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  • Power Improvement in Nigeria Still Elusive As Rating Of Power Stands At Average Of 36 Percent Over A

    Abuja, Nigeria. 14th July 2015 – Power poll results released by NOIPolls Limited for the second quarter of 2015 have revealed that Nigerians have rarely seen improvement in power supply even in the face of power reformation programmes; as only an average of 36.4 percent of Nigerian households attested to seeing improvement in power supply over a 30 month period. This finding is in no doubt influenced by the challenges faced from the generation, transmission and distribution end of the power sector. More findings revealed that the power sector has been characterized by an erratic supply of power as there has been no clear consistency in the state of power over this period, with months of slight improvements as well as most often, months with no visible improvement. For instance there has been a consistent decline in the proportion of Nigerians who saw improvement from January 2015 (32percent) to May 2015 (17 percent); however an upward movement was recorded in June 2015, as 44 percent of Nigerians attested to seeing improvement in power supply; thus representing a significant increase of 27-points from May to June 2015. Moreover, nationwide quarterly averages revealed that Q2 2015 recorded the worst power rating, while Q3 of 2014 recorded the best power rating so far at 45 percent. In a general view of power tracking by geo-political zones over a 30 month period, the larger proportion of Nigerian households across all geopolitical zones have generally seen no improvement in power supply. In line with this, the South-West zone recorded the lowest overall average power improvement rating at 32 percent over the period in view, thus indicating that this zone is the worst hit zone in terms of poor power supply. On the other hand, the South-East zone seemed to have enjoyed relatively the best power supply with an overall average of 41 percent. Finally, while NOIPolls continues to provide valuable data on the power sector from the consumer end through its ‘Monthly Power Tracking’, it becomes more critical for all other stakeholders to also conduct consistent step by step evaluations of strategies, transformation and intervention programmes developed to revive the power sector; especially from the generation and transmission end in order to identify gaps, while developing long term strategies that will transform the entire power sector. Brief background Going as far back as 1999, Nigeria had 79 generation units out of which only 19 were operational and the average daily generation and distribution was down to 1,750 MW. No new electric power infrastructure was constructed between 1989 – 1999, during that ten year period there was a lack of development which further aided in pushing the sector into the abyss of rot and decay. The Federal Government in 2005 embarked on a sector reform through privatization to ensure adequate and equitable generation and distribution of electricity while also setting up a commission to serve as the regulatory body overseeing the sector. This was done to ensure fair pricing and sufficient generation, transmission and distribution of electricity across board.[1] Sadly despite the successful unbundling of NEPA and the sale of its assets to private investors as generating, transmissions and distribution companies, the situation of power keeps retrogressing as Nigerians are still experiencing major power black outs with an average maximum of 7.1 hours per day With the aim of monitoring the progress made so far in the power sector reforms in Nigeria, NOIPolls introduced the Power Polls in 2013 to explore the perception of Nigerians towards the power sector reforms. The polls were conducted monthly to explore the amount of power supply received daily and expenditure on power supply, as well as the state of power supply to households and its effect to consumers especially in the use of alternative sources of power and it financial implications. In conducting the power polls, respondents were asked 5 specific questions every month; one of these questions would be discussed in this release. The result presented is a 30-Month tracking of power supply to households from the consumer end. For full report, please contact NOIPolls on enquiries@noi-polls.com Key Findings Month on Month Consumers’ Description of the State of Power Supply to Their Households For every month respondents were asked to rate the current state of power supply to their households. This question is critical in assessing the state of the Nigerian power sector from the consumer end, even in the face of reformation in the Nigerian power sector. Findings revealed that overall Nigerians have rarely seen improvement in power supply as only an average of 36.4 percent attested to seeing improvement in power supply over a 30-month period. This figure represents only about one third of the entire adult population who have seen improvement. A closer view at the month on month record of the state of power within the period in view, revealed an erratic situation in the supply of power as there has been no clear consistency in the state of power to households. For instance just when more than half celebrated seeing improvements in August (51 percent) and September (52 percent) 2014 (which also represented the best power rating since January 2013), the reverse was the case for the proceeding month (October 2014; 36 percent) with a huge dip of 16-points in the proportion of households that saw improvement in October 2014. Similarly, there has been a consistent decline in the proportion of Nigerians who saw improvement from January to May 2015; although in June 2015, there was a major jump as 44 percent of Nigerians attested to seeing improvement in power supply to their households over the past one month; thus representing a significant increase of 27-points from May 2015. The monthly tracking of state of power supply to households, also presents the proportion of Nigerians who have seen no improvement in power supply over a 30 month period and findings revealed that an average of 63.6 percent of Nigerians have seen no improvement in power supply. Moreover the months of April (80 percent) and May (83 percent) 2015 recorded the worst power rating so far since NOIPolls commenced tracking power improvements. Overall Power Tracking By Geo-Political Zones Over 30 Months Power tracking by geo-political zones over a 30 month period also revealed that the larger proportion of Nigerian households across all geopolitical zones have generally seen no improvement in power supply. Although, the South-West zone recorded the lowest overall average power rating at 32 percent over the period in view, thus indicating that this zone is the worst hit zone in terms of poor power supply, the South-East zone seemed to have enjoyed relatively the best power supply with an overall average of 41 percent. Quarterly Averages Of Power Tracking By Geo-Political Zones- Q1 2013-Q2 2015 Quarterly averages of power tracking by geo-political zones revealed that there has been no exception in the experience of poor power supply across all geopolitical zones, even as all the geo-political zones experienced downward movements in the state of power supply from Q1 2015 to Q2 2015, the highest decline was seen by the South-East zone with an 11-point decline from Q1 (43 percent) to Q2 (32 percent), even though this zone recorded the best power rating in Q2 compared to other zones. Nationwide Quarterly Averages Q1 2013-Q2 2015 Nationwide quarterly averages revealed that Q2 2015 recorded the worst power supply, thus representing the worst quarterly power rating. This is evident from findings which revealed that only an average of 27% of Nigerians saw an improvement in power supply in their area, while a massive 73% percent did not see any improvement in Q2 2015. In addition, Q3 of 2014 recorded the best power rating so far at 45 percent. A Year-on-Year trend analysis of the state of power from 2013 to 2015 A Year-on-Year trend analysis of the state of power from 2013 to 2015 revealed the first half of 2015 seemed to have recorded the worst power supply so far, however in a full year comparison between 2013 and 2014, 2014 seemed to have recorded the best power supply to Nigerian households, even as the best power ratings were recorded in the months of August (51 percent) and September (52 percent) of the same year. In Conclusion, findings from the release revealed that Nigerians have continued to suffer poor power supply, given that only about one third of the entire adult population attested to seeing improvement in power over a 30 month period; not withstanding transformation and intervention programmes carried out to revive the sector. The current state of the power sector has in no doubt immeasurably impacted the general wellbeing of Nigerians as well as the overall performance of the Nigerian economy. The results therefore imply that this sector will in a long time require utmost attention by the government and other key stakeholders; moreover Nigerians have set this as high priority in their expectations for the new administration. Survey Methods The opinion poll was conducted from Q1 2013 to Q2 2015. It involved telephone interviews of a random nationwide sample. A total of 30,000 Phone-owning Nigerians aged 18 years and above, representing the six geopolitical zones in the country, were interviewed within a 30-month period. NOIPolls Limited, No1 for country specific polling services in West Africa. We conduct periodic opinion polls and studies on various socio-economic and political issues in Nigeria. More information is available at www.noi-polls.com Disclaimer This press release has been produced by NOIPolls Limited to provide information on all issues which form the subject matter of the document. Kindly note that while we are willing to share results from our polls with the general public, we only request that NOIPolls be acknowledged as author whenever and wherever our poll results are used, cited or published. NOIPolls hereby certifies that all the views expressed in this document accurately reflect its views of respondents surveyed for the poll, and background information is based on information from various sources that it believes are reliable; however, no representation is made that it is accurate or complete. Whilst reasonable care has been taken in preparing this document, no responsibility or liability is accepted for errors or fact or for any views expressed herein by NOIPolls for actions taken as a result of information provided in this report. Any ratings, forecasts, estimates, opinions or views herein constitute a judgment as at the date of this document. If the date of this document is not current, the views and content may not reflect NOIPolls’ current findings and/or thinking. Press Contact The Editor Email: editor@noi-polls.com [1] http://www.thisdaylive.com/articles/unrealised-expectations-in-power-sector-and-outlook-for-2015/198178/

