Abuja, Nigeria. January 6th, 2015– Latest governance poll results released by NOIPolls for the month ofDecember 2014 revealed that about 5 in 10 (55%) adult Nigerians surveyed approved of the President’s job performance in the past 1 month; this represents a 5-points decline from November 2014. This decline may be attributed to the changing perceptions of Nigerians resident in three (3) geo-political zones; the North-East (23-points decline), North-Central (14-points decline) and North-West (10-points decline) of which these regions witnessed a series of violent attacks in some major cities towards the end of 2014. A notable instance is the attack by two suicide bombers at a market in Nigeria’s second-largest city, Kano which took place in December 2014 barely less than two weeks after multiple explosions rocked the Kano Central Mosque, killing about 200 people in late November 2014. Similarly, a twin suicide bombing in a crowded marketplace in Jos which left at least 31 people dead was also recorded in December 2014. More findings revealed that27%; (17%+10%) of Nigerians disapproved of the President’s job performance, while 18% remained neutral as they neither approved nor disapproved of his performance.
Furthermore yearly trend analysis revealed that the average approval rating for the President for 2014 stood at58%; this figure indicates a 9-points increase in positive perception of Nigerians with regards to the job performance of the Presidentwhen compared to the average in 2013 which stood at 49%. An assessment of the President’s performance in key areas of his transformation agenda revealed that the President achieved an average (3) rating in terms of his performance in Job Creation, Economy, Education, Agriculture & Food Security, Transportation and Foreign Policy & Diplomacy; however, he was rated poorly in Security (1) and Power (1). More findings revealed that power supply to Nigerian households worsened in December 2014compared to November as there was a substantial 8-points decrease in the proportion of Nigerians who saw an improvement in power supply, although a comparison of power supply in 2013 and 2014 revealed a slight improvement in power supply in 2014. These were some of the key findings from the Governance Snap Pollconducted in the week of December 15th 2014.
These results represent the twelfth in the 2014 monthly series of governance polls conducted by NOIPolls to gauge the opinions and perceptions of Nigerians regardingthe approval rating of the President, the performance of the President on key elements of his transformation agenda, and thestate of power supply in the country.
Respondents to the poll were asked three specific questions. The first sought to assess the opinion of Nigerians on the performance of President Goodluck Jonathan over the past 1 month. Respondents were asked: Do you approve or disapprove of the job performance of President Jonathan in the past 1 month?The result revealed that about 5 in 10 (55%; 20%+35%) adult Nigerians surveyed approved of the President’s job performance in the past 1 month. On the contrary, 27% (17%+10%) disapproved of the president’s job performance whereas, 18% remained neutral as they neither approved nor disapproved of his performance.
An assessment of the President’s performance by geo-political zones indicated that the South-Eastzone accounted for the largest proportion (83%) of respondents who approved of the President’s job performance.The highest percentage of neutrality (28%)came from the North-East zone while, the North-West zone accounted for the largest proportion of Nigerians who disapproved of the President’s performance. Furthermore analysis by age group revealed that the President’s approval increased with older respondents as his approval rating was highest amongst Nigerians aged 46 years and above.
Comparing the President’s job approval rating by geo-political zone for Q4 2014 indicated a significant 5-points decline in his approval rating as a result of a shift in opinions on Nigerians from the three (3) aforementioned geo-political zones in December 2014. The North-East zone accounted for the highest decrease (23-poimts) from November 2014. This was followed by substantial decreases in the North-Central (14-points) and North-West (10-points) respectively. These three (3) geo-political zones accounted for the largest proportion of Nigerians surveyed whose opinion of the President’s job performance changed from approval to disapproval, hence, a 5-points overall decline in the President’s job rating inDecember 2014.
Monthly trend analysis of the President’s approval rating revealed that the President’s approval rating declined by 5-points in December 2014 from November 2014; it is also the second time this rating has experienced a drop since the peak observed in September 2014. Furthermore, the President generally received higher approval ratings in 2014 compared with similar months in 2013. His highest approval rating for 2014 was recorded at 74% in September 2014 and his lowest at 49% in April 2014; comparatively, his highest in 2013 was recorded at 57% in August 2013 and the lowest at 40% in December 2013. A common trend in the approval rating of the President for both years (2013 and 2014) is a decline in the approval rating of the President towards the end of both years.
Yearly trend analysis indicates that the overall perception of Nigerians towards the president’s job performance in 2014 is higher by 9-points at 58%, when compared to 2013; implying that Nigerians were comparatively more positive about the achievement of the President in 2014 than in 2013. This change in perception could have been stimulated by several achievements recorded through the year 2014 in the midst of challenges such as insecurity. For instance, September 2014 which recorded the highest approval for the President that could also be attributed to the successful management of the Ebola Virus Disease stimulated a positive perception of Nigerians on the President’s performance among other achievements in 2014.
