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  • About 6 in 10 Nigerians Think a 4 Year Term is Sufficient to Rule Nigeria

    Abuja, Nigeria. June 18 2013 – Latest weekly Snap Poll results released by NOI Polls Limited has revealed that about 6 in 10 Nigerians (63%) think a term of between 0 to 4 years is sufficient to effectively rule Nigeria. This shows a 1 point increase from a previous poll conducted in March 2011 to measure the citizen’s perception on the sufficient time needed to rule the country. Also, the majority (54%) of those aware of the recently proposed six-year single term bill are not in favour of this bill as 53% disapprove of any amendment to the current bill that permits a four year tenure with a maximum of 2 terms. An interesting find shows that 1 in 10 Nigerians (12%) agree with ‘life presidency’ where the President is allowed to stay in power indefinitely up from 10% in a similar poll in March 2011. These are a few of the key findings from the recent Length of Service Snap Poll conducted in the week of June 10th 2013 According to the 1999 Nigerian constitution, sections 135(2); 137(1)(b); 180(2) and 182(1)(b), Presidents and Governors of Nigeria are bounded by four-year tenure, with a maximum of two terms. In the past, several attempts have been made to amend this area of the constitution. One of such attempts was during the reign of former President Olusegun Obasanjo, where a third term was advocated. In 2011, President Goodluck Jonathan advocated a seven-year single-term for elective offices. In line with this, recently, the Senate Committee reviewing the 1999 Constitution suggested non-renewable single six-year tenure for the office of President, Vice-President, governors and their deputies. However, the recommendations given by the Senate panel excludes the President and current governors from partaking from the proposed length of tenure if it is eventually endorsed.[1] The proposed six-year single tenure by the National Assembly did not fall short of generating varied reactions from Nigerians. An interview conducted by Business Day Newspaper regarding the six-year single tenure showed that some groups in support of the Bill were of the opinion that the six- year single tenure would enable the president and the governors have sufficient time to make tangible accomplishments while others who oppose it believe it would disrupt good governance.[2] Against this background, NOI Polls conducted its latest poll on the Length of service in order to ascertain the views of Nigerians on how long the tenure of the President should be and to explore their perceptions regarding the proposed six-year single term. Respondents to the poll were asked five specific questions. The first question sought to determine the views of Nigerians on an indefinite stay of the President in office: Do you think the President should be allowed to stay in office indefinitely? The overall majority (88%) are of the opinion that the President should not be allowed to stay in power indefinitely. It is interesting to note that 12% of the respondents responded affirmatively as they think the president should be allowed to stay indefinitely. Although this proportion (12%) is the minority, it does highlight the varied meaning of democracy in Nigeria, as this implies that some Nigerians can and will advocate for “Life Presidency”. When the results are analyzed according to geo-political zones, the South-West zone accounted for the highest proportion of respondents (95%) that disagree to an indefinite tenure of the President. This is followed by the North-Central zone with 91% and the South-South zone with 89%. In addition the North-East zone accounted for the highest proportion of respondents (17%) that actually advocate for the President to stay in power for life. [1] www.punchng.com [2] Business day: Mixed reactions trail proposed six-year tenure for president, governors Responses for this question were compared to a previous poll conducted in March 2011. After two years the perception of Nigerians towards the President staying in office indefinitely has not changed significantly. There is only a 2 point drop with those opposed to an indefinite stay by the President 90% in 2011 versus 88% in 2013. The second question sought to ascertain the opinions of Nigerians on how long a President should be allowed to stay in office to allow for effective rule of Nigeria. Respondents were asked: What do you think is a reasonable length of time for the President to effectively rule the country? In reaction to this question, the overall majority (63%) are of the opinion that a term which lasts between 0 – 4 years is appropriate to rule the country effectively. This is followed by 33% who think 5 – 8 years is a reasonable time while 4% think the term should last for more than 8 years. From the geo-political zones perspective, the North-West zone and North-Central zones both had the same and highest proportions of respondents (68%) that say a 0-4 year range is a reasonable tenure for the President to effectively rule the country. Furthermore, the North-East zone accounted for the highest number of respondents (39%) that are of the opinion that a range of 5-8 years tenure is realistic for an effective rule of the President. Out of the minority that is advocating for a term of 8 years and above, the South-East and North-West zones had the highest proportions with 8% and 7% respectively. Comparing the findings from 2011 and this current poll on ‘the reasonable length of tenure for an effective rule of the President’, once again there has been no significant change in the position of Nigerians. There was a 1% increase in the proportion of respondents in support of 0-4 year term from 2011 to 2013 (62% versus 63%). Also, there was a 3% reduction each in the proportion of respondents that say 5-8 years is sufficient for the President to effectively rule Nigeria and the proportion that think more than 8 years will suffice. Subsequently, in order to ascertain the level of awareness of the proposed six-year single term bill, respondents were asked: Are you aware of the proposed single term bill which advocates single 6 year tenure for Presidents and Governors? Findings show that the overall majority (54%) are not aware of the proposed 6-year single term bill while 46% claimed awareness of the proposed amendment to the length of tenure of President and governors. Further analysis across geo-political zones shows that respondents with the highest level of awareness of the proposed six-year single term are from the North-Central zone (56%), followed by the South-South zone (55%). Furthermore, the South-East and North-West zones had the highest proportion of respondents that showed no awareness of the proposed bill with 67% and 65% respectively. Respondents that indicated their awareness of the proposed six-year single term (46% of the total) were asked the following question: To what extent do you agree or disagree with the proposed single term bill?The overall majority 54% (22% + 32%) disagree showing that they are not in support of the proposed bill while 35% (23%+ 12%) agree and are in support of the bill. Furthermore, 11% neither agree nor disagree to the proposed change in the length of rule of the President. From the geo-political standpoint, findings show the North-West zone accounted for the highest proportion of respondents (68%) who disagree to the proposed six-year single term bill, while the South-South zone (53%) has the highest proportion of respondents that agree to the bill. Furthermore, the North East has the highest proportion of respondents that are neutral (22%). Finally, to support the findings in the previous question respondents were asked: Do you think the current system that permits a 4-year tenure with a maximum of 2 terms for the President and other elected officials should be amended? The overall majority (53%) responded negatively indicating they do not think it should be amended thus showing their approval of the current 4-year tenure with a maximum of 2 terms. Furthermore, 47% of respondents say yes to the amendment of the current system. This further supports the finding in question 4 where the majority (54%) disagrees to the six-year single term. Analysis by geo-political zones reveals that the North-East zone had the highest proportion of respondents (64%) who do not favor an amendment of the length of tenure of Presidents. Moreover, the South-South zone accounted for the highest proportion of respondents (58%) that favor an amendment of the current system of 4-year with a maximum of 2 terms, this is followed by the South-West zone with 54%. In conclusion, the results from this current poll have revealed that the majority of Nigerians who are aware of the recently proposed 6-year single term bill are not in favor of this bill. Majority of this group also does not favor the amendment of the current system of 4-years and a maximum of two terms. The level of awareness of the proposed single term bill is not high as the slight majority is not aware of it. Furthermore findings revealed that although there is a two year interval between the current poll and the one conducted in 2011, the perception of Nigerians towards the length of tenure of the President has not changed significantly. The majority (63%) are still content with a 0-4 year term as an appropriate period for Presidents, Governor and their Deputies to make valuable impact on the nation. Survey Methods The opinion poll was conducted on June 10th to 13th 2013. It involved telephone interviews of a random nationwide sample. 1,006 randomly selected phone-owning Nigerians aged 18 years and above, representing the six geopolitical zones in the country, were interviewed. With a sample of this size, we can say with 95% confidence that the results obtained are statistically precise – within a range of plus or minus 3%. NOI Polls Limited is Nigeria’s leading opinion polling and research organisation, which works in technical partnership with the Gallup Organisation (USA), to conduct periodic opinion polls and studies on various socio-economic and political issues in Nigeria. More information is available at www.noi-polls.com Disclaimer This press release has been produced by NOI Polls Limited to provide information on all issues which form the subject matter of the document. Kindly note that while we are willing to share results from our polls with the general public, we only request that NOI Polls be acknowledged as author whenever and wherever our poll results are used, cited or published. NOI Polls hereby certifies that all the views expressed in this document accurately reflect its views of respondents surveyed for the poll, and background information is based on information from various sources that it believes are reliable; however, no representation is made that it is accurate or complete. Whilst reasonable care has been taken in preparing this document, no responsibility or liability is accepted for errors or fact or for any views expressed herein by NOI Polls for actions taken as a result of information provided in this report. Any ratings, forecasts, estimates, opinions or views herein constitute a judgment as at the date of this document. If the date of this document is not current, the views and content may not reflect NOI Polls’ current findings and/or thinking. Press Contact The Editor Email: editor@noi-polls.com

  • Countdown To 2015: Key Procedures Declared By Nigerians For Free And Fair 2015 Elections

