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Mauris turpis nunc, blandit et, volutpat molestie, porta ut, ligula. Nullam cursus lacinia erat. Aenean imperdiet. Nullam quis ante. Ut id nisl quis enim dignissim sagittis. Duis leo. Praesent egestas neque eu enim. In hac habitasse platea dictumst. Vestibulum purus quam, scelerisque ut, mollis sed, nonummy id, metus. Donec interdum, metus et hendrerit aliquet, dolor diam sagittis ligula, eget egestas libero turpis vel mi. Nam ipsum risus, rutrum vitae, vestibulum eu, molestie vel, lacus. Nunc nulla. Suspendisse feugiat. Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetuer adipiscing elit. Donec venenatis vulputate lorem. Sed hendrerit. Integer tincidunt. Quisque libero metus, condimentum nec, tempor a, commodo mollis, magna. Sed a libero. Curabitur turpis. Praesent egestas tristique nibh. Morbi mollis tellus ac sapien. Aliquam lobortis. Pellentesque posuere. Suspendisse eu ligula. Praesent ac massa at ligula laoreet iaculis. Donec vitae orci sed dolor rutrum auctor. Aenean massa. Fusce a quam. Curabitur vestibulum aliquam leo. Maecenas vestibulum mollis diam. Donec sodales sagittis magna. Ut tincidunt tincidunt erat. Class aptent taciti sociosqu ad litora torquent per conubia nostra, per inceptos hymenaeos. In ac felis quis tortor malesuada pretium. Fusce a quam. Mauris sollicitudin fermentum libero. Sed cursus turpis vitae tortor. Pellentesque egestas, neque sit amet convallis pulvinar, justo nulla eleifend augue, ac auctor orci leo non est. Aenean leo ligula, porttitor eu, consequat vitae, eleifend ac, enim. Sed hendrerit. Suspendisse non nisl sit amet velit hendrerit rutrum. Vivamus consectetuer hendrerit lacus. Praesent porttitor, nulla vitae posuere iaculis, arcu nisl dignissim dolor, a pretium mi sem ut ipsum. Suspendisse faucibus, nunc et pellentesque egestas, lacus ante convallis tellus, vitae iaculis lacus elit id tortor. Sed fringilla mauris sit amet nibh. Phasellus ullamcorper ipsum rutrum nunc. Donec vitae sapien ut libero venenatis faucibus. Sed augue ipsum, egestas nec, vestibulum et, malesuada adipiscing, dui. Nunc interdum lacus sit amet orci.

August 28, 2018 This article  was originally published in BusinessDay Newspaper, August 22, 2018 It was Falz the bahd guy who recently called out critics for “shooting down the messenger and missing the message”, as he responded to blacklash on his “This is Nigeria” video. Perhaps, this is new territory for Falz, but not so for social researchers and public opinion pollsters. We are often criticized for the results and findings of our polls; more so, by people who have neither read the research report nor understand the methodology adopted in conducting the poll, survey or research study. The rise or fall of any piece of research or public opinion poll lies in its methodology. In other words, what determines whether anyone should give a hoot about the findings of a poll or what confers credibility on any piece of research are in its ability to answer some questions – how was the poll conducted? how was primary data collected? how were the questions worded? how representative is the data? what’s the sample size of the poll? and what’s the margin of error, amongst other questions. Public opinion polls are an essential part of politics, democracy, markets and social life in developed societies. From political predictions and approval ratings, to titles of Hollywood movies and song-of-the-week picks, polls are tools used to measure and gauge public opinion on issues affecting the society. Let’s take a step backward to define “public opinion”; it simply refers to the mind, thought and expression of the general population on a particular issue or subject matter. Is public opinion polling new? Certainly not, polling isn’t new. It was Jacques Necker, French statesman and Finance Minister under King Louis XVI, who in the 18th century, first emphasized the importance of L’opinion publique, as he advocated for the publishing of government accounts and budgets in order to boost public confidence in the years preceding the French Revolution. However, public opinion polling was popularized in America. It was George Gallup, founder of the renowned Gallup Poll and father of public opinion polling, who in the 1930s concluded that there was no difference between polling on toothpaste and politics. In recent times too, pollsters like Stanley Greenberg, have been hailed as the father of modern polling techniques and described as a man who doesn’t just have a finger on the people’s pulse, but has an IV injected into it. How useful are polls? For governance to be effective, it must be inclusive and participatory. Opinion polling is significant tool that can enhance inclusiveness and participation in governance. In the United States for instance, polling has become an entrenched part of democracy, as the need to understand what the public think is considered to be at the heart of governance. This disposition was aptly captured by Abraham Lincoln, who was quoted to have said “what I want to get done is what the people desire to have done, and the question for me is how to find that out exactly.” President Franklin Roosevelt relied on pollsters like Emil Hurja and Princeton professor Hadley Cantrill to shape strategies and public policy; same with President JF Kennedy. Likewise, President Ronald Reagan’s White House relied on polling support from Dr. Richard Wirthlin; while Presidents Bill Clinton and George W. Bush relied heavily on the polling gurus like Jeremy Rosner, Justin Wallin and Al Quinlan. Apart from the United States, there’s evidence to suggest that several global leaders and members of parliament (MPs) have in the recent decades relied on opinion research to help shape public policy and reforms in their countries – from Prime Ministers Tony Blair and Julia Gillard, to Presidents Nelson Mandela, Mikheil Saakashvili, and Viktor Yushchenko to mention a few. Conducting scientific polls Beyond media vox-pop and adhoc straw polls, which involve people responding to a set of questions without reference to how respondents are selected; there are certain indicators that can make a poll, survey or research study scientific. When we say a poll is “scientific”, it simply means the poll has been conducted through a set of rigorous processes and quality control mechanism to produce certain results; and that those processes can be replicated to