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- Above Official Price of N50, Most Nigerians Buy Kerosene At N137 Per Litre
Abuja, Nigeria. January 20th, 2015 – Poll results released by NOIPolls Limited have revealed that majority of Nigerians (97%) buy Dual Purpose Kerosene (DPK) popularly known as Kerosene above the official price for N50 per litre leaving only a meagre proportion (2%) who confirmed they bought the product at the official price. The poll further revealed that almost 8 in 10 Nigerians (77%) are unaware of the official price of kerosene; demonstrating that the subsidy enjoyed by Nigerians on Petrol has not really impacted Kerosene. Interestingly, more female (83%) than male (70%) respondents are unaware of the official price of Kerosene; even though more females actually buy and make use of it for Cooking (97%). An assessment of the use of kerosene in Nigeria revealed that 65% of Nigerians buy kerosene, and it is mainly used for cooking (96%). Affordability, availability and convenience play a great role in the preference of Kerosene as a means for cooking, over other choices such as cooking gas, charcoal or firewood. Also, Kerosene can be bought in small quantities depending on the buying power of the individual, unlike gas where the lowest quantity that can be purchased is the 3kg camp gas cylinder which typically costs between N1000-N1200 per refill. Finally, these findings clearly demonstrate that most of the marketers do not sell kerosene at the official price and this calls for more strict regulation and closer monitoring by regulatory organisations in ensuring that Nigerians enjoy the subsidy on kerosene at the official price. Also, awareness needs to be created by the Government on the official price of kerosene, especially in the rural areas. This can be done through sensitization events, radio jingles and television adverts amongst other means, and tailored in the major languages of each region. These were the key findings from the Kerosene Poll conducted in 2014. Brief Background Majority of Nigerians use kerosene for various daily activities. According to Index Mundi, the kerosene consumption by year has ebbed and flowed between 1986 and 2010; however between 1996 and 2010 consumption has dipped considerably[2]. This doesn’t change the fact that the demand on kerosene remains high. In meeting up with this demand, the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC), and its downstream subsidiary, the Pipelines and Products Marketing Company (PPMC), assured Nigerians that there is adequate supply of Dual Purpose kerosene (DPK).[3] They indicated that this supply is beyond the daily national demand in the country. However, major problems still trail the kerosene market. The official price of kerosene is N50, however many Nigerians reveal that they buy kerosene above the official price. According to the NNPC, only NNPC Retail and a few outlets sell DPK at the government approved price of N50 per litre, while other marketers who purchase the product from PPMC at government regulated price of N40.90 sell above the recommended price.[4][4] Despite the one trillion naira allegedly spent on subsidizing kerosene[5][5] in the last four years, Nigeria still struggles with providing kerosene at an affordable rate and in sufficient quantity in the market place. Against this background, and in line with its Petrol Monitoring Polls conducted from 2013 to 2014, NOIPolls conducted the Kerosene poll in 2014. The poll was aimed at evaluating the perception of Nigerians towards kerosene consumption, purchase, usage, and pricing in Nigeria. Survey Findings Respondents to the poll were asked six specific questions. In order to find out those who buy kerosene, respondents were asked: “Do you buy kerosene?” Respondentswho answered ‘No’ to the question had their survey terminated, while those who responded with a ‘Yes’ completed the poll. Results show that 65% of Nigerians buy kerosene, and 35% do not. To ascertain the location of purchase, respondents were asked: Where do you mainly buy kerosene? Results show that most Nigerians (35%) who buy kerosene do so at Independent Marketer filling stations. This is followed by kerosene hawkers with 23% of respondents; Small retail shops, with 21% of respondents; and Major marketer filling stations with 20% of the general population. More males purchase kerosene from Independent and Major Marketer filling stations (with 38% and 24% of respondents respectively); however more females purchase kerosene from hawkers and retail shops (with 25% and 26% respectively). Most residents who buy kerosene in the North-Central (with 45% of residents), South-East (with 53% of residents), and South-South (with 43% of residents) regions purchase kerosene from Independent Marketer filling stations. Procurement of kerosene from hawkers was highest (by proportion of the population that buys the product) in the North-East (40%). Most residents, who purchase kerosene in the South-West region, buy from Independent Marketer filling stations and Major marketer filling stations; 36% and 33% respectively. The source of obtaining kerosene seems to be most diverse in the North-West, with 31% of respondents buying kerosene from Small retail shops, 31% buying from kerosene hawkers, 27% of residents purchase it from Independent Marketer filling stations, and 11% obtain kerosene from major marketer filling stations. In a bid to assess what consumers use kerosene for, respondents were asked: “What do you normally use kerosene for?” This was an open-ended question, and responses were grouped into general categories. It is also possible for respondents to provide multiple responses, thereby placing their responses in different categories. Results show that an overwhelming majority (96%) of Nigerians who purchase kerosene use it for cooking. 6% of the aforementioned population use it to power their lamps, and 3% buy kerosene to re-sell it. A larger proportion of females (97%) than males (94%) who buy kerosene use it for cooking, although a slightly larger proportion of males (4%) buy kerosene for retail purposes than females (1%). In order to measure the level of awareness of the official price of kerosene among the product consumers, respondents were asked: “Do you know what the official price of kerosene is per litre?” Most respondents (77%) indicated they were not aware of the official price of kerosene. Analysing by gender, we find more females (83%) than males (70%) are not aware of the official price of kerosene per litre. The North-Central and South-South zones boast the highest proportion of residents, 40% and 31% respectively, who are knowledgeable of the official price of kerosene per litre. We expected that the residents who are familiar with the official price of kerosene are those who purchase the product from major marketer filling stations (Comparing results in Question 2 and 4), but this is not exactly the case as the zones with the highest proportion of residents, South-West (33%) and South-East (24%)[1][6], who purchase kerosene from major marketers are not identical with the zones that have the highest proportion of residents that know the official price of kerosene. Subsequently, respondents were asked, “How much do you buy kerosene per litre (in Naira)?” There were three main categories to the question: Below ₦50, ₦50, and above ₦50. Respondents were also expected to state the amount they bought a litre of kerosene for. On average, Nigerians paid ₦137 for a litre of kerosene nationwide. The average price at which females (₦139) purchased a litre of kerosene is slightly higher than the price at which males (₦135) bought a litre of kerosene. Across the geo-political zones kerosene was purchased at ₦155 in the North-West, North-East, and South-East zones, the highest across all zones. Kerosene was purchased at an average of ₦129 in the South-West region, the lowest across all geo-political zones. In conclusion, in spite of the high level of unawareness about the official price of kerosene (77% of Nigerians are unaware), 97% of Nigerians pay above the official price, while only a small proportion of respondents (2%)confirmed they pay N50 per litre for kerosene. In addition, all respondents from the South-East zone (100%)indicated they purchase kerosene above the official price, and this is closely followed by the North-West zone(99%). More findings revealed that 96% of Nigerians who buy kerosene use it for cooking while 6% use kerosene to fuel their lamps. From the population that buys kerosene, the North-Central zone (99%) and South-South zones (98%) make up the highest proportion of Nigerians who use kerosene for cooking, while the South-South (10%), North-East (8%) and South-East (8%) zones make up the highest proportion of Nigerians who use kerosene for lamps. Survey Methods The opinion poll was conducted in 2014. It involved telephone interviews of a random nationwide sample of phone-owning Nigerians aged 18 years and above, representing the six geopolitical zones in the country, were interviewed. NOIPolls Limited, No1 for country specific polling services in West Africa, which works in technical partnership with the Gallup Organisation (USA), to conduct periodic opinion polls and studies on various socio-economic and political issues in Nigeria. More information is available at www.noi-polls.com Disclaimer This press release has been produced by NOIPolls Limited to provide information on all issues which form the subject matter of the document. Kindly note that while we are willing to share results from our polls with the general public, we only request that NOIPolls be acknowledged as author whenever and wherever our poll results are used, cited or published. NOIPolls hereby certifies that all the views expressed in this document accurately reflect its views of respondents surveyed for the poll, and background information is based on information from various sources that it believes are reliable; however, no representation is made that it is accurate or complete. Whilst reasonable care has been taken in preparing this document, no responsibility or liability is accepted for errors or fact or for any views expressed herein by NOIPolls for actions taken as a result of information provided in this report. Any ratings, forecasts, estimates, opinions or views herein constitute a judgment as at the date of this document. If the date of this document is not current, the views and content may not reflect NOIPolls’ current findings and/or thinking.
- NOIPolls Portfolio of Indices – December 2014
Abuja, Nigeria. January 13th, 2015 –The Portfolio of Indices results released by NOIPolls Limited for the month of December 2014 revealed that the NOIPolls Personal Well-Being Index (PWBI) increased by 1.6-points to stand at 46.7-points in December 2014; representing its peak since January 2014. All the indices that makeup the PWBI experienced an increase except the Social Interaction Index which recorded a slight 0.1-pointdecline to stand at 79.3-points. More findings revealed that the NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for December 2014 declined by 1.3-points to stand at 67.4-points from 68.8-points in November 2014; this figure represents the lowest since January 2014. The two indicators of the CCI which are the Present Situation Index(PSI) and the Expectation Index (EI) experienced an increase by 1.3-points and a decrease by 3.4-pointsrespectively. Furthermore, findings revealed a high decline in the Expectation of prices of goods and services index by 17.1-points, while the highest increase was experienced by the Current prices of goods and services index with3.6-points in December 2014. These are the key highlights from the December Portfolio of Indices Result Release. In February 2014, NOIPolls Limited introduced its portfolio of indices; the NOIPolls Personal Well-Being Index (PWBI), the NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) and the NOIPolls Eagle 30 Business Confidence Index (EBCI). The NOIPolls Personal Well-Being Index measures factors impacting on the lives of everyday Nigerians; thereby producing a complete view of the individual’s personal well-being. The NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index provides consumer assessments of the economic situation and their intentions and expectations for the future. The NOIPolls Eagle 30 Business Confidence Index measures business leaders’ perceptions and expectations about the Nigerian business environment using the top 30 companies in the country. Nigerian businesses, financial and government agencies largely depend on their perceptions and micro assessment of consumers’ expectation in making decisions. At best, they draw conclusion on the business environment based on information from their immediate surroundings, while the minorities conduct surveys that are time and money consuming. However, the introduction of these indices provides indicators that will ensure stakeholders can detect and respond to changes in consumer behavior, the economy, and the business environment in Nigeria. This report presents the December 2014 results for the NOIPolls Personal Well-Being Index (PWBI) and NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index (CCI). The NOIPolls Personal Well-Being Index (PWBI) The NOIPolls Personal Well-Being Index for December 2014 increased by 1.6-point to stand at 46.7-points. This represents the highest increase in the NOIPOlls PWBI since January 2014. Analysis of the individual indicators revealed differences in perception and satisfaction of Nigerians on several aspects of their lives. Nigerians are most satisfied in terms of Physical Health (78.1-points), Social Interaction (79.3-points),andReligion(89.8-points). Nigerians are rather neutral in terms of Standard of Living (55.9-points),Achievement in Life(57.3-points) and Personal Security (62.2-points), while Nigerians are not satisfied with their Personal Economic Situation (45.2-points). This index has for over twelve months remained the lowest ranked indicator. Monthly trend analysis indicates that only 1 of the indicators Social interaction (0.1-point)) that makeup thePWBI experienced a decline, while other indicators including ‘Standard of living’ (3.7-points), ‘Health’ (0.7-point), ‘Achievement in life’ (2.4-points), ‘Personal security’ (4.9-points), ‘Religion’ (1.1-point), ‘Economic situation’ (4.7-points) experienced an increase in the month of December 2014. More findings from trend analysis show that the NOIPolls PWBI experienced an increase of 1.6-point inDecember 2014, making it the highest NOIPolls PWBI point attained in 2014. Additionally, the PWBI average since January 2014 is 43.4-points and the current PWBI for the month of November 2014 is 3.3-pointsabove the yearly average. Please click here to see the full (PWBI) report The NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) The NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index for December 2014 declines to 67.4-points. This figure represents a1.4-points decrease in the CCI from November 2014, although, it still shows relative consumer satisfaction and also infers that Nigerians are positive about their current situation and optimistic for a promising future. The NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index is made-up of 2 independent variables; the Present Situation Index(PSI) and Expectation Index (EI). The PSI increased by 1.3-points to stand at 59.9-points, revealing that Nigerians are not too confident of the present economic situation. Also, the EI declined by 3.4-points to currently stand at 73-points, implying that consumers are somewhat hopeful about the future. Further trend analysis revealed that the current result represent the lowest CCI from January 2014 with the highest recorded in January 2014. The average CCI for 2014 (January to December) stood at 72.1-points, inferring that the CCI for December 2014 is 4.7-points below the yearly average. Please click here to see the full (CCI) report. In conclusion, Portfolio of Indices results have revealed that the NOIPolls Personal Well-Being Index (PWBI)increased by 1.6-points to stand at 46.7-points in December 2014, making it the highest NOIPolls PWBIattained in 2014. More findings revealed that there was a slight 0.1-point decrease in only 1 of the indicators thatmake up the PWBI, which is the ‘Social interaction’, while other indicators increased in December 2014. Comparably, the NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index for December 2014 decreased by 1.4-points to stand at67.4-points; this represents the lowest figure since January 2014. In line with this, the Present Situation Index(PSI) increase by 1.3-points, while the Expectation Index (EI) decreased by 3.4-point in December 2014;while the average CCI for 2014 (January to December) stood at 72.1-points. Survey Methods The Personal Well-Being Index and Consumer Confidence Index Polls were conducted in the month of December2014. The PWBI involved telephone interviews of a random nationwide sample. 