prices of Goods and Services Index increased by 3.1-points to stand at 76-points. This shows that consumers are optimistic that there will be a reduction in prices of the goods and services in the future. Expected Total Family Income Index – 67.9 The Expected Total Family Income Index declined by 4.2-points to stand at 67.9-points. This infers that consumers are somewhat neutral about their expected total family income in comparison with their spending pattern. TREND ANALYSIS Trend analysis revealed that the PSI increased by 10.7-points to stand at 34.3-points, while the EI remained the same (84-points) with Q4, 2016. The increase experienced by the PSI implies that the spending powers of consumers may have been boosted. In conclusion, the NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index increased by 4.6-points to stand at 62.7-points. Also, one of the two independent variables that make up the CCI, the Present Situation Index (PSI), experienced an increase of 10.7-points while the Expectation Index (EI) remained the same in Q1, 2017. Finally, while the CBN forex intervention may have influenced the CCI positively, it is recommended that an in-depth plan should be made to sustain the intervention, while long term plans and policies are implemented to revitalize the economy. Survey Methods The Consumer Confidence Index Poll was conducted in Quarter 1, 2017. The CCI involved telephone interviews of a random nationwide sample. 3,000 randomly selected phone-owning Nigerians aged 18 years and above, representing the six geopolitical zones in the country, were interviewed. With a sample of this size, we can say with 95% confidence that the results obtained are statistically precise – within a range of plus or minus 3%. NOIPolls Limited, No1 for country specific polling services in West Africa. We conduct periodic opinion polls and studies on various socio-economic and political issues in Nigeria. More information is available at www.noi-polls.com, you can also download NOIPolls Mobile App from the Google and Apple Playstore. Disclaimer This press release has been produced by NOIPolls Limited to provide information on all issues which form the subject matter of the document. Kindly note that while we are willing to share results from our polls with the general public, we only request that NOIPolls be acknowledged as author whenever and wherever our poll results are used, cited or published. NOIPolls hereby certifies that all the views expressed in this document accurately reflect its views of respondents surveyed for the poll, and background information is based on information from various sources that it believes are reliable; however, no representation is made that it is accurate or complete. Whilst reasonable care has been taken in preparing this document, no responsibility or liability is accepted for errors or fact or for any views expressed herein by NOIPolls for actions taken as a result of information provided in this report. Any ratings, forecasts, estimates, opinions or views herein constitute a judgment as at the date of this document. If the date of this document is not current, the views and content may not reflect NOIPolls’ current findings and/or thinking. Press Contact The Editor Email: editor@noi-polls.com
- Quarter 4, 2016: The NOIPolls Personal Well Being Index Declined By 0.5 Point, While The Consumer Co
Abuja, Nigeria. January 24th, 2017 –The Portfolio of Indices report released by NOIPolls Limited for Q4, 2016 has revealed that the NOIPolls Personal Well-Being Index (PWBI) decreased by 0.5-point to stand at 64.4-points, while the overall year average for the PWBI in 2016 stood at 64.5-points. The Personal Well-Being Index evaluates the quality of lives of Nigerians which includes people’s emotional responses, satisfaction with various aspects of their lives, and a general judgment of life’s quality. Further findings showed that out of the seven indicators that make up the PWBI, only three indices (standard of Living, social Interaction and religion) experienced an increase while the remaining indicators experienced a decrease when compared to results obtained Q3, 2016. Comparatively, the NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) increased by 1.3-points to stand at 58.1-points in Q4, 2016. The CCI is an important economic indicator that studies the spending and saving intention of consumers after they must have evaluated the various assurances they have on the country’s economic status in relation with their individual monetary status. Therefore, the increase experienced could be indicative that there was a higher probability for consumers to have spent more in Q4 than in Q3, moreover, the last month of Q4 is a period were consumers tend to spend more during the end of year festivities. In addition, the two independent variables of the CCI; the Present Situation Index (PSI) and the Expectation Index (EI) both experienced an increase. The Present Situation Index experienced an increase of 2.5-points to stand at 23.6-points while the Expectation Index (EI) increased by 0.5-point to stand at 84-points.This report presents the Q4, 2016 results for the NOIPolls Personal Well-Being Index (PWBI) and NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index (CCI). In February 2014, NOIPolls Limited introduced its portfolio of indices; the NOIPolls Personal Well-Being Index (PWBI), the NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) and the NOIPolls Eagle 30 Business Confidence Index (EBCI). The NOIPolls Personal Well-Being Index measures factors impacting on the lives of everyday Nigerians; thereby producing a complete view of the individual’s personal well-being. The NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index provides consumer assessments of the economic situation and their intentions and expectations for the future. The NOIPolls Eagle 30 Business Confidence Index measures business leaders’ perceptions and expectations about the Nigerian business environment using the top 30 companies in the country. Nigerian businesses, financial and government agencies largely depend on their perceptions and micro assessment of consumers’ expectation in making decisions. At best, they draw conclusion on the business environment based on information from their immediate surroundings while the minorities conduct surveys that are time and money consuming. However, the introduction of these indices provides indicators that will ensure stakeholders can detect and respond to changes in consumer behavior, the economy, and the business environment in Nigeria. This report presents the Q4, 2016 results for the NOIPolls Personal Well-Being Index (PWBI) and NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index (CCI). The NOIPolls Personal Well-Being Index (PWBI) Results from the NOIPolls Personal Well-Being Index (PWBI) in Q4, 2016 showed a decrease of 0.5-point to stand at 64.4-points. Analysis of the diverse components that make up the PWBI revealed some differences in the assessment of Nigerians regarding several attributes of their lives. Outcome of the poll indicated that Nigerians are mostly contented in terms of their ‘Religion’ (89.6-points), ‘Social Interaction’ (79.5-points), and ‘Health’ (76.4-points). Also, Nigerians are somewhat neutral in terms of ‘Personal Security’ (68-points) and ‘Achievement in Life’ (53.3-points) while Nigerians were not satisfied with their ‘Standard of Living’ (49.6-points) and ‘Personal economic’ situation (37.6-points). This poll result has empirically shown that the economic situation Index remained the lowest ranked indicator in 2016. Trend analysis revealed that all the indicators that constitute the PWBI experienced a decrease in Q4, 2016 except the Standard of Living index, Social Interaction index and Religion index which were the only three indices that showed an increase of 0.5-point, 0.6-point and 0.7-point respectively. In addition, findings from