produce about the same result, with some level of confidence and percentage of replicability. Several terminologies can be associated with polling, such as: Research population, Sampling technique, Sample size, Fielding and data collection, CAPI and PAPI, Questionnaire design, Question wording, margin of error, randomization and stratification amongst others. These would normally make up a full module in a survey research course, or an article for another day. My intention isn’t to make readers polling experts from this one article; but to help demystify the myth often associated with public opinion polls in Nigeria, and appreciate what makes good versus bad polls. Consequently, I would like to touch on a few of those terminologies that I consider fundamental to public opinion polling. Research population All polls are based on samples drawn from larger populations. The purpose of every opinion poll is to attempt to use a sample to make inferences or form conclusions on the larger population. With a population of between 180 and 200 million Nigerians, is it possible to access the entire population for a poll or survey? As far as social research is concerned, it is simply impracticable to have access to the entire 180 million Nigerians, unless you’re on a mission to conduct a census. Census studies don’t come cheap. Nigeria’s last census was conducted in 2006, and ought to be repeated every 10 years; however, due to financial constraints the country missed its 2016 census target and is still shopping for funds to conduct a fresh census. Notwithstanding, if the total population isn’t accessible, then we can rely on a research population. A research population is a well-defined collection of individuals or objects that have similar characteristics to the universe (total population), from which samples can be drawn for a poll. The next issue is then how the samples are drawn. Samples have to be selected randomly from the population. In other words, samples should be selected in such a way that every individual or object within the research population has an equal opportunity of being selected. This is called the principle of randomization. The concept of sampling As a pollster, one question I typically get asked borders on the issue of sample size – how can a mere 1,000 or 5,000 sample size poll tell us what over 180 million Nigerians are thinking on a particular issue? My constant response to those who ask is simple – it isn’t about the size of the sample, but the selection of the sample. As we often quip in polling parlance, when you fall ill and visit the hospital, the lab scientist doesn’t need to draw out your entire blood to check what’s wrong with you. He simply takes a tiny little blood sample for the test. This is the exact principle applied in public opinion polling. We mustn’t sample 1 Million Nigerians to know what Nigerians think on any matter. This concept has long been established in social sciences. In 1936, it was Gallup who demystified polling and dealt a major upset on the US presidential election prediction of Literary Digest. The magazine had sent out over 2 million dummy ballots from vehicle registration database and telephone directories, at considerable time and cost, in order to predict the election result. Gallup, on the other hand, used a sample of only 5,000 to predict that Roosevelt would take the lead in at least 40 states and carry the popular vote by 56 percent to 44 percent margin. Needless to say, it was a humiliating upset for Literary Digest, as Gallup succeeded in establishing that as far as survey sample size is concerned, more isn’t always better. Therefore, a scientifically selected sample of the general population was not only much cheaper and easier to handle, it would produce more accurate results. Good vs Bad Polls Without sounding academic, there are certain features that ought to be reported in poll reports to be ticked as good. Conversely, where they do not exist, the findings of such polls can simply be considered as bad polls. Organizations like American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) and the National Council for Public Polls (NCPP) have provided certain standards of disclosure to guide polling firms. While journalists and poll consumers may not be able to tell or assess the quality control criteria adopted on the poll; it is expected that good polls should provide information regarding: (1) Sampling (from what population was the sample selected? was data collected using a random or non-random sample? how many interviews were completed?), (2) Data collection (how was data collected? was data collected using face-to-face, telephone, web-based or SMS technique? (3) Question wording (were questions worded in a clear and neutral manner?), (4) Fielding dates (what were the specific dates of data collection?), and (5) Response rate (some sense of how many people were contacted and how many responded is always useful). I find most poll consumers are unaware of these features, consequently poll results and reports are simply interpreted based on the reader’s premonition and worldview. In Nigeria for instance, politicians are quick to celebrate polls that seem to be in line with their predisposition, and shoot down polls that do not conform. They are partly responsible for the proliferation of fake or bad polls, which seek to support their political leanings. Interestingly, there’s usually a seasonal upsurge in opinion polling activities and report released during an election year; and as we build up to 2019 elections there would be many fly-by-night pollsters on the loose. The questions for discerning consumers of opinion poll reports should be – where have these pollsters been before now? Should we assume they are new or budding polling firms? And if they are, great! But would they continue their polling services after elections have come and gone? So, when next you find yourself consuming the report from a public opinion poll, just before you hail it or shoot it down, depending on your socio-political leaning, be sure to spend a few more minutes to ascertain how it was conducted using some of the tips discussed above. That way, you would be better armed to judge for yourself if the poll should be given some attention or simply discarded as a mere academic exercise. Dr. Bell Ihua is a public opinion polling expert and Chief Executive Officer at NOIPolls. He writes from Abuja.