1,000 randomly selected phone-owning Nigerians aged 18 years and above, representing the six geopolitical zones in the country, were interviewed. With a sample of this size, we can say with 95% confidence that the results obtained are statistically precise – within a range of plus or minus 3%. In addition the CCI involved telephone interviews of a random nationwide sample. 4,000 randomly selected phone-owning Nigerians aged 18 years and above, representing the six geopolitical zones in the country, were interviewed. With a sample of this size, we can say with 95% confidence that the results obtained are statistically precise – within a range of plus or minus 2%. NOIPolls Limited, No1 for country specific polling services in West Africa, which works in technical partnership with the Gallup Organisation (USA), to conduct periodic opinion polls and studies on various socio-economic and political issues in Nigeria. More information is available at www.noi-polls.com Disclaimer This press release has been produced by NOIPolls Limited to provide information on all issues which form the subject matter of the document. Kindly note that while we are willing to share results from our polls with the general public, we only request that NOIPolls be acknowledged as author whenever and wherever our poll results are used, cited or published. NOIPolls hereby certifies that all the views expressed in this document accurately reflect its views of respondents surveyed for the poll, and background information is based on information from various sources that it believes are reliable; however, no representation is made that it is accurate or complete. Whilst reasonable care has been taken in preparing this document, no responsibility or liability is accepted for errors or fact or for any views expressed herein by NOIPolls for actions taken as a result of information provided in this report. Any ratings, forecasts, estimates, opinions or views herein constitute a judgment as at the date of this document. If the date of this document is not current, the views and content may not reflect NOIPolls’ current findings and/or thinking. Press Contact The Editor Email: editor@noi-polls.com
- Security and Job Creation; Top Key Issues Nigerians Want the President to Focus On In 2015
Abuja, Nigeria. January 13th, 2015 The Annual New Year Special Edition Snap Poll conducted by NOIPolls revealed that most Nigerians (81%) indicated they experienced enjoyable holidays over Christmas and New Year and this proportion has increased over the past 3 years. In addition, most Nigerians stayed back at their respective places of residence to enjoy the Christmas and New Year holidays instead of travelling. However, the reverse was the case for the larger proportion of the South-East residents who utilized the holidays to travel to various locations (69%). This probably stimulated a more positive experience as 61% of South East residents confirmed their holiday was very enjoyable. Given the general increase in prices of goods and services which mostly characterizes festive periods in Nigeria, the slight majority (52%) of Nigerians who travelled for the festive holidays reported a rise in the cost of transportation; although this was a slight decline in the proportion of Nigerians who were affected by this from the previous year 2014. Also the larger proportion of Nigerians (69%) who travelled reported an improvement in the roads when asked to evaluate their experiences with the Nigerian roads during their journey; this however indicates a 6-point decline from 2014. In an assessment of the state of security across the country during the holidays, most Nigerians reported the environment where they spent the holidays as ‘peaceful and secure’, although a considerable proportion of the North-East residents considered their environment ‘peaceful but not secure’ and ‘tense and insecure’ during the holiday. Finally, in areas for focus by the President in 2015, most Nigerians would like the President to focus on ‘Security’especially in the North East region, followed by ‘Job Creation’ and ‘Electricity’. While Job Creation was top priority to Nigerians in 2013 and 2014, Security has become paramount for Nigerians given its current state and ill effect in the nation. Survey Background and Objectives The New Year celebration in Nigeria is one of the most important and prominently celebrated events in the country often characterized by diverse activities such as the Lagos State Countdown which ushered in the New Year. One would clearly draw a precise picture of the rich heritage, culture, custom and tradition of the country during the time of New Year.[1][1] While Nigerians ushered in 2015 with great excitement and optimism as well as resolutions to be better individuals, great expectations also lies in the government to focus on key areas to create desired socio-economic changes that would stimulate development of the nation as well as affect the lives of the citizens positively while making the year a remarkable one. One of which would generally be in the aspect of security given its current state in the country especially in the Northeast zone.[2][2] Against this background, NOIPolls conducted its Annual New Year Special Edition Snap Poll to explore the experiences of Nigerians during the Christmas and New Year holidays, as well as gauge their expectations for 2015. This is the third in the series of New Year polls following those conducted in 2013 and 2014. Survey Methodology The New Year opinion poll involving telephone interviews of a random nationwide sample was conducted in the week of January 6th 2015. Proportionate random sampling was used to select 1,000 phone-owning Nigerians aged 18 years and above, representing the six geopolitical zones in the country. With a sample of this size, we can say with 95% confidence that the results obtained are statistically precise – within a range of plus or minus 3%. The interviews were conducted in English, Pidgin English, Hausa, Igbo and Yoruba in order to reduce non-response bias in the sample. Survey Results Respondents to the poll were asked six specific questions and this section presents detailed survey findings from these questions. Festive Season Experience With the aim of exploring the experiences of Nigerians during the festive season, respondents were asked: In general, how would you describe your Christmas and New Year holiday? Findings revealed the majority of Nigerians 81% (43%+38%) enjoyed the Christmas and New Year holiday describing it as either very enjoyable or enjoyable. This cuts across all regions and age-groups as shown in figure 1 with the South-East zone having the largest proportion of residents that confirmed their holiday was very enjoyable (61%). In addition, 12% of Nigerians reported their holiday was okay and 7% (6%+1%) indicated it was not enjoyable with the South-South accounting for the largest proportion of respondents in this category (10%). Trend analysis reveals that the proportion of Nigerians that experienced an enjoyable Christmas and New Year holiday has increased steadily over the 3 year period to 81% in 2015 compared to 79% in 2014 and 62% in2013. Travelling During the Christmas and New Year Holidays Next, respondents were asked: Did you travel for the Christmas and New Year holidays? Responses show that most Nigerians did not travel during the holidays (64%) while 36% confirmed they traveled to various locations during the festive holidays which witnessed a high proportion of residents from the South –East zone (69%) confirming they had travelled. Furthermore, there was a 7-point increase in the proportion of Nigerians who travelled during the festive holidays (36%) as opposed to 29% who had indicated they had plans to travel as revealed in the NOIPolls Annual Special End of Year poll.[1][3 Similarly, a 3-year trend revealed a 6-point drop in the proportion of Nigerians that travelled during the 2015festive season compared with the previous year 2014. Transportation Cost during the Holidays Festive periods in Nigeria are generally characterized by increases in the prices of goods and services and to assess if this was the case for the cost of transportation, respondents who travelled during the festive holidays (36% of the total) were asked: Did you experience any increase in the cost of transportation during the holidays? Findings revealed that slightly more than half of Nigerians (52%) who traveled during the festive holidays experienced an increase in the cost of transportation. Again this was mostly experienced by residents of the South-East region as a higher proportion of Nigerians in this region travelled during the holidays. Further analysis by age revealed that respondents aged 18-29 years reported an increase in the cost of transportation during the festive holidays more than any other age-group. Trend analysis revealed a slight 3-point decline in the proportion of Nigerians who reported they experienced an increase in the cost of transportation during the 2014/2015 festive holidays compared with the previous year. State Of Nigerian Roads With the aim of evaluating the current state of Nigerian roads, respondents who travelled (36% of the total)were further asked: Compared to previous years, how would you describe the state of Nigerian roads while travelling for the holiday? Survey findings revealed that the larger share of Nigerians that travelled (40%) indicated that the state of Nigerian roads has ‘Improved a little’ compared to previous years. On the other hand, 29% of Nigerians indicated that the roads has ‘improved very much’ while 15% of Nigerians claimed that ‘There’s no difference at all’ on the roads. Analyzing by age-group, the majority of Nigerians who are of the opinion that Nigerian roads ‘has improved a little’ were within the age bracket 61 years and above. Also, respondents that are of the opinion the roads have improved very much were mostly within the ages 30-45 years. Also, the majority of Nigerians that consider the roads as ‘very bad’ or ‘no difference at all’ in its state compared to the preceding years are within the age bracket 18-21 years and 46-60 years respectively. Meanwhile, analyzing by geo-political zone, South-West has the highest proportion of Nigerians who consider the roads to have improved very much. While North-west has the largest percentage of Nigerians that believe the Nigerian road has remained bad since the previous years. Trend analysis on the state of Nigerian roads reveals the proportion of Nigerians who indicated the roads to have improved very much increased by 16-points in 2014 and declined by 2-points in 2015. Similarly, this applies to the proportion of Nigerians who indicated no difference at all on the state of Nigerian roads with a 7-pointsdecline in 2014 and a 4-points increase in 2015. On the hand, the proportion of Nigerians who indicated the roads ‘have improved a little’ declined by 9-pointsin 2014 and further declined by 4-points in 2015. While, the proportion of Nigerians that indicated the roads have ‘remained bad’ compared to the previous years, increased by 4- points in 2014 and further increased by 2-points in 2015. Meanwhile, the proportion of Nigerians who consider the state of the Nigerian roads as being‘very bad or has gone worse’ declined by 4-points in 2014 and has remained stable till date. This findings therefore indicateZXs that while there was significant improvement on the Nigerian roads from 2013 to 2014, there has little or no improvement in their current state State of Security across Nigeria during the Festive Holiday With the aim of assessing the security state of Nigerians’ residence, respondents were asked: How would you describe the state of security where you spent the Holiday? Findings from the survey revealed that most Nigerians (85%) found the location where they spent the holidays ‘peaceful and secure’. Furthermore, 10%indicated that their environment was ‘peaceful but not secure’while 5% described it as ‘tense and insecure’. Across the geo-political zones, the North-Central has the largest proportion of Nigerians who indicated having a ‘peaceful and a secure’ environment during the holiday (96%). Meanwhile, North-East has the largest proportion of residents that indicated having a ‘peaceful but not secure’ environment (22%) and those that indicated it was a ‘tense and insecure’ (14%). Trend analysis on the state of security reveals a 15-points increase in 2014 and a slight 2-points decline in2015 in the number of Nigerians who indicated having a ‘peaceful and secure’ environment during the holiday. In general, this implies that most Nigerians still believe that their environment is ‘peaceful and secure’ even though the proportion of Nigerians dropped slightly in 2015. Meanwhile, the proportion of Nigerians that indicated having a ‘peaceful but not secure’ environment declined by11-points in 2014, and further declined by 1-point in 2015. In addition to this, the number of Nigerians that claimed to have a ‘tense and insecure’ environment during the holiday dropped by 3-points in 2014 and then increased by 3-points in 2015. Key Areas Nigerians want the President to Focus On In a bid to ascertain the opinion of the public on the key areas that needs to be focused on in 2015, respondents were asked: What are the three key areas you would like the President to focus his attention to this year 2015? Survey findings revealed that the 3 key areas Nigerians would like the president to focus on are‘Security’(25%), followed by ‘Job creation’ (15%) and ‘Electricity’ (13%). Across geo-political zones, the northern region particularly the North-East, has the highest proportion of Nigerians that indicated ‘security’ as a key area the President needs to focus on in 2015. This is not surprising considering the spate of terrorist attacks in North –East region towards the end of 2014. Also, North-East zone has the highest proportion of Nigerians that indicated ‘Electricity’ as a key area that needs attention. On the other hand, South-South residents indicated ‘Job Creation’ as an area that needs the President’s attention. Yearly trend analysis on the key areas the government needs to focus attention on reveals that while ‘Job creation’and Electricity were of priority to Nigerians in 2013 and 2014, ‘Security’ has become paramount for Nigerians in 2015 due its current state and ill effects in the nation. Though ‘Job creation’ and ‘Electricity are still of great importance to Nigerians in 2015, however attention on these have decreased over the years. Conclusion The Annual New Year Special Edition Poll released by NOIPolls revealed that most Nigerians (81%) enjoyed the festive holidays. A three (3)-year trend analysis revealed that more Nigerians reported they experienced an enjoyable Christmas and New Year holiday in 2015 (81%) than in 2014 (79%). More findings revealed that most (64%) Nigerians did not travel during the festive holidays while 36% of Nigerians especially South-East residents (69%) confirmed they traveled to various locations during the festive holidays. The slight majority of Nigerians who travelled for the festive holidays reported an increase in the cost of transportation; they also reported an improvement in Nigerian roads. Furthermore findings from the poll revealed that most Nigerians found the environment where they spent the holidays very ‘peaceful and secure’. Though, the North-East region has the largest proportion of residents that indicated ‘peaceful but not secure’ and ‘tense and insecure’ environments during the holiday. Finally, an assessment of the key areas of focus for the President revealed that most Nigerians would like the President to focus on ‘Security’ especially in theNorth-East region, followed by ‘Job Creation’ and‘Electricity’ in 2015.