  • Nigerians Witness Significant Improvement in Power Supply Over Q3 2015

    Abuja, Nigeria. October 6th 2015 – Power poll results released by NOIPolls Limited for the third quarter of 2015 have revealed that about 64 percent of Nigerian households experienced tremendous improvement in power supply over the third quarter (Q3) of 2015 (July –September 2015); this value represents a huge increase by 37-points in this category of Nigerian households from Q2 2015 where only 27 percent of households saw improvement. This surge in power supply is likely connected to the recent general improvement in power generation, even as a historic increase in peak capacity generation to 4800 Megawatts was recorded within this period.[1] Further analysis revealed that the power sector over this period recorded steady improvement in power supply, with an all-time high experienced in September 2015 (69 percent). Analysis of quarterly trends by geo-political zones over a 33-month period revealed that in Q3 2015 a larger proportion of Nigerian households across geo-political zones experienced significant improvement in power supply when compared to Q2 2015. The highest improvement was recorded in the North-Central region (70 percent) and lowest was recorded by the South-South region (47 percent). Finally, while power supply has significantly improved nationwide, it is imperative that the recent increase in peak capacity generation be sustained and improved upon with consideration given to annual population growth rate and energy demand projections. Also, energy conservation technologies should be explored so as to augment energy deficits when there is a drop in power generation. Brief background The challenges preventing the Nigerian power sector from meeting the energy demand of its population are enormous, ranging from poor maintenance of generating plants, receding water levels at hydroelectric power stations, and poor supply of gas to turbines; to mention but a few. Massive investments have been made in the power sector over the years without a corresponding improvement. Based on this trend, the Nigerian power sector was privatized in 2013. However, it continued to experience a dearth in infrastructure almost two years into the privatization of the generation and distribution segments of the sector. In September 2015, peak capacity generation was about 4800 megawatts scaling up past the average 3,000 megawatts that have been consistently generated since the power sector privatization in Q3 2013[2]. While this clearly represents a tremendous improvement in power generation, it must be noted that the projected energy demands for 2015 is recorded 31,210 Mega-Watts[3]. With the aim of monitoring the progress made so far in the power sector reforms in Nigeria, NOIPolls introduced the Power Polls in 2013 to explore the perception of Nigerians towards the power sector reforms. The polls were conducted monthly to explore the amount of power supply received daily and expenditure on power supply, as well as the state of power supply to households and its effect to consumers especially in the use of alternative sources of power and it financial implications. In conducting the power polls, respondents were asked 5 specific questions each month; one of these questions would be discussed in this release. The result presented is a 33-Month tracking of power supply to households from the consumer end. For a full report, please contact NOIPolls on enquiries@noi-polls.com Key Findings Successive Monthly Description of the State of Power Supply to Nigerian Households Respondents were asked monthly to describe the state of power supply to their households. This question specifically assesses the state of the Nigerian power sector from a consumer stand point. Findings revealed a tremendous improvement in power supply in Q3 2015 (July-September 2015) as confirmed by an average of 64 percent of Nigerian households. The month of September recorded the highest improvement (69 percent) seen in Q3 and over the 33-Month period. This percentage represents more than two-thirds of adult population who have seen improvement and an increase by 25-points from the end of Q2 2015 (44 percent). This improvement in power supply especially in September 2015 may have been a direct effect of recent stringent regulations in the Nigerian power sector inspired by the new government, thus resulting in a historic peak capacity generation of 4800 Megawatts[4] within this period. A closer analysis on the state of power supply within the period in view shows that there has been a steady improvement in power supply from June 2015, while hitting an all-time high in September 2015 (69 percent) from the commencement of the NOIPolls power tracking in Q1 2013. This shows a difference of 19-points from its previous all-time high of 52 percent recorded at the end Q3 of 2014. In the same manner, monitoring of the state of power supply to Nigerian households offers an insight to the proportion of Nigerians who have not seen any remarkable improvement in power supply over a 33 month period. To this effect, findings revealed that an average of 36 percent of Nigerians claimed they saw no improvement in power supply in Q3. Results also revealed May 2015 recorded the highest portion (83 percent) of Nigerians who saw no remarkable improvement in power supply, while September 2015 (31 percent) recorded the lowest proportion of Nigerian households who have seen no improvement in power supply over 33-months. Quarterly Averages of Power Tracking by Geo-Political zones-Q1 2013 – Q3 2015 Quarterly average values of power supply across geo-political zones revealed an improvement across all geo-political zones at the end of Q3 2015. Findings show that the South-West region experienced the highest improvement (68 percent) average across geo-political zones, it improved from Q2 2015 to the end of Q3 2015 by 42-points, similarly the South-South zone experienced the lowest average quarterly improvement 47 percent, only increasing by 26- points. Nationwide Quarterly Average Q1 2013 –Q3 2015 Nationwide quarterly averages revealed that the lowest power rating (27 percent) was recorded in Q2 2015. However, the best power rating (64 percent) was experienced in Q3 2015 surging by 37-points; this simply implies that more Nigerians are beginning to see improvement in power supply. Findings also revealed that the only 36 percent of Nigerians attested to not seeing any improvement in power supply during Q3 2015, it dropped by 37-points from its previous all-time high of 73 percent recorded in Q2 2015. A Year-on-Year trend analysis of the state of power from 2013 to 2015 A Year-on-Year trend analysis of the state of power supply in Nigeria from 2013 to 2015 revealed that the initial months (January-May) of 2015 seemed to have recorded the worst power supply; with a steady decline in the proportion of Nigerians who experienced improvement in power supply compared to 2013 and 2014 mid Q2 2015. However, the reverse was the case in the proceeding months (June- September 2015), where power supply saw steady improvements as well as the best improvements compared with 2013 and 2014. In Conclusion, findings from the poll revealed that Nigerians experienced a tremendous improvement in power supply in Q3 2015; with an all-time high recorded in September 2015 at 69 percent. This all-time high improvement in power supply can likely be as a result of the historic generation peak capacity also achieved in Q3 2015. While anecdotal evidence revealed that some Nigerians have attributed this improvement in power mainly to increased rainfall within the same period, these views will be validated in subsequent power tracking polls which would clearly reveal the progress made in the power sector even with change in seasons. Survey Methods The opinion poll was conducted from Q1 2013 to Q3 2015. It involved telephone interviews of a random nationwide sample. A total of 33,000 phone-owning Nigerians aged 18 years and above, representing the six geopolitical zones in the country were interviewed within a 33-month period by NOIPolls Limited, No1 for country specific polling services in West Africa. We conduct periodic opinion polls and studies on various socio-economic and political issues in Nigeria. More information is available at www.noi-polls.com Disclaimer This press release has been produced by NOIPolls Limited to provide information on all issues which form the subject matter of the document. Kindly note that while we are willing to share results from our polls with the general public, we only request that NOIPolls be acknowledged as author whenever and wherever our poll results are used, cited or published. NOIPolls hereby certifies that all the views expressed in this document accurately reflect its views of respondents surveyed for the poll, and background information is based on information from various sources that it believes are reliable; however, no representation is made that it is accurate or complete. Whilst reasonable care has been taken in preparing this document, no responsibility or liability is accepted for errors or fact or for any views expressed herein by NOIPolls for actions taken as a result of information provided in this report. Any ratings, forecasts, estimates, opinions or views herein constitute a judgment as at the date of this document. If the date of this document is not current, the views and content may not reflect NOIPolls’ current findings and/or thinking. Press Contact The Editor Email: editor@noi-polls.com [1] http://www.punchng.com/business/power-generation-falls-by-356-8mw-in-three-weeks/ [2] http://dailytrust.com.ng/daily/business/35596-nigerian-electricity-stagnant-at-3000mw [3]http://www.energy.gov.ng/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=121:commission-puts-2015-power-need-at-31240mw-&catid=1:latest-news [4] http://www.nercng.org/index.php/media-and-publicity/press-releases/302-14-man-task-team-instated-to-achieve-5-000-mw-by-month-end

  • Nigerians are Optimistic about a Peaceful and Secure Environment During the 2014 Festive Period

    Abuja, Nigeria. December 23rd, 2014 – The Annual Special End of Year Poll results released by NOIPolls revealed that Nigerians (86%) reported that the environment in which they would be spending the holidays will be ’peaceful & secure’, even as they mostly remain confident (87%) in the ability of the state police command’s to respond to any security alert during this festive season. More findings revealed that the larger share of Nigerians (51%) will be ‘staying at home to relax’ during the end of year festive period while a considerable proportion ‘will be traveling’ (29%). However compared to the previous year (2013), the proportion of Nigerians that are staying home to relax or travelling has declined by 4-points and 3-points respectively. Furthermore, in 2014 there was a 6-points increase in the percentage of those that will continue to run their businesses during the festive period. Most Nigerians anticipate a general rise in prices during the festive period because activities that take place at the end of year typically require extra spending, however this perception has declined steadily from2012. Though poll results do not specify the reason for this observation, an indication from responses given suggest it could be as a result of the decline in inflation rates as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics. The inflation rate declined for the third straight month to 7.9% in November 2014, slightly down from 8.1% in the previous month due to lower food prices.[1] More findings from the 2014 poll revealed that Nigerians (52%) mostly anticipate a rise in the prices of food while 29% anticipate a rise in the cost of transportation and 10% anticipate a rise in the price of clothes. However, there was a 13-points decline in the proportion of Nigerians who anticipated a general rise in the prices of food items from 2013 to 2014 with a corresponding increase in the proportion of those that anticipate an increase in the cost of transportation. This increase may be influenced by the fear of disruption in petrol supply following the recent industrial action embarked on by the Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria (PENGASAN) and the Nigeria Union of Petroleum and Natural Gas (NUPENG) resulting in the non-availability and artificial scarcity of petroleum products.[2] In reaction to anticipated price increase in 2014, most Nigerians (78%) foresee a general increase in their spending although a small proportion (10%) affirmed that it will have no impact on their spending. Finally, in ushering in the 2014 end of year festive season, Nigerians mostly wish fellow citizens ‘Peace& prosperity’, ‘Happy Xmas & New Year in advance’ and ‘God’s blessings’These were some of the key findings of the ‘The Annual Special End of Year Poll’ by NOIPolls conducted in the week of December 15th 2014. Brief Background End of the year festive period for a typical Nigerian is a period for different celebrations, from parties to carnivals, social gatherings, family/school reunion, annual sporting, cultural fairs and art events. Mid-December through to early January is normally checked with a miscellany of entertainment such as the Calabar carnival, the Fanti Carnival and Eyo festival in Lagos. Benin City also comes alive with traditional dancing, mock battles, themed events and lively parades, when the Igue (Ewere) Festival takes place to mark the beginning of the seasonal yam harvest.[3] While the end of year Festive Season is a special time of celebration and connecting with friends and family, with the exchange of gifts, loud noise in the streets, dancing and songs, movement of people to their respective states of origin to celebrate with their loved ones among other activities;[4] the need to be security conscious and take precautions to protect lives and property is also imperative in the end of year festive season. Against this background NOIPolls conducted this special edition poll to explore the plans and expectations of Nigerians for the 2014 end of year festive season. This poll results release further trends current results with results of the first and second edition conducted in December 2012 and2013. To obtain the full report of this survey, please click here. Key Findings Respondents to the poll were asked eight specific questions; however, six of these questions are discussed in this release. To ascertain the plans of Nigerians for the end of year festivities, respondents were asked: What are your plans for the holiday? Findings revealed that majority of Nigerians will be ‘staying at home to relax’ (51%) while a considerable proportion ‘will be traveling’(29%) during the festive season. Other Nigerians who run businesses will take advantage from the general increase in the demand of goods and services by staying back to ‘continue with their business’(8%) while others would use the festive season to socialize by ‘attending family re-unions’ (6%) as well as ‘attend events’ (5%) amongst other activities. Analysis by age-group revealed that Nigerians would generally be staying at home to relax regardless of age-group; although this is mostly true for the senior citizens aged 61 years and above, which accounted for the highest percentage (69%) of Nigerians who ‘will be staying at home to relax’. On the other hand, Nigerians who would mostly be traveling during the festive period are aged 18 – 21 years(37%), this may be driven by the fact that majority of Nigerians in this age-group would most likely be students in various schools across the country which would generally be closed for the end of year holiday. When current findings are compared to responses from the previous poll conducted in 2013, findings revealed that Nigerians would be cutting down on staying at home to relax (4-points decline) or even traveling (3-points decline) in 2014 and would rather be socializing by attending family reunions or even continuing their business (6% increase) rather than closing it as usual for most businesses during the end of year festive period. With the aim of gauging the perceptions of Nigerians regarding possible rise in the prices of goods and services, respondents were asked: Do you anticipate a general rise in prices during this festive season? Overall Nigerians regardless of demographic differences anticipate a general rise in the prices of goods and services during the festive season as confirmed by 68% of respondents surveyed, while 22% stated otherwise. In addition, 10% were not sure if there will be a general rise in prices or not. When current findings are compared with poll results from 2013, a significant 12-points decline is seen in the proportion of Nigerians who anticipated a general rise in prices and this can be attributed to the relative economic stability being experienced in the country and an eased inflation rate in the recent times. Respondents who anticipated a general rise in prices (68% of the total) were further asked: Which item do you anticipate a rise? A higher proportion (52%) of the respondents indicated that ‘food’ will be the item most affected by the general rise in price. This is followed by 29% that anticipate a rise in the cost of transportation as and 10% anticipate an increase in the price of clothes. Analysis by gender reveals that more female (14%) than male (7%) respondents mentioned clothes as one of the items they anticipate a rise in price indicating that more female shop for clothes than male respondents. Also, those aged between 18 – 21 years accounted for the highest proportion (21%) of respondents who indicated clothes as part of the item they anticipate a rise in price. This age-group is most likely to be concerned about wearing new clothes during this festive season than any other age-group. In comparing current results with the poll conducted in 2013, findings revealed a substantial 13-points drop in the proportion of Nigerians who anticipated a general rise in the food item. On the other hand, there was a corresponding 13-points increase in transportation. This increase may have been driven by fear of disruption in the supply of petrol across the country following the recent few days industrial actions by the Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria (PENGASAN) and the Nigeria Union of Petroleum and Natural Gas (NUPENG), resulting in the non-availability and artificial scarcity of petroleum products, which generally impacted on the cost of transportation over the short period it lasted.[1] Furthermore, respondents who anticipate a rise in price were also asked: How will rise in price affect your spending? A general rise in price will ‘increase spending’ as stated by 78% of Nigerian surveyed; a few (10%)affirmed that it will ‘have no impact’, while some others (12%) maintained that it will ‘reduce their spending’ this festive season. Further evaluation by gender reveals that more female (81%) than male respondents believed that it will increase their spending; this is so as the female gender is generally known to shop more than the male gender especially during the festive season. Trended results from 2012-2014 revealed that the proportion of Nigerians who anticipate a rise in price will increase their spending increased by 9-points in 2013 and by 10-points in 2014. Although the belief of inflation of goods and services during the festive period has declined over the years, nevertheless, the general perception of increased spending during the festive season has increased over the years. This occurrence could be a reflection of the devaluation of Naira over these years and even in recent time where the Naira has been devalued by N13 as announced by the Central Bank of Nigeria, [1] there by resulting to the continuous decline in the value for money received for goods and services. This therefore implies that to get the desired quality or quantity of goods and services Nigerians would need to spend more due to the devaluation of the Naira. With the aim of evaluating the security situation of the environment of Nigerians during the end of year festive period, respondents were asked: At present, how would you assess the security situation where you will be spending the holidays? Recent findings revealed that majority of Nigerians (86%) claim that the environment in which they would be spending the holidays is ’peaceful & secure’. Analysis across geo-political zones revealed that the North-East zone (19%) had the highest proportion of Nigerians who indicated that their environment is ‘peaceful but not very secure’. This also applies to North-West and North-Central zones (14% and 10% respectively). Meanwhile, the number of people who indicated that the environment where they will be spending the holiday is ‘tense and insecure’ was highest in North-West zone(8%). While it is a known fact that criminal activities increases during the end of year festive period, especially with the financial commitment that is associated with festivities, the perception of a ‘peaceful and secure’ holiday environment has increased over the years with a total increase of 32-points from 2012 to the present time. This increased confidence could be stimulated by an increased awareness of common crimes around various localities, adapted security tips by Nigerians in staying security conscious coupled with the proactive measures taken by security agencies in curbing crime especially in this period. Meanwhile, the number of people who indicated ‘peaceful but not very secure’ environment declined by 21- points in 2013 and further dropped by 7- points in 2014. In the same manner, respondents were asked: Do you believe your state police command is ready to respond to any security alert during this season? Findings revealed that majority of Nigerians (87%)believe the state police command is ready to respond to any security alert during this festive season. This cuts across all regions and age-groups. Although a considerable proportion of Nigerians especially in the South-East region do not have confidence in the state police command to respond to security alerts. Trended results from 2012 to 2014 depicts that the number of people who indicated the state police command is ready to respond to any security alert increased by 24 points in 2013 and has remained stable since then. Similarly, the number of people who do not believe state police command is ready to respond declined by 24 points in 2013 and has also remained stable till now. In conclusion, the end of year special poll revealed that majority of Nigerians will be staying at home to relax(51%) while a considerable proportion will be traveling (29%) during the festive season although there will be a reduction in these activities in 2014 as some Nigerians would rather be socialising by attending family reunions or even continuing their businesses (6% increase). More findings revealed that Nigerians anticipate a general rise in prices this festive season as confirmed by 68% of respondents surveyed while 22% stated otherwise. In line with this, a higher proportion (52%) of the respondents indicated that ‘food’ will be the item most affected by the general rise in price. This is followed by ‘transportation’ (29%)and ‘clothes’ (10%) amongst other items. As an impact of increased prices of goods and services in the end of year festive period, most Nigerians anticipate an increase in their spending as stated by 78% of Nigerian surveyed; a few (10%) affirmed that it will ‘have no impact’, some others (12%) maintained that it will ‘reduce their spending’ this festive season. Furthermore the poll revealed that majority of Nigerians (86%) claim that the environment in which they would be spending the holidays is ’peaceful & secure’. With respect to the preparedness of security forces for the festive period, majority of Nigerians (87%) believe the state police command is ready to respond to any security alert during this festive season. This reflects the confidence of Nigerians in the state police command in ensuring the protection of their environment from theft, conflict and violence. Finally, most Nigerians wish their fellow patriots ‘Peace& prosperity’. Survey Methods The opinion poll was conducted in the week 15th December 2014. It involved telephone interviews of a random nationwide sample. 1,000 randomly selected phone-owning Nigerians aged 18 years and above, representing the six geopolitical zones in the country, were interviewed. With a sample of this size, we can say with 95% confidence that the results obtained are statistically precise – within a range of plus or minus 3%. NOIPolls Limited, No 1 for Country Specific Polling Services in West Africa, which works in technical partnership with the Gallup Organisation (USA), to conduct periodic opinion polls and studies on various socio-economic and political issues in Nigeria. More information is available at www.noi-polls.com Disclaimer This press release has been produced by NOIPolls Limited to provide information on all issues which form the subject matter of the document. Kindly note that while we are willing to share results from our polls with the general public, we only request that NOIPolls be acknowledged as author whenever and wherever our poll results are used, cited or published. NOIPolls hereby certifies that all the views expressed in this document accurately reflect its views of respondents surveyed for the poll, and background information is based on information from various sources that it believes are reliable; however, no representation is made that it is accurate or complete. Whilst reasonable care has been taken in preparing this document, no responsibility or liability is accepted for errors or fact or for any views expressed herein by NOIPolls for actions taken as a result of information provided in this report. Any ratings, forecasts, estimates, opinions or views herein constitute a judgment as at the date of this document. If the date of this document is not current, the views and content may not reflect NOIPolls’ current findings and/or thinking. Press Contact The Editor Email: editor@noi-polls.com [1] http://www.vanguardngr.com/2014/12/naira-devaluationll-mixed-effects-economy-says-varsity-don/ [1] http://sunnewsonline.com/new/?p=95747 [1] http://www.tradingeconomics.com/nigeria/inflation-cpi [2] http://sunnewsonline.com/new/?p=95747 [3] http://www.world-guides.com/africa/west-africa/nigeria/nigeria_events.html [4] http://www.total-facts-about-nigeria.com/nigeria-christmas.html