quarterly trend analysis revealed that the NOIPolls PWBI had an average yearly mean point of 64.5-points in 2016, with the highest average mean point experienced in Q3, 2016 (64.9-points), whereas the lowest quarterly average was recorded in Q2, with 63.9-points. The NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) The Consumer Confidence Index is an indicator designed to measure the amount of optimism that consumers have on the state of the economy and this is usually expressed by either spending or saving. However, the NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index in Q4, 2016 increased by 1.3-points to stand at 58.1-points. This increase indicates that consumers’ degree of confidence about the overall state of the economy in relation with their personal financial situation may have slightly improved. The NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index consists of 2 independent variables; the Present Situation Index (PSI) and Expectation Index (EI). The PSI measures general consumer thoughts in relation to the present economic situation and in Q4 2016, trend analysis showed that PSI increased by 2.5-points to stand at 23.6-points. While the EI, which evaluates the overall consumer sentiments toward the short-term future economic situation, increased by 0.5-points to 84-points in Q4, 2016. The increment experienced by the two variables, PSI and EI, implies that the spending powers of consumers possibly may have been boostedThe NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index consists of 2 independent variables; the Present Situation Index (PSI) and Expectation Index (EI). The PSI measures general consumer thoughts in relation to the present economic situation and in Q4 2016, trend analysis showed that PSI increased by 2.5-points to stand at 23.6-points. While the EI, which evaluates the overall consumer sentiments toward the short-term future economic situation, increased by 0.5-points to 84-points in Q4, 2016. The increment experienced by the two variables, PSI and EI, implies that the spending powers of consumers possibly may have been boosted. Trend analysis revealed that the whole economic indicators exhibited an increase in Q4, 2016 when compared to Q3, 2016. The PSI increased by 2.5-points while the EI increased by 0.5-point. The overall CCI increased by 1.3-point to stand at 58.1-points in Q4, 2016 when compared to Q3, 2016 which stood at 56.8-points. In conclusion, current results have revealed that the NOIPolls Personal Well-Being Index (PWBI) experienced a decrease of 0.5-point to stand at 64.4-points in Q4, 2016which is indicative of the unsatisfactory lifestyles of Nigerians. On the other hand, the NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index increased by 1.3-point to stand at 58.1-points, meaning that there is the propensity to purchase or spend. Nigeria’s economy slipped into recession in mid-2016[1], hindrances that fuelled this economic downturn ranges from low oil prices in the global market, decreasing oil production (as a result of attacks by militants), scarcity of fuel, power shortages and scarcity of foreign currency. Therefore, the nation urgently requires massive injection of fiscal stimulus which could be aided by using the technical analysis provided in this report as an economic indicator. Finally, the two independent variables of the CCI both experienced an increase; the Present Situation Index (PSI) experienced an increase of 2.5-points while the Expectation Index (EI) increased by 0.5-point, both in Q4, 2016. Survey Methods The Personal Well-Being Index and Consumer Confidence Index Polls were conducted in Q4, 2016. The PWBI involved telephone interviews of a random nationwide sample. 3,000 randomly selected phone-owning Nigerians aged 18 years and above, representing the six geopolitical zones in the country, were interviewed. With a sample of this size, we can say with 95% confidence that the results obtained are statistically precise – within a range of plus or minus 3%. In addition the CCI involved telephone interviews of a random nationwide sample. 3,000 randomly selected phone-owning Nigerians aged 18 years and above, representing the six geopolitical zones in the country, were interviewed. With a sample of this size, we can say with 95% confidence that the results obtained are statistically precise – within a range of plus or minus 2%. NOIPolls Limited, No1 for country specific polling services in West Africa, works in technical partnership with the Gallup Organisation (USA). We conduct periodic opinion polls and studies on various socio-economic and political issues in Nigeria. More information is available at www.noi-polls.com Disclaimer This press release has been produced by NOIPolls Limited to provide information on all issues which form the subject matter of the document. Kindly note that while we are willing to share results from our polls with the general public, we only request that NOIPolls be acknowledged as author whenever and wherever our poll results are used, cited or published. NOIPolls hereby certifies that all the views expressed in this document accurately reflect its views of respondents surveyed for the poll, and background information is based on information from various sources that it believes are reliable; however, no representation is made that it is accurate or complete. Whilst reasonable care has been taken in preparing this document, no responsibility or liability is accepted for errors or fact or for any views expressed herein by NOIPolls for actions taken as a result of information provided in this report. Any ratings, forecasts, estimates, opinions or views herein constitute a judgment as at the date of this document. If the date of this document is not current, the views and content may not reflect NOIPolls’ current findings and/or thinking. Press Contact The Editor Email: editor@noi-polls.com [1] http://www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2016/09/01/nigeria-slips-into-recession-fg-attempts-to-allay-concerns/
- The NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index at 67.5-points in Quarter 3, 2017
Abuja, Nigeria. November 14th, 2017 – The NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index for Q3, 2017 experienced a 2.7-point increase to stand at 67.5-points from 64.8-points in Q2, 2017. This indicates an increase in the degree of optimism of consumers on the state of the economy which is generally expressed through their saving and spending patterns. Therefore, this increase may likely translate to a slight growth in the economy as people have shown a relatively positive attitude towards spending. Although, the quarterly increase in the CCI of 2.7-points is not particularly large, it is sufficient to push the consumer confidence index to its highest point since Q1, 2017. The FBN Capital Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) also revealed an increase of 1.4-points when the average of Q2 (56.3%) is compared to that of Q3 (57.7%) 2017. Additionally, the two independent variables that make up the CCI; the Present Situation Index (PSI) and the Expectation Index (EI) also experienced some changes. The PSI experienced an increase of 6.1-points from the results of Q2, 2017 (38.1-points) to stand at 44.2-points in Q3, 2017. Contrarily, the EI experienced a marginal 0.3-point decrease to stand at 84.6-points. These are the key highlights from the Q3, 2017 Consumer Confidence Index Survey. The NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index provides consumer assessments of the economic situation and their intentions and expectations for the future. The NOIPolls Eagle 30 Business Confidence Index measures business leaders’ perceptions and expectations about the Nigerian business environment using the top 30 companies in the country. Nigerian businesses, financial and government agencies largely depend on these perceptions and micro assessment of consumers’ expectation in making decisions. At best, they draw conclusion on the business environment based on information from their immediate surroundings while the minorities conduct surveys that are time and money consuming. However, the introduction of these indices provides indicators that will ensure stakeholders can detect and respond to changes in consumer behaviour, the economy, and the business environment in Nigeria. This report presents the Q3, 2017 results for the NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index (CCI). THE NOIPOLLS CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX (CCI) The NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) in Q3, 2017 experienced an increase of 2.7-points to stand at 67.5-points. Like the upturn experienced in the previous quarter of the year, Nigerian consumers’ confidence further gained momentum in Q3, 2017 indicating increased buoyancy in the purchasing confidence of citizens which is capable of stimulating more economic activities in the country. The increase in the index has mainly been driven by a rising optimism amongst Nigerian households regarding the current economic situation. This result proved that consumer expectations concerning future economic developments have improved modestly. The two variables that make up the NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index include the Present Situation Index (PSI) and the Expectation Index (EI). The Present Situation Index is based on how consumers feel about their current financial circumstance compared with 1 month ago, as well as their perception of the current buying environment for large household purchases in relation to their total family income. The Expectation Index is based on consumers’ perceptions of their future (3 months) financial situation, their economic outlook for the country as a whole and employment expectations. The general rise in the Consumer Confidence Index in Q3, 2017 has been driven by optimistic consumers’ opinions on their Present Situation Index (PSI). According to the Q3, 2017 findings, the PSI increased by 6.1-points to stand at 44.2-points from 38.1-points obtained in Q2, 2017. This shows that consumers appear to feel particularly optimistic about buying with overall sentiment towards household purchases in accordance to their present situation. On the other hand, the expectation index decreased slightly by 0.3-point from 84.9-points in Q2, 2017 to stand at 84.6-points in Q3, 2017. There are 7 variables that comprise the PSI and EI and 4 of these variables experienced positive increase, while 3 of the variables – Expected Country’s Economic Situation, Expected Employment Condition and Expected Total Family Income indices experienced a decline. These are highlighted below; Current Economic Situation Index–46.6 The Current Economic Situation Index increased from 42.2-points in Q2, 2017 to 46.6-points in Q3, 2017. This indicates a 4.4-point increase signifying that consumers are optimistic about the country’s current Economic Situation. Expectation of the Country’s Economic Situation Index –93.4 The Expectation of the Country’s Economic Situation Index decreased by 1-point from 94.4-points obtained in Q2, 2017 to stand at 93.4-points. Current Employment Condition Index – 54.6 The Current Employment Condition improved from 53.4-points in Q2, 2017 to 54.6-points in Q3, 2017. This represents a 1.2-point increase indicating a slightly improved perception about consumers’ present employment status. Expected Employment Condition Index – 98.0 The Expected Employment Condition Index decreased by 0.4-point to stand at 98-points in Q3, 2017. Although the index decreased, it still remains the highest index, indicating that Nigerian consumers are highly expectant of improvements in their employment conditions. Current Prices of Goods and Services Index – 31.6 The Current Prices of Goods and Services Index, again, experienced the highest increase of 12.8-points in Q3, 2017 to stand at 31.6-points from 18.8-points recorded in Q2, 2017. Expectation of Prices of Goods and Services Index – 81.95 The Expectation of Prices of Goods and Services Index increased by 2.4-points from 79.6-points in Q2, 2017 to stand at 82-points in Q3, 2017, meaning that there is a high anticipation among the Nigerian consumers for future reduction in the prices of goods and services. Expected Total Family Income Index – 65.3 The Expected Total Family Income Index declined by 1.8-points to stand at 65.3-points from the 67.1-points recorded in Q2, 2017, suggesting that expectations regarding the future financial income of households are declining . TREND ANALYSIS Trend analysis showed that the PSI increased by 6.1-points to stand at 44.2-points in Q3, 2017, while the EI decreased by 0.3-point to stand at 84.6-points in Q3, 2017. These variances are the chief determinants of the overall results of the CCI for each quarter. In conclusion, the NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index increased by 2.7-points to stand at 67.5-points in Q3 2017. This signifies an increased confidence on the general economic outlook of the country by consumers and this positivity could create a positive multiplier effect on the country’s gross domestic products (GDP). In addition, the Present Situation Index (PSI) experienced an increase of 6.1-points to stand at 44.2-points while the Expectation Index (EI) experienced a decrease of 0.3-point to stand at 84.6-points in Q3, 2017. Also, 4 of the indices that make up the PSI and the EI experienced an increase while the remaining 3 – the Expected Country’s Economic Situation, Expected Employment Condition and Expected Total Family Income indexes experience a decline. The increase experienced in the CCI of Q3, 2017 infers that consumers’ assessment of their present conditions is relatively positive and their short-term (3 months) expectations suggest that they are hopeful the economy will improve. The increase in the CCI also depicts that Nigerian consumers are willing to spend their money. If this willingness to spend is sustained, it would have a positive effect on the economy therefore, there is every reason to expect consumption to grow in the coming months and quarters. Survey Methods The Consumer Confidence Index Poll was conducted in Quarter 3, 2017. The CCI involved telephone interviews of a random nationwide sample. 3,000 randomly selected phone-owning Nigerians aged 18 years and above, representing the six geopolitical zones in the country, were interviewed. With a sample of this size, we can say with 95% confidence that the results obtained are statistically precise – within a range of plus or minus 3%. NOIPolls Limited, No1 for country specific polling services in West Africa. We conduct periodic opinion polls and studies on various socio-economic and political issues in Nigeria. More information is available at www.noi-polls.com, you can also download our mobile app NOIPolls on your smartphone. Disclaimer This press release has been produced by NOIPolls Limited to provide information on all issues which form the subject matter of the document. Kindly note that while we are willing to share results from our polls with the general public, we only request that NOIPolls be acknowledged as author whenever and wherever our poll results are used, cited or published. NOIPolls hereby certifies that all the views expressed in this document accurately reflect its views of respondents surveyed for the poll, and background information is based on information from various sources that it believes are reliable; however, no representation is made that it is accurate or complete. Whilst reasonable care has been taken in preparing this document, no responsibility or liability is accepted for errors or fact or for any views expressed herein by NOIPolls for actions taken as a result of information provided in this report. Any ratings, forecasts, estimates, opinions or views herein constitute a judgment as at the date of this document. If the date of this document is not current, the views and content may not reflect NOIPolls’ current findings and/or thinking. Press Contact The Editor Email: editor@noi-polls.com