- The President’s Job Performance Drops By 5-Points to 55% in December 2014
Abuja, Nigeria. January 6th, 2015– Latest governance poll results released by NOIPolls for the month ofDecember 2014 revealed that about 5 in 10 (55%) adult Nigerians surveyed approved of the President’s job performance in the past 1 month; this represents a 5-points decline from November 2014. This decline may be attributed to the changing perceptions of Nigerians resident in three (3) geo-political zones; the North-East (23-points decline), North-Central (14-points decline) and North-West (10-points decline) of which these regions witnessed a series of violent attacks in some major cities towards the end of 2014. A notable instance is the attack by two suicide bombers at a market in Nigeria’s second-largest city, Kano[1] which took place in December 2014 barely less than two weeks after multiple explosions rocked the Kano Central Mosque, killing about 200 people in late November 2014.[2] Similarly, a twin suicide bombing in a crowded marketplace in Jos which left at least 31 people dead was also recorded in December 2014[3]. More findings revealed that27%; (17%+10%) of Nigerians disapproved of the President’s job performance, while 18% remained neutral as they neither approved nor disapproved of his performance. Furthermore yearly trend analysis revealed that the average approval rating for the President for 2014 stood at58%; this figure indicates a 9-points increase in positive perception of Nigerians with regards to the job performance of the Presidentwhen compared to the average in 2013 which stood at 49%. An assessment of the President’s performance in key areas of his transformation agenda revealed that the President achieved an average (3) rating in terms of his performance in Job Creation, Economy, Education, Agriculture & Food Security, Transportation and Foreign Policy & Diplomacy; however, he was rated poorly in Security (1) and Power (1). More findings revealed that power supply to Nigerian households worsened in December 2014compared to November as there was a substantial 8-points decrease in the proportion of Nigerians who saw an improvement in power supply, although a comparison of power supply in 2013 and 2014 revealed a slight improvement in power supply in 2014. These were some of the key findings from the Governance Snap Pollconducted in the week of December 15th 2014. These results represent the twelfth in the 2014 monthly series of governance polls conducted by NOIPolls to gauge the opinions and perceptions of Nigerians regardingthe approval rating of the President, the performance of the President on key elements of his transformation agenda, and thestate of power supply in the country. Respondents to the poll were asked three specific questions. The first sought to assess the opinion of Nigerians on the performance of President Goodluck Jonathan over the past 1 month. Respondents were asked: Do you approve or disapprove of the job performance of President Jonathan in the past 1 month?The result revealed that about 5 in 10 (55%; 20%+35%) adult Nigerians surveyed approved of the President’s job performance in the past 1 month. On the contrary, 27% (17%+10%) disapproved of the president’s job performance whereas, 18% remained neutral as they neither approved nor disapproved of his performance. An assessment of the President’s performance by geo-political zones indicated that the South-Eastzone accounted for the largest proportion (83%) of respondents who approved of the President’s job performance.The highest percentage of neutrality (28%)came from the North-East zone while, the North-West zone accounted for the largest proportion of Nigerians who disapproved of the President’s performance. Furthermore analysis by age group revealed that the President’s approval increased with older respondents as his approval rating was highest amongst Nigerians aged 46 years and above. [1] http://www.vanguardngr.com/2014/12/two-female-suicide-bombers-4-others-die-kano-market-blast/ [2] http://www.vanguardngr.com/2014/11/bomb-blasts-kill-200-kano-central-mosque/ [3] http://leadership.ng/news/394571/32-killed-twin-explosions-rock-jos Comparing the President’s job approval rating by geo-political zone for Q4 2014 indicated a significant 5-points decline in his approval rating as a result of a shift in opinions on Nigerians from the three (3) aforementioned geo-political zones in December 2014. The North-East zone accounted for the highest decrease (23-poimts) from November 2014. This was followed by substantial decreases in the North-Central (14-points) and North-West (10-points) respectively. These three (3) geo-political zones accounted for the largest proportion of Nigerians surveyed whose opinion of the President’s job performance changed from approval to disapproval, hence, a 5-points overall decline in the President’s job rating inDecember 2014. Monthly trend analysis of the President’s approval rating revealed that the President’s approval rating declined by 5-points in December 2014 from November 2014; it is also the second time this rating has experienced a drop since the peak observed in September 2014. Furthermore, the President generally received higher approval ratings in 2014 compared with similar months in 2013. His highest approval rating for 2014 was recorded at 74% in September 2014 and his lowest at 49% in April 2014; comparatively, his highest in 2013 was recorded at 57% in August 2013 and the lowest at 40% in December 2013. A common trend in the approval rating of the President for both years (2013 and 2014) is a decline in the approval rating of the President towards the end of both years. Yearly trend analysis indicates that the overall perception of Nigerians towards the president’s job performance in 2014 is higher by 9-points at 58%, when compared to 2013; implying that Nigerians were comparatively more positive about the achievement of the President in 2014 than in 2013. This change in perception could have been stimulated by several achievements recorded through the year 2014 in the midst of challenges such as insecurity. For instance, September 2014 which recorded the highest approval for the President that could also be attributed to the successful management of the Ebola Virus Disease stimulated a positive perception of Nigerians on the President’s performance among other achievements in 2014. To gauge the performance of the president on pertinent elements of his transformation agenda, respondents were asked: On a scale of 1 to 5, where 1 is very poor and 5 is excellent, how would you rate the performance of the President Jonathan in the following areas? (1) Job Creation (2) Power (3) Economy (4) Health (5) Education (6) Agriculture & Food Security (7) Transportation (8) Foreign Policy & Diplomacy and (9) Security. The result reveals that the President achieved an average(3) rating in terms of his performance in Job Creation, Economy, Education, Agriculture & Food Security, Transportation and Foreign Policy & Diplomacy; however, he was rated poorly in Security (1) and Power (1). These central components of his transformation agenda has remained very poor despite priority given to security and power by his administration. Additionally, the President received a very good (4) rating in health consecutively in the last two months (November and December 2014), indicating positive perception of Nigerians in this aspect of his transformation agenda. Trend assessment indicates that the President’s performance rating on Economy, Education, Transportation and Foreign Policy & Diplomacy has maintained an average ranking (3) since January 2014, while other aspects of his transformation agenda have not been consistent over twelve months. Health maintained a score above average (4) for the second time, probably due to the relative good performance achieved in the sector following the successful handling of the Ebola Virus Disease. On the contrary, the President’s performance rating on Security has remained very poor (1) since February 2014. This is the only aspect of his transformation agenda that has consistently been rated poorly since January 2014. Finally, to assess the state of power supply to Nigerian households over the past month, respondents were asked:How would you describe power supply in your area in the last 1 month? Responses revealed that majority (30%) of respondents surveyed reported power supply ‘has improved a little’, while 9% affirmed ‘it has improved very much’, On the contrary, other respondents claimed that it has either ‘remained bad’ (23%) or‘has gone worse’ (19%) over the past 1 month. In addition, 19% confirmed that “there’s no difference at all” in power supply to their households over the past 1 month. Analysis from the geo-political zone standpoint indicates that the South-South zone has the largest proportion of Nigerians who experienced improved power supply over the past 1 month; whereas, the North-East zone has largest proportion of respondents who stated there is no difference at all in power supply when compared to 1 month ago. However, the South-West zone accounted for the largest proportion of Nigerians who claimed that power supply worsened over the past 1 month. The monthly trend evaluation for 2014 reveals a significant 8-points decrease in power supply in December 2014 when compared to the previous month of November 2014. Furthermore, an evaluation of power improvement from 2013 to 2014 revealed more improvement in power supply in 2014 where the highest for 2014 was recorded at 52% in September 2014 and the highest for 2013 was recorded at 44% in January 2013. The yearly average of power supply improvement for 2014 stood at 40% while it stood at 36% in 2013. This slight improvement in power supply in 2014 from 2013 may have been a product of the privatisation of the Power sector in Nigeria. Given this achievement, the results still point out the need for more effective post privatisation strategy that would yield considerable improvement in power supply in 2015 as the majority of Nigerians in 2013 (64%) and 2014 (60%) saw no improvement in power supply to their households. In conclusion, 55% of adult Nigerians approved of the President’s job performance in December 2014; representing a 5-points decline in the President’s approval rating. This is mainly as a result of a shift in perception of residents within three (3) geo-political zones; North-East (23-point decline), North-Central (14-point decline) and North-West (10-point decline) in December 2014. Also, yearly trend analysis shows that the overall perception of Nigerians towards the president’s job performance in 2014 is higher by 9-points at 58%, when compared to 2013 (49%). More findings indicates that the President achieved an average(3) rating in terms of his performance in Job Creation, Economy, Education, Agriculture & Food Security, Transportation and Foreign Policy & Diplomacy; however he was rated poorly in Security (1) and Power (1). Finally, power supply to Nigerian households worsened in December as there was a substantial 8-pointsdecrease in the proportion of Nigerians who saw an improvement in power supply in December 2014, although a comparison of power supply in 2013 and 2014 revealed a slight improvement in power supply in 2014. Survey Methods The opinion poll was conducted in the week of December 15th 2014. It involved telephone interviews of a random nationwide sample. 1,000 randomly selected phone-owning Nigerians aged 18 years and above, representing the six geopolitical zones in the country were interviewed. With a sample of this size, we can say with 95% confidence that the results obtained are statistically precise within a range of plus or minus 3%. NOIPolls Limited, No1 for country specific polling services in West Africa, which works in technical partnership with the Gallup Organisation (USA), conducts periodic opinion polls and studies on various socio-economic and political issues in Nigeria. More information about the Company and its services is available at www.noi-polls.com Disclaimer This press release has been produced by NOIPolls Limited to provide information on all issues which form the subject matter of the document. Kindly note that while we are willing to share results from our polls with the general public, we only request that NOIPolls be acknowledged as author whenever and wherever our poll results are used, cited or published. NOIPolls hereby certifies that all the views expressed in this document accurately reflect the views of respondents surveyed for the poll, and background information is based on information from various sources that it believes are reliable; however, no representation is made that it is accurate or complete. Whilst reasonable care has been taken in preparing this document, no responsibility or liability is accepted for errors or fact or for any views expressed herein by NOIPolls for actions taken as a result of information provided in this report. Any ratings, forecasts, estimates, opinions or views herein constitute a judgment as at the date of this document. If the date of this document is not current, the views and content may not reflect NOIPolls’ current findings and/or thinking. Press Contact The Editor Email: editor@noi-polls.com
- Nigerians are Optimistic about a Peaceful and Secure Environment During the 2014 Festive Period
Abuja, Nigeria. December 23rd, 2014 – The Annual Special End of Year Poll results released by NOIPolls revealed that Nigerians (86%) reported that the environment in which they would be spending the holidays will be ’peaceful & secure’, even as they mostly remain confident (87%) in the ability of the state police command’s to respond to any security alert during this festive season. More findings revealed that the larger share of Nigerians (51%) will be ‘staying at home to relax’ during the end of year festive period while a considerable proportion ‘will be traveling’ (29%). However compared to the previous year (2013), the proportion of Nigerians that are staying home to relax or travelling has declined by 4-points and 3-points respectively. Furthermore, in 2014 there was a 6-points increase in the percentage of those that will continue to run their businesses during the festive period. Most Nigerians anticipate a general rise in prices during the festive period because activities that take place at the end of year typically require extra spending, however this perception has declined steadily from2012. Though poll results do not specify the reason for this observation, an indication from responses given suggest it could be as a result of the decline in inflation rates as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics. The inflation rate declined for the third straight month to 7.9% in November 2014, slightly down from 8.1% in the previous month due to lower food prices.[1] More findings from the 2014 poll revealed that Nigerians (52%) mostly anticipate a rise in the prices of food while 29% anticipate a rise in the cost of transportation and 10% anticipate a rise in the price of clothes. However, there was a 13-points decline in the proportion of Nigerians who anticipated a general rise in the prices of food items from 2013 to 2014 with a corresponding increase in the proportion of those that anticipate an increase in the cost of transportation. This increase may be influenced by the fear of disruption in petrol supply following the recent industrial action embarked on by the Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria (PENGASAN) and the Nigeria Union of Petroleum and Natural Gas (NUPENG) resulting in the non-availability and artificial scarcity of petroleum products.[2] In reaction to anticipated price increase in 2014, most Nigerians (78%) foresee a general increase in their spending although a small proportion (10%) affirmed that it will have no impact on their spending. Finally, in ushering in the 2014 end of year festive season, Nigerians mostly wish fellow citizens ‘Peace& prosperity’, ‘Happy Xmas & New Year in advance’ and ‘God’s blessings’These were some of the key findings of the ‘The Annual Special End of Year Poll’ by NOIPolls conducted in the week of December 15th 2014. Brief Background End of the year festive period for a typical Nigerian is a period for different celebrations, from parties to carnivals, social gatherings, family/school reunion, annual sporting, cultural fairs and art events. Mid-December through to early January is normally checked with a miscellany of entertainment such as the Calabar carnival, the Fanti Carnival and Eyo festival in Lagos. Benin City also comes alive with traditional dancing, mock battles, themed events and lively parades, when the Igue (Ewere) Festival takes place to mark the beginning of the seasonal yam harvest.