Abuja, Nigeria. August 14th, 2018 – 12th August every year is the date set aside by the United Nations to commemorate the International Youth Day (IYD), in order to create awareness and advocate the cause of young people all over the world. The commemoration of the day is to draw attention to a given set of cultural and legal issues surrounding the youth population. It is intended as an opportunity for governments and other institutions to draw attention to youth issues worldwide. The theme for the 2018 International Youth Day is “Safe Spaces for Youth”. Youth need safe spaces where they can come together, engage in activities related to their diverse needs and interests, participate in decision making processes and freely express themselves. Safe spaces such as civic spaces enable youth to engage in governance issues. The United Nation Secretary-General, António Guterres, while speaking in an event stated that the hopes of the world rest on young people. He further specified that peace, economic dynamism, social justice, tolerance — all this and more, today and tomorrow, depends on tapping into the power of youth. In commemorating the 2018 International Youth Day, NOIPolls presents a throwback from previous public opinion poll which gauged the perception of Nigerians on the age preference for the 2019 presidential candidate. Spurred by several discussions in the social space, particularly the #NotTooYoungToRun Campaign led by the youth advocacy organisation YIAGA, the poll revealed that Nigerians would prefer middle-aged presidential candidates, between the ages of 40 – 60 years mainly because they are perceived to combine youthful energy, experience and maturity. Interestingly, this finding is consistent with the campaign of civil society organizations on government to place emphasis on youth inclusiveness, in order to ensure a vibrant future for all. With over 60 percent of Nigeria’s population as youth, it is important that young people have access to education, skills and opportunities to enable them contribute to nation building. While commemorating this year’s IYD, the National Treasurer of the National Youth Council of Nigeria, Mr Uko Michael, an umbrella body of Nigerian youth organisations, stated that it is an indisputable fact of history that Nigerian youths contributed immensely to the struggle and campaign for political independence and restoration of democracy. The chart below revealed that 48 percent of Nigerians polled indicated that they would prefer middle-aged presidential candidates. This was followed by 35 percent of the respondents who expressed their preference to see young Nigerians emerging as candidates in 2019; and as expected, respondents aged between 18 – 35 years accounted for the largest proportion (37 percent) in this category. Similarly, in terms of age preference for the 2019 presidential candidates the poll revealed that a significant majority of Nigerians (64 percent) would prefer candidates between the ages of 40 – 50 years; forllowed by 10 percent who prefer candidates between 50 and 60 years old. In order words, almost 8 in 10 respondents (79 percent) would prefer presidential candidates between the ages of 40 and 60 years. Global explosion in knowledge and social consciousness have enhanced the capacity of Nigerian youths. However, their ability to utilize these resources effectively to drive national transformation would depend on the leadership opportunities available to them. The chart below revealed that although a vast majority of Nigerians say they would support young to middle-aged pesidential candidates in 2019, there are still some key hinderances preventing younger politicians and professionals from vying for elective public offices. Top amongst the factors mentioned include: financial constraints (40 percent), godfatherism and political cabal (23 percent), lack of experience (15 percent) and lack of political platforms (10 percent) amongst other factors. In conclusion, the poll revealed that most Nigerians prefer young (35 percent) to middle-aged (48 percent) presidential candidates in the 2019 presidential elections. However, the reality has been that young Nigerians are often excluded or overlooked as political candidates. Politics is typically regarded as a space for politically experienced men, hence young people are systematically marginalized because of their age, fierce competition for limited positions, and projected lack of experience. According to an independent research by the British Council, by 2030; “Youth not oil, will be Nigeria’s greatest asset”.[1] However, the way Nigeria regards the youth and their place in the leadership of this nation is fundamental to youth inclusion and political representation. Lastly, it is pertinent that young Nigerians volunteer and vye for various political and non-political roles so as to contribute meaningfully to national development. Disclaimer This press release has been produced by NOIPolls Limited to provide information on all issues which form the subject matter of the document. Kindly note that while we are willing to share results from our polls with the general public, we only request that NOIPolls be acknowledged as author whenever and wherever our poll results are used, cited or published. For more information, please visit our website www.noi-polls.com and you can also download our mobile app NOIPolls on your smart phone. NOIPolls hereby certifies that all the views expressed in this document accurately reflect its views of respondents surveyed for the poll, and background information is based on information from various sources that it believes are reliable; however, no representation is made that it is accurate or complete. Whilst reasonable care has been taken in preparing this document, no responsibility or liability is accepted for errors or fact or for any views expressed herein by NOIPolls for actions taken as a result of information provided in this report. Any ratings, forecasts, estimates, opinions or views herein constitute a judgment as at the date of this document. If the date of this document is not current, the views and content may not reflect NOIPolls’ current findings and/or thinking. Press Contact The Editor Email: editor@noi-polls.com [1] https://theg6nation.blogspot.com/2014/12/rethink-what-nigeria-demands-is.html