- Presidential Job Approval Rating at 50 Percent as Nigerians Rate Acting President
Abuja Nigeria, March 7th 2017 – Latest Presidential Job Approval rating in Nigeria conducted by NOIPolls has revealed that, for the first time in the last one year, Nigerians have rated the current administration average. This comes on the heels of the latest 50 percentage point approval rating of the Acting President Prof. Yemi Osinbajo for the month of February 2017. The last time the presidential approval rating edged up to 50 percent was in February 2016, when it stood at 57 percent. Besides, this current rating depicts a 6-point increase from that of January 2017, which stood at 44 percent; and demonstrates improved perception amongst the citizenry towards the governance efforts of the Acting President. Interestingly, this improved perception was significantly observed amongst residents of the South-West geo-political zone, where the Acting-President hails from and, which experienced a 24-points increase from January 2017. Similarly, the improved perception was also observed in the North-Central and South-East geo-political zones with 14-points and 10-points increases respectively, compared to January 2017. More findings revealed that the Acting President’s job performance approval was mainly backed by reasons such as ‘slight reduction in prices of goods and services’ (22 percent), ‘recent visit to the South-South & South-East regions’ (19 percent), ‘improved security across the country’ (16 percent), ‘slight appreciation in the value of the Naira’ (9 percent), and ‘enhanced agricultural activities & fertilizer distribution’ (8 percent) amongst other positive reasons. On the other hand, respondents who disapproved of his job performance cited reasons such as ‘poor economic situation’ (39 percent), ‘high cost of living’ (24 percent) and ‘high unemployment rate’ (15 percent) as key reasons for not approving his performance. These are some of the key findings from the recent Governance poll conducted by NOIPolls between the 24th and 28th of February 2017. These results represent the twenty-first approval rating in a monthly series of governance polls conducted by NOIPolls to gauge the perceptions of Nigerians regarding the job performance of the President. Survey findings President Muhammad Buhari had, on the 19th of January 2017, sent a letter to the National Assembly conveying his decision to proceed on leave and thus, transferring power to his Vice President, Prof Yemi Osinbajo, as required by Section 145 (1) of the Nigerian Constitution. Professor Osinbajo has been Acting as President of Nigeria since his departure till date, and this poll was conducted to assess his job performance as Acting President for the first full month of February 2017. In order to assess the general perception of Nigerians regarding the performance of Acting President (Prof. Yemi Osinbajo) over the past one month, the findings from the poll revealed that 50 percent of adult Nigerians interviewed approved the job performance of the Acting President’s job performance. This current rating represents a 6-point increase from January 2017 rating (44 percent); indicating an improved perception from previous months. On the other hand, 31 percent disapproved of his performance, while 19 percent remained neutral, neither approving nor disapproving of his performance. Interestingly, this improved perception in the presidential job approval rating was significantly observed amongst residents of the South-West geo-political zone, where the Acting-President hails from, which experienced a 24-points increase from January 2017. Similarly, the North-Central and South-East geo-political zones also witnessed some improvement in the perception of performance with 14-points and 10-points increases respectively, compared to January 2017. Respondents were asked reasons for either their approval or disapproval of the acting president’s job performance, and findings revealed that Nigerians who approved of the Acting President’s performance cited reasons such as ‘slight reduction in prices of goods and services’ (22 percent), ‘recent visit to the South-South & South-East region’ (19 percent) ‘improved security across the country’ (16 percent) ‘slight appreciation in the value of the Naira’ (9 percent), and the ‘enhanced agricultural activities & fertilizer distribution’ (8 percent). Some other respondents stated that the Acting President ‘is hardworking and we prefer his leadership style’, ‘He always gives credit to the President’, ‘plans to establish modular refineries’, and the ‘cleanup of Ogoni land’ amongst other positive reasons. On the other hand, respondents who disapproved the Acting President’s job performance mainly ascribed their position to issues such as: ‘poor economic situation’ (39 percent), ‘high cost of living’ (24 percent), ‘high unemployment rate’ (15 percent). Other reasons include ‘the epileptic power supply’, ‘non-payment of salaries and pensions’, ‘poor infrastructure’ and the ‘closure of land borders’ amongst others. In conclusion, the poll has revealed that for the first time in close to a year, Nigerians have rated the job performance of Acting President- Prof. Yemi Osinbajo- at an average score of 50 percent for the month of February 2017. The month of February marks the first full month that Prof. Osinbajo as acted as President and this current rating demonstrates a general improvement in the perception of Nigerians regarding the presidential job performance, particularly amongst his kinsmen from the South-West geo-political zone. Finally, a key highlight from this poll is that while 50 percent of Nigerians approve the job performance of the Acting President for the month of February 2017, a significant proportion (31 percent) still do not approve of his performance; and this calls for critical evaluation and policy response. Evidence from the data clearly suggests that the economy remains at the front-burner of what needs to be urgently tackled by the government; as issues such as the high cost of living, high unemployment rate, poor infrastructure and non-payments of workers’ salaries all revolve around the economy. Survey Methods The public opinion poll was conducted between the 24th and 28th of February 20th, 2017. It involved telephone interviews of a random nationwide sample. 1,000 randomly selected phone-owning Nigerians aged 18 years and above, representing the six geopolitical zones in the country, were interviewed. With a sample of this size, we can say with 95% confidence that the results obtained are statistically precise – within a range of plus or minus 3%. NOIPolls Limited is the No1 for country specific polling services in West Africa. We conduct periodic opinion polls and studies on various socio-economic and political issues in Nigeria. More information is available at www.noi-polls.com Disclaimer This press release has been produced by NOIPolls Limited to provide information on all issues which form the subject matter of the document. Kindly note that while we are willing to share results from our polls with the general public, we only request that NOIPolls be acknowledged as author whenever and wherever our poll results are used, cited or published. NOIPolls hereby certifies that all the views expressed in this document accurately reflect its views of respondents surveyed for the poll, and background information is based on information from various sources that it believes are reliable; however, no representation is made that it is accurate or complete. Whilst reasonable care has been taken in preparing this document, no responsibility or liability is accepted for errors or fact or for any views expressed herein by NOIPolls for actions taken as a result of information provided in this report. Any ratings, forecasts, estimates, opinions or views herein constitute a judgment as at the date of this document. If the date of this document is not current, the views and content may not reflect NOIPolls’ current findings and/or thinking. Press Contact The Editor Email: editor@noi-polls.com [1]http://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/headlines/220955-breaking-buhari-writes-national-assembly-makes-osinbajo-acting-president-third-time.html