[3] While the end of year Festive Season is a special time of celebration and connecting with friends and family, with the exchange of gifts, loud noise in the streets, dancing and songs, movement of people to their respective states of origin to celebrate with their loved ones among other activities;[4] the need to be security conscious and take precautions to protect lives and property is also imperative in the end of year festive season. Against this background NOIPolls conducted this special edition poll to explore the plans and expectations of Nigerians for the 2014 end of year festive season. This poll results release further trends current results with results of the first and second edition conducted in December 2012 and2013. To obtain the full report of this survey, please click here. Key Findings Respondents to the poll were asked eight specific questions; however, six of these questions are discussed in this release. To ascertain the plans of Nigerians for the end of year festivities, respondents were asked: What are your plans for the holiday? Findings revealed that majority of Nigerians will be ‘staying at home to relax’ (51%) while a considerable proportion ‘will be traveling’(29%) during the festive season. Other Nigerians who run businesses will take advantage from the general increase in the demand of goods and services by staying back to ‘continue with their business’(8%) while others would use the festive season to socialize by ‘attending family re-unions’ (6%) as well as ‘attend events’ (5%) amongst other activities. Analysis by age-group revealed that Nigerians would generally be staying at home to relax regardless of age-group; although this is mostly true for the senior citizens aged 61 years and above, which accounted for the highest percentage (69%) of Nigerians who ‘will be staying at home to relax’. On the other hand, Nigerians who would mostly be traveling during the festive period are aged 18 – 21 years(37%), this may be driven by the fact that majority of Nigerians in this age-group would most likely be students in various schools across the country which would generally be closed for the end of year holiday. When current findings are compared to responses from the previous poll conducted in 2013, findings revealed that Nigerians would be cutting down on staying at home to relax (4-points decline) or even traveling (3-points decline) in 2014 and would rather be socializing by attending family reunions or even continuing their business (6% increase) rather than closing it as usual for most businesses during the end of year festive period. With the aim of gauging the perceptions of Nigerians regarding possible rise in the prices of goods and services, respondents were asked: Do you anticipate a general rise in prices during this festive season? Overall Nigerians regardless of demographic differences anticipate a general rise in the prices of goods and services during the festive season as confirmed by 68% of respondents surveyed, while 22% stated otherwise. In addition,10% were not sure if there will be a general rise in prices or not. When current findings are compared with poll results from 2013, a significant 12-points decline is seen in the proportion of Nigerians who anticipated a general rise in prices and this can be attributed to the relative economic stability being experienced in the country and an eased inflation rate in the recent times. Respondents who anticipated a general rise in prices (68% of the total) were further asked: Which item do you anticipate a rise? A higher proportion (52%) of the respondents indicated that ‘food’ will be the item most affected by the general rise in price. This is followed by 29% that anticipate a rise in the cost of transportation as and 10% anticipate an increase in the price of clothes. Analysis by gender reveals that more female (14%) than male (7%) respondents mentioned clothes as one of the items they anticipate a rise in price indicating that more female shop for clothes than male respondents. Also, those aged between 18 – 21 years accounted for the highest proportion (21%) of respondents who indicated clothes as part of the item they anticipate a rise in price. This age-group is most likely to be concerned about wearing new clothes during this festive season than any other age-group. In comparing current results with the poll conducted in 2013, findings revealed a substantial 13-points drop in the proportion of Nigerians who anticipated a general rise in the food item. On the other hand, there was a corresponding 13-points increase in transportation. This increase may have been driven by fear of disruption in the supply of petrol across the country following the recent few days industrial actions by the Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria (PENGASAN) and the Nigeria Union of Petroleum and Natural Gas (NUPENG), resulting in the non-availability and artificial scarcity of petroleum products, which generally impacted on the cost of transportation over the short period it lasted.[1] Furthermore, respondents who anticipate a rise in price were also asked: How will rise in price affect your spending? A general rise in price will ‘increase spending’ as stated by 78% of Nigerian surveyed; a few (10%)affirmed that it will ‘have no impact’, while some others (12%) maintained that it will ‘reduce their spending’ this festive season. Further evaluation by gender reveals that more female (81%) than male respondents believed that it will increase their spending; this is so as the female gender is generally known to shop more than the male gender especially during the festive season. Trended results from 2012-2014 revealed that the proportion of Nigerians who anticipate a rise in price will increase their spending increased by 9-points in 2013 and by 10-points in 2014. Although the belief of inflation of goods and services during the festive period has declined over the years, nevertheless, the general perception of increased spending during the festive season has increased over the years. This occurrence could be a reflection of the devaluation of Naira over these years and even in recent time where the Naira has been devalued by N13 as announced by the Central Bank of Nigeria, [1] there by resulting to the continuous decline in the value for money received for goods and services. This therefore implies that to get the desired quality or quantity of goods and services Nigerians would need to spend more due to the devaluation of the Naira. With the aim of evaluating the security situation of the environment of Nigerians during the end of year festive period, respondents were asked: At present, how would you assess the security situation where you will be spending the holidays? Recent findings revealed that majority of Nigerians (86%) claim that the environment in which they would be spending the holidays is ’peaceful & secure’. Analysis across geo-political zones revealed that the North-East zone (19%) had the highest proportion of Nigerians who indicated that their environment is ‘peaceful but not very secure’. This also applies to North-West and North-Central zones (14% and 10% respectively). Meanwhile, the number of people who indicated that the environment where they will be spending the holiday is ‘tense and insecure’ was highest in North-West zone(8%). While it is a known fact that criminal activities increases during the end of year festive period, especially with the financial commitment that is associated with festivities, the perception of a ‘peaceful and secure’ holiday environment has increased over the years with a total increase of 32-points from 2012 to the present time. This increased confidence could be stimulated by an increased awareness of common crimes around various localities, adapted security tips by Nigerians in staying security conscious coupled with the proactive measures taken by security agencies in curbing crime especially in this period. Meanwhile, the number of people who indicated ‘peaceful but not very secure’ environment declined by 21- points in 2013 and further dropped by 7- points in 2014. In the same manner, respondents were asked: Do you believe your state police command is ready to respond to any security alert during this season? Findings revealed that majority of Nigerians (87%)believe the state police command is ready to respond to any security alert during this festive season. This cuts across all regions and age-groups. Although a considerable proportion of Nigerians especially in the South-East region do not have confidence in the state police command to respond to security alerts. Trended results from 2012 to 2014 depicts that the number of people who indicated the state police command is ready to respond to any security alert increased by 24 points in 2013 and has remained stable since then. Similarly, the number of people who do not believe state police command is ready to respond declined by 24 points in 2013 and has also remained stable till now. In conclusion, the end of year special poll revealed that majority of Nigerians will be staying at home to relax(51%) while a considerable proportion will be traveling (29%) during the festive season although there will be a reduction in these activities in 2014 as some Nigerians would rather be socialising by attending family reunions or even continuing their businesses (6% increase). More findings revealed that Nigerians anticipate a general rise in prices this festive season as confirmed by 68% of respondents surveyed while 22% stated otherwise. In line with this, a higher proportion (52%) of the respondents indicated that ‘food’ will be the item most affected by the general rise in price. This is followed by ‘transportation’ (29%)and ‘clothes’ (10%) amongst other items. As an impact of increased prices of goods and services in the end of year festive period, most Nigerians anticipate an increase in their spending as stated by 78% of Nigerian surveyed; a few (10%) affirmed that it will ‘have no impact’, some others (12%) maintained that it will ‘reduce their spending’ this festive season. Furthermore the poll revealed that majority of Nigerians (86%) claim that the environment in which they would be spending the holidays is ’peaceful & secure’. With respect to the preparedness of security forces for the festive period, majority of Nigerians (87%) believe the state police command is ready to respond to any security alert during this festive season. This reflects the confidence of Nigerians in the state police command in ensuring the protection of their environment from theft, conflict and violence. Finally, most Nigerians wish their fellow patriots ‘Peace& prosperity’. Survey Methods The opinion poll was conducted in the week 15th December 2014. It involved telephone interviews of a random nationwide sample. 1,000 randomly selected phone-owning Nigerians aged 18 years and above, representing the six geopolitical zones in the country, were interviewed. With a sample of this size, we can say with 95% confidence that the results obtained are statistically precise – within a range of plus or minus 3%. NOIPolls Limited, No 1 for Country Specific Polling Services in West Africa, which works in technical partnership with the Gallup Organisation (USA), to conduct periodic opinion polls and studies on various socio-economic and political issues in Nigeria. More information is available at www.noi-polls.com Disclaimer This press release has been produced by NOIPolls Limited to provide information on all issues which form the subject matter of the document. Kindly note that while we are willing to share results from our polls with the general public, we only request that NOIPolls be acknowledged as author whenever and wherever our poll results are used, cited or published. NOIPolls hereby certifies that all the views expressed in this document accurately reflect its views of respondents surveyed for the poll, and background information is based on information from various sources that it believes are reliable; however, no representation is made that it is accurate or complete. Whilst reasonable care has been taken in preparing this document, no responsibility or liability is accepted for errors or fact or for any views expressed herein by NOIPolls for actions taken as a result of information provided in this report. Any ratings, forecasts, estimates, opinions or views herein constitute a judgment as at the date of this document. If the date of this document is not current, the views and content may not reflect NOIPolls’ current findings and/or thinking. Press Contact The Editor Email: editor@noi-polls.com [1] http://www.vanguardngr.com/2014/12/naira-devaluationll-mixed-effects-economy-says-varsity-don/ [1] http://www.tradingeconomics.com/nigeria/inflation-cpi [2] http://sunnewsonline.com/new/?p=95747 [3] http://www.world-guides.com/africa/west-africa/nigeria/nigeria_events.html [4] http://www.total-facts-about-nigeria.com/nigeria-christmas.html [1] http://sunnewsonline.com/new/?p=95747
- 2 in 10 Nigerians Claim They Have Political Party Affiliation
Abuja, Nigeria. December 16th, 2014 – Latest Election poll results released by NOIPolls Limited have revealed that 2 in 10 (23%) adult Nigerians claim to have political party affiliation as they are registered members of various political parties with possession of party membership cards, whereas, 8% are registered members but do not have party membership cards. On the other hand, 7 in 10 (69%) adult Nigerians surveyed confirmed they are not registered to any political party. Furthermore, majority of Nigerians in this category are not keen in joining any political party. This may be due to general apathy towards politics, political parties and their activities or due to perceptions of a poor enabling environment for participation of individuals (especially the female gender) in political activities among other reasons. A view of political party membership revealed an equal proportion of membership for the All Progressive Congress (APC) (47%) and the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) (47%) with both accounting for the largest share of respondents who are registered members of political parties. The high membership of these parties among other registered parties may be driven by higher awareness of Nigerians on these parties (PDP 87%; APC 82%) than other registered parties as established by the poll; although a considerable proportion of Nigerians also showed awareness for the All Progress Grand Alliance (APGA) (25%). Further findings revealed that the traditional media (‘television’ 57%; ‘radio’ 50%) plays a great role in the awareness of Nigerians on political parties. Moreover a considerable proportion (32%) of Nigerians mostly aged 18-21 years tend to rely on ‘word of mouth’ as a source of awareness. These were some of the key findings of the ‘Countdown to 2015 Elections’ by NOIPolls Limited conducted in the week of December 8th 2014. Brief Background Participation of individuals in electoral processes goes beyond exercising their rights to vote. It encompasses the liberty to speak out, assemble and associate; the liberty to join a political party and participate in political activities, the ability to take part in the conduct of public affairs; and the opportunity to register as a candidate, to campaign, to be elected and to hold office at all levels of government. Political parties and candidates are key stakeholders in the election cycle.[1] While political aspirants rely on their parties for their nomination, electoral and financial support, awareness and participation of voters in the activities of political parties is also key in shaping the outcome of electoral processes.[2] With 26 registered political parties, Nigeria has a multi-party system with sometimes two or three stronger parties that are electorally successful. In the count down to the 2015 general elections in Nigeria which is in about 60 days, the outline of the 26 political parties registered and accredited by INEC for the 2015 general elections is a reflection of the political events of 2014. Events such as presidential, gubernatorial and senatorial primaries are being conducted across all the political parties in Nigeria to select party representatives ahead of the 2015 general elections. The electoral fortunes of registered parties will be revealed as the country moves closer to the election dates, further coupled with the intensity of voters’ education especially through campaigns and other political activities.