    Abuja, Nigeria. April 22nd, 2014 – Latest Election poll results released by NOIPolls Limited revealed that even though majority (71%) of Nigerians think that INEC will conduct a free and fair election come 2015 with the main reasons for their optimism as “God will help them (INEC)” (22%) and “Credibility in past elections”(21%), Nigerians have also submitted that “INEC should do the right thing without bias” (26%), “Adequate security should be put in place” (22%) and “INEC should be absolutely independent” (14%) in order to ensure a free and fair election in 2015. These were the key findings from the second part of the NOIPolls Countdown to the 2015 Elections Series conducted in the week of April 14th 2014. As Nigerians prepare for the 2015 election, the active participation of all stakeholders in the process to ensure a free and fair election remains one of the most critical issues in the entire election process. In line with this, some INEC[1] Electoral Commissioners have assured Nigerians that necessary mechanisms are being put in place to ensure a free and fair election. [2] Furthermore, with the recent release of the elections timetable, Prof. Attahiru Jega, pointed out that INEC is mindful of its own operational effectiveness and best practices towards a free and fair election[3]. Still in the bid to ensure a free and fair election, during the opening ceremony for the third session of the Nigeria/US Bi-National Commission (BNC), the US Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs, Linda Thomas-Greenfield suggested that an election offences tribunal be established.[4] Against this background, NOIPolls conducted its recent Election poll to seek the views of Nigerians regarding the2015 general elections. This is the second in the series of the NOIPolls Countdown to 2015 Elections Polls for the year 2014. The polls are done bi-monthly. Respondents to the poll were asked three specific questions. Firstly, respondents were asked: Do you think INEC will conduct a free and fair election come 2015 general election? Findings reveal that that the majority (71%) of respondents think INEC will conduct a free and fair election in 2015 while 29% of the respondents responded negatively indicating they do not think INEC will succeed in this regard. Analysis based on geo-political zones reveals that the South-East zone (81%) has the highest proportion of Nigerians who think INEC will conduct a free and fair election in 2015. This is followed by the North-East zone with 74%. In addition, more female than male respondents (77% versus 66%) think INEC will conduct a free and fair election. [1] Independent National Electoral Commission [2] www.nanngronline.com [3] www.punchng.com [4] www.tribune.com.ng Respondents who think INEC will conduct a free and fair election (71% of the total) were further asked: If Yes, why do you think INEC will conduct a free and fair election come 2015 general election? This was an open ended question and the two main reasons mentioned stated were “I believe God will help them (INEC)”(22%) closely followed by “Credibility in the past elections” (21%). Other responses include “Good preparations on ground” (15%)and “(INEC) have improved in their performance” (11%). Analysis based on geo-political zones reveals that the North-East zone has the highest proportion of respondents who mentioned “I believe God will help them (INEC)” (50%) while the North-Central zone accounts for the largest proportion of respondents who stated “Credibility in the past elections”(31%). In addition, respondents who think INEC will not conduct a free and fair election (29% of the total) were also asked: If No, why do you think INEC will NOT conduct a free and fair election come 2015 general elections? This was also an open ended question and analysis shows that the majority believe INEC will not conduct a free and fair election because “Corruption is prevalent within the INEC” (32%). Other reasons include “Votes don’t count” (24%), “Past experiences showed that elections are not free and fair in Nigeria” (15%) and “They are not credible enough” (12%). Assessing the responses from the geo-political zones standpoint revealed that the North-West zone has the highest proportion of respondents (44%) who think “Corruption is prevalent within INEC” while North-Eastzone (46%) accounts for the highest proportion of respondents that say “Votes don’t count”. In addition, more males than females (35% compared to 26%) think “Corruption is prevalent within the INEC” while more females than males (37% compared to 17%) claim “Votes don’t count”. Finally, respondents were asked: In your opinion, what would you consider as the single most important procedure that should be put in place to ensure a free and fair election? In response to this open ended question, the slight majority (26%) mentioned “INEC should do the right thing without bias” closely followed by 22% suggested “Adequate security should be put in place” while 14% claim that “INEC should be absolutely independent”. A breakdown based on geo-political zones indicates that the North-West zone (37%) has the largest percentage of respondents who say “INEC should do the right thing without bias” while the South-Southzone (25%) accounts for the highest proportion of respondents who suggest “Adequate security should be put in place”. In addition, the South-East zone (21%) has the highest proportion of respondents that say “INEC should be absolutely independent”. In conclusion, results from this current Election poll revealed that 71% of the respondents think that INEC will conduct a free and fair election come 2015 general elections and the main reasons for their optimism are “God will help them (INEC)” (22%), and “Credibility in past elections” (21%). Furthermore, as the 2015 elections draws close, Nigerians have suggested that “INEC should do the right thing without bias” (26%) and “Adequate security should be put in place” (22%) in order to ensure a free and fair election. Survey Methods The opinion poll was conducted in April 15th to 17th 2014. It involved telephone interviews of a random nationwide sample. 1,000 randomly selected phone-owning Nigerians aged 18 years and above, representing the six geopolitical zones in the country, were interviewed. With a sample of this size, we can say with 95% confidence that the results obtained are statistically precise – within a range of plus or minus 3%. NOIPolls Limited, No.1 for country-specific polling services in West Africa, which works in technical partnership with the Gallup Organisation (USA), to conduct periodic opinion polls and studies on various socio-economic and political issues in Nigeria. More information is available at www.noi-polls.com Disclaimer This press release has been produced by NOIPolls Limited to provide information on all issues which form the subject matter of the document. Kindly note that while we are willing to share results from our polls with the general public, we only request that NOIPolls be acknowledged as author whenever and wherever our poll results are used, cited or published. NOIPolls hereby certifies that all the views expressed in this document accurately reflect its views of respondents surveyed for the poll, and background information is based on information from various sources that it believes are reliable; however, no representation is made that it is accurate or complete. Whilst reasonable care has been taken in preparing this document, no responsibility or liability is accepted for errors or fact or for any views expressed herein by NOIPolls for actions taken as a result of information provided in this report. Any ratings, forecasts, estimates, opinions or views herein constitute a judgment as at the date of this document. If the date of this document is not current, the views and content may not reflect NOIPolls’ current findings and/or thinking. Press Contact The Editor Email: editor@noi-polls.com

  • Dialogue as the Solution to the Jos Crisis…

    Abuja, Nigeria. March 2011. Over the past five years, there has been an escalation of sectarian violence in the North-Central city of Jos, which has claimed hundreds of innocent lives and destroyed property worth over N3 billion. In the month of January of 2011, there have already been over 200 victims, many of whom are women and children. This crisis raises the question – what definite steps should the government take to put an end to the crisis in Jos, Plateau State? In a recent survey conducted by NOI Polls, 22 percent of people interviewed supported dialogue between the warring factions as a means of finding lasting solution to the crisis. In addition, 21 percent believed that the persecution of those responsible for the crisis would bring an end to it, while 19 percent think the government should declare a state of emergency in the state. Interestingly, 16 percent of those polled do not know what will lead to a lasting solution, as the situation is very complicated. However, 6 percent want the government to create another state out of Plateau, while 5 percent believe the solution is in prayers. The result shows that respondents are split on the possible solutions to the Jos crisis. With such varied views, it is critical that the Government effectively engages the different groups in finding a solution to the crisis. Survey Methods These results are based on 1095 telephone interviews with randomly selected phone–owning Nigerians aged 18 years and older, across the six geographical regions of the country. The poll was conducted between February 23rd -25th, 2011. With a sample of this size, we can say with 95% confidence that the results have a statistical precision of plus or minus 4 percentage points of what they would have been if the entire population had been surveyed. This poll is part of the ongoing snap poll exercise conducted by NOI Polls to rapidly assess public sentiments following various social, political or economic events. NOI Polls – a Nigeria based opinion research organization works in technical partnership with Gallup Polls (USA), to conduct periodic opinion polls on various socioeconomic issues in Nigeria.