  • Nigerians Experienced Continuous Decline In Power Supply Between January and June 2016

    Abuja, Nigeria. August 17th 2016 – New aggregated power poll results released by NOIPolls for a six-month period, between January to June 2016 revealed a downward trend in power supply to Nigerian Households from the month of January down to the month of June, 2016. Following a relatively high record in January at 60 percent improvement, there was a consistent decline in power supply to households through June 2016, with the highest dip recorded in February at 21-Points from January 2016. These findings are reflections of the challenges faced by the power sector, one of which is the issue of vandalism of oil and gas installations. For instance, the vandalization which occurred in the Escravos area of Delta State resulted in a drop in power generation from about 3,600 megawatts (MW) to 2,500 MW, translating to a loss of 900MW in May 2016.[1] Furthermore, the poll revealed that average daily cumulative hours of power supply experienced in Nigerian households nationwide in the month of January, 2016 stood at 10.5 hours; representing the highest daily cumulative hours of power supply during the six months in view. In addition, the month of May, 2016 recorded the lowest daily cumulative power supply at 5.6 hours within the same period. Finally, although several efforts are being made by the Government to improve on power supply in the country such as the recent commissioning of four gas power stations in Q2 2016; It is however clear that these efforts are yet to translate into actual power improvement to impact the lives of Nigerians. Besides, these reform efforts can take a long gestation period from conceptualisation to implementation. These are some of the key findings from the aggregated power sector poll conducted by NOIPolls over a period of six months (January to June 2016). Background The Nigerian power sector improved tremendously in the third quarter (Q3) of 2015, with Nigerians enjoying enormous electricity supply as a result of increased generation and a historical peak capacity of 4817 Mega Watts (MW) achieved within this period. This improvement continued till the first quarter (Q1) of 2016, but also spiralled downwards within the same quarter as a historic system collapse was recorded within this period and the resultant effect was a Zero Mega Watts ( 0 MW) generation that led to a nationwide drop in power supply.[2] This downward trend and collapse has been blamed on the degree of destruction on infrastructure and gas pipelines vandalism that has taken place through the years, as well as poor maintenance and upgrade of power installations across the country. In a bid to address these irregularities that has characterized the Nigerian power sector, the federal government in the second quarter (Q2) of 2016, commissioned four gas power projects to boost electricity supply in Nigeria.[3] Also, in an effort to improve the state of electricity supply in Nigeria, the present administration has stated that all on-going power projects must be completed within the next 3 years.[4] With the aim of monitoring the progress made so far in the power sector reforms in Nigeria, NOIPolls introduced the Power Polls in 2013 to explore the perception of Nigerians towards the power sector reforms. The polls were conducted monthly to explore the amount of power supply received daily as well as the state of power supply to households. The result presented is a 6-Month (January2016-June 2016) tracking of power supply to households from the consumers’ end in 2016. Survey Findings Nationwide Monthly Tracking of Power Supply Analysis of findings from NOIPolls monthly tracking of power supply over a period of six months specifically from January to June, 2016 revealed that 60 percent of Nigerians nationwide stated that power supply has improved nationwide in the month of January. This figure represents the best rating for power from January 2016 to June 2016. However, the results depict a downward trend from the month of January down to the month June, 2016 (which recorded the lowest figure at 15 percent). The highest dip in power supply was recorded in the month of February from January 2016 at 21 points. Nationwide Average Quarterly Trend of Power Supply Furthermore, analysis of results revealed that the average improvement in supply nationwide, during Q1, 2016 stood at 44 percent. While average during Q2, 2016 stood at 17 Percent. This represents a -27 points dip from Q1, 2016. Nationwide Monthly Average Cumulative Daily Power Supply Also, analysis of poll results showed the average cummulative hours of power supply experienced by Nigerian households nationwide in the month of Jaunuary, 2016 stood at 10.5 hours daily. This represents the highest daily cummulative hours of power suppply during this six months period. The month of May, 2016 showed that Nigerians experienced 5.6 hours of daily cummulative power suppply and this represents the lowest during this six months period. Quarterly Average Daily Cumulative Power Supply Finally, the results revealed that the nationwide average daily cumulative power supply for Q1, 2016 stood approximately at 9 hours, while in Q2, 2106 it stood at approximately 6 hours; representing about 3 hours decline from the previous quarter. In conclusion, the overall monthly tracking on the state of power supply to Nigerian households over this six months period clearly depicts that there is a serious decline in power supply, as evidently revealed. The improvement in power supply continually declined from 60 percent in January, 2016 to 15 percent in the month of June 2016. Also, the average quarterly daily cumulative hours of power supply declined from approximately 9 hours in Q1, 2016 to 6 in Q2, 2016. Survey Methods The opinion poll was conducted over a period of six months (January to June 2016). It involved telephone interviews of a random nationwide sample. 6,000 randomly selected phone-owning Nigerians aged 18 years and above, representing the six geopolitical zones in the country, were interviewed. With a sample of this size, we can say with 95% confidence that the results obtained are statistically precise – within a range of plus or minus 3%. NOIPolls Limited is the No1 for country specific polling services in West Africa. We conduct periodic opinion polls and studies on various socio-economic and political issues in Nigeria. More information is available at www.noi-polls.com Disclaimer This press release has been produced by NOIPolls Limited to provide information on all issues which form the subject matter of the document. Kindly note that while we are willing to share results from our polls with the general public, we only request that NOIPolls be acknowledged as author whenever and wherever our poll results are used, cited or published. NOIPolls hereby certifies that all the views expressed in this document accurately reflect its views of respondents surveyed for the poll, and background information is based on information from various sources that it believes are reliable; however, no representation is made that it is accurate or complete. Whilst reasonable care has been taken in preparing this document, no responsibility or liability is accepted for errors or fact or for any views expressed herein by NOIPolls for actions taken as a result of information provided in this report. Any ratings, forecasts, estimates, opinions or views herein constitute a judgment as at the date of this document. If the date of this document is not current, the views and content may not reflect NOIPolls’ current findings and/or thinking. Press Contact The Editor Email: editor@noi-polls.com [1] http://www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2016/05/09/power-supply-drops-to-2500mw-after-militant-attacks/ [2] http://punchng.com/power-generation-crumbles-to-0mw-for-several-hours/ [3] http://www.nta.ng/news/infrastructure/20160614-nnpc-commissions-four-gas-power-projects-to-boost-electricity-supply-across-nigeria/ [4] http://www.nigeriaelectricityhub.com/?p=7587

  • Nigerians Have Seen no Significant Improvement in Power Supply Over a Two Year Period