[3] Against this background, NOIPolls conducted its Countdown to the 2015 Election with a focus on political parties in Nigeria. The poll measured the awareness of Nigerians on registered political parties as well as their membership to these parties. The Countdown to the 2015 Elections Polls is conducted bi-Monthly by NOIPolls and the current result release is 6th in the 2014 series. Key Findings Respondents to the poll were asked six specific questions. In order to gauge awareness of Nigerians on political parties in Nigeria, respondents were asked: Which political party(ies) are you aware of? Respondents were required to indicate as many parties they are aware of and findings revealed that a slight majority (87%) of respondents surveyed are more aware of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), this is closely followed by the All Progressive Congress (APC) with (82%). In addition, 25% of the respondents showed awareness for the All Progress Grand Alliance (APGA). Analysis by geo-political zone shows that the majority across all geopolitical zones showed awareness mainly for PDP and APC, although the South-East zone has the highest ratio of respondents who are aware of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) (91%) while the South-West zone has the largest proportion of respondents who are aware of the All Progressive Congress (APC) (89%). In addition, more than half of the respondents from the South-South zone also showed awareness for the All Progressive Grand Alliance (APGA) (54%). [1] http://www.un.org/womenwatch/osagi/wps/publication/Chapter3.htm [2] http://www.un.org/womenwatch/osagi/wps/publication/Chapter3.htm [3] http://integrityinternationalmagazine.com/2014/11/nigeria-set-for-2015-general-elections To explore the sources of awareness of Nigerians on political parties, respondents who showed awareness of political parties were further asked: How did you become aware of the political party? Respondents were required to indicate as many sources of awareness and the outcome establishes ‘television’ as the main source of awareness of political parties 57%, this is followed by, ‘radio’ as indicated by 50% of the respondents. Other sources of awareness stated by the respondents include ‘word of mouth’ (32%), ‘billboard’ (29%), and ‘participation in political campaign/rallies’ (23%) amongst others. An evaluation of the sources of awareness of Nigerians on political parties based on the geo-political zone revealed that the North-East zone accounted for the highest proportion of respondents who stated ‘television’(67%), ‘radio’ (69%), ‘word of mouth’ (61%) and ‘billboard’ (49%) as their main source of awareness on political parties while the South-East accounted for the highest proportion of respondents who indicated participation in political campaign/rallies with 35%. While traditional media plays a great role in the awareness of political parties for Nigerians aged “22 and above”, respondents aged between 18-21 years (53%) rely mostly on what they are told by others, although a considerable proportion (38%) of this age group also gained awareness of the political parties through television. To ascertain the proportion of Nigerians who are registered members of political parties, respondents were asked: Are you currently a registered member of any political party?Findings revealed the majority(69%) of the Nigerians surveyed are not registered to any political party in the country. This may be due to general apathy towards politics, political parties and their activities or due to perceptions of a poor enabling environment for participation of individuals (especially the female gender) in political activities amongst other reasons. In contrast, a considerable proportion (23%) of Nigerians are registered members of various political parties with possession of membership cards whereas, 8% are registered members but do not have membership cards. This group may not be categorised as members of political parties as the generally accepted and complete process of joining a political party in Nigeria requires the filling of a party registration form, the provision of supporting documents and the receipt of a membership card as confirmation. Further analysis reveals that more male (32%) than female (13%) respondents possess a political party membership card. Also membership of Nigerians in political parties somewhat increased with age as respondents aged 61 years and above accounted for the highest proportion (54%) of respondents who own a political party membership card with the least seen among respondents aged 18-21 years. Respondents who are registered members of political parties (31% of the total) were further asked: Which political party are you personally registered in? Finding revealed that the All Progressive Congress (APC) (47%) and the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) (47%) both have the highest proportion of respondents who are registered members regardless of the possession of a membership card. Findings from the geo-political zone standpoint revealed that the North-East zone has the greatest number of respondents (75%) who are personally registered with the All Progressive Congress (APC). This is followed by the North-West zone and the South-West zone with 57% and 48% respectively. The South-South zone accounted for the highest proportion of respondents (88%) who are personally registered with the People’s Democratic Party (PDP). This is also followed by the South-East zone and the North-Central zone with 59% and48% respectively. In addition, while political party membership of Nigerians aged 18-21 years tilts more towards the APC, a higher proportion of Nigerians registered to the PDP are aged 40-61+ years. Respondents who are not registered to any political party (69% of the total) were further asked: If you were to register, which political party would you register in?Responses revealed Nigerians who are not registered members of political parties may generally not be interested as 47% of the respondents reported they will not register with any of the political parties. 27% indicated that they would register with the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) while 24% indicated the All Progressive Congress (APC). Further analysis revealed that Nigerians aged 18-21 years are more keen on becoming members of a political party with a higher preference for PDP, while respondents aged 22 years and above would rather not join any political party, especially respondents aged 61+. The same applies across all geo-political zones where the higher proportion of residents would rather not register with any political party; However, a higher proportion of respondents who would register with PDP if need be are mostly from the North-Central (36%), South-South(32%), North-West (30%) and South-East (29%) zones, while respondents who would register with APC if they were to register, are mostly residents of the North-East (39%) and South-West (33%) zones. Finally, respondents were asked: Are you looking forward to voting in the 2015 general election?Analysis revealed that regardless of demographic differences, a higher proportion of Nigerians (87%) are looking forward to voting in the 2015 elections while 13% responded negatively. In conclusion, the recent election poll results have revealed that 69% of the respondents surveyed are not registered to any political party in the country, while 23% (2 in 10) of Nigerians are fully registered members of various political parties with possession of membership cards whereas, 8% are registered members but do not have membership cards. Nigerians who are not registered members of political parties may generally not be interested in registering as 47% of the respondents reported they will not register with any of the political parties, although, 27% indicated that they would register with the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), while 24%indicated the All Progressive Congress (APC) if the need arises. More findings revealed that the All Progressive Congress (APC) (47%) and the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) (47%) both accounted for the largest share of respondents who are registered members of a political party. An assessment of the awareness of Nigerians on registered political parties in Nigeria revealed that Nigerians are more aware of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) (87%) and the All Progressive Congress (APC) (82%) among other political parties in Nigeria. Furthermore, awareness of these political parties were mainly through ‘television’ (57%), ‘radio’ (50%), ‘word of mouth’ (32%), ‘billboard’ (29%), and ‘participation in political campaign/rallies’ (23%) amongst other sources. Finally, as the 2015 election draws near, 87% of adult Nigerians look forward to voting in the 2015 general elections. Survey Methods The opinion poll was conducted in the week 8th December 2014. It involved telephone interviews of a random nationwide sample. 1000 randomly selected phone-owning Nigerians aged 18 years and above, representing the six geopolitical zones in the country, were interviewed. With a sample of this size, we can say with 95% confidence that the results obtained are statistically precise – within a range of plus or minus 3%. NOIPolls Limited, No. 1 for country specific polling services in West Africa, which works in technical partnership with the Gallup Organisation (USA), to conduct periodic opinion polls and studies on various socio-economic and political issues in Nigeria. More information is available at www.noi-polls.com Disclaimer This press release has been produced by NOIPolls Limited to provide information on all issues which form the subject matter of the document. Kindly note that while we are willing to share results from our polls with the general public, we only request that NOIPolls be acknowledged as author whenever and wherever our poll results are used, cited or published. NOIPolls hereby certifies that all the views expressed in this document accurately reflect its views of respondents surveyed for the poll, and background information is based on information from various sources that it believes are reliable; however, no representation is made that it is accurate or complete. Whilst reasonable care has been taken in preparing this document, no responsibility or liability is accepted for errors or fact or for any views expressed herein by NOIPolls for actions taken as a result of information provided in this report. Any ratings, forecasts, estimates, opinions or views herein constitute a judgement as at the date of this document. If the date of this document is not current, the views and content may not reflect NOIPolls’ current findings and/or thinking. Press Contact The Editor Email: editor@noi-polls.com
- NOIPolls Portfolio of Indices – November 2014
Abuja, Nigeria. December 9th, 2014 –The Portfolio of Indices report released by NOIPolls Limited for the month of November 2014 revealed that the NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) declined by 2.8-points to 68.8-points in November 2014 from 71.6-points in October 2014. In line with this, a decline was experienced in all the indices that make-up the CCI, except for the Expectation of Prices of Goods and Services Index which saw a significant increase of 5.1-points. This might be driven by the anticipation of Nigerians for increases in the prices of goods and services during the festive period. Furthermore, the Present Situation Index (PSI) and the Expectation Index (EI), the two indicators that make up the CCI, dropped by 4.6-points and 1.5-points respectively. More findings revealed that the NOIPolls Personal Well-Being Index (PWBI) slightly increased by 0.07-point to stand at 45.07-points.Furthermore, the Personal Health Index had the highest increase with 2.5-points, while the Economic Index experienced the largest decline of 2.7-points. These are the key highlights from the November Portfolio of Indices Result Release. In February 2014, NOIPolls Limited introduced its portfolio of indices; the NOIPolls Personal Well-Being Index (PWBI), the NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) and the NOIPolls Eagle 30 Business Confidence Index (EBCI). The NOIPolls Personal Well-Being Index measures factors impacting on the lives of everyday Nigerians; thereby producing a complete view of the individual’s personal well-being. The NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index provides consumer assessments of the economic situation and their intentions and expectations for the future. The NOIPolls Eagle 30 Business Confidence Index measures business leaders’ perceptions and expectations about the Nigerian business environment using the top 30 companies in the country. Nigerian businesses, financial and government agencies largely depend on their perceptions and micro assessment of consumers’ expectation in making decisions. At best, they draw conclusion on the business environment based on information from their immediate surroundings while the minorities conduct surveys that are time and money consuming. However, the introduction of these indices provides indicators that will ensure stakeholders can detect and respond to changes in consumer behavior, the economy, and the business environment in Nigeria. This report presents the November 2014 results for the NOIPolls Personal Well-Being Index (PWBI) and NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index (CCI). The NOIPolls Personal Well-Being Index (PWBI) The NOIPolls Personal Well-Being Index for November 2014 slightly increased by 0.07-pointto stand at 45.07-points. Analysis of the individual indicators that make up the PWBI reveals differences in perception and satisfaction of Nigerians on several aspects of their lives. Nigerians are most satisfied in terms of Physical Health (77.4-points), Social Interaction(79.4-points), and Religion (88.7-points). Nigerians are somewhat neutral in conditions ofStandard of Living (52.2-points), Achievement in Life (54.9-points) and Personal Security (57.2-points), while Nigerians are not contented with their Personal Economic Situation (40.5-points). This index has consistently remained the lowest ranked indicator for the past eleven months. Monthly trend analysis indicates that only 3 of the indicators that makeup the PWBIexperienced a decline while, 4 indicators (Standard of living (0.9-point), Health (2.5-point), Achievement in life (0.6-point) and Social interaction (0.2-point)) experienced an increase in the month of November 2014. More findings from trend analysis show that the NOIPolls PWBI experienced a slight increase of 0.07-point in November 2014. Additionally, the PWBI average since January 2014 is 43.1-points and the current PWBI for the month of November 2014 is 2-points above the eleven months average. Please click here to see the full (PWBI) report The NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) The NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index for November 2014 declined to 68.8-points. This represents a 2.5-points drop from October 2014, which still shows a relatively high level satisfaction and also infers that Nigerians remain somewhat positive about their current situation and hopeful for a favourable future. The NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index comprises of 2 independent variables; the Present Situation Index (PSI) and Expectation Index (EI). The PSI declined by 4.6-points to stand at58.6-points, revealing that Nigerians are slightly less confident of their present economic situation. Also, the EI declined by 1.5-points to currently stand at 76.4-points, implying that consumers are remain optimistic about the future in spite of the slight decline. Trend analysis reveals that the overall CCI dropped by 2.8-point to 68.8-points in November 2014. The CCI average since January 2014 is 72.6-points, inferring that the CCI forNovember 2014 is 3.8-points below the eleven months average. Please click here to see the full (CCI) report. In conclusion, current poll results have revealed that the NOIPolls Personal Well-Being Index(PWBI) slightly increased by 0.07-point to stand at 45.07-points in November 2014, with 3 of the indicators that comprise the PWBI experiencing a decrease. Comparably, the NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index for November 2014 decreased by 2.5-point to stand at 68.8-points. More findings show that the Present Situation Index (PSI) and the Expectation Index(EI) decreased by 4.6-point and 1.5-point respectively. Survey Methods The Personal Well-Being Index and Consumer Confidence Index Polls were conducted in the month of November 2014. The PWBI involved telephone interviews of a random nationwide sample. 1,000 randomly selected phone-owning Nigerians aged 18 years and above, representing the six geopolitical zones in the country, were interviewed. With a sample of this size, we can say with 95% confidence that the results obtained are statistically precise – within a range of plus or minus 3%. In addition the CCI involved telephone interviews of a random nationwide sample. 4,000randomly selected phone-owning Nigerians aged 18 years and above, representing the six geopolitical zones in the country, were interviewed. With a sample of this size, we can say with 95% confidence that the results obtained are statistically precise – within a range of plus or minus 2%. NOIPolls Limited, No1 for country specific polling services in West Africa, which works in technical partnership with the Gallup Organisation (USA), to conduct periodic opinion polls and studies on various socio-economic and political issues in Nigeria. More information is available at www.noi-polls.com Disclaimer This press release has been produced by NOIPolls Limited to provide information on all issues which form the subject matter of the document. Kindly note that while we are willing to share results from our polls with the general public, we only request that NOIPolls be acknowledged as author whenever and wherever our poll results are used, cited or published. NOIPolls hereby certifies that all the views expressed in this document accurately reflect its views of respondents surveyed for the poll, and background information is based on information from various sources that it believes are reliable; however, no representation is made that it is accurate or complete. Whilst reasonable care has been taken in preparing this document, no responsibility or liability is accepted for errors or fact or for any views expressed herein by NOIPolls for actions taken as a result of information provided in this report. Any ratings, forecasts, estimates, opinions or views herein constitute a judgment as at the date of this document. If the date of this document is not current, the views and content may not reflect NOIPolls’ current findings and/or thinking. Press Contact The Editor Email: editor@noi-polls.com
- Sanctions and Insecurity Impacts Mobile Phone Subscription in Nigeria