  • The NOIPolls Personal Well Being Index Stood At 64.97 Points in Quarter 3, 2016, While Consumer Conf

    Abuja, Nigeria. October 11th, 2016 –The Portfolio of Indices report released by NOIPolls Limited for Q3, 2016 has revealed that the NOIPolls Personal Well-Being Index (PWBI) increased by 1-point to stand at 64.9-points. The Personal Well-Being Index which assesses how Nigerians feel about their lives captures the people’s satisfaction with various aspects of life domains, and a general judgment of life quality. Among the indices that constitute the (PWBI) indicators, two indices were below average (Standard of Living: 49.06 percent and Personal Economy: 37.91 percent); with the Economic Index experiencing the highest decrease of 1-point in Q3, 2016. Comparatively, the NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) which aims to measure the level of optimism that Nigerian households’ have about the overall state of the economy and their personal financial situation increased by 1-point to stand at 56.79-points in Q3, 2016. The 2 sub-components which make up the CCI, the present situation index and the expected index both increased by 0.3-point and 0.5-point respectively. The level of confidence consumers have in the economy determines how they spend, which in turn impacts on the overal economy. The CCI therefore serves as a key economic indicator which reflects the overall shape of the economy from the consumers’ perspective. These are the key highlights from the Q3 2016 Portfolio of Indices Press Release. In February 2014, NOIPolls Limited introduced its portfolio of indices; the NOIPolls Personal Well-Being Index (PWBI), the NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) and the NOIPolls Eagle 30 Business Confidence Index (EBCI). The NOIPolls Personal Well-Being Index measures factors impacting on the lives of everyday Nigerians; thereby producing a complete view of the individual’s personal well-being. The NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index provides consumer assessments of the economic situation and their intentions and expectations for the future. The NOIPolls Eagle 30 Business Confidence Index measures business leaders’ perceptions and expectations about the Nigerian business environment using the top 30 companies in the country. Nigerian businesses, financial and government agencies largely depend on their perceptions and micro assessment of consumers’ expectation in making decisions. At best, they draw conclusion on the business environment based on information from their immediate surroundings while the minorities conduct surveys that are time and money consuming. However, the introduction of these indices provides indicators that will ensure stakeholders can detect and respond to changes in consumer behavior, the economy, and the business environment in Nigeria. This report presents the Q3, 2016 results for the NOIPolls Personal Well-Being Index (PWBI) and NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index (CCI). The NOIPolls Personal Well-Being Index (PWBI) The NOIPolls Personal Well-Being Index (PWBI) contains seven items of satisfaction, each one corresponding to the quality of a specific life domain. Having a good quality of life has always been desirable for Nigerians, and the concept of a good life and the ways of achieving it have become important over the years. In Q3 2016, the NOIPOllsPersonal Well-Being Index (PWBI) experienced an increase of 1-point to stand at 64.9-points. The Economic index experienced the greatest decline of 1-point in Q3, 2016. This is indicative that Nigerians are not satisfied with their present well-being. Furthermore, the sub-components of the indices that made up the PWBI shows that Nigerians are pleased in terms of Physical Health (76.8-points), Social Interaction (78.9-points), and Religion (88.9-points). Subsequently, the results from Achievement in Life (53.6-points) and Personal Security (69.6-points) reveals thatNigerians are somewhat neutral in terms of those indices, while Nigerians are not pleased with their Personal Economic Situation (37.9-points) and Standard of Living (49.1-points). This infers that the Economic Index has remained the lowest ranked indicator in Q1, Q2 and 3Q, 2016. The data trend also shows that the Economics index and Religion index were the only two indices that experienced a decrease of 1-point and 0.3-points respectively in Q3, 2016. In-depth analysis of the monthly findings indicated that the NOIPolls PWBI experienced the largest increase of 65.9-points in the month of July 2016 when compared to other months in 2016. This represents a 1.4-points increase when compared to a 9 months average of 64.5-points. The NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) The Consumer Confidence Index measures the level of confidence individual households have in the performance of the overall health of the economy. It is important because consumption spending drives a certain percentage of Nigeria’s GDP. Nonetheless, the NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index in Q3, 2016 increased by a slight 0.4-point to stand at 56.8-points. This slight leap suggests that consumers might have slightly increased their consumption in Q3, 2016, inferring that the satisfaction of consumers plays an important role in the nation’s economy in terms of their purchasing power. There are 2 Sub-components of the NOIPolls Consumer Confidence index; the Present Situation Index (PSI) and Expectation Index (EI). The PSI increased by 0.3-points to stand at 21.2-points which indicates a slight increase in consumption of goods and services by Nigerians. Investors are particularly advised to take advantage of an increase in consumer confidence as Nigerians at this point may purchase more goods and services. Equally, recent data trend shows that the Expectation Index (EI) slightly increased by 0.5-point to 83.5-points in Q3, 2016. A high expectations for the future indicate that consumers will be more willing to spend now or in coming months. The increase shown by these two independent variables indicated that the buying power of Nigerians slightly strengthened when compared to Q2, 2016. Trend analysis reveals that the overall CCI increased by 0.4-point in Q3, 2016 when compared to Q2, 2016. This slight increase in theconsumer confidence could infer that Nigerians are expected to increase their purchases of goods and services, hence in anticipation of this change, investors should take advantage of this opportunity. In conclusion, current result has revealed that the NOIPolls PWBI increased by 1-point to stand at 64.9-points whereas, the individual indicators that make-up the PWBI showed that the Economic indices had the highest decrease of 1-point in Q3, 2016. On the other hand, the NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index increased by 0.4-point. Finally, the two independent variables of the CCI; the Present Situation Index (PSI) and the Expectation Index (EI) both experienced an increase of 0.3-point and 0.5-point respectively in Q3, 2016. This is indicative that that consumer’s ability to spend have slightly increased despite the falling economy of the nation. Survey Methods The Personal Well-Being Index and Consumer Confidence Index Polls were conducted in Q3, 2016. The PWBI involved telephone interviews of a random nationwide sample. 3,000 randomly selected phone-owning Nigerians aged 18 years and above, representing the six geopolitical zones in the country, were interviewed. With a sample of this size, we can say with 95% confidence that the results obtained are statistically precise – within a range of plus or minus 3%. In addition the CCI involved telephone interviews of a random nationwide sample. 3,000 randomly selected phone-owning Nigerians aged 18 years and above, representing the six geopolitical zones in the country, were interviewed. With a sample of this size, we can say with 95% confidence that the results obtained are statistically precise – within a range of plus or minus 2%. NOIPolls Limited, No1 for country specific polling services in West Africa, works in technical partnership with the Gallup Organisation (USA). We conduct periodic opinion polls and studies on various socio-economic and political issues in Nigeria. More information is available at www.noi-polls.com Disclaimer This press release has been produced by NOIPolls Limited to provide information on all issues which form the subject matter of the document. Kindly note that while we are willing to share results from our polls with the general public, we only request that NOIPolls be acknowledged as author whenever and wherever our poll results are used, cited or published. NOIPolls hereby certifies that all the views expressed in this document accurately reflect its views of respondents surveyed for the poll, and background information is based on information from various sources that it believes are reliable; however, no representation is made that it is accurate or complete. Whilst reasonable care has been taken in preparing this document, no responsibility or liability is accepted for errors or fact or for any views expressed herein by NOIPolls for actions taken as a result of information provided in this report. Any ratings, forecasts, estimates, opinions or views herein constitute a judgment as at the date of this document. If the date of this document is not current, the views and content may not reflect NOIPolls’ current findings and/or thinking. Press Contact The Editor Email: editor@noi-polls.com

  • The NOIPolls Personal Well-Being Index Increased Marginally by 0.9 Points in Quarter 1, 2017