    Abuja, Nigeria. 7th April, 2015 – Power poll results released by NOIPolls Limited for the first quarter of 2015 revealed that an average of 62.6 percent of Nigerian households saw no improvement in power supply to their households (from Q1 2013-Q1 2015); leaving only 37.4 percent who said they saw some improvement. This implies that for a period of two years of monitoring trends in the power sector, there has been no remarkable improvement in power supply, as the larger proportion of Nigerians did not see any improvement in power supply to their households. In line with this finding, the South-West region had the highest average proportion (67 percent) and the South-East region had the lowest average proportion (56 percent) of respondents who saw no improvement in power supply to their households. More findings revealed that over the same period, Nigerian households received an average daily cumulative power supply of between 5.4 – 7.1 hours per day. These findings highlight the existence of certain inherent issues in the nation’s power generation, transmission and distribution value chain. As a result, the direct effect of these issues can generally be seen in the widespread purchase and use of alternative sources of power (such as generators, inverters, and solar installations etc) by a high percentage of Nigerians (average of 77.5 percent). This has also impacted on the spending of Nigerians on power supply; as these alternative sources are typically more expensive to run than direct power supply from DISCOs. An evaluation of expenditure of Nigerians on actual power supply from Distribution companies (DISCOs); as well as expenditure on alternative sources, revealed that on the average (between Q2 2014 and Q1 2015) Nigerians spent between ₦3,302 – ₦3,613 on actual power supply from DISCOs and between ₦ 8,321 – ₦ 11,198 on alternative sources of power. This therefore brings the average total monthly expenditure on power to between ₦ 11,623 – ₦ 14,811. This finding throws light on some challenges Nigerians (especially low income earners) may be facing in the distribution of household consumption-expenditure; giving that the average income for Nigerians in this category ranges from ₦ 5,000 – ₦ 40,000 [1] Finally, while the demand for power continues to increase even with the rise in population, access to power and the ability to meet this demand is highly important in enhancing household and business activities, as well as driving development in Nigeria. This in turn would depend greatly on the successful reform of the power sector with clearly outlined strategies which are time bound and incorporates diversification in power generation for the nation through other available sources. These were some of the key findings from the power polls conducted from Q1 2013 to Q1 2015. Brief background The power sector in Nigeria has been beset with numerous challenges manifesting in poor power supply to the final consumer. Since the privatization of the Power Holding Company of Nigeria Plc. (PHCN) in 2013, Nigeria’s electricity generation capacity has declined from the peak generation of about 4,517.6 megawatts (MW) in December 2012 to about 3,670 MW in January 2014.[2] This occurred in a period when the forecast for electricity generation was placed at 12,800MW. On a per capita consumption analysis, Nigeria is ranked a paltry 178th with 106.21 KWh per head, behind other African countries like Gabon and Ghana.[3] The reasons for the gulf in supply-demand range from: old dilapidated plants (at least 80 percent are over 10 years old)[4]; challenges with access to funds by organizations that recently acquired PHCN subsidiaries[5]; and poor gas supply to power generating plants[6]. Furthermore, setting prices for consumers that promote efficient use of electricity is a challenge as costs vary across times of day (peak/off-peak), seasons (dry/rainy), users (commercial/residential), and geographic areas (urban/rural). Electricity prices in Nigeria are below production costs, therefore the industry is unable to generate enough revenue to cover its operating costs.[7] With the aim of monitoring the progress made so far in the power sector reforms in Nigeria, NOIPolls introduced the Power Polls in 2013 to explore the perception of Nigerians towards the power sector reforms. The polls were conducted monthly to explore the amount of power supply received daily and expenditure on power supply, as well as the state of power supply to households and its effect to consumers especially in the use of alternative sources of power and its financial implications. The results from the polls are presented in quarters from Q1 2013 to Q1 2015. Key Findings Consumers’ Description of the State of Power Supply to Their Hosueholds In conducting the power polls, Nigerians were asked 5 specific questions every month, 4 of these questions would be discussed in this release. Firstly Nigerians were asked to describe power in their area over the past month. Results obtained since 2013 revealed an average of 37.4 percent saw improvement in power supply to their households implying that the larger proportion of Nigerians saw no improvement in power supply to their households. Results also revealed that on an average, the proportion of Nigerians who saw improvement in power supply in their area declined steadily since quarter three of 2014, from its value of 45 percent then to 33 percent in Q1, 2015. This becomes even more interesting when we note that in the preceding quarter – i.e. Q2, 2014 – recorded the largest increase in the proportion of Nigerians who disclosed that power supply improved in their area. Figure 1: Proportion of Nigerians who feel power has improved, and declined (Q1, 2013 – Q1, 2015) When the proportion of Nigerians who experienced improvement was analyzed by geo-political zones, it was found that the South-East zone recorded the highest proportion of residents in Q1, 2015 (43 percent) who saw improvement in power to their households When the proportion of residents who disclosed power had improved in their area was averaged over the period Q1, 2013 through Q1, 2015, we found the South-East region had the highest average proportion (42 percent) and the South-West region had the lowest average proportion (33 percent). Cumulative Hours of Power Supply Recieved by Consumers Daily To evaluate the daily quantity of power supply received by Nigerian households in hours, respondents were asked, “On the average, how many hours of cumulative power supply do you have in a day?” Generally, over the period Q2, 2013 to Q1, 2015, Nigerians revealed that they received an average cumulative power supply of 5.4 – 7.1 hours per day. The longest period of cumulative power supply in the aforementioned period, according to respondents, was 7.1 hours per day, which is well below half the duration of one day. Interestingly, the average hours of power supply per day witnessed the largest increase over the period Q2, 2014 – Q3, 2014; however a steady decline was observed between Q3, 2014 – Q1, 2015, similar to the chart above. Average Monthly Expenditure on Direct Power Supply Respondents disclosed how much they spend monthly on electricity. It is important to note here that these costs do not include operational costs for generators, inverters, or other alternative sources of electricity, but strictly measures the cost of electricity supply from the Distributing Companies (DISCOs) on the consumer side. On average between Q2, 2014 and Q1, 2015 Nigerians spent between ₦3,302 – ₦3,613. The first quarter of 2015 marked the largest average expenditure nationwide by consumers on electricity, ₦3,613. Average Expenditure on Alternative Sources of Power As a direct effect of the poor state of power due to interruptions in supply to households, a large proportion of Nigerians have adapted the use of alternative sources of power (e.g. generators, inverters, etc.) to augment their power supply. The use of alternative sources to augment actual power generally affect the overall monthly spending of Nigerians on power, to measure this, respondents were asked how much they spend monthly on alternative sources of power. Within the period Q2, 2014 and Q1 2015, average expenditure on alternative sources of power was within the range of ₦ 8,321 – ₦ 11,198, with Q2, 2014 recording the highest expenditure on alternative sources of power, and Q4, 2014 recording the lowest within the period of observation. Please click here to see full report In conclusion, results from the power polls conducted from Q1 2013 to Q1 2015 revealed that an average of 37.4 percent of Nigerian households saw improvement in power supply to their households implying that the larger proportion of Nigerians saw no improvement in power supply to their households. When the proportion of residents who disclosed power had improved in their area was averaged over the period Q1, 2013 through Q1, 2015, the South-East region had the highest average proportion (42 percent) and the South-West region had the lowest average proportion (33 percent). In addition, over the period Q2, 2013 to Q1, 2015, Nigerians received an average cumulative power supply of 5.4 – 7.1 hours per day. More findings revealed that on average between Q2, 2014 and Q1, 2015 Nigerians spent between ₦3,302 – ₦3,613. The first quarter of 2015 marked the largest average expenditure nationwide by consumers on electricity, ₦3,613. Finally, within the period Q2, 2014 and Q1 2015, average expenditure on alternative sources of power was within the range of ₦ 8,321 – ₦ 11,198, with Q2, 2014 recording the highest expenditure on alternative sources of power, and Q4, 2014 recording the lowest within the period of observation. Survey Methods The opinion poll was conducted between January 2013 and March 2015. It involved telephone interviews of a random nationwide sample. 27,000 randomly selected phone-owning Nigerians aged 18 years and above, representing the six geopolitical zones in the country, were interviewed. With a sample of this size, we can say with 95 percent confidence that the results obtained are statistically precise – within a range of plus or minus 1 percent. NOIPolls Limited, No1 for country specific polling services in West Africa, works in technical partnership with the Gallup Organisation (USA). We conduct periodic opinion polls and studies on various socio-economic and political issues in Nigeria. More information is available at www.noi-polls.com Disclaimer This press release has been produced by NOIPolls Limited to provide information on all issues which form the subject matter of the document. Kindly note that while we are willing to share results from our polls with the general public, we only request that NOIPolls be acknowledged as author whenever and wherever our poll results are used, cited or published. NOIPolls hereby certifies that all the views expressed in this document accurately reflect its views of respondents surveyed for the poll, and background information is based on information from various sources that it believes are reliable; however, no representation is made that it is accurate or complete. Whilst reasonable care has been taken in preparing this document, no responsibility or liability is accepted for errors or fact or for any views expressed herein by NOIPolls for actions taken as a result of information provided in this report. Any ratings, forecasts, estimates, opinions or views herein constitute a judgment as at the date of this document. If the date of this document is not current, the views and content may not reflect NOIPolls’ current findings and/or thinking. Press Contact The Editor Email: editor@noi-polls.com [1]http://www.efina.org.ng/assets/Documents/EFInA_Understanding%20the%20Low%20Income%20Population%20in%20Nigeria_%20FGD%20Study_March%202011.pdf?phpMyAdmin=%2CWvBxPNpx0z2BcKe8h2UcHJI%2CXb[1] [2] Joseph, I.O. 2014. “Issues and challenges in the Privatized Power Sector in Nigeria.” Journal of Sustainable Development Studies 6(1): 161-174. [3] Anyanrouh, F. 2013. “The Challenges of the Nigerian electric power reform” Vanguard. http://www.vanguardngr.com/2013/02/the-challenges-of-the-nigerianelectric-power-sector-reform-1/ [4] Adenikinju, A.F. 2003. Electric Infrastructure failures in Nigeria: A survey based analysis of the costs and adjustment responses. [5] Nnodim,O. 2014. “Power distribution firms owe government – NERC.” Punch. http://www.punchng.com/business/business-economy/power-distribution- firmsowe-govt-nerc/ [6] Joseph, I.O. 2014. “Issues and challenges in the Privatized Power Sector in Nigeria.” Journal of Sustainable Development Studies 6(1): 161-174. [7] Joseph, I.O. 2014. “Issues and challenges in the Privatized Power Sector in Nigeria.” Journal of Sustainable Development Studies 6(1): 161-174

  • Nigerians Groan Over High Cost of Petrol; Lamenting Economic Hardship & High Cost Of Living