Abuja, Nigeria. August 7th, 2018 – An excerpt from NOIPolls National Survey conducted in 2017 has revealed that a larger proportion (47 percent) of the adult population believe that taxes paid by Nigerians are not used for the right purpose of infrastructural development and services but rather used for something else. Corroborating these findings, an analysis of the Federal Government Budget for the past few years by Price Water House Coopers (PwC) in 2015 shows that tax revenue has essentially been spent on debt financing and recurrent expenditure, a significant amount of which goes to salaries, travels and other overheads. More findings revealed that the greater proportion of Nigerians are not compliant with tax laws as 46 percent claimed they do not pay their income taxes and 7 percent reported that they are unaware of tax payment. However, 44 percent of adult population claimed that they pay their income taxes and adults in urban areas (45 percent) are more likely to pay their income taxes more than those in rural areas (42 percent). The survey report further identified that when disaggregated by region, the proportion of adults who pay their income taxes are highest in North-Central (58 percent), while the regions that are most likely not to pay their income taxes are adults from the North-West (56 percent). Regarding the issue of VAT, about half (43 percent) of the adult population (which formed the majority) stated that the current rate of 5% VAT regime is too high. Finally, the survey report identified that, more than one-third of the adult population (38 percent) think that Nigeria’s tax procedures are not simple to understand and easy to obey. In line with the ‘Ease of Paying Taxes’, Nigeria is currently ranked 145th out of the 190 countries rated globally on the 2018 World Bank Ease of Doing Business Index .[1] However, in February 2017, the Federal Executive Council approved the revised National Tax Policy in order to have a robust tax system that would promote investment and improve revenue for sustainable national development. The Minister of Finance, Mrs. Kemi Adeosun emphasized that the new tax policies would remove obsolete, ambiguous and contradictory provisions in the laws, increase government revenue and simplify the process of paying taxes and doing business.[2] Survey Findings Nationwide, 47 percent of the adult population think that taxes paid by Nigerians are “used for something else” other than services and infrastructure development. 36 percent reported that taxes are used for services or infrastructure development. About 16 percent reported that they don’t know what taxes paid are used for. Corroborating these findings, an analysis of the federal government budget for the past few years by PwC (2015) shows that tax revenue has essentially been spent on debt financing and recurrent expenditure, a significant amount of which goes to salaries, travels and other overheads. Furthermore, at a tax stakeholder forum organized by PwC, a survey was conducted to find out why many Nigerians do not pay tax. The result was insightful but not surprising. A majority (70%) said it is because people cannot see taxpayer money at work, 22.5% said it was due to the tax rules that are unclear and compliance processes that are too complex, while 7.5% said it is due to poor enforcement by tax authorities. A major implication of these findings is that judicious use of tax payers’ money should be made seen to have been properly utilized. This will encourage tax payers to continue to pay taxes. Adult males are more likely to think that taxes paid by Nigerians are being used for something else (49 percent) than adult females (45 percent). On the other hand, more women are more likely to report that they don’t know what the taxes paid are being used for (20 percent) than men (13 percent). Middle aged adults who are between 36-60 years of age are most likely to say that tax payers money are used for something else (53 percent) than younger people who are between 18-35 years of age (44 percent). The proportion of adults who are from the South-South region are more likely to say that taxes paid by people are used for something else (65 percent). A number of other studies have shown that government’s fulfillment of social/fiscal contract with their citizens significantly encourages voluntary tax compliance. Nationwide, 44 percent of adult population report that they pay their income taxes, 46 percent do not pay their income taxes, and 7 percent reported that they don’t know about tax payment and 3 percent refused to answer. Compared to the labour workforce of 77 million at the end of 2015 according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the number of people in the tax net is only 13%. According to figures from the Joint Tax Board, there are ten million people (precisely 10,006,304) registered for personal income tax purposes in all the states of the federation including the FCT. Out of this, about 4.6 million or 46 percent are registered with the Lagos State Internal Revenue Service (LIRS) indicating an average of 153,000 or 1.5 percent per state for others. In terms of tax payment and gender relationship, poll findings revealed that women are more likely not to pay their taxes (50 percent) than men (42 percent). Older adults who are 61 years and above are most likely to evade tax payment (56 percent) than younger people 18-35 years of age. When disaggregated by region, the proportion of adults who pay their income taxes are highest in North-Central (58 percent). The regions that are most likely not to pay their income taxes are adults from the North-West (56 percent). A major insight of the above findings is that if people do not see their government as accountable, there is an increased likelihood that state demands for payment of taxes will be met with non-compliance. The NBS recently released tax collection data by 29 states of the federation which totaled N317.79bn out of which Lagos State recorded the highest Internally Generated Revenue (IGR) figure of N150.59bn, which is 47 percent of the total revenue collected by all the states of the federation in half year 2016. In terms of urban-rural split, adults in urban areas (45 percent) are more likely to pay their