    Abuja, Nigeria. April 4th, 2017 – The NOIPolls quarterly Portfolio of Indices assesses the feelings of Nigerians regarding their lives using 7 indicators (Religion, Health, Social Interaction, Achievement in Life, Personal Security, Economic Situation and Standard of Living. The report for Q1, 2017 has revealed a 0.9-point increase in the PWBI to stand at 65.3-points. This indicates a perceived increase in the level satisfaction of Nigerians with their well-being. A detailed analysis of the individual indicators that make-up the PWBI revealed that Nigerians are satisfied with their level of Social Interaction in the society (79.1-points), while some other proportion of the citizens expressed dissatisfaction with their economic situation (38.9-points) even though this index experienced a slight increase of 1.3-point to stand at 38.9-point. This increase in the PWBI in Q1, 2017 may be attributed to the recent foreign exchange intervention by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), easing the difficulties encountered by Nigerians in obtaining funds for foreign exchange transactions[1]. This intervention by the CBN in the Foreign Exchange market may, in the short run, eventually bring businesses back to life and subsequently make life easier for the populace since it translates to more supply of the dollar into the market thereby dousing the scarcity. There is no doubt, as seen in the results of the PWBI, that these latest Foreign Exchange policy actions of the Central Bank of Nigeria has availed the market some liquidity and has slightly alleviated the pains of forex users. These are the key highlights from the Q1, 2017 Portfolio of Indices Press Release. In February 2014, NOIPolls Limited introduced its portfolio of indices; the NOIPolls Personal Well-Being Index (PWBI), the NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) and the NOIPolls Eagle 30 Business Confidence Index (EBCI). The NOIPolls Personal Well-Being Index measures factors impacting on the lives of everyday Nigerians; thereby producing a complete view of the individual’s personal well-being. The NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index provides consumer assessments of the economic situation and their intentions and expectations for the future. The NOIPolls Eagle 30 Business Confidence Index measures business leaders’ perceptions and expectations about the Nigerian business environment using the top 30 companies in the country. Nigerian businesses, financial and government agencies largely depend on the perceptions and micro assessment of consumers’ expectation in making decisions. At best, they draw conclusions on the business environment based on information from their immediate surroundings while the minorities conduct surveys that are time and money consuming. However, the introduction of these indices provides indicators that will ensure stakeholders can detect and respond to changes in consumer behavior, the economy, and the business environment in Nigeria. This report presents the Q1, 2017 results for the NOIPolls Personal Well Being Index (PWBI). THE NOIPOLLS PERSONAL WELL-BEING INDEX (PWBI) For Q1 2017, the NOIPolls Personal Well-Being Index (which contains seven items of satisfaction each one specific to the different aspects of life), experienced a slight increase of 0.9-point to stand at 65.3-points from 64.4-points in Q4 2016. This rise represents a slight increase in the level of satisfaction of Nigerians on their Personal Well-Being in the current quarter. Though 6 out of the 7 indicators experienced an increase in Q1, 2017, the Health index had the highest increase of 1.7-point whereas the Social Interaction index is the only indicator that experienced a decline of 0.4-point in Q1, 2017. Additionally, the sub-components of the indices that make up the PWBI show that Nigerians are pleased in terms of their personal Religion (90.3-points), Social Interaction (79.1-points) and personal Health (78.1-points). Consequently, the results from Personal Security (68.3-points), Achievement in Life (53.7-points) and Standard of Living (50.5-points) reveals that Nigerians are somewhat neutral in terms of those indices, while the figure for Economic Situation (38.9 points) depicts a continuous dissatisfaction of Nigerians with their economic situation. This index has consistently been the lowest rated indicator since 2016. Personal Standard of Living Index – 50.5 The Personal Standard of Living Index being experienced a slight increase of 0.9-point in Q1, 2017 from 49.6-points in Q4, 2016 to stand at 50.5-points. This indicates a slight increase in the satisfaction of Nigerians with their current standard of living. Personal Health index – 78.1 This index also experienced a slight increase of 1.7 points to stand at 78.1. This shows that Nigerians are highly satisfied with their Personal Health in Q1 2017 Personal Achievement Index – 53.7 Although this index went up slightly from the previous quarter’s 53.3 points to 53.7 by 0.4 points in this quarter, the results show that Nigerians are neutral (neither satisfied nor dissatisfied with their personal achievement). Personal Security Index – 68.3 Even with an increase of 0.3-point from 68-points in Q4, 2016 to 68.3-point in Q1, 2017, the Personal Security Index result reveals that Nigerians are only somewhat satisfied with their personal security. Social Interaction Index – 79.1 Despite experiencing a decrease of 0.4-point from Q4, 2016’s 79.5 to stand at 79.1-points in Q1, 2017, this index still remains very high. This implies that Nigerians are quite satisfied with their social interactions despite their economic situation. Personal Religion Index – 90.3 The Personal Religion Index has consistently been the highest ranked index on the PWBI since 2016 and it currently stands at 90.3-points in Q1, 2017. This has reveals that Nigerians are very satisfied with their religious beliefs. Economic Index – 38.9 The Economic Index for Q1, 2017 experienced a slight increase of 1.3-point to stand at 38.9-points. Despite this slight increase, this figure further depicts a complete dissatisfaction in Nigerians of their economic situation. This index has been the lowest ranked since 2016. TREND ANALYSIS Trend analysis revealed that all the indicators that constitute the PWBI experienced an increase in Q1, 2017 except the Social Interaction index which slightly decreased by 0.4-point. The data trend also indicated Religion as the index which experienced the greatest increase with 1.7-point in Q1, 2017. Furthermore, a comparison of the quarter-on-quarter analysis results between Q1, 2016 and Q1, 2017 showed that the NOIPolls PWBI was highest in Q1, 2017 at 65.3-points as opposed to the 64.5 points of Q1, 2016. In conclusion, current findings have shown that the NOIPolls PWBI increased by 0.9-point to stand at 65.3-points in Q1, 2017. The individual indicators that make-up the PWBI revealed an increase in all the indicators except the Social Interaction index which slightly declined by 0.4-point. Furthermore, the PWBI result may imply that Nigerians are gradually getting satisfied with their individual well-being except for the discouragement they have, as seen in their economic index. This means that it has become imperative for the government to ramp up efforts aimed at economic growth and stability, while also working on factors that improve the ease of conducting business in Nigeria as outlined by the Presidential Enabling Business Environment Council (PEBEC) reforms’ feedback[2] to encourage an influx of foreign direct investment (FDI). Survey Methods The Personal Well Being Index Poll was conducted in Quarter 1, 2017. The PWBI involved telephone interviews of a random nationwide sample. 3,000 randomly selected phone-owning Nigerians aged 18 years and above, representing the six geopolitical zones in the country, were interviewed. With a sample of this size, we can say with 95% confidence that the results obtained are statistically precise – within a range of plus or minus 3%. NOIPolls Limited, No1 for country specific polling services in West Africa. We conduct periodic opinion polls and studies on various socio-economic and political issues in Nigeria. More information is available at www.noi-polls.com Disclaimer This press release has been produced by NOIPolls Limited to provide information on all issues which form the subject matter of the document. Kindly note that while we are willing to share results from our polls with the general public, we only request that NOIPolls be acknowledged as author whenever and wherever our poll results are used, cited or published. NOIPolls hereby certifies that all the views expressed in this document accurately reflect its views of respondents surveyed for the poll, and background information is based on information from various sources that it believes are reliable; however, no representation is made that it is accurate or complete. Whilst reasonable care has been taken in preparing this document, no responsibility or liability is accepted for errors or fact or for any views expressed herein by NOIPolls for actions taken as a result of information provided in this report. Any ratings, forecasts, estimates, opinions or views herein constitute a judgment as at the date of this document. If the date of this document is not current, the views and content may not reflect NOIPolls’ current findings and/or thinking. Press Contact The Editor Email: editor@noi-polls.com [1] https://www.cbn.gov.ng/out/2017/ccd/press%20release-new%20fx%20market%20rules.pdf [1] http://dailypost.ng/2017/02/21/pebec-approves-60-day-national-action-plan-ease-business-nigeria/

  • Questioning the $1-a-Day Poverty Threshold: Myth or Reality?