    Abuja, Nigeria. June, 2016 – Latest public opinion poll results released by NOIPolls Limited have revealed that the larger proportions of Nigerians (74 percent) are currently not in support of the increase in petrol pump price. This stance has been greatly influenced by the perceived resulting effect of the increase; where Nigerians lamented over ‘economic hardship of the masses’ (41 percent), ‘Increased cost of living’ (40 percent), ‘increase in prices of goods and services’ (8 percent) and ‘Increase in cost of transportation’ (5 percent), among others. In a different light, some Nigerians are in support of the increase, backing their position with the ready availability of petrol (43 percent) at filling stations, while also believing that the increase is ‘the best option for Nigeria’ (18 percent), and ‘subsidy money will be put to better use’ (15 percent) among others. Interestingly, the poll gave an insight on the actual reality regarding the increase in petrol pricing and total subsidy removal in Nigeria, when the results were compared to an earlier poll conducted on subsidy removal by NOIPolls in April 2016; where analysis showed an almost equal divide in the proportion of Nigerians in support (48 percent) and not in support (52 percent) of the subsidy removal. This comparison depicts that while the opinion of Nigerians on subsidy removal with respect to the April poll was a close call and an expression of mixed feelings, however recent poll has revealed that due to harsh economic impacts of the price increase on Nigerians, many are beginning to reconsider their position on subsidy removal with more Nigerians (74 percent) expressing dissatisfaction with the new petrol pricing. Finally, while the increase may have directly or indirectly resulted in the ready availability of petrol nationwide as affirmed by the majority (86 percent), Nigerians (88 percent) have reported negative effects of the increase, especially in cost of transportation (33 percent), cost of goods and service’ (24 percent) and spending pattern (17 percent), which has all been impacted significantly. Thus these findings therefore gives a clear indication that in future government deliberations and decisions on petrol pricing and subsidy removal, careful consideration needs to be given to the economic atmosphere and the impact of petrol pricing to the end user and Nigerians at large. These are the key findings from the Petrol Poll conducted by NOIPolls in the week of June 6th 2016. Brief Background On the heels of a prolonged fuel crisis that had lingered for months, a period characterized by severe scarcity of fuel across the Nigerian landscape, long fuel queues as has never been witnessed before during fuel crisis in Nigeria; the federal government startled Nigerians by scraping the Petroleum Support Fund, generally known to the Nigerian public as fuel subsidy and this has led to the increase of petrol pump price from N86 to N145 per litre. It is perceived that this move would encourage local refining, boost capacity utilization, generate employment in the sector and also help the government to fund capital projects.[1] This increase however has actually generated controversy given that it came on the heels of a prolonged scarcity of the product during which it sold for between N120 and N250 per litre depending on location. The first attempt to remove petrol subsidy or increase petrol price was in 1978 and since then several other attempts have been made to remove petrol subsidy. Although, all attempts made have been a partial removal of fuel subsidy or deregulation of the downstream sector, it was not until 2012 that a full scale deregulation was attempted by the then administration however this was firmly resisted by the citizenry. Contrariwise, there appear to be different reactions across the Nigerian landscape with respect to recent increase in petrol price which gives an unclear picture as to whether or not Nigerians have accepted this increase. Based on the above, NOIPolls in partnership with BusinessDay conducted a survey to measure the opinions of Nigerians on the recent increase in petrol pump price. Survey Findings The survey results revealed that Nigerians (95 percent) across all geo-political zones are aware of recent increase in petrol pump price; and an assessment of the support of Nigerians on the recent increase of petrol pump price showed that 74 percent of respondents nationwide are not in support of the increase. Interestingly there are more Female (87 percent) than Males (62 percent) respondents in this category. On the other hand 26 percent of respondents Nationwide are in support of the increase. Further analysis of results across geo-political zones revealed that the majority across all geo-political zones are not in support of the increase in petrol pump price, although the South-East region (90 percent) had the highest proportion of respondents in this category, closely followed by the South-South region (87 percent). On the other hand, the North-East region (41 percent) accounted for the largest portion of respondents who are in support of the increase in the price of petrol and this was followed by the North-West zone (36 percent). When respondents were further asked to state their reasons for supporting OR not supporting the increase made on petrol pump price, an analysis of the open-ended answers revealed that respondents who did not support the increase mentioned ‘Economic hardship of the masses’ (41 percent), ‘Increased cost of living’ (40 percent), ‘increase in prices of goods and services’ (8 percent) and ‘Increase in cost of transportation’ (5 percent) as reasons for not supporting the increase in petrol pump price among others. Nigerians who are in support of the increase in petrol pump price cited ‘Fuel Availability’ (43 percent), ‘Best option for us in Nigeria’ (18 percent), ‘Subsidy money will be put to better use’ (15 percent) and ‘It reduces corruption in the oil sector’ (12 percent) among other reasons. Furthermore, the availability of petrol since the recent increase in petrol pump price was measured across Nigeria, and the poll revealed that 86 percent of respondents nationwide stated that petrol is now readily available in their various localities. The North-West region (93 percent) had the highest proportion of respondents with this report. In addition, 14 percent of respondents, mainly from the North-East zone (21 percent) affirmed that petrol is not readily available in their localities. The impact of the increase in petrol pump price was measured and analysis showed that 88 percent of respondents stated that they have been adversely affected by the increase in petrol pump price and this cuts across gender, geo-political zones and age. It is also worthy to note that analysis by age-group categories revealed that the (61+) age-group category have been mostly affected by the increase in petrol pump price and it is a well-known fact that most Nigerians in this category are likely pensioners or senior citizens that depend on their pension as in accordance with the civil service reform decree No. 43 of 1988 which clearly puts retirement age at 60 years or 35years in service whichever comes first.[2] The implication being that the increase in petrol price would put a lot of burden on their already scarce resources. Finally, respondents were asked to state the effect of the recent increase made on petrol pump price, and findings revealed that Nigerians have been mostly affected by the increase in cost of transportation (33 percent) as a resulting effect of the increase in petrol price. Other mentions include ‘High cost of goods and service’ (24 percent), ‘Change in spending pattern’ (17 percent), ‘High cost of living (14 percent) among others. In conclusion, the poll results have shown that most Nigerians are currently not in support of the increase in petrol price, as they believe it will result in ‘Economic hardship of the masses’ (41 percent), ‘Increased cost of living’ (40 percent), ‘Increase in prices of goods and services’ (8 percent) and ‘Increase in cost of transportation’ (5 percent). Hence, it is therefore pertinent that policy makers and stakeholders consider designing and implementing relevant social safety nets to cushion the various effects of subsidy removal on Nigerians. Survey Methods The opinion poll was conducted in the week of April 18th 2016. It involved telephone interviews of a random nationwide sample. 1,000 randomly selected phone-owning Nigerians aged 18 years and above, representing the six geopolitical zones in the country, were interviewed. With a sample of this size, we can say with 95% confidence that the results obtained are statistically precise – within a range of plus or minus 3%. About NOIPolls NOIPolls Limited, No1 for country specific polling services in West Africa. We conduct periodic opinion polls and studies on various socio-economic and political issues in Nigeria. More information is available at www.noi-polls.com. About BusinessDay Media BusinessDay, established in 2001, is a daily business newspaper based in Lagos, Nigeria. It is the only Nigerian newspaper with a bureau in Accra, Ghana. BusinessDay Media Ltd is the leading medium for up-to-date news and insightful analysis of business, policy and the economy in Nigeria, a critical decision-making tool for investors and managers. It provides unbiased news and informed analysis on politics, governance, social and economic trends. Disclaimer This press release has been produced by NOIPolls Limited to provide information on all issues which form the subject matter of the document. Kindly note that while we are willing to share results from our polls with the general public, we only request that NOIPolls be acknowledged as author whenever and wherever our poll results are used, cited or published. NOIPolls hereby certifies that all the views expressed in this document accurately reflect its views of respondents surveyed for the poll, and background information is based on information from various sources that it believes are reliable; however, no representation is made that it is accurate or complete. Whilst reasonable care has been taken in preparing this document, no responsibility or liability is accepted for errors or fact or for any views expressed herein by NOIPolls for actions taken as a result of information provided in this report. Any ratings, forecasts, estimates, opinions or views herein constitute a judgment as at the date of this document. If the date of this document is not current, the views and content may not reflect NOIPolls’ current findings and/or thinking. Press Contact The Editor Email: editor@noi-polls.com [1] http://www.vanguardngr.com/2016/05/fuel-price-hike-nigeria-wasted-n10trn-subsidy/ [2] http://thepointernewsonline.com p=5561/?

  • Nigerians express concern over delay in passing 2016 budget

    Abuja, Nigeria. April 26th, 2016 – Latest public opinion poll released by NOIPolls has revealed that Nigerians have expressed concern over delays in the approval and signing of the 2016 budget. This sums up the result of the nationwide poll, where an average of about 8 in 10 respondents who seemed aware of the non-passage of the budget, thought that the release of the budget was long overdue and cautioned that further delays could adversely affect the country. Curiously, when probed on the sort of adverse effects the delay could have on the country, about 3 in 10 Nigerians thought it could ‘slow down business activities’, while others thought it could lead to ‘stagnation in the economy’ (17 percent), ‘poor budget implementation’ (13 percent), ‘deepening the fuel crisis’ (11 percent) and ‘increase in prices of goods and services’ amongst others. Similarly, when asked about which sectors of the economy should be given priority in the 2016 budget, the Agricultural sector was first mentioned (30 percent), followed by Education (21 percent), Job creation (13 percent), Health (8 percent) and Power (8 percent) amongst other sectors. These are the key findings from the 2016 Budget Poll conducted by NOIPolls in the week of April 18th 2016. Brief Background In March 2016, the Nigerian National Assembly passed the 2016 budget, with an unusual reduction in the budget’s total. According to news reports, this is the first time since 1999 that the National Assembly would approve an amount lower than the figure proposed by the executive. Following the passage of the 2016 budget, reports revealed the President has ordered all the ministries, departments and agencies (MDAs) to thoroughly review the budget before it is sent to him for approval in order to ascertain if any significant amendments were made by the legislature that are inconsistent with the spending plan of the executive arm of government.[1] It is four months and counting since the President presented the Nigerian 2016 budget before the National Assembly, though, yet to be approved. This budget is perhaps the most important piece of document in governance apart from the constitution since it is through the budget that resources are allocated to deliver public goods and services to the people. It is therefore not surprising that politicians, public servants, political activists, development practitioners, the civil society and other stakeholders engage intensely with the budgetary process in order to drive development.[2] Sequel to this, NOIPolls, conducted a poll to ascertain the views and perceptions of Nigerians regarding the 2016 budget. Survey Findings The questionnaire was administered to only respondents who were knowledgeable of the Nigerian budget; this was established through a screener question. Respondent’s perception on the delay of the 2016 budget was assessed and the results revealed that a vast number of Nigerians (81 percent) reported that the 2016 budget is long overdue for approval and implementation. In light of the above, majority of Nigerians (85 percent) stressed that the delay in the approval and implementation of the 2016 budget will definitely affect the nation’s economy Budget outlines government’s current fiscal policies and in turn shapes the socio-economic outlook for a given year; hence, investment options and directions are made. When these expectations are delayed, it creates economic uncertainties; therefore, the effective and timely execution of quarterly and annual work plans is certainly more difficult. As a result of this, the perception of Nigerians was assessed on the effect of the delay in the approval of the budget and findings revealed that most respondents (31 percent) perceive ‘slow down business activities’ as an effect of the delay. This is followed by respondents who cited ‘stagnation in the economy’ (17 percent), ‘poor budget implementation’ (13 percent), ‘deepening fuel crisis’ (11 percent) and ‘increase in prices of goods and services’ (9 percent) other mentions. An assessment of the perception of Nigerians on the order of priority in the budget considering the sector of the Nigerian economy revealed that 3 in 10 Nigerians (30 percent) believe that the agricultural sector deserves the highest allocation in the 2016 budget. This is no surprise considering the great potentials that lie in the agricultural sector. Other mentions include ‘education’ (21 percent), ‘job creation’ (13 percent), ‘health’ (8 percent) and ‘power’ (8 percent) amongst other sectors. In conclusion, 3 in 10 Nigerians have affirmed that the delay in approval and implementation of the budget will affect business activities; indicating ‘slow down business activities’ (31 percent), ‘stagnation in the economy’ (17 percent), and ‘poor budget implementation’ (13 percent) as some of the effects of the delay in approval of the budget amongst others. While the 2016 Budget is targeted at raising non-oil tax revenues and increasing capital spending, It will be promising if government should plan to align fiscal, monetary, trade and industrial policies. This along with other policies intended to boost the economy will help improve the economic fortune of businesses and individuals. Survey Methods The opinion poll was conducted in the week of April 18th 2016. It involved telephone interviews of a random nationwide sample. 1,000 randomly selected phone-owning Nigerians aged 18 years and above, representing the six geopolitical zones in the country, were interviewed. With a sample of this size, we can say with 95% confidence that the results obtained are statistically precise – within a range of plus or minus 3%. NOIPolls Limited is the No1 for country specific polling services in West Africa. We conduct periodic opinion polls and studies on various socio-economic and political issues in Nigeria. More information is available at www.noi-polls.com Disclaimer This press release has been produced by NOIPolls Limited to provide information on all issues which form the subject matter of the document. Kindly note that while we are willing to share results from our polls with the general public, we only request that NOIPolls be acknowledged as author whenever and wherever our poll results are used, cited or published. NOIPolls hereby certifies that all the views expressed in this document accurately reflect its views of respondents surveyed for the poll, and background information is based on information from various sources that it believes are reliable; however, no representation is made that it is accurate or complete. Whilst reasonable care has been taken in preparing this document, no responsibility or liability is accepted for errors or fact or for any views expressed herein by NOIPolls for actions taken as a result of information provided in this report. Any ratings, forecasts, estimates, opinions or views herein constitute a judgment as at the date of this document. If the date of this document is not current, the views and content may not reflect NOIPolls’ current findings and/or thinking. Press Contact The Editor Email: editor@noi-polls.com [1] http://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/top-news/200742-senate-house-reps-passed-2016-budget.html [2] http://topnews.ng/2016-budget-public-administration-reform-nigeria/