To gauge the performance of the president on pertinent elements of his transformation agenda, respondents were asked: On a scale of 1 to 5, where 1 is very poor and 5 is excellent, how would you rate the performance of the President Jonathan in the following areas? (1) Job Creation (2) Power (3) Economy (4) Health (5) Education (6) Agriculture & Food Security (7) Transportation (8) Foreign Policy & Diplomacy and (9) Security. The result reveals that the President achieved an average(3) rating in terms of his performance in Job Creation, Economy, Education, Agriculture & Food Security, Transportation and Foreign Policy & Diplomacy; however, he was rated poorly in Security (1) and Power (1). These central components of his transformation agenda has remained very poor despite priority given to security and power by his administration. Additionally, the President received a very good (4) rating in health consecutively in the last two months (November and December 2014), indicating positive perception of Nigerians in this aspect of his transformation agenda.
Trend assessment indicates that the President’s performance rating on Economy, Education, Transportation and Foreign Policy & Diplomacy has maintained an average ranking (3) since January 2014, while other aspects of his transformation agenda have not been consistent over twelve months. Health maintained a score above average (4) for the second time, probably due to the relative good performance achieved in the sector following the successful handling of the Ebola Virus Disease. On the contrary, the President’s performance rating on Security has remained very poor (1) since February 2014. This is the only aspect of his transformation agenda that has consistently been rated poorly since January 2014.
Finally, to assess the state of power supply to Nigerian households over the past month, respondents were asked:How would you describe power supply in your area in the last 1 month? Responses revealed that majority (30%) of respondents surveyed reported power supply ‘has improved a little’, while 9% affirmed ‘it has improved very much’, On the contrary, other respondents claimed that it has either ‘remained bad’ (23%) or‘has gone worse’ (19%) over the past 1 month. In addition, 19% confirmed that “there’s no difference at all” in power supply to their households over the past 1 month.
Analysis from the geo-political zone standpoint indicates that the South-South zone has the largest proportion of Nigerians who experienced improved power supply over the past 1 month; whereas, the North-East zone has largest proportion of respondents who stated there is no difference at all in power supply when compared to 1 month ago. However, the South-West zone accounted for the largest proportion of Nigerians who claimed that power supply worsened over the past 1 month.
The monthly trend evaluation for 2014 reveals a significant 8-points decrease in power supply in December 2014 when compared to the previous month of November 2014. Furthermore, an evaluation of power improvement from 2013 to 2014 revealed more improvement in power supply in 2014 where the highest for 2014 was recorded at 52% in September 2014 and the highest for 2013 was recorded at 44% in January 2013.
The yearly average of power supply improvement for 2014 stood at 40% while it stood at 36% in 2013. This slight improvement in power supply in 2014 from 2013 may have been a product of the privatisation of the Power sector in Nigeria. Given this achievement, the results still point out the need for more effective post privatisation strategy that would yield considerable improvement in power supply in 2015 as the majority of Nigerians in 2013 (64%) and 2014 (60%) saw no improvement in power supply to their households.
In conclusion, 55% of adult Nigerians approved of the President’s job performance in December 2014; representing a 5-points decline in the President’s approval rating. This is mainly as a result of a shift in perception of residents within three (3) geo-political zones; North-East (23-point decline), North-Central (14-point decline) and North-West (10-point decline) in December 2014. Also, yearly trend analysis shows that the overall perception of Nigerians towards the president’s job performance in 2014 is higher by 9-points at 58%, when compared to 2013 (49%). More findings indicates that the President achieved an average(3) rating in terms of his performance in Job Creation, Economy, Education, Agriculture & Food Security, Transportation and Foreign Policy & Diplomacy; however he was rated poorly in Security (1) and Power (1). Finally, power supply to Nigerian households worsened in December as there was a substantial 8-pointsdecrease in the proportion of Nigerians who saw an improvement in power supply in December 2014, although a comparison of power supply in 2013 and 2014 revealed a slight improvement in power supply in 2014.
The opinion poll was conducted in the week of December 15th 2014. It involved telephone interviews of a random nationwide sample. 1,000 randomly selected phone-owning Nigerians aged 18 years and above, representing the six geopolitical zones in the country were interviewed. With a sample of this size, we can say with 95% confidence that the results obtained are statistically precise within a range of plus or minus 3%. NOIPolls Limited, No1 for country specific polling services in West Africa, which works in technical partnership with the Gallup Organisation (USA), conducts periodic opinion polls and studies on various socio-economic and political issues in Nigeria. More information about the Company and its services is available at www.noi-polls.com
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