    Abuja, Nigeria. April 24, 2013. Executive Summary – The dollar-a-day poverty threshold is considered to be one of the globally recognised measures of poverty. According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) about 61 percent of Nigerians live on less than $1 a day. Over the years, this figure has elicited comments and debates from scholars and analysts calling for a review of this threshold to reflect a more realistic poverty line. In order to contribute to the poverty discourse, NOI Polls has conducted its recent polls to estimate what Nigerians spend daily on feeding. Key findings from the poll reveal that, on the assumption that people eat at least once a day, only about 2 in 10 Nigerians (19%) were found spending below N160 (US$1) for their meals in a day, with 80% spending above the threshold. Furthermore, on the assumption that people eat at least three times a day, the results indicate that less than 1% of Nigerians were found to spend below N160 daily. In summary, given that these current figures only focus on daily food estimates, and not shelter, clothing or transportation, we therefore submit that a lot more Nigerians live above US$1; and call for further investigation and, perhaps, a review of the dollar-a-day poverty threshold. Background – In February 2012, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released its report titled “Nigeria Poverty Profile 2010”, which stated that about 61.2 percent of the population (more than 100 million Nigerians) were living on less than $1 a day at the end of 2010[1]. This figure represents almost a 10 percent increase from 51.6% that were living on less than US$1 in 2004. This statistic suggests that the majority of Nigerians live in poverty and, as a result, can barely afford the basic necessities of life such as food, shelter and clothing. Although there are several approaches to measuring poverty such as the relative, absolute and subjective poverty measures, as well as the income inequality and consumption expenditure measures, the dollar-a-day poverty threshold has been considered one of the globally recognised measures for poverty. The dollar-a-day is a common international poverty line[2] developed by economists in the late 1980s. A group of economists at the World Bank in Washington DC noticed that a number of developing countries drew their poverty lines at an income of about $370 a year which reflected the basic amount that a person needed to live. Each country had a different sense of what the essentials were, but the figure of roughly $370 was common to all, so the World Bank team proposed it as a global poverty line. If you divide that $370 by 365 days, you get just over $1. So the catchy “$1-a-day” concept was born. However, over the years, the dollar-a-day poverty threshold has been criticised[3] both locally and internationally, with scholars, statisticians and development agencies reconsidering more realistic poverty measures to align with changing economic indices. Away from the US$1-a-day, the World Bank now adopts a standard measure of US$1.25 per day. Similarly, in 2012 the African Development Bank (AfDB) adopted $2 per day as the poverty line for the continent, and found 34 percent of the population above it. Closer home, the $1-a-day measure continues to be questioned as analysts argue that the proponents of the dollar-a-day statistic did not actually convert $1 to naira to determine what could be bought by an average Nigerian. They calculated a specially-adjusted dollar using the Purchasing Power Parity. This technique asks how much money would be needed to purchase the same goods and services in two countries, and uses that to calculate an exchange rate. A detailed analysis provided by Enhancing Financial Innovation and Access (EFInA), a donor-funded organisation, estimates Nigeria’s adult population at 87.9 million. It further divided this total between four million adults earning above N70,000 ($440) monthly, 38 million adults earning between N18,000 and N70,000, and the balance 45.9 million adults (52 percent) earning below the national minimum wage of N18,000. There remains an on-going debate in Nigeria regarding the reality of the dollar-a-day statistic. Opinion leaders have questioned the finding by NBS that the majority of Nigerians (61%) live below the poverty line. Specifically, analysts have been asking: Is it true that most Nigerians live on approximately N160 (US$1) a day, given inflationary trends and the rising cost of basic essentials such as food, shelter, clothing and even transport. Against this background, NOI Polls conducted this latest poll to examine the assertion that most Nigerians live on less than $1 a day. An additional objective of this poll is to validate the suitability of the dollar-a-day statistic as a measure of poverty in Nigeria. It is expected that the results and findings from this poll will provide some evidence to contribute to the on-going poverty debate and generate some useful data to support policymakers in the area of poverty alleviation. We also hope that it serves as a platform for future scholars and analysts researching into poverty in Nigeria. Methodology – In conducting this study, NOI Polls adopted an expenditure approach to estimating the cost of one of the basic necessities of life. Food, clothing and shelter are considered basic necessities, and we decided to estimate the daily cost of food. The decision to poll on food was made because food remains the key sustenance to life. Also, we believe every Nigerian eats food to survive and will be able to easily relate with “food”, and unlike shelter and clothing that may elicit relative responses. We have also made the assumption that every Nigerian eats some form of food at least once daily, and have compared this with the assumption that Nigerians eat three times daily. It is worth noting that while this approach “to estimate the daily cost of feeding” may appear simplistic, its robustness is grounded in the scientific process of selecting respondents. Moreover a poll for the general public requires specific skills to design questions that are simple and easy to understand by the “average Nigerian”. In furtherance, the poll involved telephone interviews of a random nationwide sample and was conducted from March 18th to 19th 2013. A total of 1,002 randomly selected phone-owning Nigerians, aged 18 years and above, and representing the six geopolitical zones in the country, were interviewed. With a sample of this size, we can say with 95% confidence that the results obtained are statistically precise – within a range of plus or minus 4%. The questionnaire was designed in English and the poll was conducted in English, Hausa, Yoruba, Ibo, and Pidgin, to ensure coverage of relevant geographical and demographic groups. NOI Polls acknowledges that this report may be limited by its sampling restriction to only “mobile phone-owning Nigerians”. However, previous survey results by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) have suggested that about 63.9% of Nigerians own mobile phones (NBS, 2012), and more recent figures from the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) have stated that Nigeria has 143,327,286 active GSM lines (NCC, 2013). Therefore, our decision to adopt telephone interviews, and the validity of our polling approach, are hereby justified. Results & Findings – Respondents to the poll were asked people three specific questions. The first question sought to establish what Nigerians eat for breakfast, lunch and dinner. Respondents were also asked: What type of food do you typically consume for (1) Breakfast (2) Lunch and (3) Dinner? Overall, the majority of respondents (42%) eat Bread for Breakfast, followed by those who eat Rice, Spaghetti or Noodles (22%). Ball foods (such as Eba, Fufu, Semovita and Amala) were mainly consumed for Lunch (50%) and Dinner (48%). Similarly, the Rice, Spaghetti and Noodles food category was the second most popular option for both Lunch (35%) and Dinner (34%). Next, in order to ascertain where Nigerians eat their meals, respondents were asked: Where do you mostly eat your for (1) Breakfast (2) Lunch and (3) Dinner? The results show that for the majority of respondents (76%) Breakfast is mainly either eaten at home or taken from home to be consumed elsewhere. This also applies to Lunch (36%) though the proportion refers more to those who take food from home to consume at work or elsewhere. Other popular places where Nigerians eat Lunch are Canteens (25%), Restaurants/Eatery (21%) and Bukas (17%) (i.e. local food joints). Once again, the results show that majority of Nigerians (87%) eat Dinner at their homes. Finally, in order to estimate how much Nigerians spend on their daily meals, respondents were asked the most critical question to the study: Personally, how much do you spend daily on (1) Breakfast (2) Lunch and (3) Dinner? Respondents were encouraged to estimate for only themselves even when they eat communally. The results show that for breakfast the slight majority (29%) spend between N160 to N239 (an average of N 200), closely followed by 27% that spend between N80 to N159 (an average of N 120). Also, most Nigerians spend more on Lunch and Dinner, than on their breakfast. The majority spend between N240 andN319 (an average of N 280); Lunch (33%) and Dinner (39%). Taking a look at the figures for each meal independently, the results show that, for Breakfast, Lunch and Dinner only 30%, 14% and 13% of respondents, respectively, feed on less than US$1. Therefore, based on our initial assumption that people eat at least once a day, an average of the three percentages reveal that only about 19% of Nigerians live on less than US$1 a day. See Table below. Meal Less than N160 (US$1) Above N160 (US$1) Breakfast 30% (3% + 27%) 69% (29% + 23% + 2% + 4% + 5% + 1% + 1% + 4%) Lunch 14% (2% + 12%) 86% (20% + 33% + 4% + 9% + 11% + 1% + 2% + 1% + 5%) Dinner 13% (1% + 12%) 85% (17% + 39% + 3% + 10% + 8% + 1% + 2% + 5%) Average 19% 80% However, when we conduct further analysis based on the assumption that people eat at least three times a day, the results present more interesting findings. Linking this to the dollar-a-day measure, the amount spent on each meal was totalled and further analysed to determine the total amount spent daily on feeding. Overall, the results show that the majority (24%) of respondents spend between N634 to N791 (an average of N713 on feeding daily). Again, this clearly shows that almost all of the respondents that participated in the poll spend more than N160 (the equivalent of US$1) on their feeding each day. Surprisingly, the national average of N713 spent on food each day did not present any significant difference on whether respondents live in rural or urban areas. Although, as expected more people living in rural areas spend less on their daily feeding; and more people in urban areas spend more than the national average on their food. Further analysis across geo-political zones shows that the majority of respondents in the North-East spend below the nationwide average of N713 (an average of N555). Also, the majority of people living in Southern Nigeria (South-South, South-East and South-West) spend more than the national average of N713. In particular, the South-South has the highest proportion of people (17%) who spend the most on their daily feeding (above N1898). Even though it is a paltry 2%, the North-West has the highest number of people that spend below the $1 mark on their feeding. Nationwide, less than 1% of the respondents actually spend below the $1 mark on their feeding daily. Considering that the costs of shelter, clothing and transport have not been added to this analysis it becomes clear the assertion that 61% of Nigerians live on less than $1 a day becomes questionable. In conclusion, results indicate that, on the assumption that Nigerians eat at least once a day, only about 2 in 10 Nigerians (19%) live on less than a dollar-a-day; while about 80% live above the poverty threshold. Furthermore, on the assumption that Nigerians eat at least three times a day, the results indicate that the majority of Nigerians spend an average of N713 ($4.5) on their feeding each day; and less than 1% of Nigerians actually live on less than US$1 a day. Finally, bearing in mind that the costs of shelter, clothing and transportation have not been added to these analyses, it becomes clear that the assertion that 61% of Nigerians live on less than US$1 a day is questionable, and calls for further investigation and review of the dollar-a-day poverty threshold. [1] Nigeria Poverty Profile 2010 [2] Sachs, Jeffrey D. The End of Poverty 2005 [3] Dollar benchmark: The rise of the $1-a-day statistic. BBC News About Us NOI Polls Limited is Nigeria’s leading opinion polling and research organisation, which works in technical partnership with the Gallup Organisation (USA), to conduct periodic opinion polls and studies on various socio-economic and political issues in Nigeria. More information is available at www.noi-polls.com Disclaimer This press release has been produced by NOI Polls Limited to provide information on all issues which form the subject matter of the document. Kindly note that while we are willing to share results from our polls with the general public, we only request that NOI Polls be acknowledged as author whenever our poll results are used, cited or published. NOI Polls hereby certifies that all the views expressed in this document accurately reflect its views of respondents surveyed for the poll, and background information is based on information from various sources that it believes are reliable; however, no representation is made that it is accurate or complete. Whilst reasonable care has been taken in preparing this document, no responsibility or liability is accepted for errors or fact or for any views expressed herein by NOI Polls for actions taken as a result of information provided in this report. Any ratings, forecasts, estimates, opinions or views herein constitute a judgment as at the date of this document. If the date of this document is not current, the views and content may not reflect NOI Polls’ current findings and/or thinking. Press Contact The Editor Email: editor@noi-polls.com