  • Nigerians bought petrol at average of N176 per litre in April 2016

    Abuja, Nigeria. May 10th, 2016 –Latest public opinion poll released by NOIPolls has revealed that a vast majority of Nigerians (85 percent) bought Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), commonly known as petrol, above the official pump price of ₦86.50; and at an average pump price of ₦176 per litre in the month of April 2016. The poll also revealed that the North-East and South-East geopolitical regions of the country recorded the highest average prices of ₦199 and ₦194 per litre respectively. In addition, amongst the 85 percent who bought petrol above the approved pump price of ₦86.50, almost 6 in 10 (59 percent) respondents in this category bought the product between ₦150 and ₦250 per litre. Furthermore, 50 percent of respondents bought petrol from Independent Marketer filling stations, 24 percent from Major Marketer filling stations, and 14 percent from Black marketers; leaving only 12 percent who said they bought the product from NNPC filling stations. The poll also revealed that 73 percent of respondents use petrol to power their ‘Generators’, thus highlighting the use of petrol to meet energy demands resulting from poor power supply. Similarly, 58 percent use petrol to power ‘Cars’ and 28 percent use petrol to power ‘Tricycles & Motorcycles’ popularly known as Keke and Okada. Finally, the poll highlighted the mixed opinions expressed by Nigerians on the issue of petrol subsidy, as 48 percent say they support subsidy removal of subsidy, while 52 percent say they do not support the removal. These are the key findings from the Petrol Pollconducted by NOIPolls in the last week of April 2016. Brief Background The months of March and April 2016 witnessed an unprecedented scarcity of petroleum products in the country, with long queues at filling stations natinwide. According to newspaper reports, fuel queues extended farther than the eyes could see, black marketers had a field day, and motorists spent long hours, and in some instances passing the night, at filling stations across the country. The situation was further worsened by the long battle between members of the Major Oil Marketers Association of Nigeria (MOMAN) and the Federal Government over subsidy claims running into several millions of dollars, and new reports that the government was seeking to ensure that the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) become the sole importer of petroleum products.[1] On its part, NNPC urged motorists to desist from panic-buying, while assuring Nigerians that a huge volume of petroleum products would be released into the market to ease the long queues experienced across the country. In spite of these, fuel scarcity lingered through the months of March & April 2016 and beyond the window period stipulated by the Ministry of Petroleum Resources[2]. In the light of the above, NOIPolls recently conducted a public opinion poll to seek the opinions of Nigerians regarding availability of petrol in the country. Findings from the Poll The survey revealed that about 8 in 10 adult Nigerians (81 Percent) say they bought petrol in April 2016; with about 50 percent of that population buying products from Independent Marketer filling stations despite NNPC being the sole importer of the refined product. The South-East zone (68 percent) presented as the zone with the highest in this category. Furthermore, 24 percent confirmed that they bought petrol from major marketers and the South-West zone (33 percent) accounted for the largest proportion of Nigerians in this category which can be alluded to the heavy presence of Petroleum Products Pricing and Regulatory Agency (PPPRA) to ensure that marketers comply with the official pump price. Also, 14 percent of Nigerians indicated that they bought petrol from the black market and this was predominant in the North-East zone which is the highest with 32 percent while only a meagre 12 percent claimed that they bought petrol from the NNPC stations. In ascertaining the amount Nigerians pay for a litre of petrol in their locality, the survey revealed that a vast majority of Nigerians (85 percent) bough petrol at a price above the official rate of ₦86.50, with an average of ₦176 per litre. Analysis by geo-political zone revealed that a huge portion of respondents across all geo-political zones currently buy petrol above the official pump price, however, the North-East zone recorded the highest average price per litre at ₦199, closely followed by the South-East zone with an average of ₦197 per litre. In addition, amongst the 85 percent who bought petrol above the approved pump price of ₦86.50, almost 6 in 10 (59 percent) respondents in this category bought the product between ₦150 and ₦250 per litre, while 35 percent bought the product for between ₦86.50 and ₦150 per litre. However, 6 percent of respondents stated that they bought the product above ₦250 per litre. The poll also revealed that 73 percent of respondents use petrol to power their ‘Generators’, thus highlighting the use of petrol to meet energy demands resulting from poor power supply. Similarly, 58 percent use petrol to power ‘Cars’ and 28 percent use petrol to power ‘Tricycles & Motorcycles’ popularly known as Keke and Okada; leaving a mergre 5 percent use petrol for industrial machines. Finally, the poll highlighted the mixed opinions expressed by Nigerians on the issue of petrol subsidy, as 48 percent say they support subsidy removal of subsidy, while 52 percent say they do not support the removal. Interestingly, those who support the removal of fuel subsidy hinged their position on consideration that it would make petrol available ( 30 percent), It would be beneficial to Nigerians (16 percent), it would reduce the suffering of the masses (15 percent) and curb corruption (14 percent). On the other hand, those who oppose the petrol subsidy removal were of the opinion that it would make petrol expensive (25 percent), it could adversely affect the poor (21 percent), and could lead to increase in price of goods & services (14 percent). Survey Methods The opinion poll was conducted in the week of April 25th 2016. It involved telephone interviews of a random nationwide sample. 1,000 randomly selected phone-owning Nigerians aged 18 years and above, representing the six geopolitical zones in the country, were interviewed. With a sample of this size, we can say with 95% confidence that the results obtained are statistically precise – within a range of plus or minus 3%. NOIPolls Limited is the No1 for country specific polling services in West Africa. We conduct periodic opinion polls and studies on various socio-economic and political issues in Nigeria. More information is available at www.noi-polls.com Disclaimer This press release has been produced by NOIPolls Limited to provide information on all issues which form the subject matter of the document. Kindly note that while we are willing to share results from our polls with the general public, we only request that NOIPolls be acknowledged as author whenever and wherever our poll results are used, cited or published. NOIPolls hereby certifies that all the views expressed in this document accurately reflect its views of respondents surveyed for the poll, and background information is based on information from various sources that it believes are reliable; however, no representation is made that it is accurate or complete. Whilst reasonable care has been taken in preparing this document, no responsibility or liability is accepted for errors or fact or for any views expressed herein by NOIPolls for actions taken as a result of information provided in this report. Any ratings, forecasts, estimates, opinions or views herein constitute a judgment as at the date of this document. If the date of this document is not current, the views and content may not reflect NOIPolls’ current findings and/or thinking. Press Contact The Editor Email: editor@noi-polls.com [1] http://thenationonlineng.net/nnpc-to-be-sole-petrol-importer-says-emefiele/ [2] http://www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2016/04/05/kachikwu-fuel-scarcity-will-end-on-wednesday-in-abuja-lagos

  • Nigerians Express Concern over Indiscriminate Bank Charges

    Abuja, Nigeria. July 4th, 2017 – A recent public opinion poll by NOIPolls has revealed that most Nigerians (80 percent) are expressing concern over what they refer to as incessant and indiscriminate bank charges levied on their accounts by commercial banks. The poll, which was prompted by recent media reports and commentary on bank charges and deductions from customer accounts without prior communication; also revealed that most Nigerians (71 percent) consider the various charges as simply unfair in relation to the services rendered by the banks.[1] Similarly, the poll found that 72 percent of respondents say they have been noticing various deductions from their bank accounts; such as SMS charges (49 percent), ATM / Debit Card maintenance (46 percent) and 65 Naira charge after 3 withdrawals per month (38 percent) amongst other charges. More findings from the poll revealed that about 7 in 10 respondents (76 percent) were of the opinion that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has not done enough to defend bank customers from the onslaught of incessant bank charges from commercial banks, particularly in this recession when ordinary Nigerians are feeling the pain of the economic downturn. In the same vein, respondents seized the opportunity of the poll to urge the CBN to regulate bank charges (31 percent) and/or compel banks to reduce transaction charges (28 percent); as well as those with extreme views that CBN should scrap bank charges (23 percent). These were some of the key findings from the Bank Charges Poll conducted by NOIPolls in the week commencing June 5th, 2017. Brief Background The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) in its 2017 Guide on Financial Charges stipulates that[2], if a new charge is to be introduced, financial institutions should get a prior written approval from the CBN and should be properly communicated to customers before such new charges are introduced and implemented; although, recent media reports revealed that some bank customers in Nigeria expressed concern on unauthorized and unfair charges on their account by their banks.[3] Similarly, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) recently reviewed the cashless policy and reintroduced charges on cash deposits and withdrawals[4]. However, a cross section of citizens have been lamenting the unfavourable nature of these charges; especially in the light of the current economic climate. The negative implication of the charges on struggling Small to Medium Enterprises (SMEs) have also been highlighted over time. Against this background, NOIPolls conducted a public opinion poll to gauge the perception of Nigerians regarding bank charges they have experienced in recent times. Survey Findings The poll was administered to only respondents who have bank accounts. The initial question sought to gauge the frequency of financial transactions carried out by respondents on bank accounts and 40 percent of the respondents revealed that they ‘sometimes’ carry out financial transactions via their accounts and the North-West zone had the highest representation (55 percent) in this category. Similarly, while 27 percent said that they ‘often’ carry out transactions on their accounts, 21 percent indicated that they ‘always’ carry out financial transactions on their accounts and those aged 18 – 35 years had the larger share (25 percent) in this regard. It is worth noting that respondents who had never carried out a transaction on their accounts had their interviews terminated at this point. Of the proportion who has their accounts running, 72 percent indicated that they have noticed some classification of charges or deductions from their bank accounts and residents from the South-East zone accounted for the largest proportion (80 percent) of respondents who asserted to this. On the other hand, 28 percent said that they have not noticed any deductions on their accounts recently and residents from the North-Central zone have the highest representation in this category. Subsequently, respondents who have noticed some sort of charges on their accounts were further probed to state the kinds of charges they have noticed. Almost half of the respondents (49 percent) mentioned ‘SMS charge’ which is a fee that banks impose on customers for the notifications sent on every activity on their accounts. This is closely followed by 46 percent who stated that they are fully aware that ‘ATM / Debit Card maintenance’ fee is being deducted from their accounts periodically. Also, 38 percent mentioned the ‘65 Naira charge’ that banks charge its customers whenever the customer exceeds the allowed 3 minimum withdrawals from third party banks’ ATMs. Other mentions were ‘Interbank transaction charges’ (14 percent), ‘Monthly maintenance charges’ (9 percent), ‘Mobile banking charges’ (8 percent), among other mentions. Most Nigerians (80 percent), expressed displeasure that they are rarely notified before new charges deducted from their accounts; and residents of the South-West geo-political zone (82 percent) accounted for the largest proportion in this category. On the contrary, 20 percent of respondents admitted that they often receive notifications from their banks before new charges are applied on their accounts. Nigerians were also asked to match the services rendered by banks, in relation to the charges levied on their accounts. Interestingly about 7 in 10 respondents (71 percent) were strongly of the opinion that the charges levied on their accounts by the banks were simply unfair. On the contrary, 29 percent opined that the charges are fair. Furthermore, the poll revealed that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) needs to do more in regulating bank charges as 76 percent of the Nigerians stated that the CBN has not done enough to protect customers by addressing the issue of incessant charges and deductions by commercial banks. However, on the other hand, 24 percent claimed that CBN has done enough in regulating bank charges. Lastly, the opinions of Nigerians were sought regarding suggestions to address the issue bank charges. As anticipated, 31 percent of respondents stated that the CBN should regulate bank charges, while 28 percent noted that the CBN should compel banks to reduce their transaction charges. Curiously, there were some extreme views expressed by some respondents that the CBN should simply scrap some of the unnecessary charges amongst others. Survey Methods The opinion poll was conducted in the week commencing June 5th, 2017. It involved telephone interviews of a random nationwide sample. 1,000 randomly selected phone-owning Nigerians aged 18 years and above, representing the six geo-political zones in the country, were interviewed. With a sample of this size, we can say with 95% confidence that the results obtained are statistically precise – within a range of plus or minus 3%. NOIPolls Limited is the No1 for country specific polling services in West Africa. We conduct periodic opinion polls and studies on various socio-economic and political issues in Nigeria. More information is available at www.noi-polls.com Disclaimer This press release has been produced by NOIPolls Limited to provide information on all issues which form the subject matter of the document. Kindly note that while we are willing to share results from our polls with the general public, we only request that NOIPolls be acknowledged as author whenever and wherever our poll results are used, cited or published. NOIPolls hereby certifies that all the views expressed in this document accurately reflect its views of respondents surveyed for the poll, and background information is based on information from various sources that it believes are reliable; however, no representation is made that it is accurate or complete. Whilst reasonable care has been taken in preparing this document, no responsibility or liability is accepted for errors or fact or for any views expressed herein by NOIPolls for actions taken as a result of information provided in this report. Any ratings, forecasts, estimates, opinions or views herein constitute a judgment as at the date of this document. If the date of this document is not current, the views and content may not reflect NOIPolls’ current findings and/or thinking. Press Contact The Editor Email: editor@noi-polls.com [1] http://www.vanguardngr.com/2017/04/nigerians-grumble-banks-commence-cashless-charges/ [2]https://www.cbn.gov.ng/Out/2017/FPRD/Guide%20to%20Bank%20Charges%20Circular%20to%20all%20Banks%20Other%20Financial%20Institutions%20and%20Mobile%20Payments%20Operators.pdf [3] http://punchng.com/arbitrary-charges-customers-boycott-banks-today/ [4] http://www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2017/02/24/bankers-committee-reintroduces-charges-on-cash-deposits/

  • Nigerian Households Enjoyed More Cumulative Hours Of Power Supply In Q3 With An Average of 9.7 Hours

