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- The Boko Haram Sect and Insecurity in Nigeria
August 2011 In recent times, the level of insecurity in Nigeria has increased significantly, due in no small measure to the activities of the ‘Boko Haram’ (which means Western or non-Islamic education is a sin) Sect. The extremist group, whose official name is Jama’atu Ahlis Sunna Lidda’awati wal-Jihad, is fighting to establish Sharia law in Nigeria and is reportedly responsible for the spate of killings and bombings mostly in the Northern part of the country. Arguably, the most notable of Boko Haram’s attacks was on the 26th August, 2011 bombing of the UN main office in Abuja – where 26 humanitarian and development agencies are based – which killed at least 18 people. In a bid to address the security fears of Nigerians, the Federal Government has deployed security forces in the areas where the group is known to be operational as well as set up a committee to review security problems in the area, and make recommendations for bringing a timely end to the Boko Haram crisis. NOI Polls decided to quiz Nigerians about their views on the extremist sect as well as their confidence in the Government’s ability to provide security for the citizens of this country. The results of the survey show a high level of awareness of the sect with over 9 in 10 respondents answering ‘Yes’ when asked if they were aware of a group called Boko Haram. When asked how they think the Federal Government should handle the Boko Haram Issue, the largest proportion of respondents (44%) of the respondents said that the government should employ military force; the second largest proportion (33%) said the government should engage in dialogue with the group and, only 4% respondents agree that the FG should grant amnesty to the terrorist group. Respondents were asked if they had confidence in the government’s ability to provide security for Nigerians. 52% of respondents expressed at least some confidence in the government’s ability to provide security for Nigerians while just over a third (35%) said they lacked confidence in the government’s ability to provide security. The35%of respondentswho said that they lacked confidence in the government’s ability toprovide security were asked what the government could do to increasetheir confidence. 32% said that the government should invite foreignsecurity agencies handle the situation; 20% said the governmentprovide more training for the police and provide them with modernequipments while 14% said the FG should increase the number of theNigerian police force in each state. However, 3% believes thatcreation of jobs will help reduce security problem while 2% believeimproving the salary of police officers will help them focus more onthe job, thereby reducing security threats as a result. Respondentsfor the snap polls were randomly selected from a database ofphone-owning Nigerians aged 18 and above across the six geopoliticalzones in the country. For this survey, 1155 people took part in thetelephone interviews conducted from the 3rdand 8thof August, 2011. For a sample of this size, we can say with 95%confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3percentage points. Thispoll is part of the ongoing snap poll exercise conducted by NOI Pollsto rapidly assesspublic sentiments following various social, political or economicevents. NOI Polls is aNigeria based opinion research organization, which worksin technical partnership with Gallup Polls (USA), to conduct periodicopinionpolls on various socioeconomic issues in Nigeria.
- The President’s Job Performance Rating Remains At 60% In November 2014
Abuja, Nigeria. December 2nd, 2014 – Latest governance poll results released by NOIPolls for the month of November 2014 revealed that 60% of adult Nigerians surveyed approved of the President’s job performance in the past 1 month; consistent with the 60% job approval rating recorded in October 2014. On the contrary 27% disapproved of the President’s performance while 13% neither approved nor disapproved of his performance as they remained neutral. Additionally, an evaluation of the President’s performance on key elements of his transformation agenda revealed a very good rating (4) in Health for the first time since January 2014. Also, the President performed averagely (3) in terms of his performance in Job Creation, Economy, Education, Agriculture & Food Security, Transportation and Foreign Policy & Diplomacy except for Security (1)and Power (1) in which he performed poorly. More finding indicated that 17% of adult Nigerians interviewed reported that power supply to their households ‘has improved very much’ while 30% acknowledged that ‘it has improved a little’ within the last one month. On the other hand, a further 19% of the respondents stated that power supply has “remained bad’ while 16% claimed “it’s very bad and has gone worse”. Furthermore, 18%indicated “there’s no difference at all” with regards to their power supply since it has neither improved nor worsened over the past one month. These are some of the key findings from the Governance Snap Pollconducted in the week of November 24th 2014. These results represent the eleventh in the 2014 monthly series of governance polls conducted by NOIPolls to gauge the opinions and perceptions of Nigerians regardingthe approval rating of the President, the performance of the President on key elements of his transformation agenda, and the state of power supply in the country. Respondents to the poll were asked three specific questions. The first sought to assess the opinion of Nigerians on the performance of President Goodluck Jonathan over the past 1 