Abuja, Nigeria. November 7th, 2023 – Ahead of the forthcoming Kogi State Gubernatorial elections slated for November 11th, 2023, a new public opinion poll conducted by NOIPolls reveals a close race in the Kogi State Governorship seat between the top two contenders: candidate of the SDP, Yakubu Murtala (20 percent), and candidate of the APC, Ahmed Usman Ododo (14 percent), with marginal six (6) percent point gap between the two.
Interestingly, the poll revealed that 89 percent of the eligible voters in the state are registered to vote in the coming election, and 99 percent of this proportion claimed to have obtained their Permanent Voters Card (PVC). In addition, 86 percent were absolutely certain that they would come out and vote for the gubernatorial candidate of their choice on 11th of November 2023. However, in spite of this level of optimism and preparedness, a significant proportion of respondents remain either undecided (19 percent) or simply refused (18 percent) to divulge their choice of candidate.
In conclusion, although Yakubu Murtala of SDP currently leads the race with a 6-point margin, we opine that the election remains a keenly contested race between the two leading candidates (Yakubu Murtala of SDP and Ahmed Usman Ododo of APC). This is mainly due to a very significant proportion of voters who remain either undecided (19 percent) or seek confidentiality (18 percent) as to their choice of candidate. Also, there are clear gaps across gender, senatorial districts, and age-group within those who refused to disclose their preferred choice and the undecided voter’s demography, which will ultimately swing the election result in favour of one candidate over other.
About NOIPolls & the Poll Methodology
NOIPolls is Nigeria’s premier public opinion polling institution, which conducts periodic opinion polls and studies on various socio-economic and political issues in Nigeria. More information is available at www.noi-polls.com.
The poll was conducted between the 1st and 6th November 2023. It involved telephone interviews of a random state-wide sample in Kogi State. 500 randomly selected phone-owning residents of the state aged 18 years and above, representing the three senatorial districts of the state, were interviewed. With a sample of this size, we can say with 95% confidence that the results obtained are statistically precise - within a range of plus or minus 4.65%. Of the 500 completed interviews, 50 percent were male and 50 percent female respondents. Samples for the poll were selected randomly for the senatorial districts in representation of the state’s population – Kogi West (29 percent), Kogi Central (28 percent), and Kogi East (43 percent). Also, 26 percent of respondents were aged between 18 and 35 years; 67 percent between 36 and 60 years; and 7 percent above 61 years. In terms of employment status of respondents, top 6 respondents are: Self-employed/Petty traders (31 percent), Businessmen/women (17 percent), Civil servants (17 percent), Professional workers (9 percent), Artisans (8 percent) and Unemployed (5 percent).
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