  • Quarter 2, 2017; The NOIPolls Personal Well-Being Index at 65.4 Points

    Abuja, Nigeria. July 18th, 2017 – The Portfolio of Indices report released by NOIPolls Limited for Q2, 2017 has revealed that the NOIPolls Personal Well-Being Index (PWBI) which remained almost the same as in Q1 stood at 65.4-points; with a slight increase by 0.1-point from Q1 2017. This figure infers that Nigerians are somewhat satisfied with their well-being. An in-depth analysis of the seven components that make up the PWBI Index showed that in Q2, only four indices (standard of living, personal security, religion and economic situation) experienced an increase while the remaining indicators experienced a decrease when compared to results obtained in Q1, 2017. These are the key highlights fromthe Q2, 2017 Portfolio of Indices Press Release. In February 2014, NOIPolls Limited introduced its portfolio of indices; the NOIPolls Personal Well-Being Index (PWBI), the NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) and the NOIPolls Eagle 30 Business Confidence Index (EBCI). The NOIPolls Personal Well-Being Index measures factors impacting on the lives of everyday Nigerians; thereby producing a complete view of the individual’s personal well-being. The NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index provides consumer assessments of the economic situation and their intentions and expectations for the future. The NOIPolls Eagle 30 Business Confidence Index measures business leaders’ perceptions and expectations about the Nigerian business environment using the top 30 companies in the country. Nigerian businesses, financial and government agencies largely depend on the perceptions and micro assessment of consumers’ expectation in making decisions. At best, they draw conclusions on the business environment based on information from their immediate surroundings while the minorities conduct surveys that are time and money consuming. However, the introduction of these indices provides indicators that will ensure stakeholders can detect and respond to changes in consumer behaviour, the economy, and the business environment in Nigeria. This report presents the Q2, 2017 results for the NOIPolls Personal Well Being Index (PWBI). THE NOIPOLLS PERSONAL WELL-BEING INDEX (PWBI) The NOIPolls Personal Well-Being Index, for Q2, 2017 stood at 65.4-points from 65.3-points in Q1, 2017, showing a negligible increase of 0.1-point. The Personal Well-Being Index is a combination of the level of satisfaction of Nigerians in seven aspects of life. Analysis of the level of satisfaction of Nigerians in these 7 indicators showed that Nigerians are mostly satisfied with their personal Religion (90.4-points), Social Interaction (78.5-points) and personal Health (77.5-points). On the other hand, Nigerians maintained a neutral stance in their Personal Security (69.1-points), Achievement in Life (52.8-points) and Standard of Living (51.3-points). The Economic Situation index (40.5-points) represents the lowest of all the indices of the PWBI for Q2, 2017 as it has always been, although it experienced an increase of 1.6-points from Q1 2017. This implies a slight improvement in the personal economic situation of Nigerians although they are generally not satisfied with this aspect of their lives. Also it is worthy to note that 4 out of the 7 indicators experienced an increase in Q2, 2017; the Economic index had the highest increase of 1.6-point while the Achievements in life index had the highest decline of 0.9-point in the same quarter. Personal Standard of Living Index – 51.3 The Personal Standard of Living Index experienced a slight increase of 0.8-point in Q2, 2017 from 50.5-points in Q1, 2017 to stand at 51.3-points. This indicates a marginal increase in the satisfaction of Nigerians with their current standard of living. Personal Health index – 77.5 Although the index experienced a slight decrease of 0.6-point to stand at 77.5-points, it still depicts that Nigerians are satisfied with their Personal Health in Q2 2017. Personal Achievement Index – 52.8 This index revealed that Nigerians are neutral in terms of their personal achievement as it experienced a decline of 0.9-points (representing the highest decline in Q2, 2017). It went down from 53.7-points in Q1, 2017 to 52.8-points in Q2, 2017. Personal Security Index – 69.1 The Q2, 2017 Personal Security Index experienced an increase by 0.8-point to stand at 69.1-points in Q2, 2017. This indicates that Nigerians are somewhat satisfied with their personal security. Personal Social Interaction Index – 78.5 This index experienced a little decrease of 0.6-point from the Q1, 2017 to stand at 78.5-points in Q2, 2017; denoting that Nigerians are still very much satisfied with their social interaction regardless of the challenges in the country. Personal Religion Index – 90.4 Analysis has always shown that Nigerians are contented with their religious belief because the Personal Religion Index has constantly been the highest index in the PWBI results. In Q2, 2017, it remained almost the same with Q1, with a slight 0.1-point increase to stand at 90.4-points from 90.3-points obtained in the previous quarter. Personal Economic Index – 40.5 The Personal Economic Index for Q2, 2017 experienced an increase of 1.6-points to stand at 40.5-points. This slight increase infers that Nigerians perceived that their economic situation is a little better than what it used to be in Q1, 2017. Although, when this index is compared to the overall sub-components that made up the PWBI, it is the lowest and could mean that there is a low level of satisfaction in the personal economic situation of the Nigerian populace. TREND ANALYSIS Trend analysis revealed that four indicators that constitute the PWBI experienced an increase in Q2, 2017 while the remaining three experienced a decline. The data trend also indicated Personal Economic situation as the index which experienced the greatest increase with 1.6-points in Q2, 2017. Additionally, a comparison of the quarter-on-quarter analysis results between Q1, 2017 and Q2, 2017 showed that the NOIPolls PWBI increased to 65.4-points in Q2, 2017 from 65.3 points obtained in Q1, 2017 depicting a 0.1-point difference. An in-depth analysis of the monthly findings in Q2, 2017 revealed that the NOIPolls PWBI was highest in the month of May at 65.6-points and lowest in the month of April at 64.6-points, bringing the average mean for the PWBI in Q2, 2017 to 65.2-points. In conclusion, current findings have shown that the NOIPolls PWBI increased by 0.1-point to stand at 65.4-points in Q2, 2017. Four of the individual indicators that make-up the PWBI (Economic index, Religion index, Personal security index and the Standard of living index) experienced an increase; while the remaining three (Social interaction index, Achievements in life index and Personal Health index) experienced a decline. Additionally, the difference in the PWBI results from Q1, 2017 (65.3-points) is insignificant when compared to the results obtained in Q2, 2017 (65.4-points); implying that Nigerians are still somewhat satisfied with their personal well-being in Q2 2017. But the constant low points of the Economic situation index calls for the current administration to harness all the possible means that would proffer better living condition for the citizens of Nigeria. Survey Methods The Personal Well Being Index Poll was conducted in Quarter 2, 2017. The PWBI involved telephone interviews of a random nationwide sample. 3,000 randomly selected phone-owning Nigerians aged 18 years and above, representing the six geopolitical zones in the country, were interviewed. With a sample of this size, we can say with 95% confidence that the results obtained are statistically precise – within a range of plus or minus 3%. NOIPolls Limited, No1 for country specific polling services in West Africa. We conduct periodic opinion polls and studies on various socio-economic and political issues in Nigeria. More information is available at www.noi-polls.com ,you can also download our mobile app NOIPolls on your smartphone. Disclaimer This press release has been produced by NOIPolls Limited to provide information on all issues which form the subject matter of the document. Kindly note that while we are willing to share results from our polls with the general public, we only request that NOIPolls be acknowledged as author whenever and wherever our poll results are used, cited or published. NOIPolls hereby certifies that all the views expressed in this document accurately reflect its views of respondents surveyed for the poll, and background information is based on information from various sources that it believes are reliable; however, no representation is made that it is accurate or complete. Whilst reasonable care has been taken in preparing this document, no responsibility or liability is accepted for errors or fact or for any views expressed herein by NOIPolls for actions taken as a result of information provided in this report. Any ratings, forecasts, estimates, opinions or views herein constitute a judgment as at the date of this document. If the date of this document is not current, the views and content may not reflect NOIPolls’ current findings and/or thinking. Press Contact The Editor Email: editor@noi-polls.com

  • Security and Job Creation; Top Key Issues Nigerians Want the President to Focus On In 2015