month. Respondents were asked: Do you approve or disapprove of the job performance of President Jonathan in the past 1 month? The result revealed that 60% (24%+36%) of adult Nigerians surveyed approved of the President’s job performance in the past 1 month. On the other hand, 27% (18%+9%) disapproved of the President’s job performance whereas, 13% neither approved nor disapproved of his performance. Assessing the President’s performance by geo-political zones indicated that the South-East zone accounted for the largest fraction (81%) of respondents who approve of the President’s job performance, followed by theSouth-South zone with 75% while the North-Central zone had 66% approving of his performance. Furthermore, responses when analysed by gender revealed that more female (66%) than male respondents(56%) approved of the president’s job rating, while analysis by age group revealed that respondents aged between 18 – 21 years accounted for the highest proportion of respondents who approved the President’s job performance in November 2014. Monthly trend analysis of the President’s approval rating reveals that the President’s approval rating remained constant at 60% in November 2014. This rating has remained the same after the significant 14-points decline in approval rating recorded in September 2014. In addition, the average rating of the President’s job performance over the eleven months in 2014 stands at 58.7% while the current result is slightly higher than the eleven months average (1.3-points). To gauge the performance of the President on pertinent elements of his transformation agenda, respondents were asked: On a scale of 1 to 5, where 1 is very poor and 5 is excellent, how would you rate the performance of the President in the following areas? (1) Job Creation (2) Power (3) Economy (4) Health (5) Education (6) Agriculture & Food Security (7) Transportation (8) Foreign Policy & Diplomacy and (9) Security. The outcome reveals that the President achieved an average (3) rating in terms of his performance in Job Creation, Economy, Education, Agriculture & Food Security, Transportation and Foreign Policy & Diplomacy while in Security and Power he was given a (1) rating representing a poor performance. These central components of the President’s transformation agenda have remained very poor in spite of the priority the administration has given to security[1] and power[2]. Additionally, for the first time since January 2014 health was given a very good rating of (4), signifying that Nigerians perceive that the President is performing well in this aspect of his transformation agenda. This can be expected following the governments response to the Ebola Virus Disease that resulted in the successful containment of the virus and Nigeria being certified Ebola free by the World Health Organization. Trend assessment indicates that the President’s performance rating on Economy, Transportation and Foreign Policy & Diplomacy has maintained an average ranking (3) since January 2014 while other aspects of his transformation agenda has been fluctuating (both below and above average). Health scored above average (4)attributing it to the relative calm noticed in the sector. On the contrary, the President’s performance rating on Security has remained very poor (1) since February 2014 and this is the only aspect of his transformation agenda that has constantly been rated poorly after it was ranked above average (4) in January 2014. Finally, to determine the state of power supply to Nigerian households over the past month respondents were asked: How would you describe power supply in your area in the last 1 month? Responses reveal that 17% of adult Nigerians reported that power supply to their households ‘has improved very much’ while30% acknowledged that ‘it has improved a little’ within the last one month. On the other hand, 19% of the respondents surveyed stated that power supply has “remained bad’ while 16% claimed “it’s very bad and has gone worse”, while Also, 18% recorded “there’s no difference at all” suggesting their power supply neither improved nor worsened over the past one month. Analysis by gender reveals that more female (50%) than male respondents (45%) claimed they experienced an improvement in power supply in their area. However, slightly more male (37%) than female (32%) described the power supply in the area over the past one month as inadequate. Monthly trend assessment reveals a substantial 11-points increase in the proportion of respondents that experienced an improvement in power supply to their households in November 2014. The average rating over the past 11 months January to November 2014 is 39.5%, while the current rating for the month of November is 7.5 points above the overall yearly average. In conclusion, 6 in 10 adult Nigerian approved of the President’s job performance in the past 1 month; the same proportion that approved of his job performance in the previous month of October . On the other hand, 27%disapproved of the President’s performance while 13% remained neutral. Furthermore, an evaluation of the President’s performance on key elements of his transformation agenda revealed that he achieved a very good rating (4) in Health for the first time since January 2014. According to result findings, the President performed averagely (3) in in Job Creation, Economy, Education, Agriculture & Food Security, Transportation and Foreign Policy & Diplomacy while he performed poorly in Security and Power receiving a (1) rating respectively. Finally, 47% of Nigerians surveyed acknowledged that they experienced an improvement in power supply in their household thus representing an 11-point increase from October 2014. Survey Methods The opinion poll was conducted in the week of November 24th 2014. It involved telephone interviews of a random nationwide sample. 