    Abuja, Nigeria, 20th October 2015 – Power poll results released by NOIPolls Limited for the third quarter of 2015 revealed that while it had been the norm for most Nigerian households to receive between 0-4 hours of cumulative power supply from Q2 2013 to Q2 2015, there was a turnaround in Q3 2015 as a higher proportion of Nigerian households (70 percent) received above 4 hours of cumulative power supply with an average of 9.7 hours in Q3 2015 (July-September 2015). This figure represents an all-time high record of average daily cumulative hours of power supply received by Nigerians since the privatization of the power sector. This therefore depicts an improvement in power supply to Nigerian households, even as a considerable proportion of households (13 percent) confirmed they received between 19-24 hours of power supply. The improvement in power supply over Q3 2015, climaxed in September 2015 as Nigerians received an average of 10.8 hours of power supply daily. Recent improvement in the power sector has been reported to be a direct positive reflection of peaked generation of power over this period with an all-time high of 4800 megawatts1 in September 2015. This means that on the side of an electricity consumer, preferably a small scale entrepreneur who experienced increased daily cumulative hours of power supply over this period, this spells reduced operational cost especially in the use of alternative sources of power supply. Finally, while this improvement presents a cause for hope for Nigerian households and businesses, the sustenance and continuous improvement of power supply to meet the demand of a growing population becomes a more critical milestone to be achieved in the power sector; one which will gradually translate into the creation of an enabling environment for the optimisation of both businesses and household activities. Brief Background: Nigeria’s energy need is on a constant increase due to the growing population. Owing to the lack of growth and capacity to meet demand of electricity consumers in Nigeria, the Federal Government initiated a series of reform projects and policies whose core objective was to ensure that Nigeria has an efficient electricity supply industry that could meet the needs of its citizens in the 21st century by providing all current and prospective economically justifiable demands for electricity throughout the country. Due to the lack of infrastructural development in the sector, as the last transmission line was built in 1987 and the youngest plant in 1990, average daily generation dwindled down to 1,750 MW leaving an estimated over 90 million without access to grid electricity. Despite the attempted reforms of the power sector by the Federal Government, Nigeria has not been able to generate more than 4,500 MW of electricity for over 170 million people. This inability to meet current demand has led to a high rate of load shedding which has inevitably resulted in low power and complete absence (in some areas of the Country) of power supply experienced all around the nation. In the recent times the power sector experienced an increase in generation of power; in September 2015, peak capacity generation was about 4800 mega-watts scaling past the average 3,000 megawatts that has been consistently generated since the power sector privatization in Q3 2013[1]. While this clearly represents a tremendous improvement in power generation, it must be noted that the projected energy demands for 2015 is recorded 31,210 Mega-Watts[2]. With the aim of monitoring the progress made so far in the power sector reforms in Nigeria, NOIPolls introduced the Power Polls in 2013 to explore the perception of Nigerians towards the power sector reforms. The polls are conducted monthly to explore the amount of power supply received daily and expenditure on power supply, as well as the state of power supply to households and its effect to consumers especially in the use of alternative sources of power and it’s financial implications. On this press release, NOIPolls reviewed a recent trend on daily cumulative hours of power supply received by Nigerians over a 30-Month period. Key Findings on Average Daily Cumulative Hours of Power Supply Received By Nigerian Households over a 30-Month Period (April 2013-September 2015) Nigerians were asked how many hours of cumulative power supply they received in a day over the past month. Comparing quarterly results over a 30-month period revealed that Nigerians enjoyed an increased power supply to their households in Q3 2015 as 70 percent of Nigerians received above 4 hours of daily cumulative power supply, compared with previous quarters where most Nigerians received 0-4 hours of daily cumulative power supply. Furthermore, findings also revealed a gradual improvement in the cumulative hours of power supply from Q3 2014 with a decline in the proportion of Nigerians who received less than 4 hours of daily cumulative power supply. This improvement climaxed in Q3 2015 where for the first time since privatization, 24 percent of Nigerians received between 14-24 hours of power supply; while 25 percent received 4-9 hours of power supply. Further analysis on the daily cumulative hours of power supply received by Nigerian households over a 30-Month period revealed that Q3 of 2015 recorded an all-time high of 9.7 hours average daily cumulative hours of power supply. This figure depicts that on average, Nigerians enjoyed additional 4.8 hours of power supply in Q3 2015 from the previous quarter. Trend analysis also revealed that the lowest average hours of power supply was recorded in Q2 of 2015 where Nigerians received only 4.9 hours. A closer view at the daily cumulative hours of power supply received by Nigerian households by month revealed a steady increase in the average cumulative hours of power supply from May 2015 (which recorded the lowest figures; 3.9 hours) to September 2015 where Nigerians received an average of 10.8 hours of power supply. September of Q3 in 2015 recorded a major improvement in power supply as Nigerians received up to 10.8 hours of power supply which is the all-time highest since the privatization of the power sector in 2013. It is much interesting to note that during this same period, (50 percent) of Nigerians received between 9 to 24 hours of power supply. In conclusion, while results portrayed improvement in the power sector in Q3 of 2015 where Nigerians received an average of 9.7 hours of power supply, It is important that Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) puts more effort in checkmating the challenges faced by electricity consumers to ensure a maximum coherence between electricity generation, transmission, distribution and consumption. Survey Methods The opinion poll was conducted from April 2013 to September 2015. It involved telephone interviews of a random nationwide sample. 30,000 phone-owning Nigerians aged 18 years and above, representing the six geopolitical zones in the country, were interviewed. NOIPolls Limited, No1 for country specific polling services in West Africa. We conduct periodic opinion polls and studies on various socio-economic and political issues in Nigeria. More information is available at www.noi-polls.com Disclaimer This press release has been produced by NOIPolls Limited to provide information on all issues which form the subject matter of the document. Kindly note that while we are willing to share results from our polls with the general public, we only request that NOIPolls be acknowledged as author whenever and wherever our poll results are used, cited or published. NOIPolls hereby certifies that all the views expressed in this document accurately reflect its views of respondents surveyed for the poll, and background information is based on information from various sources that it believes are reliable; however, no representation is made that it is accurate or complete. Whilst reasonable care has been taken in preparing this document, no responsibility or liability is accepted for errors or fact or for any views expressed herein by NOIPolls for actions taken as a result of information provided in this report. Any ratings, forecasts, estimates, opinions or views herein constitute a judgment as at the date of this document. If the date of this document is not current, the views and content may not reflect NOIPolls’ current findings and/or thinking. Press Contact The Editor Email: editor@noi-polls.com. [1] http://dailytrust.com.ng/daily/business/35596-nigerian-electricity-stagnant-at-3000mw [2]http://www.energy.gov.ng/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=121:commission-puts-2015-power-need-at-31240mw-&catid=1:latest-news

  • Nigerians Are Spending Almost Three Times The Cost Of Electricity On Alternative Sources Of Power.

    Abuja, Nigeria 4th August 2015 – Power poll results released by NOIPolls Limited for the second quarter of 2015 revealed that Nigerians are spending almost three times the cost of direct power supply from Power Distribution Companies (DISCOs) on alternative sources of power. Findings revealed that in a 15-month period (April 2014 to June 2015), Nigerian households typically spent between ₦3,023 to ₦3,726 on direct power supply, while spending between ₦7,866 and ₦12,351 on alternative sources of power monthly. This brings the average monthly expenditure of Nigerian households on direct electricity supply to about ₦3,397, while average expenditure on alternative sources stands at ₦9529 monthly. Moreover, in the use of alternative sources, other minor costs such as cost of repair, maintenance and replacement of parts may be considered. More findings revealed that there has been a steady increase in the average monthly expenditure of households on alternative sources of power from Q4, 2014 to Q2, 2015. This steady increase could be a direct effect of severe power shortage experienced within this period, especially in Q2, 2015. Moreover, findings from previous NOIPolls power tracking report revealed that Q2, 2015 witnessed the worst power supply, as only an average of 27% of Nigerians saw an improvement in power supply in their area. In view of these findings, the dependence of Nigerian households on alternative sources of electricity (such as generators) adds to the financial burden of running household activities or remaining functional as a business. This in turn creates a ripple effect, bringing about skyrocketing prices of goods and services, and general high cost of living, thereby causing untold hardship for more than half of the entire population of Nigeria. Sadly this situation will continue to linger for as long as power supply shortage exists in Nigeria. Brief background Going as far back as 1999, Nigeria had 79 electricity generation units out of which 19 were operational with an average daily generation and distribution of 1,750 MW. For the period 1989 – 1999, no new electric power infrastructure was constructed, furthermore, during the ten-year period, there was a lack of development which further aided in pushing the sector into the abyss of rot and decay it is still waddling in in current times. The Federal Government in 2005 embarked on a sector reform through privatization to ensure adequate and equitable generation and distribution of electricity while also setting up a commission to serve as the regulatory body overseeing the sector. This was done to ensure fair pricing and sufficient generation, transmission and distribution of electricity across the nation. These ongoing reforms in the Nigerian power sector have generated a lot of interest both locally and internationally with polarized public opinion. In spite of the successful unbundling of the National Electric Power Authority (NEPA) and the sale of its assets to private investors as generating, transmissions and distribution companies, the situation of power has not experienced much transformation as Nigerians are still experiencing epileptic power supply and spending over three times the monthly charge on alternative sources of electricity. With the aim of monitoring the progress made so far in the power sector reforms in Nigeria, NOIPolls introduced the Power Polls in 2013 to explore the perception of Nigerians towards the power sector reforms. The polls are conducted monthly to explore the amount of power supply received daily and expenditures made on power supply, as well as the state of power supply to households and its effect on consumers especially in the use of alternative sources of power and its financial implications. In conducting the power polls, respondents were asked 5 specific questions every month; two of these questions (centered on the expenditure of households on direct power supply as well as on alternative sources) will be discussed in this release. The result presented is a 15-Month (April 2014-June 2015) tracking of household expenditures on power. For a full report, please contact NOIPolls on enquiries@noi-polls.com Key Findings Monthly Tracking of Average Household Expenditure on Direct Power Supply With the aim of tracking the cost of power supply for each month, consumers were asked, “On An Average How Much Do You Pay for Power Supply”? findings revealed that within a 15-month period (April, 2014 – June, 2015), Nigerian household typically spent an average of about ₦3,397 on direct power supply on a monthly basis. The month of June 2015 witnessed an increase in expenditure on power supply from ₦3,023 in May to ₦3,520. Previously, the month of March 2015 recorded the highest average expenditure on power supply with ₦3,726, while May 2015 recorded the lowest at ₦3,023. Thus on average, Nigerian households typically spent between ₦3,023 to ₦3,726 on direct power supply within the period in view. Further analysis revealed that, throughout the 15 months in view (April, 2014 – June, 2015), a higher proportion of Nigerian households (average of 42-percent) paid between ₦1,000 – ₦3,000 for power supply. Also, a considerable proportion of households (average of 25-percent) paid between ₦3,001 – ₦5,000. An in-depth analysis of the monthly tracking revealed that April 2014 and May 2015 recorded the highest proportion of households that paid between ₦1,000 – ₦3,000 on direct power supply from DISCOs. In addition to this analysis, it was recorded that there was an increase in consumers who paid between ₦3,001 – ₦5,000 between May (24 percent) and June (29 percent) 2015. Quarterly Review of Household Expenditure on Direct Power Supply A quarterly review of household expenditure on direct power supply revealed that the highest average monthly expenditure of households on power was obtained in Q1, 2015 at ₦3,613. Following this, a marked decrease was seen in household expenditure on power supply in Q2, 2015 at ₦3,319. Average Expenditure on Alternative Sources of Power Supply To ensure the sustenance of household activities and businesses, majority of Nigerians have adopted the use of alternative sources of electricity to their homes through the use of solar power installations, inverters and generators. The use of these alternate sources has resulted in additional financial strain to households and businesses, forcing them to direct resources that could have been channeled to other avenues into alternative means of generating power. Household expenditure on alternative sources was also measured and findings revealed that Nigerian households spend an average of ₦9,529 monthly. The lowest household expenditure on alternative sources was recorded in April 2015 at ₦7,866; while the highest was recorded in April 2014 at ₦12,351 followed by May 2015 at ₦12,242. These findings therefore imply that Nigerians typically spend between ₦7,866 and ₦12,351 on alternative sources of power monthly. Quarterly Review of Households Expenditure on Alternative Sources of Power Supply Quarterly review of household expenditures on alternative sources revealed that Q2 and Q3, 2014 recorded the highest average monthly expenditure on alternative sources with ₦11,198 and ₦ 9,641 respectively. In addition there has been a steady increase in the average monthly expenditure of households on alternative sources of power from Q4, 2014 to Q2, 2015. This steady increase could be a direct effect of severe power shortage experienced within the period especially in Q2, 2015. Moreover, findings from previous NOIPolls power tracking report revealed that Q2, 2015 recorded the worst power supply, as only an average of 27% of Nigerians saw an improvement in power supply in their area. In conclusion, survey findings revealed that from Q2, 2014 – Q2, 2015, Nigerian households spent almost three times the cost of direct power supply from Power Distribution Companies (DISCOs) on alternative sources of power. Results also revealed that between Q2, 2014 and Q2, 2015, Nigerians spent an average of N3,302 – N3,613 monthly on direct electricity supply while spending between ₦ 7,866 and ₦ 12,351 on alternative sources of power monthly. Survey Methods The opinion poll was conducted from Q2, 2014 to Q2, 2015. It involved telephone interviews of a random nationwide sample. A total of 15,000 phone-owning Nigerians aged 18-years and above, representing the six geo-political zones in the country, were interviewed. NOIPolls Limited is No1 for country specific polling services in West Africa. We conduct periodic opinion polls and studies on various socio-economic and political issues in Nigeria. More information is available at www.noi-polls.com Disclaimer This press release has been produced by NOIPolls Limited to provide information on all issues which form the subject matter of the document. Kindly note that while we are willing to share results from our polls with the general public, we only request that NOIPolls be acknowledged as author whenever and wherever our poll results are used, cited or published. NOIPolls hereby certifies that all the views expressed in this document accurately reflect its views of respondents surveyed for the poll, and background information is based on information from various sources that it believes are reliable; however, no representation is made that it is accurate or complete. Whilst reasonable care has been taken in preparing this document, no responsibility or liability is accepted for errors or fact or for any views expressed herein by NOIPolls for actions taken as a result of information provided in this report. Any ratings, forecasts, estimates, opinions or views herein constitute a judgment as at the date of this document. If the date of this document is not current, the views and content may not reflect NOIPolls’ current findings and/or thinking. Press Contact The Editor Email: editor@noi-polls.com