Abuja, Nigeria. November 25th, 2014 – Latest Telecommunications Special Edition poll results released by NOIPolls Limited have revealed that a higher proportion of Nigerians use 2 phone lines either registered under one network provider or under two different ones. This trend has been consistent from 2012 to 2014; however, a 5-point reduction in the proportion of Nigerians in this category was seen from 2012 to 2013 and 3-points increase in 2014. An assessment of the mobile network used by Nigerians placed MTN as the highest used network in the past two years (2012-2013) and even in the present times; although subscription to this provider has consistently declined within this period. According to the MTN group, this decline has been mainly due to ‘regulatory restrictions’ imposed by the telecoms watchdog and growing spate of unrest by Boko Haram especially in the Northern part of Nigeria. Other Networks used by Nigerians in the order of higher subscribers include; Airtel (45%), Etisalat(33%), Glo (28%) and Visafone (1%). In line with this, the proportion of Airtel subscribers which seemed steady from 2012 to 2013 at (39%), picked up by 6-points in 2014 (45%), thus, making it the only network that has seen a considerable growth in the proportion of its users. This increase may have been driven by the discovery of the cheaper tariffs offered by this network compared with other networks. More findings on the usage of phone lines revealed a higher proportion of subscribers (76%)use MTN as their main line; this could have been as a result of a first mover advantage earned by this operator.[1] In addition, 15% of mobile network subscribers indicated Airtel as their main line, 5% indicated Glo, while 4% of subscribers use Etisalat as their main line. An assessment of the services provided by network providers revealed that a higher proportion(64%) of mobile phone users across all networks are getting value for money from their main network provider through the ‘quality of network services’ (27%), ‘bonus offers’ (25%) and‘cheaper tariff’ (23%) among others. Furthermore, MTN ranks highest for providing best services in Nigeria in 2014, followed by Airtel and Etisalat (68%, 17% and 11% respectively)and to further improve the quality of services of Network providers, subscribers have suggested the ‘reduction of tariff’ (30%) as a measure for improving the quality of telecommunication services while capitalizing on ‘wider network coverage’ (22%) and‘improved network services’ (22%). These were some of the key findings from theTelecommunications snap poll conducted in the week of November 17th 2014. Brief Background At the dawn of the 21st century, mobile network providers were granted licenses to operate in Nigeria, hence, the introduction of the Global System for Mobile Communication (GSM) which subsequently changed the frontage of telecommunications in Nigeria. In the present times, figures obtained from Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC), reveals that the teledensity of the country’s telecommunications industry increased to 96.08 per cent in September, from the 90.78 per cent in March 2014 just as active lines in the nation’s telecommunications industry increased to 134,507,329 in September 2014. Nigeria’s teledensity is currently calculated by NCC on a population of 140 million people.[2] Given this major breakthrough in the telecommunications industry, and with the competitive nature of the industry due to the advent of different players, ‘Quality of Service’ has been the major criteria for measuring the satisfaction of mobile network subscribers. In line with Section 89 of the Nigerian Communications Act 2003 which mandates the Commission to monitor all significant matters relating to the performance of all licensed telecoms service providers, the Commission placed a ban on the sales of new SIM cards in March 2014 and on promotions or bonus offers on some mobile networks operators recently, following the failure of these operators to meet the various Quality of Service (QoS) Key Performance Indicators (KPIs). Against this background, NOIPolls conducted it special edition poll on the telecommunications in Nigeria, to explore the current state of the sector from the perspective of consumers. The poll sought to measure the following: The mobile phone usage patterns in Nigeria, Quality of services provided by telecommunications providers and Recommendation to improve the quality of services. The result presented is the third in series of annual telecommunication polls conducted by NOIPolls; the first was conducted in 2012. To obtain the full report of this survey, please contact us at editor@noi-polls.com Key Findings Respondents to the poll were asked ten specific questions; only 6 of these questions are discussed in this release. With the aim of assessing the usage of mobile phone lines in Nigeria, respondents were asked: How many phone lines do you currently use? Findings from the current poll highlights that a higher proportion of Nigerians use 2 phone lines. These lines could either be registered under one network provider or under two different ones. The use of 2 or more lines could probably be driven by the need to overcome certain issues associated with mobile network which could range from accessibility to cost. In addition, 33% of Nigerians use one line, 17% use 3 lines, while 7% confirmed they use more than 3 lines. The use of 2 phone lines seems like the norm across all geo-political zones, except for the North-West zone where the higher proportion of the residents use one phone line. The North-East zone (33%: 22%+10%) and the South-West zone (31%: 23%+8%) accounted for the highest proportion of respondents who use 3 or more phone lines A 3-year trend analysis on the usage of phone lines in Nigeria revealed a consistent trend of 2 phone line usage by Nigerians from 2012 to 2014, however there was a 5-point reduction in the proportion of Nigerians in this category from 2012 to 2013 and 3-points increase in 2014. More findings revealed that more residents from the North-East zone use more than 3 phone lines in 2014 compared with the past 2 years with a significant increase of 9-points from 2013(1%) to 2014 (10%). A view of the trend on phone usage across age-groups revealed that Nigerians within the age-group of 18-21 years have increasingly adapted the use of 2 phone lines over the years; from 2012 where it was lowest to 2014 (41%) with the highest record. This increase in this category of Nigerians has stimulated a drop in the use of 1 line by this age-group. On the other hand, respondents aged 61+ have continuously reduced the use of 3 or more lines to settle for the use of 1 to 2 lines from 2012 to 2014. Subsequently, with the aim of exploring the mobile network providers used by Nigerians, respondents were asked: Which network provider(s) do you currently use? Findings revealed that MTN is the highest used line as confirmed by the vast majority of respondents(91%); this is followed by Airtel (45%) and Etisalat (33%). While 28% of Nigerians use Glo, only 1% of Nigerians use Visafone. This finding validates the data of the Nigerian Communication Commission (NCC) which revealed the movement of Airtel Nigeria Limited up to the second place in terms of market share on the number of mobile subscribers on its network with MTN maintaining the first position.[1] Trend analysis on the network providers used by Nigerians from 2012 to 2014 depicts a consistent decline in the proportion of Nigerians who subscribe to MTN from 2012 to 2014 with a total decline of 4-points within this period. According to the MTN group, this decline has been mainly due to ‘regulatory restrictions’ imposed by the telecoms watchdog and the growing spate of unrest by Boko Haram especially in the Northern part of Nigeria.[2] While a significant 8-point decline in the proportion of Glo subscribers from 2012 (40%) to 2013 (32%) was seen, a further 4-point decline was seen this category of subscribers in 2014 (28%). The same applies to Etisalat with a 10-point decline from 2012 (38%) to 2013 (28%) although a 4-point increase was recorded in 2014 (33%). On the other hand, the proportion of Airtel subscribers which seemed steady from 2012 to 2013 at 39%, picked up by 6-points in 2014 (45%), thus, making it the only network that has seen a considerable growth in the proportion of its users. Respondents were also asked: Are you getting value for money from your main network provider? Overall, a higher proportion (64%) of mobile phone users believe they are getting value for money from their main network provider. This cuts across all age-groups and geo-political zones, however, respondents aged 18-21 years (69%) feel more strongly about this position compared with all other age-groups. On the contrary, (36%) of the respondents claimed they are not getting value for money from their main network provider. Trend analysis on the reception of value for money from main network providers reveals that a higher proportion of subscribers across all networks consistently confirmed the reception of value for money from 2012 to 2014; although, an increase was experienced in this category of subscribers who use MTN (9-Points) and Airtel (2-points) as their main lines in 2014 from 2013. Also, there was a significant 22-point decrease in the reception of value for money by subscribers who use Etisalat as their main line in 2014 from 2013. In order to determine how subscribers get value for money from their network provider, respondents who indicated they get value for money were asked: How are you getting value from money from your network provider? Recent findings revealed that most subscribers get value for money from their network provider through the ‘quality of network services’(27%), ‘bonus offers’ (25%) and ‘cheaper tariff’ (23%) among others. Respondents from the South-South (34%) and the North-Central (32%) zones were more positive about ‘quality of network services’ while more subscribers from the North-East zone(36%) affirmed they get value for money through ‘bonus offers’ from their main network provider. Similarly, subscribers aged 18-21 (38%) and 61+ years (39%) are more positive about the ‘quality of network services’; Comparing the results from 2012-2014, the number of subscribers who indicated ‘quality network services’ dropped by 19 points in 2013 and since then remained stable till 2014. Meanwhile, those who indicated ‘Bonus offer’ declined by 8-points in 2013 and then increased by 14-points in 2014. Similarly, the number of subscribers who indicated ‘cheaper tariff’dropped by 14-points in 2013 and further declined by 2 points in 2014. Consequently, respondents were asked: In your opinion, which network operator provides the best services in Nigeria? Findings revealed that MTN ranks highest for best services in Nigeria, followed by Airtel and Etisalat (68%, 17% and 11% respectively). The majority of subscribers who indicated MTN were within the ages 18-21 years, followed by adults within the ages 61 years and above (79% and 70% respectively). Comparing the results from 2012 to 2014, MTN improved in providing best services to its subscribers by 14 points in 2013 but declined by 5-points in 2014. On the other hand, Airtel decreased by 6-points in providing best services to its subscribers in 2013, nonetheless, it increased by 7-points in 2014. Likewise, Etisalat declined by 6-points in 2013 but increased by 3-points in 2014, While Glo decreased by 2-points in 2013 and further decreased by 4-points in 2014. Lastly, in order to ascertain the measures needed for the improvement of telecommunication services in Nigeria, respondents were asked: In your own opinion, what measure should be taken to improve the quality of telecommunication services in Nigeria? Most subscribers suggest the ‘reduction of tariff’ (30%) as a measure to improve the quality of telecommunication services. This was followed by ‘wider network coverage’ (22%) and‘improved network services’ (22%) of network providers. Across geo-political zones, the North-East (47%) had the highest number of subscribers who indicated the ‘reduction of tariff’. Likewise, the South-East (29%) and North-Central (30%) zone had the highest proportion of subscribers who indicated ‘wider network coverage’ and‘Improved network services’ respectively. Conclusion In conclusion, the telecommunication poll revealed that Nigerians mostly use 2 phones lines, and trend analysis revealed that the usage of two lines has been consistent in Nigeria from 2012. An assessment of the mobile networks used by Nigerians revealed that Nigerians mostly use MTN, this has been consistent from 2012 to the present time, however there has been a consistent decline in the proportion of subscribers to this network within this period. This is followed by Airtel (45%); Etisalat (33%), Glo (28%) and Visafone (1%). In addition, the proportion of Airtel subscribers which seemed steady from 2012 to 2013 at (39%), picked up by 6-points in 2014 (45%), thus, making it the only network that has seen a considerable growth in the proportion of its users. More findings from the telecommunication poll revealed that most subscribers get value for money from their network provider through the ‘quality of network services’, ‘bonus offers’ and ‘cheaper tariff’ among others. Recent findings also revealed that MTN ranks highest for best services in Nigeria in 2014, followed by Airtel and Etisalat (68%, 17% and 11% respectively). In line with this, most subscribers suggest network providers reduce their tariffs, provide wider network coverage and improve their network services so as to improve the quality of telecommunication services in Nigeria. Survey Methods The opinion poll was conducted in the week of 17th November 2014. It involved telephone interviews of a random nationwide sample. 1000 randomly selected phone-owning Nigerians aged 18 years and above, representing the six geopolitical zones in the country, were interviewed. With a sample of this size, we can say with 95% confidence that the results obtained are statistically precise – within a range of plus or minus 3%. NOIPolls Limited, No1 for country specific polling services in West Africa, which works in technical partnership with the Gallup Organisation (USA), to conduct periodic opinion polls and studies on various socio-economic and political issues in Nigeria. More information is available at www.noi-polls.com Disclaimer This press release has been produced by NOIPolls Limited to provide information on all issues which form the subject matter of the document. Kindly note that while we are willing to share results from our polls with the general public, we only request that NOIPolls be acknowledged as author whenever and wherever our poll results are used, cited or published. NOIPolls hereby certifies that all the views expressed in this document accurately reflect its views of respondents surveyed for the poll, and background information is based on information from various sources that it believes are reliable; however, no representation is made that it is accurate or complete. Whilst reasonable care has been taken in preparing this document, no responsibility or liability is accepted for errors or fact or for any views expressed herein by NOIPolls for actions taken as a result of information provided in this report. Any ratings, forecasts, estimates, opinions or views herein constitute a judgment as at the date of this document. If the date of this document is not current, the views and content may not reflect NOIPolls’ current findings and/or thinking. Press Contact The Editor Email: editor@noi-polls.com [1] http://www.ncc.gov.ng/ [2] http://www.technologytimes.ng/ncc-boko-haram-caused-marginal-decline-mtn-nigeria
- About Half of Adult Nigerians Rent Accommodation; 3 in 10 Live in Personal Houses
Abuja, Nigeria. November 18th, 2014 – Latest snap poll results released by NOIPolls Limited have revealed that slightly more than half (51%) of adult Nigerians surveyed currently pay to live in a rented apartment, while a considerable proportion of adult Nigerians (31%) claimed “they live in their personal house”which may have been built, bought or even inherited. More findings revealed that the vast majority of Nigerians(85%) have shown keen interest in mortgaging as an option of owning personal houses. On the contrary, 15%would not consider owning a house through mortgage financing mainly due to “unstable income”. An assessment on the amount paid in rent revealed that irrespective of geo-political zone, the larger proportion of Nigerians(40%) mainly pay between ‘N20,001 – N100,000′ as rent yearly; though a considerable proportion of residents especially in the North-Central zone pay much higher. In addition, half (50%) of the respondents interviewed showed awareness of mortgage as an option of owning a house in the country. These were some of the key findings from the Housing Snap Poll conducted in the week of November 10th 2014. Brief Background Housing as a basic human need and as very vital aspect of any country’s economy can be examined in terms of quality and quantity. While the quality of housing is an important factor within Nigeria, the challenge of housing delivery is mostly seen in the shortage of housing stock i.e. housing quantity. The problems of the population explosion, rural-urban migration and lack of basic infrastructure required for a good standard of living have compounded housing problems in Nigeria over the years. Although the government at various times have instituted policies and programs to meet the housing demands of Nigerians, adequate housing delivery is still a far cry away as a result of certain factors such as; poor environmental quality, corruption, bureaucracy, inconsistency of policies, poor implementation of housing programs and high cost of building materials.[1][1] While the role of finance in housing provision cannot be overemphasized, it is worthy of note that access to such finance by a large proportion of the population who are low and middle income earners is still a mirage. High interest rates and lack of commitment on the part of commercial banks to finance housing projects or long term mortgage loans are militating against a stable housing finance system.[2][2] In light of this, efforts are continually being made to increase the housing stock and housing delivery to Nigerians by private developers, consortiums and government by way of low cost housing schemes. For instance the Federal Government recently launched the first 10,000 mortgages for the commencement of the Presidential Initiative on the delivery of affordable housing units to Nigerians as part of the Federal Government’s effort to fulfil its promise of providing affordable houses to Nigerians.