    Abuja, Nigeria. January 13th, 2015 The Annual New Year Special Edition Snap Poll conducted by NOIPolls revealed that most Nigerians (81%) indicated they experienced enjoyable holidays over Christmas and New Year and this proportion has increased over the past 3 years. In addition, most Nigerians stayed back at their respective places of residence to enjoy the Christmas and New Year holidays instead of travelling. However, the reverse was the case for the larger proportion of the South-East residents who utilized the holidays to travel to various locations (69%). This probably stimulated a more positive experience as 61% of South East residents confirmed their holiday was very enjoyable. Given the general increase in prices of goods and services which mostly characterizes festive periods in Nigeria, the slight majority (52%) of Nigerians who travelled for the festive holidays reported a rise in the cost of transportation; although this was a slight decline in the proportion of Nigerians who were affected by this from the previous year 2014. Also the larger proportion of Nigerians (69%) who travelled reported an improvement in the roads when asked to evaluate their experiences with the Nigerian roads during their journey; this however indicates a 6-point decline from 2014. In an assessment of the state of security across the country during the holidays, most Nigerians reported the environment where they spent the holidays as ‘peaceful and secure’, although a considerable proportion of the North-East residents considered their environment ‘peaceful but not secure’ and ‘tense and insecure’ during the holiday. Finally, in areas for focus by the President in 2015, most Nigerians would like the President to focus on‘Security’ especially in the North East region, followed by ‘Job Creation’ and ‘Electricity’. While Job Creation was top priority to Nigerians in 2013 and 2014, Security has become paramount for Nigerians given its current state and ill effect in the nation. Survey Background and Objectives The New Year celebration in Nigeria is one of the most important and prominently celebrated events in the country often characterized by diverse activities such as the Lagos State Countdown which ushered in the New Year. One would clearly draw a precise picture of the rich heritage, culture, custom and tradition of the country during the time of New Year.[1][1] While Nigerians ushered in 2015 with great excitement and optimism as well as resolutions to be better individuals, great expectations also lies in the government to focus on key areas to create desired socio-economic changes that would stimulate development of the nation as well as affect the lives of the citizens positively while making the year a remarkable one. One of which would generally be in the aspect of security given its current state in the country especially in the Northeast zone.[2][2] Against this background, NOIPolls conducted its Annual New Year Special Edition Snap Poll to explore the experiences of Nigerians during the Christmas and New Year holidays, as well as gauge their expectations for 2015. This is the third in the series of New Year polls following those conducted in 2013 and 2014. Survey Methodology The New Year opinion poll involving telephone interviews of a random nationwide sample was conducted in the week of January 6th 2015. Proportionate random sampling was used to select 1,000 phone-owning Nigerians aged 18 years and above, representing the six geopolitical zones in the country. With a sample of this size, we can say with 95% confidence that the results obtained are statistically precise – within a range of plus or minus 3%. The interviews were conducted in English, Pidgin English, Hausa, Igbo and Yoruba in order to reduce non-response bias in the sample. Survey Results Respondents to the poll were asked six specific questions and this section presents detailed survey findings from these questions. Festive Season Experience With the aim of exploring the experiences of Nigerians during the festive season, respondents were asked: In general, how would you describe your Christmas and New Year holiday? Findings revealed the majority of Nigerians 81% (43%+38%) enjoyed the Christmas and New Year holiday describing it as either very enjoyable or enjoyable. This cuts across all regions and age-groups as shown in figure 1 with the South-East zone having the largest proportion of residents that confirmed their holiday was very enjoyable (61%). In addition, 12% of Nigerians reported their holiday was okay and 7% (6%+1%) indicated it was not enjoyable with the South-South accounting for the largest proportion of respondents in this category (10%). Trend analysis reveals that the proportion of Nigerians that experienced an enjoyable Christmas and New Year holiday has increased steadily over the 3 year period to 81% in 2015 compared to 79% in 2014 and 62% in2013. Travelling During the Christmas and New Year Holidays Next, respondents were asked: Did you travel for the Christmas and New Year holidays? Responses show that most Nigerians did not travel during the holidays (64%) while 36% confirmed they traveled to various locations during the festive holidays which witnessed a high proportion of residents from the South –East zone (69%) confirming they had travelled. Furthermore, there was a 7-point increase in the proportion of Nigerians who travelled during the festive holidays (36%) as opposed to 29% who had indicated they had plans to travel as revealed in the NOIPolls Annual Special End of Year poll.[1][3] Similarly, a 3-year trend revealed a 6-point drop in the proportion of Nigerians that travelled during the 2015festive season compared with the previous year 2014. Transportation Cost during the Holidays Festive periods in Nigeria are generally characterized by increases in the prices of goods and services and to assess if this was the case for the cost of transportation, respondents who travelled during the festive holidays(36% of the total) were asked: Did you experience any increase in the cost of transportation during the holidays? Findings revealed that slightly more than half of Nigerians (52%) who traveled during the festive holidays experienced an increase in the cost of transportation. Again this was mostly experienced by residents of the South-East region as a higher proportion of Nigerians in this region travelled during the holidays. Further analysis by age revealed that respondents aged 18-29 years reported an increase in the cost of transportation during the festive holidays more than any other age-group. Trend analysis revealed a slight 3-point decline in the proportion of Nigerians who reported they experienced an increase in the cost of transportation during the 2014/2015 festive holidays compared with the previous year. State Of Nigerian Roads With the aim of evaluating the current state of Nigerian roads, respondents who travelled (36% of the total) were further asked: Compared to previous years, how would you describe the state of Nigerian roads while travelling for the holiday? Survey findings revealed that the larger share of Nigerians that travelled (40%) indicated that the state of Nigerian roads has ‘Improved a little’ compared to previous years. On the other hand, 29% of Nigerians indicated that the roads has ‘improved very much’ while 15% of Nigerians claimed that ‘There’s no difference at all’ on the roads. Analyzing by age-group, the majority of Nigerians who are of the opinion that Nigerian roads ‘has improved a little’ were within the age bracket 61 years and above. Also, respondents that are of the opinion the roads have improved very much were mostly within the ages 30-45 years. Also, the majority of Nigerians that consider the roads as ‘very bad’ or ‘no difference at all’ in its state compared to the preceding years are within the age bracket 18-21 years and 46-60 years respectively. Meanwhile, analyzing by geo-political zone, South-West has the highest proportion of Nigerians who consider the roads to have improved very much. While North-west has the largest percentage of Nigerians that believe the Nigerian road has remained bad since the previous years. Trend analysis on the state of Nigerian roads reveals the proportion of Nigerians who indicated the roads to have improved very much increased by 16-points in 2014 and declined by 2-points in 2015. Similarly, this applies to the proportion of Nigerians who indicated no difference at all on the state of Nigerian roads with a 7-pointsdecline in 2014 and a 4-points increase in 2015. On the hand, the proportion of Nigerians who indicated the roads ‘have improved a little’ declined by 9-pointsin 2014 and further declined by 4-points in 2015. While, the proportion of Nigerians that indicated the roads have ‘remained bad’ compared to the previous years, increased by 4- points in 2014 and further increased by2-points in 2015. Meanwhile, the proportion of Nigerians who consider the state of the Nigerian roads as being‘very bad or has gone worse’ declined by 4-points in 2014 and has remained stable till date. This findings therefore indicates that while there was significant improvement on the Nigerian roads from 2013 to 2014, there has little or no improvement in their current state State of Security across Nigeria during the Festive Holiday With the aim of assessing the security state of Nigerians’ residence, respondents were asked: How would you describe the state of security where you spent the Holiday? Findings from the survey revealed that most Nigerians (85%) found the location where they spent the holidays ‘peaceful and secure’. Furthermore, 10%indicated that their environment was ‘peaceful but not secure’while 5% described it as ‘tense and insecure’. Across the geo-political zones, the North-Central has the largest proportion of Nigerians who indicated having a ‘peaceful and a secure’ environment during the holiday (96%). Meanwhile, North-East has the largest proportion of residents that indicated having a ‘peaceful but not secure’ environment (22%) and those that indicated it was a ‘tense and insecure’ (14%). Trend analysis on the state of security reveals a 15-points increase in 2014 and a slight 2-points decline in2015 in the number of Nigerians who indicated having a ‘peaceful and secure’ environment during the holiday. In general, this implies that most Nigerians still believe that their environment is ‘peaceful and secure’ even though the proportion of Nigerians dropped slightly in 2015. Meanwhile, the proportion of Nigerians that indicated having a ‘peaceful but not secure’ environment declined by 11-points in 2014, and further declined by 1-point in 2015. In addition to this, the number of Nigerians that claimed to have a ‘tense and insecure’ environment during the holiday dropped by 3-points in 2014 and then increased by 3-points in 2015. Key Areas Nigerians want the President to Focus On In a bid to ascertain the opinion of the public on the key areas that needs to be focused on in 2015, respondents were asked: What are the three key areas you would like the President to focus his attention to this year 2015? Survey findings revealed that the 3 key areas Nigerians would like the president to focus on are ‘Security’(25%), followed by ‘Job creation’ (15%) and ‘Electricity’ (13%). Across geo-political zones, the northern region particularly the North-East, has the highest proportion of Nigerians that indicated ‘security’ as a key area the President needs to focus on in 2015. This is not surprising considering the spate of terrorist attacks in North –East region towards the end of 2014. Also, North-East zone has the highest proportion of Nigerians that indicated ‘Electricity’ as a key area that needs attention. On the other hand, South-South residents indicated‘Job Creation’ as an area that needs the President’s attention. Yearly trend analysis on the key areas the government needs to focus attention on reveals that while ‘Job creation’ and Electricity were of priority to Nigerians in 2013 and 2014, ‘Security’ has become paramount for Nigerians in 2015 due its current state and ill effects in the nation. Though ‘Job creation’ and ‘Electricity are still of great importance to Nigerians in 2015, however attention on these have decreased over the years. Conclusion The Annual New Year Special Edition Poll released by NOIPolls revealed that most Nigerians (81%) enjoyed the festive holidays. A three (3)-year trend analysis revealed that more Nigerians reported they experienced an enjoyable Christmas and New Year holiday in 2015 (81%) than in 2014 (79%). More findings revealed that most (64%) Nigerians did not travel during the festive holidays while 36% of Nigerians especially South-East residents (69%) confirmed they traveled to various locations during the festive holidays. The slight majority of Nigerians who travelled for the festive holidays reported an increase in the cost of transportation; they also reported an improvement in Nigerian roads. Furthermore findings from the poll revealed that most Nigerians found the environment where they spent the holidays very ‘peaceful and secure’. Though, the North-East region has the largest proportion of residents that indicated ‘peaceful but not secure’ and ‘tense and insecure’environments during the holiday. Finally, an assessment of the key areas of focus for the President revealed that most Nigerians would like the President to focus on ‘Security’ especially in theNorth-East region, followed by‘Job Creation’ and ‘Electricity’ in 2015.