income taxes more than those in rural areas (42 percent). This is not surprising as those who live in the cities are more likely to be gainfully employed to pay their personal income taxes. Furthermore, a large proportion (43 percent) of the adult population stated that the current rate of 5% VAT regime is too high. 28 percent indicated that it’s about right, only 4 percent mentioned that it’s too low. 23 percent reported that they don’t know whether it’s too high or low. With respect to VAT, the finance minister was recently quoted as saying the rate of compliance is about 12 percent. More males (44 percent) say that the current rate of 5% VAT is too high against 41 percent of adult females. Younger people who are between 18-35 years of age are more likely to say that the current 5% VAT regime is too high (49 percent) than older adults 61 years and above (36 percent). By region, the largest share of adults who reported that the 5% VAT is too high came from the South-South region (58 percent) and South-East region (53 percent). On the other hand, the adult population from North-Central (37 percent) region are more likely to say that the 5% VAT regime is about right than other regions. There is a marginal variation in the perception of the current 5% VAT regime between urban and rural adult population. Adults who live in urban areas are slightly more likely to perceive the current 5% VAT as too high (44 percent) than those in rural areas (43 percent). Nationwide, more than one-third of the adult population (38 percent) think that Nigeria’s tax procedures are not simple to understand and easy to obey, confirming the need to simplify the tax procedure as highlighted by the 2017 World Bank Ease of Doing Business Report. Both adult males and females also think the tax procedures are not simple to understand, representing 39 percent and 37 percent respectively. Younger people who are between 18-35 years of age are more likely to understand the tax procedures (45 percent) than older adults who are between 36-60 years of age (32 percent). In conclusion, one of the main reasons why majority of Nigerians are averse to payment of taxes (47 percent of the adult population) is that they think that taxes paid by the citizens are “used for something else” other than services and infrastructure development. Government and policy makers should create awareness on what the tax payers’ money are used for, and transparency is very critical in changing this negative perception. There is need for public sensitization on the need to pay tax given the high number of people who reported that they don’t pay their income taxes. Government should make effort to have a credible database of its citizens who are gainfully employed and subject to income tax. Majority of the population (38 percent) think that Nigeria’s tax procedures are not simple to understand and easy to obey, confirming the need to simplify the tax procedure as highlighted by the 2017 World Bank Ease of Doing Business Report. There is need for government to engage the private sector to simplify the tax assessment and payment procedures. Disclaimer This press release has been produced by NOIPolls Limited to provide information on all issues which form the subject matter of the document. Kindly note that while we are willing to share results from our polls with the general public, we only request that NOIPolls be acknowledged as author whenever and wherever our poll results are used, cited or published. NOIPolls hereby certifies that all the views expressed in this document accurately reflect its views of respondents surveyed for the poll, and background information is based on information from various sources that it believes are reliable; however, no representation is made that it is accurate or complete. Whilst reasonable care has been taken in preparing this document, no responsibility or liability is accepted for errors or fact or for any views expressed herein by NOIPolls for actions taken as a result of information provided in this report. Any ratings, forecasts, estimates, opinions or views herein constitute a judgment as at the date of this document. If the date of this document is not current, the views and content may not reflect NOIPolls’ current findings and/or thinking. Press Contact The Editor Email: editor@noi-polls.com [1] https://www.vanguardngr.com/2017/10/nigeria-moves-24-points-world-bank-ease-business/ [2] https://www.vanguardngr.com/2018/06/fg-approves-2-executive-orders-5-amendment-bills-reduce-tax-burden-nigerians/

Abuja, Nigeria. July 31st, 2018-The NOIPolls Personal Well-Being Index (PWBI) report for Q2, 2018 revealed a minimal increase of 0.4-point to stand at 65.2-points from 64.8-points obtained in Q1, 2018. The magnitude of the positive perception of the various aspects of one’s life, altogether, is determined by the Personal Well-Being Index. Four out of the seven factors that constitute the PWBI experienced an increase while the remaining three experienced a decrease. The highest increase, as usual, was seen in the Religion Index with a 1.2-point increase to stand at 90.3-points from the 89.1-points obtained in Q1, 2018.  Interestingly, the Economic Index also increased, though minimally, to 42-points in Q2, 2018 from 41.8-points of Q1, 2018, indicating a 0.2-point difference. This slight increase corroborates the report by the Federal Government of Nigeria that Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2018 and over the medium term witnessed an upward trend. This win, according to the Ministry of Budget and National Planning was achieved as a result of series of short term interventions aimed at reflating the economy. Economist and stakeholders in the ministry have also attributed the country’s growth acceleration to improved oil prices, revenue, production, and the recently introduced foreign exchange measures that contributed to better foreign exchange availability.