[3][3] Against this background, NOIPolls conducted its Housing Snap Poll to assess the current housing status of Nigerians and ascertain awareness on mortgage as an option of owning a house in Nigeria. Key Findings Respondents to the poll were asked five specific questions. With the aim of ascertaining the current state of accommodation in Nigeria, respondents were required to provide their accommodation status. Findings revealed that slightly more than half (51%) of the respondents indicated ‘they currently pay to live in a rented apartment’ while 31% confirmed that ‘they live in their personal house’; respondents in this category may have built or purchased their houses or may have acquired it by inheritance. In addition, 11% claimed they ‘live with family/friend in a personal house’ while 4% reported they ‘live with family/friend in a rented house’ Analysis by geo-political zone revealed that a higher proportion of residents in the South-East (66%), South-South (62%), South-West (59%) and North-Central (51%) currently pay to live in rented apartments. On the other hand, almost an equal proportion of residents in the North-West and North-East zones either own their houses or pay to live in a rented apartment. To ascertain the amount paid as rent, respondents who currently live in a rented apartment (51% of the total) were further asked: Thinking about the cost of housing, what is the cost of renting your house yearly? The outcome establishes that the larger proportion(40%) of those who live in a rented house pay between ’N20,001 – N100,000’ as rent yearly. This is followed by 16% of the respondents who affirmed they pay between ‘100,001 – 180,000′ and 12% who admitted they pay between ‘N180,001 – N260,000′ as rent yearly. Only 9% of the respondents surveyed acknowledged that they pay ‘N340,000′ and above as rent yearly Evaluation from the geo-political zone standpoint shows that the standard range of amount paid on rent across all geopolitical zones is between ‘N20,001 – N100,000′ yearly, however, the North-East zone has the highest proportion (52%) of respondents who pay between’N20,001 – N100,000′ as rent yearly. In addition, the South-East zone accounted for the highest proportion (23%) of respondents who pay between ‘N100,001 – N180,000′; the South-South zone has the highest proportion (21%) of residents who pay between ‘N180,001 – N260,000′while the North-Central zone accounted for the highest proportion (19%) of respondents who pay ‘N340,000′ Naira and above as rent yearly. With the aim of measuring the awareness of Nigerians on housing mortgage[1][4], respondents were asked: Are you aware of mortgage as an option of owning a house in Nigeria? The outcome reveals that half (50%) of adult Nigerians surveyed are aware of mortgage as an option of owning a house in the country this cuts across gender and geo-political zone. Further analysis by age revealed that respondents aged 60 years and above showed more awareness on mortgage as option of owning a house, whereas respondents aged 18 – 21 years were least aware of mortgage in Nigeria. Respondents who were not aware of mortgage were introduced to the concept and all respondents were further asked: Would you consider owning a house through mortgage financing? The findings indicate that more than 8 in 10 Nigerians would like to own a house through mortgage financing and this cuts across gender and geo-political zones. On the contrary, 15% of those interviewed would not consider owning a house through mortgage financing. It is also worthy to note that respondents aged between 18 – 21 years are least interested in owning a house through mortgage (57%). Finally, respondents who would not consider owning a house through mortgage (15% of the total) were further asked: Why would you not consider using mortgage financing for owning a house? Responses revealed that a higher proportion of respondents (28%) who would not consider owning a house through mortgage stated ‘they do not have a stable income’, (18%) affirmed that ‘they are not interested’, (17%) would not consider mortgage due to “High interest rate on mortgage loan” while (12%) believe owning a house through mortgage financing ‘is expensive’ More female (31%) than male (20%) respondents who would not consider mortgage as an option for owning a house ‘do not have a stable income’. Further analysis by geo-political zone shows that the highest proportion of respondents who would not consider mortgage financing due to unstable income were from the South-West (42%) and South-East (41%) zones, while a higher proportion of residents in the North-East zone who would not consider mortgage as an option of owning a house are either ‘not interested’ (58%) or believe mortgage loans attracts‘high interest rate’ (42%). In conclusion, the recent poll results have revealed that 51% of adult Nigerians surveyed claimed that ‘they currently pay to live in a rented apartment’ while 31% reported ‘they live in their personal house’. More findings revealed that the majority (40%) of Nigerians who live in a rented house pay between ‘₦20,001 – ₦100,000’ as rent yearly. Further findings show that half (50%) of the respondents interviewed are aware of mortgage as an option of owning a house in the country while, 50% stated that they are not aware of such option. In addition, 85%of Nigerians would like to own a house through mortgage financing and this cuts across gender and geo-political zones. On the contrary, 15% were not willing to consider owning a house through mortgage financing as a higher proportion of respondents in this category claimed ‘they do not have a stable income’. Survey Methods The opinion poll was conducted in the week of 10th November 2014. It involved telephone interviews of a random nationwide sample. 1,000 randomly selected phone-owning Nigerians aged 18 years and above, representing the six geopolitical zones in the country, were interviewed. With a sample of this size, we can say with 95% confidence that the results obtained are statistically precise – within a range of plus or minus 3%. NOIPolls Limited, No1 for country specific polling services in West Africa, which works in technical partnership with the Gallup Organisation (USA), to conduct periodic opinion polls and studies on various socio-economic and political issues in Nigeria. More information is available at www.noi-polls.com Disclaimer This press release has been produced by NOIPolls Limited to provide information on all issues which form the subject matter of the document. Kindly note that while we are willing to share results from our polls with the general public, we only request that NOIPolls be acknowledged as author whenever and wherever our poll results are used, cited or published. NOIPolls hereby certifies that all the views expressed in this document accurately reflect its views of respondents surveyed for the poll, and background information is based on information from various sources that it believes are reliable; however, no representation is made that it is accurate or complete. Whilst reasonable care has been taken in preparing this document, no responsibility or liability is accepted for errors or fact or for any views expressed herein by NOIPolls for actions taken as a result of information provided in this report. Any ratings, forecasts, estimates, opinions or views herein constitute a judgment as at the date of this document. If the date of this document is not current, the views and content may not reflect NOIPolls’ current findings and/or thinking. Press Contact The Editor Email: editor@noi-polls.com
- NOIPolls Portfolio of Indices – October 2014
Abuja, Nigeria. November 11th, 2014 –The Portfolio of Indices report released by NOIPolls Limited for the month of October 2014 reveals that the NOIPolls Personal Well-Being Index(PWBI) slightly decreased by 0.6-point to stand at 45-points. In addition, there was a decline in all the indicators that comprise the PWBI except for the Social Interaction and Personal Religion Indices which both experienced an increase of 1-point and 0.2-point respectively. Further findings reveal that the Present Situation Index (PSI) and the Expectation Index (EI), the two indicators that make up the NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index (CCI), increased by0.4-point and 0.2-point respectively, thus bringing the CCI to 71.6-points in October 2014. These are the key highlights from the October Portfolio of Indices Result Release. In February 2014, NOIPolls Limited introduced its portfolio of indices; the NOIPolls Personal Well-Being Index (PWBI), the NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) and the NOIPolls Eagle 30 Business Confidence Index (EBCI). The NOIPolls Personal Well-Being Index measures factors impacting on the lives of everyday Nigerians; thereby producing a complete view of the individual’s personal well-being. The NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index provides consumer assessments of the economic situation and their intentions and expectations for the future. The NOIPolls Eagle 30 Business Confidence Index measures business leaders’ perceptions and expectations about the Nigerian business environment using the top 30 companies in the country. Nigerian businesses, financial and government agencies largely depend on their perceptions and micro assessment of consumers’ expectation in making decisions. At best, they draw conclusions on the business environment based on information from their immediate surroundings while the minorities conduct surveys that are time and money consuming. However, the introduction of these indices provide indicators that will ensure stakeholders can detect and respond to changes in consumer behavior, the economy, and the business environment in Nigeria. This report presents the October 2014 results for the NOIPolls Personal Well-Being Index (PWBI) and NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index (CCI). The NOIPolls Personal Well-Being Index (PWBI The NOIPolls Personal Well-Being Index for October 2014 declined by 0.6-point to stand at45-points, following the attainment of its peak in September when it stood at 45.6-points. Analysis of the individual indicators that make up the PWBI reveals differences in perception and satisfaction of Nigerians on several areas of their lives. Nigerians are most satisfied with their Physical Health (74.9-points), Social Interaction (79.2-points), andReligion (89.4-points). Nigerians are somewhat neutral about their Standard of Living(51.3-points), Achievement in Life (54.3-points) and Personal Security (59.2-points), while Nigerians are not satisfied with their Personal Economic Situation (43.2-points). This index has continued to be the lowest ranked indicator since January 2014. Monthly trend analysis shows that almost all of the indicators that makeup the PWBIexperienced a decline with the highest seen in the Achievement in Life index with 2.5-points. This may have been influenced by the realisation of the year coming to an end where individuals are likely to appraise their achievement of goals set at the beginning of the year. On the other hand, the Social Interaction index and Religion index were the only indicators that experienced an increase in the month of October 2014 with 1-point and 0.2-point respectively. Further findings from trend analysis show that the NOIPolls PWBI assumed a downward direction in October following an upward trend in the three months of the third quarter (Q3) of 2014, where it peaked in September. Although the NOIPolls PWBI experienced a slight decrease of 0.6-point in October 2014, however, it still remains the second highest for the year. Additionally, the PWBI average from January 2014 till date is 42.9-points; PWBI for the month of October 2014 is 2.1-points above this average. To read more on NOIPolls Personal Well-Being Index for October, click here The NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) The NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index for October 2014 increased by 0.3-point to 71.6-points. This represents a continuous increase since August 2014; suggesting that Nigerians have maintained a positive disposition about their current situation and are also hopeful for a promising future. The NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index comprises of 2 independent variables; the Present Situation Index (PSI) and Expectation Index (EI). The PSI slightly increased by 0.4-point to stand at 63.2-points, revealing that Nigerians are quite confident of the present economic situation. The EI also increased by 0.2-point to currently stand at 77.9-points, implying that consumers are very optimistic about the future. Trend analysis reveals that the overall CCI has maintained an upward trend from August 2014 with a total increase of by 0.9-point. The CCI average since January 2014 is 72.9-points,inferring that the CCI for October 2014 is 1.3-points below the average. To read more on NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index for October, click here In conclusion, current poll results have revealed that the NOIPolls Personal Well-Being Index(PWBI) slightly decreased by 0.6-point to stand at 45-points in October 2014, with all the indicators that comprise the PWBI experiencing a decrease, except the Social Interaction Index and the Religion Index. Comparably, the NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index forOctober 2014 increased by 0.3-point to stand at 71.6-points. More findings show that the Present Situation Index (PSI) and the Expectation Index (EI) both increased by 0.4-point and0.2-point respectively. Survey Methods The Personal Well-Being Index and Consumer Confidence Index Polls were conducted in the month of October 2014. The PWBI involved telephone interviews of a random nationwide sample. 1,000 randomly selected phone-owning Nigerians aged 18 years and above, representing the six geopolitical zones in the country, were interviewed. With a sample of this size, we can say with 95% confidence that the results obtained are statistically precise – within a range of plus or minus 3%. In addition the CCI involved telephone interviews of a random nationwide sample. 4,000randomly selected phone-owning Nigerians aged 18 years and above, representing the six geopolitical zones in the country, were interviewed. With a sample of this size, we can say with 95% confidence that the results obtained are statistically precise – within a range of plus or minus 2%. NOIPolls Limited, No1 for country specific polling services in West Africa, which works in technical partnership with the Gallup Organisation (USA), to conduct periodic opinion polls and studies on various socio-economic and political issues in Nigeria. More information is available at www.noi-polls.com Disclaimer This press release has been produced by NOIPolls Limited to provide information on all issues which form the subject matter of the document. Kindly note that while we are willing to share results from our polls with the general public, we only request that NOIPolls be acknowledged as author whenever and wherever our poll results are used, cited or published. NOIPolls hereby certifies that all the views expressed in this document accurately reflect its views of respondents surveyed for the poll, and background information is based on information from various sources that it believes are reliable; however, no representation is made that it is accurate or complete. Whilst reasonable care has been taken in preparing this document, no responsibility or liability is accepted for errors or fact or for any views expressed herein by NOIPolls for actions taken as a result of information provided in this report. Any ratings, forecasts, estimates, opinions or views herein constitute a judgment as at the date of this document. If the date of this document is not current, the views and content may not reflect NOIPolls’ current findings and/or thinking. Press Contact The Editor Email: editor@noi-polls.com
- President’s Approval Rating Dips By 14-Points To 60% in October