1,000 randomly selected phone-owning Nigerians aged 18 years and above, representing the six geopolitical zones in the country, were interviewed. With a sample of this size, we can say with 95% confidence that the results obtained are statistically precise – within a range of plus or minus 3%. NOIPolls Limited, No1 for country specific polling services in West Africa, which works in technical partnership with the Gallup Organisation (USA), to conduct periodic opinion polls and studies on various socio-economic and political issues in Nigeria. More information is available at www.noi-polls.com Disclaimer This press release has been produced by NOIPolls Limited to provide information on all issues which form the subject matter of the document. Kindly note that while we are willing to share results from our polls with the general public, we only request that NOIPolls be acknowledged as author whenever and wherever our poll results are used, cited or published. NOIPolls hereby certifies that all the views expressed in this document accurately reflect its views of respondents surveyed for the poll, and background information is based on information from various sources that it believes are reliable; however, no representation is made that it is accurate or complete. Whilst reasonable care has been taken in preparing this document, no responsibility or liability is accepted for errors or fact or for any views expressed herein by NOIPolls for actions taken as a result of information provided in this report. Any ratings, forecasts, estimates, opinions or views herein constitute a judgment as at the date of this document. If the date of this document is not current, the views and content may not reflect NOIPolls’ current findings and/or thinking. Press Contact The Editor Email: editor@noi-polls.com [1] Federal Government accords top priority to security – The Honourable Minster of Defence [2] Power Sector Reform has been a key priority for this administration – The Roadmap to Power Sector Reform [ME1] [ME1]Suggestion: The results indicate that the President’s job performance for the month of November is slightly higher when compared across the 11months (1.3 points).
- President’s approval ratings on the decline in January 2013
Abuja, Nigeria. February 5, 2013 – Latest weekly poll results released by NOI Polls Limited show that 52% of Nigerians say the current administration has performed averagely while 50% (down from 65%) of Nigerians approve of the President’s performance in the month of January. These were two key findings from the governance polls conducted in the week of January 29th 2013. These results represent the first in the new monthly series of governance polls to be conducted by NOI Polls to gauge the opinions and perceptions of Nigerians regarding three key elements – the approval rating of the president, the performance of the current administration, and the state of power supply in the country. Respondents to the poll were asked three specific questions. The first question sought to gauge the approval rating of President Goodluck Jonathan over the past 1 month: Do you approve or disapprove of the performance of the president in the past 1 month? From the results, the majority (42%) stated that they approve of the President’s performance, followed by 27% who said they disapprove. Also, 20% of the respondents polled were neutral saying they neither approved nor disapproved, while 8% said they strongly approve, and 3% said they strongly disapproved. In general, despite the continued decline, about 50% of Nigerians (42% + 8%) approve the president’s performance in January. However, when these current figures are compared with results of a similar poll conducted in May 2012 (published in the Democracy Day Special newsletter), it shows a 15-point drop in the approval rating of President Goodluck Jonathan (from a total of 65% in May 2012 to 50% at present). Also, the proportion of Nigerians that disapprove of his performance has risen by 6-points from a total of 24% to 30%. These results clearly indicate that even though the majority of respondents (50%) currently approve of the President’s performance, his approval ratings remain on a decline. In 2010, when he assumed office, the results of the NOI-Gallup National Poll in October revealed that almost 8 in 10 Nigerians (79%) approved of the President. All three polls indicate a continuing decline in the president’s approval rating, from a total of 79% in October 2010 to 65% in May 2012, and now 50% in January 2013. However, to put these approval ratings in perspective, we took a look at the approval ratings polled by our partner Gallup USA for Obama; the US president averaged at 49% approval in his first term and had a 52% approval rating as at Feb 2nd 2013. Moving forward, the second question sought to gauge the opinions of Nigerians regarding the performance of the entire administration – the ministers at the federal level, and the governors and their respective cabinets at the state levels, down to local government administrators. Respondents were asked: How would you rate the performance of the current administration in the last month? In response, the majority (52%) said the administration has “performed averagely”, followed by 20% who are of the opinion that “they have performed very well”. In addition, 17% said “they have performed poorly”, while 8% said “they have performed very poorly” and 2% said “they have performed very well. Click here to view more analysis on Approval