  • The NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index at 64.8-points in Quarter 2, 2017

    Abuja, Nigeria. July 25th, 2017 – The Portfolio of Indices report released by NOIPolls for Q2, 2017 revealed that the NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) stood at 64.8-points in Q2 2017; this represents a slight increase of 2.1-points when compared with 62.7-points obtained in Q1, 2017. The Consumer Confidence Index reveals consumers’ tendencies to spend, which is directly proportional to their expectations for a general improvement in the country’s economic conditions, employment opportunities, personal financial strength and stability in the prices of goods and services. This slight leap in the confidence of consumers in Nigeria could have influenced their propensity to purchase with a degree of optimism about the overall state of the economy. This optimism could be linked to some improvements in policies in recent times which has propelled the nation’s economy into the path of recovery in Q2, 2017, although, in a slow pace. Some of the policies include improvement in foreign exchange, Ease of Doing Business, the Executive Orders, amongst others according to The Business Confidence Monitor (BCM) that was released recently by the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG)[1]. In addition, there are two variables that make up the CCI; the Present Situation Index (PSI) and the Expectation Index (EI). The PSI and the EI both experienced an increase of 3.8-points and 0.9-point respectively when compared to the result obtained in Q1, 2017. These are the key highlights from the Q2, 2017 Portfolio of Indices Press Release. In February 2014, NOIPolls introduced its portfolio of indices; the NOIPolls Personal Well-Being Index (PWBI), the NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) and the NOIPolls Eagle 30 Business Confidence Index (EBCI). The NOIPolls Personal Well-Being Index measures factors impacting on the lives of everyday Nigerians; thereby producing a complete view of the individual’s personal well-being. The NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index provides consumer assessments of the economic situation and their intentions and expectations for the future. The NOIPolls Eagle 30 Business Confidence Index measures business leaders’ perceptions and expectations about the Nigerian business environment using the top 30 companies in the country. Nigerian businesses, financial and government agencies largely depend on their perceptions and micro assessment of consumers’ expectation in making decisions. At best, they draw conclusions on the business environment based on information from their immediate surroundings while the minorities conduct surveys that are time and money consuming. However, the introduction of these indices provides indicators that will ensure stakeholders can detect and respond to changes in consumer behaviour, the economy, and the business environment in Nigeria. This report presents the Q2, 2017 results for the NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index (CCI). THE NOIPOLLS CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX (CCI) The NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) in Q2, 2017, experienced an increase of 2.1-points to stand at 64.8-points. This indicates a slight increase in confidence among consumers in the country, propelled by assurance in their financial stance in relation to the expectation of the country’s economic situation, and it could be used by stakeholders to obtain qualitative information on key leading economic indicators such as investment, prices, demand conditions, employment etc. to make informed decisions. The 2 independent variables that consist of the NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index; the Present Situation Index (PSI) and Expectation Index (EI) both experienced an increase in Q2, 2017. The PSI increased with 3.8-points from 34.3-points in Q1, 2017 to stand at 38.1-points in Q2, 2017, while the EI also increased with 0.9-point from 84.0-points in Q1, 2017 to stand at 84.9-points in Q2, 2017. The PSI measures general consumer thoughts in relation to the present economic situation, while the EI evaluates the overall consumer sentiments toward the short-term future economic situation. The PSI and the EI are made up of a total of 7 variables and all these variables experienced an increase except the Expected Total Family Income Index which experienced a decline while the Expected Employment Condition Index remained the same. These are highlighted below. Current Economic Situation Index–42.2 The Current Economic Situation Index increased from 39.5-points in Q1, 2017 to 42.2-points in Q2, 2017. Although this index experienced an increase of 2.7-points, it still indicates that consumers are somewhat not satisfied with the country’s Current Economic Situation. Expectation of the Country’s Economic Situation Index –94.4 The Expectation of the Country’s Economic situation index is one of the highest indices and it increased by 0.9-point from 93.5-points obtained in Q1, 2017 to stand at 94.4-points. This portrays a high optimism about the improvement in the country’s economic situation. Current Employment Condition Index – 53.4 The Current Employment Condition improved from the average (50-points) position in Q1, 2017 to stand at 53.4-points in Q2, 2017 representing a significant 3.4-points increase. Expected Employment Condition Index – 98.4 The Expected Employment Condition Index remained the same (98.4-points) as the result obtained in Q1, 2017, signifying that Nigerians are still optimistic in terms of their expected employment condition. Current Prices of Goods and Services Index – 18.8 The Current Prices of Goods and Services Index experienced the highest increase of 5.3-points in this quarter to stand at 18.8-points from 13.5-points recorded in Q1, 2017. Though, it remained the lowest index, the increase observed in Q2, 2017 revealed negativity in the country’s market developments, meaning thatprices of goods and services are increasing. Expectation of Prices of Goods and Services Index – 79.58 The Expectation of Prices of Goods and Services Index increased by 3.6-points from 76-points in Q1, 2017 to stand at 79.6-points in Q2, 2017 and this shows that consumers are optimistic that there will be a reduction in prices of the goods and services in the future. Expected Total Family Income Index – 67.1 The Expected Total Family Income Index is the only variable that experienced a decline of 0.8-point to stand at 67.1-points. This assumes that consumers are, to some degree, sceptical about their expected total family income which is capable of weakening the spending powers of consumers. TREND ANALYSIS Trend analysis showed that the PSI increased by 3.8-points to stand at 38.1-points in Q2, 2017, while the EI also increased by 0.9-point to stand at 84.9-points in Q2, 2017. The increase experienced by these 2 components influenced the increase in the overall CCI. In conclusion, the NOIPolls Consumer Confidence Index increased by 2.1-points to stand at 64.8-points. Correspondingly, the two independent variables that make up the CCI, the Present Situation Index (PSI) and the Expectation Index (EI) both experienced an increase of 3.8-points and 0.9-point respectively in Q2, 2017. This slight increase infers that consumers’ confidence is gradually improving and this may have been driven by improved efficiency in economic management of the country. Therefore, the Federal Government should do its best at sustaining its effort to ease the business environment, make credit available to the real sector and to also continue and intensify its ongoing quest to diversify the economy beyond relying on oil exports so as to stimulate more economic activities in the country. Survey Methods The Consumer Confidence Index Poll was conducted in Quarter 2, 2017. The CCI involved telephone interviews of a random nationwide sample. 3,000 randomly selected phone-owning Nigerians aged 18 years and above, representing the six geopolitical zones in the country, were interviewed. With a sample of this size, we can say with 95% confidence that the results obtained are statistically precise – within a range of plus or minus 3%. NOIPolls Limited, No1 for country specific polling services in West Africa. We conduct periodic opinion polls and studies on various socio-economic and political issues in Nigeria. More information is available at www.noi-polls.com or you can download our mobile app NOIPolls on your smartphone. Disclaimer This press release has been produced by NOIPolls Limited to provide information on all issues which form the subject matter of the document. Kindly note that while we are willing to share results from our polls with the general public, we only request that NOIPolls be acknowledged as author whenever and wherever our poll results are used, cited or published. NOIPolls hereby certifies that all the views expressed in this document accurately reflect its views of respondents surveyed for the poll, and background information is based on information from various sources that it believes are reliable; however, no representation is made that it is accurate or complete. Whilst reasonable care has been taken in preparing this document, no responsibility or liability is accepted for errors or fact or for any views expressed herein by NOIPolls for actions taken as a result of information provided in this report. Any ratings, forecasts, estimates, opinions or views herein constitute a judgment as at the date of this document. If the date of this document is not current, the views and content may not reflect NOIPolls’ current findings and/or thinking. Press Contact The Editor Email: editor@noi-polls.com [1] https://www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2017/06/04/business-undeterred-by-sluggish-q1-performance/

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