- Power Supply Worsens In Q4 at the Peak of the Privatisation Process; Was Best In Q1
Abuja, Nigeria. January 24th, 2013 – Power poll results released by NOIPolls Limited for the Fourth Quarter of 2013 have revealed that although power supply to households worsened in the fourth quarter, nevertheless majority of Nigerians (70%) are hopeful about the on-going reform in the power sector. More findings revealed that an average of 46% of Nigerians received between 1-4 hours of continuous power supply daily, while 17% said they have received absolutely “No Light” in their households. These were the key findings from the Power Snap Poll conducted in Quarter 4 (Q4), 2013. In the Fourth Quarter of 2013, the Nigerian power sector saw an achievement of a milestone as the privatisation process, initiated to reform the power sector was taken to the next level. This involved the final hand over of 11 power distribution and five generation companies, created out of PHCN which was regulated by the Nigerian Electricity Regulation Commission (NERC), to their private owners on behalf of the Federal Government. This implies that in the new era for the power sector, privately owned generating companies will sell directly to distribution companies, which finally gets power to consumers.[1] With the aim of monitoring the progress made so far in the power sector reforms in Nigeria, NOIPolls introduced the Power Polls in April 2013 to explore the perception of Nigerians towards the power sector reforms, the amount of power supply received daily and expenditure on alternative sources of power. This results presented is 3rd in the series for Q4 2013 following the Q2 and Q3 reports. Key Findings In order to highlight the trends in power supply over Q4 2013, respondents were asked the following question:How would you describe power in your area in the past 1 month? An assessment of the state of power supply in Q4 (averages of all 3 months) revealed that the majority; Av:45% (31% +14%) of Nigerians reported power supply remains bad or has worsened, Av:33%(30% +3%) indicated some improvement and Av:22%reported no difference in power supply. In addition, October (36%) recorded the highest proportion of respondents who experienced little improvement, November (25%) had the highest proportion of respondents who did not experience any difference in the state of power [1] www.vanguardngr.com Annual Nationwide review: A review of the state of power for the year 2013 (12 months) shows that power was best in Q1 and worse in Q4. This is evident on the fact that Q1 recorded the highest proportion of respondents who gave a positive report (40%: 33%+7%) andQ4 has the highest proportion of respondents (which also represents the majority) that gave a negative report (45%: 31%+14%) on power. A further trend analysis shows a 4-point decline in the proportion of respondents that claimed power supply improved very much from Q3 (7%) to Q4 (3%) and 5-Point increase in the proportion that claimed power supply remains bad from Q3 (26%) to Q4 (31%). These figures reveal that the power worsened in the fourth quarter which also ushered in a new era for the power sector. Annual Regional Review: Furthermore, a regional appraisal of power in 2013 reveals that the North-East zone is the most affected zone with poor power supply as it recorded the highest proportion of respondents that claimed power supply remains bad and has gone worse in three quarters; Q1(39%), Q2(61%) and Q4(59%). In addition, the South-East zone had the best power report in first 2 quarters as it recorded the highest proportion of respondents who experienced an improvement in Q1 (46%) and Q2 (41%) while the best power report in the last two quarters of 2013 was obtained in the South-South zone as it recorded the highest proportion of respondents that experienced an improvement in the state of power in Q3 (47%) and Q4 (43%). The table below shows the yearly averages of all the six Geo Political zones on the perception of power supply over the 12-month period under review. A total of 12,000+ respondents were interviewed. Yearly Averages: The zones are spilt equally along the lines of bad and improved power supply; South East (43%), North-Central (41%) and South-South (41%) are the zones whose majority have seen improvements in their power supply over the 12 months while the North-East (51%), North West (46%)and South-West (46%) are zones whose majority reported bad/worsened power supply. Subsequently, in order to assess the length of hours of power supply generally received by Nigerian households daily, respondents were asked: On the average, how many hours of continuous power supply does your household experience daily? On an average, the majority of Nigerians (46%) receive 1-4 hours of continuous power daily; this is followed by 20% who claimed they receive between 5-9 hours of continuous power and 17% who reported they receive no power supply at all. Furthermore the month of December recorded the highest proportion of Nigerians that receives 1-4 hours of continuous power supply daily. A nine months review revealed a continuous decline in the duration of hours of continuous power supply received by the majority of Nigerian households from Q2 to Q4. This is evident on the fact that there was a total 4-pointdecline in the proportion of Nigerians that receive 5-9 hours of power supply from Q2 (23%) and Q4 (19%) as well as a corresponding 3-point total increase in the proportion of Nigerians that receive 1-4 hours of power supply from Q2 (43%) to Q4 (46%). With the aim of measuring the proportion of Nigerians that use alternative sources, respondents were asked: Do you use any alternate source of electricity supply such as generators or inverters? An average across the three months in Q4 revealed that 81% of Nigerians use other sources to generate electricity. Again a nine months evaluation revealed a 3-point decline in the proportion of Nigerians that use alternative sources of power supply from Q2to Q3 and a subsequent 3% increase from Q3 to Q4. In addition, Q3 which recorded the highest proportion of respondents that claimed they had no power supply (17%) also recorded the lowest proportion of respondents that use alternate sources of power supply. In order to measure the level of awareness of Nigerians 2on the reforms in the power sector, respondents were asked: Are you aware that the Federal Government is making efforts to reform the power sector?Findings revealed the level of awareness has remained relatively constant over Q4with an average of 79%. Again a comparison of the result obtained from in nine months revealed the same level of awareness in Q2(64%) and Q3 and a 15-points increase in the awareness of the power reforms from Q3 to Q4 (79%)representing the highest level of awareness. Finally, respondents were asked: How do you feel about these on-going power reforms? Results obtained in the Q4 revealed that 70% (52% +18%) of Nigerians are hopeful about the on-going reforms. This if followed by 19% that are indifferent and a meager 11% that claim to be dissatisfied with the reforms in the power sector. A nine months trend analysis revealed that the 4th quarter (70%: 52%+18%) had the highest percentage of Nigerians who are hopeful about the power reforms. Also there was an 8-point increase in the proportion of Nigerians that are hopeful about the power sector reforms from Q3 (62%: 16%+46%) to Q4 (70%: 18%+52%). This rise in hope may have been stimulated by the conclusion of the privatization process aimed at transforming the power sector. In conclusion, findings from the Q4 power poll have revealed that majority; Av:45% (31% +14%) of Nigerians reported power supply remains bad or has worsened, Av:33%(30% +3%) indicated some improvement and Av:22% reported no difference in power supply. More findings revealed that an average majority (46%) of Nigerians receive 1-4 hours of continuous power supply daily and 81% of Nigerians use alternative power sources to generate electricity. Furthermore, the majority of Nigerians (70%) are hopeful about on-going reforms in the Power Sector. Findings have shown that the last phase of the privatization process has stimulated great expectations about the power sector reforms among the majority of Nigerians. Due to past and current challenges faced in the power sector, the total reformation may be a gradual process with a succession of milestones to be achieved. One of which would be the increase of total power currently being generated which will directly result in improved power supply to households. Survey Methods The opinion poll was conducted within a 12 month period covering January to December 2013. It involved telephone interviews of a random nationwide sample of 12,000+ phone-owning Nigerians aged 18 years and above, representing the six geopolitical zones in the country. With a sample of this size, we can say with 95% confidence that the results obtained are statistically precise – within a range of plus or minus 3%. NOIPolls Limited, No.1 for country-specific polling services in West Africa, which works in technical partnership with the Gallup Organisation (USA), to conduct periodic opinion polls and studies on various socio-economic and political issues in Nigeria. More information is available at www.noi-polls.com Disclaimer This press release has been produced by NOIPolls Limited to provide information on all issues which form the subject matter of the document. Kindly note that while we are willing to share results from our polls with the general public, we only request that NOIPolls be acknowledged as author whenever and wherever our poll results are used, cited or published. NOIPolls hereby certifies that all the views expressed in this document accurately reflect its views of respondents surveyed for the poll, and background information is based on information from various sources that it believes are reliable; however, no representation is made that it is accurate or complete. Whilst reasonable care has been taken in preparing this document, no responsibility or liability is accepted for errors or fact or for any views expressed herein by NOIPolls for actions taken as a result of information provided in this report. Any ratings, forecasts, estimates, opinions or views herein constitute a judgment as at the date of this document. If the date of this document is not current, the views and content may not reflect NOIPolls’ current findings and/or thinking. Press Contact The Editor Email: editor@noi-polls.com
- The Nigerian Banking Sector
Abuja, Nigeria. September 06, 2010 – In 2009, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) embarked on reforms in the banking sector to enhance the quality of banks, establish financial stability, enable healthy financial sector evolution and ensure that the financial sector contributes to the real economy. Despite the ongoing reforms in the sector, only roughly One in Ten Nigerians say they have confidence in the Nigerian banking sector. In a recent survey conducted by NOI Polls, Nigerians were asked if they were aware of the ongoing banking reforms by the CBN. About four in ten respondents (42%) said they were unaware of the reforms while 58% of the respondents said they were aware of the reforms. Respondents were then asked if they had confidence in the Nigerian Banking Sector. Only 11 % expressed confidence in the banking sector (Agree and strongly agree) while nearly 6 in 10 (58%) respondents said they lacked confidence in the banking sector (Disagree and strongly disagree). 24 % neither had confidence nor lacked confidence in the sector, while 7% did not know if they had or lacked confidence in the banking sector. The results show a marked reduction in confidence levels when compared to a similar survey conducted by NOI Polls one year ago (August 2009), around the start of the reforms. In that survey, a total of 71 % of the respondents expressed confidence in the banking sector (Agree and strongly agree), compared to 11% in 2010; while only 17% lacked confidence (Disagree and strongly disagree), compared to 58% in 2010. 12% did not know if they had or lacked confidence in the banking sector, compared to 24% in 2010. Respondents for the snap polls were randomly selected from a database of phone-owning Nigerians aged 18 and above across the six geopolitical zones in the country, compiled by NOI Polls. 1024 people took part in the telephone interviews conducted from the 23rd and 25th of August, 2010. For a sample of this size, we can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points. This poll is part of the ongoing snap poll exercise conducted by NOI Polls to rapidly assess public sentiments following various social, political or economic events. NOI Polls is a Nigeria based opinion research organization which Works in technical partnership with Gallup Polls (USA), to conduct periodic opinion polls on various socioeconomic issues in Nigeria. The Nigerian Banking Sector Abuja, Nigeria. September 06, 2010 – In 2009, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) embarked on reforms in the banking sector to enhance the quality of banks, establish financial stability, enable healthy financial sector evolution and ensure that the financial sector contributes to the real economy. Despite the ongoing reforms in the sector, only roughly One in Ten Nigerians say they have confidence in the Nigerian banking sector. In a recent survey conducted by NOI Polls, Nigerians were asked if they were aware of the ongoing banking reforms by the CBN. About four in ten respondents (42%) said they were unaware of the reforms while 58% of the respondents said they were aware of the reforms. Respondents were then asked if they had confidence in the Nigerian Banking Sector. Only 11 % expressed confidence in the banking sector (Agree and strongly agree) while nearly 6 in 10 (58%) respondents said they lacked confidence in the banking sector (Disagree and strongly disagree). 24 % neither had confidence nor lacked confidence in the sector, while 7% did not know if they had or lacked confidence in the banking sector. The results show a marked reduction in confidence levels when compared to a similar survey conducted by NOI Polls one year ago (August 2009), around the start of the reforms. In that survey, a total of 71 % of the respondents expressed confidence in the banking sector (Agree and strongly agree), compared to 11% in 2010; while only 17% lacked confidence (Disagree and strongly disagree), compared to 58% in 2010. 12% did not know if they had or lacked confidence in the banking sector, compared to 24% in 2010. Respondents for the snap polls were randomly selected from a database of phone-owning Nigerians aged 18 and above across the six geopolitical zones in the country, compiled by NOI Polls. 1024 people took part in the telephone interviews conducted from the 23rd and 25th of August, 2010. For a sample of this size, we can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points. This poll is part of the ongoing snap poll exercise conducted by NOI Polls to rapidly assess public sentiments following various social, political or economic events. NOI Polls is a Nigeria based opinion research organization which Works in technical partnership with Gallup Polls (USA), to conduct periodic opinion polls on various socioeconomic issues in Nigeria.