  • New Poll Confirms Circulation of Counterfeit Naira Notes

    Abuja, Nigeria. March 27th, 2017 – A new poll released by NOIPolls has revealed that 41 percent of respondents are aware of the recent circulation of counterfeit currencies (also known as fake Naira notes) in the country, and 19 percent of this proportion disclosed that they have personally come in contact with counterfeit currencies within the last three months. The market with 67 percent, proved to be the most common place where these currencies are circulated. This comes as no surprise, as some counterfeiters may see the market place as the most porous place to spread fake notes due to the wide range of small business establishments who may not notice during transactions. Hence, some businesses suffer losses due to their inability to recoup their money as banks confiscate fake notes at sight. Commercial banks (20 percent), public transport (5 percent) and ATMs (3 percent) were also mentioned as avenues for circulation. Further probing revealed that only 5 percent of the respondents admitted to spending the fake Naira notes that came into their possession. More findings from the poll revealed that there is some level of awareness of the circulation of counterfeit naira notes in the country as 41 percent admitted that they have been privy to such information, mainly through word of mouth (53 percent) and traditional media (25 percent) amongst others; although the majority (59 percent) showed no awareness. In addition, while the Naira notes are protected by a number of security features to enable the recognition of genuine notes, the distinguishing features can immediately be recognized by touch and visibility such as the raised print, the security thread and the watermark, to mention a few. In line with this, some Nigerians are knowledgeable of these features, citing texture (42 percent) and the absence of the distorted hologram (25 percent) as ways of distinguishing between genuine and fake notes. Lastly, 56 percent of the respondents are of the opinion that the Central Bank of Nigeria is not doing enough to create awareness about the circulation of these counterfeit currencies, neither are they giving citizens adequate tips on how to detect them. The implication of this is that more fake Naira notes may be allowed to circulate in the society. This in turn will lead to a reduction in the value of the genuine currency; increase in prices (inflation) due to more money getting circulated in the economy, an unauthorised artificial increase in money supply; and losses, when traders are not reimbursed for counterfeit money detected and confiscated by banks.[1] This suggests that the Central Bank of Nigeria needs to do more to create awareness on the implications of the circulation of fake currencies, as well as provide tips on how to detect a fake currency. These are some of the key findings from the Counterfeit Currencies poll conducted in the week commencing March 6th, 2017. Brief Background When a currency is forged and produced illegally other than by the recognized authority of the Central Bank of Nigeria, and is used or is intended to be used as a legal tender in the country, it is referred to as a counterfeit or fake currency. These currencies are produced without the legal permission of the state or government and are fashioned to replicate an original. The act of producing counterfeit currencies amounts to forgery or fraud , a criminal act contrary to Section 6(1)(b) of the Counterfeit Currency, Special Provisions Act, CAP C35, LFN 2004 and punishable under section 5(1) of the same Act.[2] Some of the ill-effects that the circulation of counterfeit money can have on a society include,a reduction in the value of genuine currencies; and increase in prices (inflation) due to unauthorized injection of counterfeit money in the economy; a decrease in the acceptability of original notes; and losses, when traders are not reimbursed for counterfeit money detected by banks, even if it is confiscated. The most recent statement regarding the circulation of fake currencies was made in February 2017 by a former Deputy Governor of Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) who put the percentage of fake currencies in circulation in Nigeria at 20 percent.[3] Nonetheless, the apex bank has stated that no currency in the world is immune to counterfeiting; but did state that the rate of counterfeit currency in Nigeria has been very minimal due to appropriate policies that had been put in place by the bank. It put the exact rate of prevalenceof fake notes in Nigeria from January to December 2016 at less than one per cent (0.0014%) or 14 counterfeit pieces out of one million bank notes.[4] In spite of the existence of a decree against this vice and some currency restructuring by the apex bank over the years; the nation has continually recorded cases of circulation of counterfeit Naira notes over the years. In recent times during the last quarter of 2016 and first quarter 2017, several arrests were made regarding money counterfeiting related offences across the northern and southern divide.[5] This seems to suggest that currency counterfeiting is on the rise and constitutes a strong threat to the economic situation of the country.[6] Against this background, NOIPolls conducted a survey to gauge the perception of Nigerians regarding the circulation of fake currencies in Nigeria within the last three months; with the objective of finding out if Nigerians are able to distinguish between fake and original notes. Survey Findings The poll sought to gauge the awareness of Nigerians on the recent circulation of counterfeit currencies in Nigeria and the results revealed that 41 percent said they were aware, while 59 percent claimed to be unaware of the recent circulation of counterfeit currencies in the country. Respondents who were unaware had their interviews terminated at this point whereas those who said yes continued with the interview. Further probing revealed that slightly more than half of the respondents who are aware of the recent circulation of counterfeit currencies reported that they got to hear about it through word of mouth (53 percent) while 25 percent mentioned traditional media. Interestingly 15 percent disclosed that they had personal experience and this implies that they must have at some point being in possession of fake Naira notes. Other sources mentioned include; social media (10 percent), market place (3 percent) and commercial bank (2 percent). More analysis showed that residents from the South-South zone (67 percent) and the North-East zone (61 percent) formed the largest proportion of Nigerians that indicated that they heard about the recent circulation of counterfeit currencies through word of mouth. In the same manner, residents from the South-East zone (27 percent) had the highest representation of respondents that mentioned that they had a personal experience with counterfeit currencies which could be attributed to the daily heavy commercial activities in the area, causing these fake notes to go unnoticed by business establishments until they get to the point of depositing them in a commercial bank.[7] In addition, the age group of 18 – 35 years are the majority (14 percent) that said they heard about the recent circulation via social media and this is truly a representation of the set of citizens that are social media savvy. Almost 2 in 10 Nigerians (19 percent) further disclosed that they have personally come in contact with counterfeit Naira notes in the last three months while the larger proportion of Nigerians (81 percent) claimed not to have had any personal contact with counterfeit currencies. Out of the 19 percent who had come in contact with fake Naira notes, 67 percent (which formed majority in this category) reported they came in contact with counterfeit notes at the market place. 20 percent confirmed that they got to know about the notes at the point of deposit in commercial banks. Most of these cases mainly occurred in the South-East zone with 38 percent of respondents attesting to this. Other points of contact disclosed include public transport and ATMs amongst other places. Subsequently, only 5 percent of the respondent who had encountered these fake currencies revealed that they spent it despite knowing they were counterfeit whereas, 95 percent said that they did not spend the money. In addition, respondents were asked how they could differentiate between a fake and an original Naira note and 43 percent mentioned the difference in texture, 23 percent knew by checking the holograph of the face images on the notes while, 18 percent indicated the difference in colour when compared with an original Naira note of the same denomination. Other mentions include the silver lining on the notes (8 percent) and the watermark (6 percent) amongst others differences. Lastly, the poll has shown that a larger proportion of Nigerians (56 percent) are of the view that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and other stakeholders are not doing enough in terms of awareness creation about the circulation of these counterfeit currencies as well as educating citizens on how to differentiate between an original currency and a fake one. Contrarily, 44 percent opined that the CBN is doing a good job in spreading awareness about fake notes circulation and how to detect them. In conclusion, findings from this survey revealed that 41 percent of Nigerians acknowledged awareness of the recent circulation of counterfeit currencies in the country with 53 percent of this proportion got awareness through word of mouth. Though 81 percent (which forms the majority) said they have not personally come in contact with the counterfeit currencies in circulation recently, 19 percent admitted to have come in contact with the fake currencies on a personal basis and the largest proportion (67 percent) of those who came in contact with it stated that they encountered it while making a transaction in the market place. This implies that there is a need for the Central Bank of Nigeria to invest manpower, time and resources in tackling the circulation of counterfeit Naira notes, while also working intensively to educate the entire populace about the existence of the fake currencies and how to spot them. Additionally, businesses should also train their staff, especially the ones in direct contact with cash from prospective customers on how to detect fake currencies as this can cripple their businesses if left unchecked. Survey Methods The opinion poll was conducted in the week commencing March 6th, 2017. It involved telephone interviews of a random nationwide sample. 1,000 randomly selected phone-owning Nigerians aged 18 years and above, representing the six geo-political zones in the country, were interviewed. With a sample of this size, we can say with 95% confidence that the results obtained are statistically precise – within a range of plus or minus 3%. NOIPolls Limited is the No1 for country specific polling services in West Africa. We conduct periodic opinion polls and studies on various socio-economic and political issues in Nigeria. More information is available at www.noi-polls.com Disclaimer This press release has been produced by NOIPolls Limited to provide information on all issues which form the subject matter of the document. Kindly note that while we are willing to share results from our polls with the general public, we only request that NOIPolls be acknowledged as author whenever and wherever our poll results are used, cited or published. NOIPolls hereby certifies that all the views expressed in this document accurately reflect its views of respondents surveyed for the poll, and background information is based on information from various sources that it believes are reliable; however, no representation is made that it is accurate or complete. Whilst reasonable care has been taken in preparing this document, no responsibility or liability is accepted for errors or fact or for any views expressed herein by NOIPolls for actions taken as a result of information provided in this report. Any ratings, forecasts, estimates, opinions or views herein constitute a judgment as at the date of this document. If the date of this document is not current, the views and content may not reflect NOIPolls’ current findings and/or thinking. Press Contact The Editor Email: editor@noi-polls.com [1] https://www.interpol.int/Crime-areas/Financial-crime/Counterfeit-currency-and-security-documents [2] http://www.fhc-ng.com/legislationcd.htm [3] https://www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2017/02/14/20-of-naira-in-circulation-is-fake-says-former-cbn-dep-governor/ [4] http://politicsngr.com/2017/02/18/inside-nigerias-booming-fake-naira-business/ [5] http://www.vanguardngr.com/2017/03/four-get-5-years-jail-fake-currency/ [6] http://www.nigerianmonitor.com/photo-police-arrests-man-for-producing-fake-dollars-pounds-worth-millions-of-naira/ [7] http://www.businessdayonline.com/onitsha-businesses-look-to-aba-for-south-east-corridor-expansion/

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