Ratings (January 2013)| File Size: 499 Kb / PDF A comparison with results from polls conducted in May and October 2012 indicate a 14-point increase in the proportion of Nigerians that think the current administration has performed well (from a total of 8% in October 2012 to 22% at present). However, the current rating still remains 19-points below the performance rating of the administration in May 2012 (a total of 41%). A trend observed from the polls is that while the approval rating of the president appears to be on a decline, the performance rating of the current administration seems to be on the increase. This may suggest that respondents tend to view the job of the president differently from how they view the performance of the current administration, particularly in states with governors who are perceived to be performing. The comparative results further show that there has been a 6-point increase in the proportion of respondents that think the administration has “performed averagely” (from 46% in October 2012 to 52% at present). There has also been a 17-point decline in the percentage of Nigerians that think the current administration has performed poorly (from a total of 42% in October 2012 to 25% at present). Finally, given the mixed reactions that have trailed President Goodluck Jonathan’s interview with CNN’s Christiane Amanpour, the third question sought to investigate the assertion of the President that “Nigerians are quite pleased with the improvement in power”. On this, respondents were asked: How would you describe power supply in your area where you live in the last 1 month? The majority (38%) of respondents stated that power supply “has improved a little”, 9% of the respondents said power supply “has improved very much”, followed by 23% who said “there’s no difference at all”. Also, 17% said that power supply “remains bad”, while 13% said “it’s very bad and has gone worse”. In general, a total of 47% (38% + 9%) are of the opinion that power has improved, thus providing some support to the President’s assertion. However, a 53% majority think that they have either experienced no difference in their power supply or that it remains bad and has gone worse. Looking across the geo-political zones, there are a few differences highlighted by the results. The North-East zone has the highest proportion of residents (39%) who said “there’s no difference at all” in their power supply; while the South-East, South-South, North-West and South-West zones have the highest proportion of residents (17%) that said power supply “has improved a little”. It is interesting to note that only 30% of respondents in the North-Central zone, where the seat of power is located, said that power supply has improved a little. In conclusion, the poll results show that the majority of Nigerians currently approve of the job performance of President Goodluck Jonathan even though his approval rating has dropped by 15% from last year. Also, more Nigerians think the current administration is doing an average to good job in terms of its current performance and also there has been an improvement in this performance compared to last year. Finally, most Nigerians irrespective of geo political zone agree that power supply in their areas have improved a little. However with a declining approval rate, the president would need to address the areas of governance that are of key concern to Nigerians. As highlighted by our New Year poll; majority of Nigerians (24%) are of the opinion that the most important issue the President needs to address is the issue of unemployment, followed by improving electricity supply (18%), tackling insecurity (17%) and eradicating corruption (10%). Survey Methods The opinion poll was conducted between January 29th and 30th 2013. It involved telephone interviews of a random nationwide sample. 526 randomly selected phone-owning Nigerians aged 18 years and above, representing the six geopolitical zones in the country, were interviewed. With a sample of this size, we can say with 95% confidence that the results obtained are statistically precise – within a range of plus or minus 4%. NOI Polls Limited is Nigeria’s leading opinion polling and research organisation, which works in technical partnership with the Gallup Organisation (USA), to conduct periodic opinion polls and studies on various socio-economic and political issues in Nigeria. More information is available at www.noi-polls.com Disclaimer This press release has been produced by NOI Polls Limited to provide information on all issues which form the subject matter of the document. Kindly note that while we are willing to share results from our polls with the general public, we only request that NOI Polls be acknowledged as author whenever and wherever our poll results are used, cited or published. NOI Polls hereby certifies that all the views expressed in this document accurately reflect its views of respondents surveyed for the poll, and background information is based on information from various sources that it believes are reliable; however, no representation is made that it is accurate or complete. Whilst reasonable care has been taken in preparing this document, no responsibility or liability is accepted for errors or fact or for any views expressed herein by NOI Polls for actions taken as a result of information provided in this report. Any ratings, forecasts, estimates, opinions or views herein constitute a judgment as at the date of this document. If the date of this document is not current, the views and content may not reflect NOI Polls’ current findings and/or thinking. Press Contact The Editor Email: editor@noi-polls.com