- NOIPolls Portfolio of Indices – April 2015
Abuja, Nigeria. May 14th, 2015 –The Portfolio of Indices report released by NOIPolls Limited for the month of April 2015 revealed that consumers are warming up to the new Government as the NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) jumps by 5.2-points to stand at 62.9-points in April 2015. This result is a reflection of the Present Situation Index (PSI) and Expectation Index (EI) which both experienced an increase of 6.9-points and 3.9-points to stand at 34.9-points and 83.9-points respectively. These results suggest positive outlook of Nigerians for an improved situation even in the face of decline in consumers’ confidence in other parts of the world such as Australia, where Consumer Confidence decreased to 96.20 in April 2015 from 99.47 in March 2015.[1] Similarly the U.S. Consumer Confidence unexpectedly slumped in April, as reported by the Conference Board, an industry group, which stated that its index of consumer attitudes fell to 95.2 in April from 101.4 in March.[2] More findings revealed that the NOIPolls Personal Well-Being Index (PWBI) declined by 2.1-points to stand at 43.2-points from 45.3-points in March 2015. Furthermore, all the indicators that make-up the PWBI experienced a decline, with the health index experiencing the highest decrease of 4.6-points. These are the key highlights from the April 2015 Portfolio of Indices Press Release. In February 2014, NOIPolls Limited introduced its portfolio of indices; the NOIPolls Personal Well-Being Index (PWBI), the NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) and the NOIPolls Eagle 30 Business Confidence Index (EBCI). The NOIPolls Personal Well-Being Index measures factors impacting on the lives of everyday Nigerians; thereby producing a complete view of the individual’s personal well-being. The NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index provides consumer assessments of the economic situation and their intentions and expectations for the future. The NOIPolls Eagle 30 Business Confidence Index measures business leaders’ perceptions and expectations about the Nigerian business environment using the top 30 companies in the country. Nigerian businesses, financial and government agencies largely depend on their perceptions and micro assessment of consumers’ expectation in making decisions. At best, they draw conclusion on the business environment based on information from their immediate surroundings while the minorities conduct surveys that are time and money consuming. However, the introduction of these indices provides indicators that will ensure stakeholders can detect and respond to changes in consumer behavior, the economy, and the business environment in Nigeria. This report presents the April 2015 results for the NOIPolls Personal Well-Being Index (PWBI) and NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index (CCI). The NOIPolls Personal Well-Being Index (PWBI) The NOIPolls Personal Well-Being Index (PWBI) for the month of April 2015 experienced a decline to stand at 43.2-points in April 2015 from 45.3-points in March 2015; thus showing a continuous decline from January 2015. Analysis of the individual indicators which constitutes the PWBI revealed differences in assessment of Nigerians on several attributes of their lives. Nigerians are most satisfied in terms of Physical Health (72.7-points), Social Interaction (77.4-points), andReligion(87.2-points). Nigerians are neutral in terms of Achievement in Life(50.3-points) and Personal Security (56.7-points), while Nigerians are not contented with their Standard of Living (48.7-points), and Personal Economic Situation (39.0-points). The Economic Situation Index has remained the lowest ranked indicator for over sixteen months. Trend analysis revealed that all indicators that makeup the PWBI experienced a decline in the month of April 2015; the Health index experienced the highest decline with 4.6-points. Further findings from monthly trend analysis revealed that the NOIPolls PWBI has continuously declined from January 2015, with a decline of 2.1-points from March 2015 to stand at 43.20 in April 2015. Please click here to see the full (PWBI) report The NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) The NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index for the month of April 2015 experienced an increase of 5.2-points to stand at 62.9-points. The NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index is made-up of 2 independent variables; the Present Situation Index (PSI) and Expectation Index (EI). The PSI increased by 6.9-points to stand at 34.9-points. Despite the significant increase, the PSI still shows that Nigerians are not satisfied with the present economic situation. On the other hand, the EI which also increased by 3.9-points to 83.9-points revealed that consumers are very much optimistic of a better economic situation in the nearest future. Trend analysis revealed that the overall CCI increased by 5.2-point to 62.9-points in April 2015 when compared to March 2015. The significant increase revealed that although consumers are not too positive about their current situation, nevertheless, they have great expectations for the future especially with the coming of a new administration. Please click here to see the full (CCI) report In conclusion, current results revealed that the NOIPolls Personal Well-Being Index (PWBI) further decreased by 2.1-points to stand at 43.2-points in April 2015, with all indicators that make up the PWBI experiencing a decline. Comparably, the NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index increased by 5.2-points to stand at 62.9-points. More findings revealed that the Present Situation Index (PSI) and Expectation Index (EI) increased by 6.9-points and 3.9-points respectively in the month of April 2015. Survey Methods The Personal Well-Being Index and Consumer Confidence Index Polls were conducted in the month of April 2015. The PWBI involved telephone interviews of a random nationwide sample. 1,000 randomly selected phone-owning Nigerians aged 18 years and above, representing the six geopolitical zones in the country, were interviewed. With a sample of this size, we can say with 95% confidence that the results obtained are statistically precise – within a range of plus or minus 3%. In addition the CCI involved telephone interviews of a random nationwide sample. 4,000 randomly selected phone-owning Nigerians aged 18 years and above, representing the six geopolitical zones in the country, were interviewed. With a sample of this size, we can say with 95% confidence that the results obtained are statistically precise – within a range of plus or minus 2%. NOIPolls Limited, No1 for country specific polling services in West Africa, which works in technical partnership with the Gallup Organisation (USA), to conduct periodic opinion polls and studies on various socio-economic and political issues in Nigeria. More information is available at www.noi-polls.com Disclaimer This press release has been produced by NOIPolls Limited to provide information on all issues which form the subject matter of the document. Kindly note that while we are willing to share results from our polls with the general public, we only request that NOIPolls be acknowledged as author whenever and wherever our poll results are used, cited or published. NOIPolls hereby certifies that all the views expressed in this document accurately reflect its views of respondents surveyed for the poll, and background information is based on information from various sources that it believes are reliable; however, no representation is made that it is accurate or complete. Whilst reasonable care has been taken in preparing this document, no responsibility or liability is accepted for errors or fact or for any views expressed herein by NOIPolls for actions taken as a result of information provided in this report. Any ratings, forecasts, estimates, opinions or views herein constitute a judgment as at the date of this document. If the date of this document is not current, the views and content may not reflect NOIPolls’ current findings and/or thinking. Press Contact The Editor Email: editor@noi-polls.com [1] http://www.tradingeconomics.com/australia/consumer-confidence [2] http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/04/28/us-usa-economy-confidence-idUSKBN0NJ1OT20150428