[1] On the contrary, the Personal Security Index saw the highest decline of 1.1-point to stand at 63.5-points in Q2, 2018 from 64.6-points obtained in Q1, 2018. The reason for the drop in the Personal Security Index may not be far from the series of security breaches across the length and breadth of the country which require urgent and stringent steps to contain them. These are the key highlights from the Q2, 2018 Personal Well-Being Index survey. In February 2014, NOIPolls Limited introduced its portfolio of indices; the NOIPolls Personal Well-Being Index (PWBI), the NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) and the NOIPolls Eagle 30 Business Confidence Index (EBCI). The NOIPolls Personal Well-Being Index measures factors impacting on the lives of everyday Nigerians; thereby producing a complete view of the individual’s personal well-being. The NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index provides consumer assessments of the economic situation and their intentions and expectations for the future. The NOIPolls Eagle 30 Business Confidence Index measures business leaders’ perceptions and expectations about the Nigerian business environment using the top 30 companies in the country. Nigerian businesses, financial and government agencies largely depend on the perceptions and micro assessment of consumers’ expectation in making decisions. At best, they draw conclusions on the business environment based on information from their immediate surroundings, while the minorities conduct surveys that are time and money consuming. However, the introduction of these indices provides indicators that will ensure stakeholders can detect and respond to changes in consumer behaviour, the economy, and the business environment in Nigeria. This report presents the Q2, 2018 results for the NOIPolls Personal Well Being Index (PWBI). THE NOIPOLLS PERSONAL WELL-BEING INDEX (PWBI) Findings from the Q2, 2018 report revealed a slight upward trend in the PWBI to stand at 65.2-points. It is worthy to note that the Religion Index, which measures people’s satisfaction with their personal religion, has always been a major influencing factor in the overall PWBI.  Additionally, a breakdown of the seven key indicators that make up the PWBI showed that Nigerians were mostly satisfied in terms of Religion (90.3-points), Social Interaction (79.3-points), Physical Health (76.6-points) and Personal Security (63.5-points). All those indices are above average. Also, the findings indicated that Nigerians were rather neutral in terms of their Achievement in Life (53.1-points) and Standard of Living (51.8-points) indices while some Nigerians were not satisfied with their personal economic situation (42-points) index, which happens to be the lowest ranked among the indices. These seven (7) key indicators that comprise of the PWBI are highlighted in the chart below; Personal Standard of Living Index – 51.8 The Personal Standard of Living Index decreased by 0.2-point in Q2, 2018 from the 52-points obtained in Q1, 2018 to stand at 51.8-points and is indicative of a slight negative trend in the satisfaction of Nigerians in their Personal Standard of Living in Q2, 2018. Personal Health index – 76.6 This index also decreased with 0.2-point to stand at 76.6-points in Q2, 2018 in comparison with 76.8-points obtained in Q1, 2018. Personal Achievement Index – 53.1 This index increased marginally by 0.8-point to stand at 53.1-points, indicating a neutral stance in the level of satisfaction in the personal achievements of Nigerians in Q2, 2018. Personal Security Index – 63.5 The personal security index decreased from 64.6-points in Q1, 2018 to 63.5-points in Q2, 2018 representing the highest decrease of 1.1-points. Personal Social Interaction Index – 79.3 This index experienced an increase of 0.9-point to stand at 79.3-points in Q2, 2018. This shows that Nigerians still have a high level of social interactions amongst themselves. This is even most compelling in a multi-ethnic and multi-cultural society like Nigeria. Personal Religion Index – 90.3 The Personal Religion Index has always been the highest index amongst the indexes, which is suggestive of how religious the citizens are. The Personal Religion Index increased by 1.2-points to stand at 90.3-points in Q2, 2018 from 89.1-points obtained in Q1, 2018. Economic Index – 42.0 The Economic Index also witnessed a minimal increase of 0.2-point to stand at 42-points in Q2, 2018 from 41.8-points of Q1, 2018. This index has consistently been the lowest ranked index over the years and this implies that much is still needed to reinvigorate the economy of the nation. TREND ANALYSIS A study of the trend analysis of the results obtained from the Q2, 2018 PWBI showed that four out of all the seven key indicators that constitute the PWBI increased while the remaining three indices experienced a decline. Furthermore, the quarter-on-quarter analysis showed that the NOIPolls PWBI experienced a minimal increase of 0.4-point to stand 65.2-points in Q2, 2018 when compared to 64.8-points of Q1, 2018. Finally, results obtained from the NOIPolls PWBI for Q2, 2018 revealed that there was a nominal increase of 0.4-point in the Personal Wellbeing of Nigerians but majority are yet to be satisfied with their Economic Situation, as the index stood at 42-points and still remained the lowest ranked index amongst the seven factors that made up the NOIPolls PWBI. Although, the Economic Index increased marginally, it has consistently ranked below average. Also, the Religion and Social Indexes witnessed an increase of 1.2-points and 0.9-point respectively, therefore, wellbeing may be best thought of as a self-motivated process, evolving from the way in which people interrelate with the world around them. Previous studies suggest that there is a very high tendency for people to become successful in life, build a strong bond or cohesive relationships and contribute to a stronger community when they are happier, leading to a healthier society (economy). Also, improved indicators of the personal wellbeing (Personal Standard of Living, Personal Health, Personal Achievements in Life, Personal Security, Personal Social Interaction, Personal Religion and Economic Situation) can have a range of benefits for the communities in which we live, thereby, strengthening our economy. Hence, there should be concerted efforts to bring wellbeing into policy-making in Nigeria. The Ministries, Departments and Agencies that form the Nigerian government should be required to provide reports on how their policies will improve wellbeing, as one of the key aims of government is to promote a good life: a life which has meaning and in which people feel happy. Survey Methods The Personal Well Being Index Poll was conducted in Quarter 2, 2018. The PWBI involved telephone interviews of a random nationwide sample. 