Abuja, Nigeria. November 4th, 2014 – Latest governance poll results released by NOIPolls for the month of October 2014 revealed that a total of 60% of Adult Nigerians approved of the President’s performance over the past one month; indicating a substantial 14-points decline in the President’s approval rating from September 2014 where it hit its peak at 74%. In line with this, a general decline was experienced in the approval rating of the President across all geo-political zones with the greatest decline seen in the North- East (28-points) and the North-West (26-points) zones. This substantial decline in the rating of the President especially in the Northern regions may have been driven by the dashed hopes of Nigerians from failed achievements in pertinent security actions which would have been major breakthroughs in the area of Security; for instance the failure of the ‘cease fire’ deal between the Government and‘Boko Haram’ insurgents, as well as failure in the release of the ‘Chibok school girls’ after reassurance of their possible release in October.[1] Still in the bid to assess the President’s performance, findings revealed that Nigerians perceived the performance of the President in key elements of his transformation agenda including, ‘Job Creation’, ‘Power’ ‘Economy’, ‘Health’, ‘Education’, ‘Agriculture & Food Security’, ‘Transportation’ and ‘Foreign Policy & Diplomacy’ as average (3). However, his performance on ‘Security’ was rated as very poor, implying that Nigerians are not satisfied with his achievement on this key area of his transformation agenda. In addition, an assessment of the current state of power revealed a worsened state in power supply to Nigerian households as reported by (47%) of the respondents with a higher proportion from the North-Central zone(58%). This poor state of power supply experienced by households across the nation was generally due to the drop in generated power by 1,000 megawatts in October 2014. Finally, this setback in power supply also contributed to the downward direction of the President’s approval rating in October. These were some of the key findings from the Governance Snap Poll conducted in week of October 27th 2014. These results represent the tenth in the 2014 monthly series of governance polls conducted by NOIPolls to gauge the opinions and perceptions of Nigerians regarding the approval rating of the President, the performance of the President on key elements of his transformation agenda, and the state of power supply in the country. Respondents to the poll were asked three specific questions. The first sought to assess the views of Nigerians on the performance of President Goodluck Jonathan over the past 1 month. Respondents were asked: Do you approve or disapprove of the job performance of President Jonathan in the past 1 month? Responses revealed that a total of 60% of the respondents approved of the President’s performance, 27% disapproved of his performance, while 13% of the respondents remained neutral as they neither approved nor disapproved. An analysis of the President’s performance by geo-political zone reveals that the South-Eastzone (88%: 28%+60%) has the highest proportion of respondents who approved of the President’s job performance and this rating generally impacted on the overall rating of the President. The North-West zone accounted for the largest proportion of respondents who disapproved of the president’s job performance (47%: 36%+11%). A three-month trend analysis (August to October 2014) of the President’s job approval rating by geo-political zone highlights a general decline in the approval rating of the president across all geo-political zones. In line with this, the greatest decline in the President’s approval rating was seen in the North-East (28-points) and the North-West (26-points) zones. This substantial decline in the President’s approval rating especially in the Northern regions may have been as a result of the diminished hopes of Nigerians due to failed achievements in pertinent security actions; such as the ‘cease fire’ deal between the Government and ‘Boko Haram’ insurgents, as well as failure in the release of the ‘Chibok school girls’ after reassurance of their possible release in October.[2] This decline may also have been as a result of the obvious worsened state of power experienced all over the nation over the past one month as shown in a subsequent chart. Further monthly trend assessment of the President’s approval rating reveals a substantial 14-points decline in the President’s approval rating in October from September 2014 where the approval rating of the President was recorded at 74%. Furthermore, the current rating (60%) of the President was almost similar with ratings in the previous months; such as in August (61%)and July (62%) before the high increase recorded in September 2014 (74%) due to some major achievements especially in health, as seen in the NOIPolls Governance Result Release for September 2014.[3] To see approval ratings over 22 months, please click here With the aim of measuring the performance of the President on pertinent elements of his transformation agenda, respondents were asked: On a scale of 1 to 5, where 1 is very poor and 5 is excellent, how would you rate the performance of the President Jonathan in the following areas? (1) Job Creation (2) Power (3) Economy (4) Health (5) Education (6) Agriculture & Food Security (7) Transportation (8) Foreign Policy & Diplomacy and (9) Security. Nigerians perceived the performance of the President in ‘Job creation’, ‘Power’, ‘Economy’, ‘Health’, ‘Education’, ‘Agriculture & Food Security’, ‘Transportation’ and ‘Foreign Policy & Diplomacy’ as average (3). However, his performance on ‘Security’ was rated as very poor thus implying that Nigerians are not satisfied with his achievement on this key area of his transformation agenda. Monthly trend analysis reveals that the President’s performance rating on ‘Job Creation’ ‘Power’ ‘Economy’, ‘Health’, ‘Education’, ‘Transportation’ and ‘Foreign Policy & Diplomacy’maintained an average rating from the previous month. However his performance rating in Agriculture & Food Security’, dropped from a good rating (4) in the previous month to an average rating in October, while his rating on security continued to maintain a very poor rating as in the last nine months. Finally, with the aim of assessing the state of power supply to Nigerian households over the past month, respondents were asked: How would you describe power supply in your area in the last 1 month? Findings revealed a worsened state in power supply to Nigerian households as almost half (47%: 26%+21%) of the respondents reported a poor state of power supply to their household over the past month. A total of 36% (26%+10%) of Nigerians saw an improvement in power supply, while 17% of the respondents saw no difference in the state of power supply over the past month. Analysis by geo-political zones revealed that a higher proportion of Nigerian households across all geo-political zones experienced a poor state in power supply over the past one month except for the South-West zone where an equal proportion of households experienced a poor state (39%) and improvement (39%) in power supply over the past one month. TheNorth-Central zone accounted for the highest proportion (58%) of respondents who experienced a poor state in power supply, while the North-West zone (42%) recorded the highest proportion of the respondents who saw improvements over the past month. Further trend analysis revealed an obvious worsened state of power supply to Nigerian households in October from the previous month. This is evidenced by a significant 16-pointdecline in the proportion of Nigerians who experienced an improvement in power supply to their households in October (36%) from September 2014 where improvement was recorded at52%. This poor state of power supply experienced by households across the nation was generally due to the drop in generated power by 1,000 megawatts. This is evidenced by figures released by the Federal Ministry of Power where the country’s peak generation in October 2014 dropped from 3,513.5MW to 2,500MW, against a peak demand of 12,800MW.[4] In conclusion, findings from this poll revealed that 60% of adult Nigerians approved of the President’s performance over the past month. These findings depict a 14-point decline in his approval rating in October from September 2014 where it was recorded at 74%. Based on the rating of key elements of his transformation agenda, the President had an average ranking in his performance in ‘Job Creation’, ‘Power’, ‘Economy’, ‘Health’, ‘Education’, ‘Agriculture & Food Security’, ‘Transportation’ and ‘Foreign Policy & Diplomacy’ as average (3). However, his performance on ‘Security’ was rated as very poor in October 2014. An assessment of the current state of power revealed that a worsened state of power was generally experienced across the nation in October; this is evidenced by a 16-point decline in the proportion of respondents who experienced an improvement in power supply in October (36%) from September 2014 (52%). Finally, the current security challenges, as well as the general poor state of power in October negatively impacted the approval rating of the President, with a resulting decline by 14-points. Survey Methods The opinion poll was conducted in the week of October 27th 2014. It involved telephone interviews of a random nationwide sample. 1,000 randomly selected phone-owning Nigerians aged 18 years and above, representing the six geopolitical zones in the country, were interviewed. With a sample of this size, we can say with 95% confidence that the results obtained are statistically precise – within a range of plus or minus 3%. NOIPolls Limited, No1 for country specific polling services in West Africa, which works in technical partnership with the Gallup Organisation (USA), to conduct periodic opinion polls and studies on various socio-economic and political issues in Nigeria. More information is available at www.noi-polls.com Disclaimer This press release has been produced by NOIPolls Limited to provide information on all issues which form the subject matter of the document. Kindly note that while we are willing to share results from our polls with the general public, we only request that NOIPolls be acknowledged as author whenever and wherever our poll results are used, cited or published. NOIPolls hereby certifies that all the views expressed in this document accurately reflect its views of respondents surveyed for the poll, and background information is based on information from various sources that it believes are reliable; however, no representation is made that it is accurate or complete. Whilst reasonable care has been taken in preparing this document, no responsibility or liability is accepted for errors or fact or for any views expressed herein by NOIPolls for actions taken as a result of information provided in this report. Any ratings, forecasts, estimates, opinions or views herein constitute a judgment as at the date of this document. If the date of this document is not current, the views and content may not reflect NOIPolls’ current findings and/or thinking. Press Contact The Editor Email: editor@noi-polls.com
- NOIPolls Portfolio of Indices – September 2014
Abuja, Nigeria. October 14th, 2014 –The Portfolio of Indices report revealed that the NOIPolls Personal Well-Being Index (PWBI) increased by 2.3-points to stand at 45.6-points in September 2014, a peak position so far in 2014. In addition, there was an increase in all indicators that comprise the PWBI with the highest increase observed in the Personal Security Index with 7.2-points. Furthermore, the NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) increased slightly by 0.6-point to stand at 71.3-points in September 2014. Further analysis of the two indicators that make up the CCI revealed that the Present Situation Index (PSI) increased by2.3-points while the Expectation Index (EI) declined by 0.6-point. These are the key highlights from the September Portfolio of Indices Press Release. NOIPolls Limited introduced its portfolio of indices; the NOIPolls Personal Well-Being Index (PWBI), the NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) and the NOIPolls Eagle 30 Business Confidence Index (EBCI). The NOIPolls Personal Well-Being Index measures factors impacting on the lives of everyday Nigerians; thereby producing a complete view of the individual’s personal well-being. The NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index provides consumer assessments of the economic situation and their intentions and expectations for the future. The NOIPolls Eagle 30 Business Confidence Index measures business leaders’ perceptions and expectations about the Nigerian business environment using the top 30 companies in the country. Nigerian businesses, financial and government agencies largely depend on their perceptions and micro assessment of consumers’ expectation in making decisions. At best, they draw conclusion on the business environment based on information from their immediate surroundings while the minority conducts surveys that are time and money consuming. However, the introduction of these indices provides indicators that will ensure stakeholders can detect and respond to changes in consumer behavior, the economy, and the business environment in Nigeria. This report presents the September 2014 results for the NOIPolls Personal Well-Being Index (PWBI) and NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index (CCI). The NOIPolls Personal Well-Being Index (PWBI) The NOIPolls Personal Well-Being Index for September 2014 increased by 2.3-points to stand at 45.6 points. This represents the highest point attained so far in 2014 and also the highest increase over a month interval. Analysis of the individual indicators shows increases in the perception of Nigerians across all measured indicators that comprise the PWBI. Nigerians are most satisfied in terms of Religion(89.2-points); Social Interaction(78.2-points), Physical Health (75.4-points) and Personal Security (60.2-points) Additionally, Nigerians are somewhat neutral with respect to their Achievement in Life(56.8-points) and Standard of Living (53.1-points). On the other hand, Nigerians remain discontented with their Personal Economic Situation (43.4-points); this has remained the lowest ranked indicator since January 2014 despite a 3-points increase this month. Monthly trend analysis shows that all the indicators that comprise the PWBI experienced an increase; the highest and lowest increases were observed in the Personal Security Index and Religion Index with 7.2-points and1.4-points respectively. Furthermore, the Personal Security Index is at the highest point so far in 2014 suggesting that Nigerians are presently more satisfied with their personal security. Further findings from trend analysis shows that the PWBI has been on the increase since July 2014 and experienced a substantial increase of 2.3-points in September 2014 which is the highest point (45.6-points)over nine months. Additionally, the average PWBI from January 2014 till date is 42.7-points and the current September reading is 2.9-points above this average. The NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index The NOIPolls Consumer Confidence IndexThe NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index for September 2014increased slightly by 0.6-point to stand at 71.3-points. In spite of this slight increase, the CCI remains high suggesting Nigerians remain positive about their current situation and are hopeful about the future. The NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index comprises of 2 independent variables; the Present Situation Index(PSI) and Expectation Index (EI). The Present Situation Index experienced a 2.3-points increase and is currently at 62.8-points revealing that Nigerians are relatively confident about their present economic situation. In addition, the Expectation Index declined slightly by 0.6-point and currently stands at 77.7-points implying that consumers are highly optimistic about the future. Trend analysis shows that the overall CCI increased slightly by 0.6-point to 71.3-points in September 2014.The CCI average since January 2014 is 73.1-points, inferring that the CCI for September 2014 is 1.8-pointsbelow the average till date. Conclusion In conclusion, current poll results have revealed that the NOIPolls Personal Well-Being Index (PWBI) increased by 2.3-points to stand at 45.6 in September 2014; the highest point so far in 2014 and the highest month-on-month increase. In addition, in September all the indicators that comprise the PWBI experienced an increase indicating that Nigerians are more satisfied with all seven indicators than in August 2014. In addition, the NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index for September 2014 increased slightly by 0.6-point to stand at 71.3-points; the Present Situation Index (PSI) increased by 2.3-points, while the Expectation Index (EI) declined by0.6-point. Survey Methods The Personal Well-Being Index and Consumer Confidence Index Polls were conducted in the month ofSeptember 2014. The PWBI involved telephone interviews of a random nationwide sample. 1,000 randomly selected phone-owning Nigerians aged 18 years and above, representing the six geopolitical zones in the country were interviewed. With a sample of this size, we can say with 95% confidence that the results obtained are statistically precise within a range of plus or minus 3%. In addition the CCI involved telephone interviews of a random nationwide sample. 4,000 randomly selected phone-owning Nigerians aged 18 years and above, representing the six geopolitical zones in the country, were interviewed. With a sample of this size, we can say with 95% confidence that the results obtained are statistically precise – within a range of plus or minus 2%. NOIPolls Limited, No1 for country specific polling services in West Africa, which works in technical partnership with the Gallup Organisation (USA), to conduct periodic opinion polls and studies on various socio-economic and political issues in Nigeria. More information is available at www.noi-polls.com Disclaimer This press release has been produced by NOIPolls Limited to provide information on all issues which form the subject matter of the document. Kindly note that while we are willing to share results from our polls with the general public, we only request that NOIPolls be acknowledged as author whenever and wherever our poll results are used, cited or published. NOIPolls hereby certifies that all the views expressed in this document accurately reflect its views of respondents surveyed for the poll, and background information is based on information from various sources that it believes are reliable; however, no representation is made that it is accurate or complete. Whilst reasonable care has been taken in preparing this document, no responsibility or liability is accepted for errors or fact or for any views expressed herein by NOIPolls for actions taken as a result of information provided in this report. Any ratings, forecasts, estimates, opinions or views herein constitute a judgment as at the date of this document. If the date of this document is not current, the views and content may not reflect NOIPolls’ current findings and/or thinking. Press Contact The Editor Email: editor@noi-polls.com