- NOIPolls Portfolio of Indices – March 2015
Abuja, Nigeria. April 16th, 2015 –The Portfolio of Indices report released by NOIPolls Limited for the month of March 2015 revealed that the NOIPolls Personal Well-Being Index (PWBI) stood at 45.3-points in March 2015; representing a slight 0.5-point decrease when compared to February 2015. Furthermore, only 2 indicators (Health and Security) that make-up the PWBI experienced an increase, while all others experienced a decrease. More findings revealed that the NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) decreased by 2.6-points from February 2015 to 57.8-points in March 2015. In addition, the Present Situation Index (PSI) experienced a decline of 6.2-points, whereas, the Expectation Index (EI) increased by 0.03-point in March 2015. These are the key highlights from the March 2015 Portfolio of Indices Result Release. In February 2014, NOIPolls Limited introduced its portfolio of indices; the NOIPolls Personal Well-Being Index (PWBI), the NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) and the NOIPolls Eagle 30 Business Confidence Index (EBCI). The NOIPolls Personal Well-Being Index measures factors impacting on the lives of everyday Nigerians; thereby producing a complete view of the individual’s personal well-being. The NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index provides consumer assessments of the economic situation and their intentions and expectations for the future. The NOIPolls Eagle 30 Business Confidence Index measures business leaders’ perceptions and expectations about the Nigerian business environment using the top 30 companies in the country. Nigerian businesses, financial and government agencies largely depend on their perceptions and micro assessment of consumers’ expectation in making decisions. At best, they draw conclusion on the business environment based on information from their immediate surroundings while the minorities conduct surveys that are time and money consuming. However, the introduction of these indices provides indicators that will ensure stakeholders can detect and respond to changes in consumer behavior, the economy, and the business environment in Nigeria. This report presents the March 2015 results for the NOIPolls Personal Well-Being Index (PWBI) and NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index (CCI). The NOIPolls Personal Well-Being Index (PWBI) The NOIPolls Personal Well-Being Index for March 2015 stood at 45.3-points, representing a 0.5-point decrease when compared to February 2015. Analysis of the individual indicators which makes up the PWBI revealed differences in assessment of Nigerians on several attributes of their lives. Nigerians are most satisfied in terms of Physical Health (77.3-points), Social Interaction (79-points), and Religion(89.5-points). Nigerians showed an average satisfaction in terms of their Standard of Living (52.5-points), Achievement in Life(53.7-points) and Personal Security (59.5-points), while showing low satisfaction in their Personal Economic Situation (41.7-points). This economic index has remained the lowest ranked indicator for over fifteen months. Trend analysis indicates that 2 of the indicators that make up the PWBI; Health index (0.1-point) and Security index (0.9-point) experienced an increase; while other the indicators that make up the PWBI including Standard of Living (1-point), Achievement in Life(2.9-points), Social Interaction (0.7-point), Religion (0.8-point), Economic situation (2.1-points) experienced a decrease in the month of March 2015. Further findings from monthly trend analysis show that the NOIPolls PWBI experienced a slight decline by 0.5-point in March from February 2014. The NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) The NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index for March 2015 decreased by 2.6-points to 57.8-points from February 2015. However, the results imply that Nigerians are positive about their current situation. The NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index is made-up of 2 independent variables; the Present Situation Index (PSI) and Expectation Index (EI). The PSI decreased by 6.2-points to stand at 28-points, revealing that Nigerians are not satisfied with the present economic situation. In contrast, the EI slightly increased by 0.03-point to currently stand at 80-points, implying that consumers are optimistic of a promising future. Trend analysis reveals that the overall CCI declined by 2.6-points to 57.8-points in March 2015 when compared to February 2015. In conclusion, current results have revealed that the NOIPolls Personal Well-Being Index (PWBI) decreased by 0.5-point to stand at 45.3-points in March 2015, with an increase in 2 of the indicators that make up the PWBI. Similarly, the NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index decreased by 2.6-points to stand at 57.8-points. More findings revealed that the Present Situation Index (PSI) decreased by 6.2-points while, the Expectation Index (EI) decreased by 0.03-point in the month of March 2015. Survey Methods The Personal Well-Being Index and Consumer Confidence Index Polls were conducted in the month of March 2015. The PWBI involved telephone interviews of a random nationwide sample. 1,000 randomly selected phone-owning Nigerians aged 18 years and above, representing the six geopolitical zones in the country, were interviewed. With a sample of this size, we can say with 95% confidence that the results obtained are statistically precise – within a range of plus or minus 3%. In addition the CCI involved telephone interviews of a random nationwide sample. 4,000 randomly selected phone-owning Nigerians aged 18 years and above, representing the six geopolitical zones in the country were interviewed. With a sample of this size, we can say with 95% confidence that the results obtained are statistically precise – within a range of plus or minus 2%. NOIPolls Limited, No1 for country specific polling services in West Africa, works in technical partnership with the Gallup Organisation (USA). We conduct periodic opinion polls and studies on various socio-economic and political issues in Nigeria. More information is available at www.noi-polls.com Disclaimer This press release has been produced by NOIPolls Limited to provide information on all issues which form the subject matter of the document. Kindly note that while we are willing to share results from our polls with the general public, we only request that NOIPolls be acknowledged as author whenever and wherever our poll results are used, cited or published. NOIPolls hereby certifies that all the views expressed in this document accurately reflect its views of respondents surveyed for the poll, and background information is based on information from various sources that it believes are reliable; however, no representation is made that it is accurate or complete. Whilst reasonable care has been taken in preparing this document, no responsibility or liability is accepted for errors or fact or for any views expressed herein by NOIPolls for actions taken as a result of information provided in this report. Any ratings, forecasts, estimates, opinions or views herein constitute a judgment as at the date of this document. If the date of this document is not current, the views and content may not reflect NOIPolls’ current findings and/or thinking. Press Contact The Editor Email: editor@noi-polls.com


