1,000 randomly selected phone-owning Nigerians aged 18 years and above, representing the six geopolitical zones in the country, were interviewed. With a sample of this size, we can say with 95% confidence that the results obtained are statistically precise – within a range of plus or minus 3%. NOIPolls Limited, No1 for country specific polling services in West Africa. We conduct periodic opinion polls and studies on various socio-economic and political issues in Nigeria. More information is available at www.noi-polls.com and you can download our mobile app NOIPolls on your smartphone. Disclaimer This press release has been produced by NOIPolls Limited to provide information on all issues which form the subject matter of the document. Kindly note that while we are willing to share results from our polls with the general public, we only request that NOIPolls be acknowledged as author whenever and wherever our poll results are used, cited or published. NOIPolls hereby certifies that all the views expressed in this document accurately reflect its views of respondents surveyed for the poll, and background information is based on information from various sources that it believes are reliable; however, no representation is made that it is accurate or complete. Whilst reasonable care has been taken in preparing this document, no responsibility or liability is accepted for errors or fact or for any views expressed herein by NOIPolls for actions taken as a result of information provided in this report. Any ratings, forecasts, estimates, opinions or views herein constitute a judgment as at the date of this document. If the date of this document is not current, the views and content may not reflect NOIPolls’ current findings or thinking. Press Contact The Editor Email: editor@noi-polls.com [1] http://dailypost.ng/2018/06/01/buhari-govt-gives-update-nigerias-2018-economic-outlook/

Abuja, Nigeria. July 24th, 2018 – The NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) report released by NOIPolls for Q2, 2018 has revealed a 1.4-points increase in the CCI to stand at 67-points in Q2, 2018 from 65.6-points in Q1, 2018. This signifies that the tendency of Nigerian households to spend slightly increased in Q2, 2018. The NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index measures how optimistic or pessimistic consumers are regarding their present and future economic prospects. This slight increase in the NOIPolls CCI corroborates findings from the Consumer Expectation Survey (CES) conducted by the Central Bank of Nigeria and Trading Economics, which revealed that Consumer Confidence in Nigeria increased in the second quarter of 2018.[1] Furthermore, the two variables that make up the CCI; the Present Situation Index (PSI) and the Expectation Index (EI) both experienced an increase. The PSI increased by 4.2-points from the results obtained in Q1, 2018 to stand at 43.2 -points in Q2, 2018. Similarly, the EI increased by 4.9-points to stand at 84.8-points. These are the key highlights from the Q2, 2018 Portfolio of Indices Press Release. In February 2014, NOIPolls Limited introduced its portfolio of indices; the NOIPolls Personal Well-Being Index (PWBI), the NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) and the NOIPolls Eagle 30 Business Confidence Index (EBCI). The NOIPolls Personal Well-Being Index measures factors impacting on the lives of everyday Nigerians; thereby producing a complete view of the individual’s personal well-being. The NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index provides consumer assessments of the economic situation and their intentions and expectations for the future. The NOIPolls Eagle 30 Business Confidence Index measures business leaders’ perceptions and expectations about the Nigerian business environment using the top 30 companies in the country. Nigerian businesses, financial and government agencies largely depend on their perceptions and micro assessment of consumers’ expectation in making decisions. At best, they draw conclusion on the business environment based on information from their immediate surroundings while the minorities conduct surveys that are time and money consuming. However, the introduction of these indices provides indicators that will ensure stakeholders can detect and respond to changes in consumer behaviour, the economy, and the business environment in Nigeria. This report presents the Q2, 2018 results for the NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index (CCI). THE NOIPOLLS CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX (CCI) The NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) in Q2, 2018 experienced an increase of 1.4-points to stand at 67-points. This is instructive that citizen’s tendencies to spend in Q2, 2018 increased slightly, and may have had a direct impact on the flow of some business activities within that period. The figure below shows the two variables that make up the NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index; the Present Situation Index (PSI) and the Expectation Index (EI). The Present Situation Index (PSI) which measures the current perception of consumers regarding their propensity to spend stood at 43.2-points in Q2. Also, the Expectation Index is based on consumers’ perceptions of their future (3 months) and it stood at 84.8-points in Q2, 2018. There are 7 variables that comprise the PSI and EI and each of these variables indicated positive increase except for the Expected Country’s Economic Situation, Expected Employment Condition and Expected prices of goods and services indices which all experienced a decrease. These are highlighted below; Current Economic Situation Index – 44.1 The Current Economic Situation Index experienced the highest increase of 4.9-points to stand at 44.1-points compared to the result obtained in Q1, 2018 (39.2-points). Expectation of the Country’s Economic Situation Index – 93.7 This index decreased by 0.2-point to stand at 93.7 in Q2 2018, signifying that consumers are hopeful that the country’s economic situation will improve. Current Employment Condition Index – 58.5 The Current Employment Situation   index increased by 4.8-point to stand at 58.5 in Q2, 2018. Expected Employment Condition Index – 97.6 This Index decreased by 0.4-point to stand at 97.6-points in Q2, 2018. Current Prices of Goods and Services Index – 27.0 The Current Prices of Goods and Services Index experienced an increase of 3-points in Q2, 2018. Expectation of Prices of Goods and Services Index – 81.1 The Expectation of Prices of Goods and Services Index decreased by 0.2-points to stand at 81.1-points in Q2, 2018. Expected Total Family Income Index – 66.7 The Expected Total Family Income Index increased by 1.8-points to stand at 66.7-points in Q2, 2018. TREND ANALYSIS Trend analysis revealed that the CCI, PSI and the EI all increased when compared with results obtained in Q1, 2018. In conclusion, the NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index increased by 1.4-points in Q2, 2018 to stand at 67-points when compared to Q1, 2018. The CCI helps in measuring the degree of optimism consumers have about the economy and their personal finances. It is important to note that the CCI is an opinion poll therefore, consumers may overreact or underreact to certain aspects of the economy, and their opinions will reflect this. Therefore, investors and stock market analysts are advised to monitor the Consumer Confidence Index closely so as to know when to buy stocks if the consumer confidence index rises, as indicated in this data. Finally, investors should be cautious as the stock market can move dramatically on the day the Index is published especially if there is a lot of uncertainty about the economy. Survey Methods The Consumer Confidence Index Poll was conducted in Quarter 2, 2018. The CCI involved telephone interviews of a random nationwide sample. 1,000 randomly selected phone-owning Nigerians aged 18 years and above, representing the six geopolitical zones in the country, were interviewed. With a sample of this size, we can say with 95% confidence that the results obtained are statistically precise – within a range of plus or minus 3%. NOIPolls Limited, No1 for country specific polling services in West Africa. We conduct periodic opinion polls and studies on various socio-economic and political issues in Nigeria. More information is available at www.noi-polls.com Disclaimer This press release has been produced by NOIPolls Limited to provide information on all issues which form the subject matter of the document. Kindly note that while we are willing to share results from our polls with the general public, we only request that NOIPolls be acknowledged as author whenever and wherever our poll results are used, cited or published. NOIPolls hereby certifies that all the views expressed in this document accurately reflect its views of respondents surveyed for the poll, and background information is based on information from various sources that it believes are reliable; however, no representation is made that it is accurate or complete. Whilst reasonable care has been taken in preparing this document, no responsibility or liability is accepted for errors or fact or for any views expressed herein by NOIPolls for actions taken as a result of information provided in this report. Any ratings, forecasts, estimates, opinions or views herein constitute a judgment as at the date of this document. If the date of this document is not current, the views and content may not reflect NOIPolls’ current findings and/or thinking. Press Contact The Editor Email: editor@noi-polls.com [1] https://tradingeconomics.com/nigeria/consumer-confidence?continent=g20

Abuja, Nigeria. July 12th, 2018 – Ahead of the July 14th 2018 governorship election in Ekiti State, a new public opinion poll by NOIPolls has again tipped Professor Kolapo Olusola (Eleka), candidate of the People Democratic Party (PDP) to win the governorship race over Dr. John Kayode Fayemi (JKF), candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC). This 2nd poll conducted in the first four days of the election week (9th – 12th July, 2018) reveals that Professor Olusola now leads Dr. Fayemi by a significant 25 percentage point; up from 8 percentage point lead revealed in the 1st pre-election poll conducted between 18th and 23rd June, 2018. For the poll, 1,000 randomly selected telephone-owning adult respondents were interviewed across Ekiti state via telephone: Professor Olusola, fondly known as Eleka polled 57 percent; Dr. Fayemi (JKF) polled 32 percent; and Otunba Segun Adewale of ADP, fondly called Oshaprapra (2 percent). Interestingly, the poll also revealed that while 98 percent of respondents claimed to have their PVCs, 91 percent were absolutely certain they would come out and vote for the gubernatorial candidate of their choice on 14th July 2018. About NOIPolls & the Poll Methodology NOIPolls is Nigeria’s premier public opinion polling institution, which conducts periodic opinion polls, surveys and studies on socio-economic and political of diverse issues in Nigeria. More information is available at www.noi-polls.com. The poll was conducted between July 9th and 12th 2018. It involved telephone interviews of a representative random state-wide sample in Ekiti State. 1,000 randomly selected phone-owning residents of the state aged 18 years and above, representing the three senatorial districts of the state, were interviewed. With a sample of this size, we can say with 95% confidence that the results obtained are statistically precise – within a range of plus or minus 3%. Of the 1,000 completed interviews, 51 percent were male and 49 percent female respondents. Samples for the poll were selected randomly for the senatorial districts in representation of the state’s population – Ekiti Central (41 percent), Ekiti South (33 percent), and Ekiti North (26 percent); with interviews representatively conducted in all the 13 LGAs of the state. Also, 39 percent of respondents were aged between 18 and 35 years; 54 percent between 36 and 60 years; and 7 percent above 61 years. In terms of employment status of respondents, top 5 respondents are: Self-employed traders (31 percent), Civil servants (22 percent), Unemployed young people (9 percent), Business men/women (9 percent) and Students (8 percent). Signed Dr. Bell Ihua CEO NOIPolls 12-July-2018