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- 9 in 10 Nigerians say Young Adults Are Most Known Abusers of Drugs & Substance
Abuja, Nigeria. July 9th, 2013 – Latest weekly poll results released by NOI Polls Limited reveal that almost 9 in 10 Nigerians (90%) believe the highest abusers of drugs and substance are teenagers and young adults aged between 15 and 29 years old. Furthermore, our results show that the most abused substance in Nigeria is marijuana followed by Codeine (Cough Syrup) and Alcohol (in whatever from). The key causes for the rise in drug and substance abuse are listed aspoverty and unemployment. These are the key findings from the drugs and substance poll conducted in the week of July 1st 2013. The World Health Organization (WHO) describes Drugs and substance abuse as “the harmful or hazardous use of psychoactive substances, including alcohol and illicit drugs”. It also refers to a condition in which a person consumes the substance in quantities or with procedures which are not approved or monitored medically. Substance and drugs abuse encompasses the use of “mood-altering or psycho-active drugs; illicit drugs – narcotics; stimulants; depressants (sedatives); hallucinogens; cannabis; glues and paints, Substance abuse often includes problems with impulse control and impulsive behavior”.[1] Worldwide, there has been an increase in drugs and substance abuse especially amongst young adults, with no exclusion to Nigeria. In 2011 the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime reported that Nigeria was top on the chart in drug/substance abuse in Africa. It also reported that Nigerians are the largest abusers of cannabis in Africa. Furthermore, the Nigerian Drug Law Enforcement Agency (NDLEA),which is in charge of monitoring and controlling the abuse and trafficking of illicit drugs, reported that within the period of 1999 to 2007 alone, about 2,267,830.53 kilograms of various illegal drugs and substances were seized all over Nigeria.[2] On June 26th, the International Day against Drug Abuse and Illicit Trafficking was commemorated. This day is set aside by the United Nations to recap the goals established by stakeholder states towards eradicating drug abuse and attaining an international society that is free of drug abuse. This is done mainly by creating awareness and educating youths and adults on the hazardous and social effects of substance abuse and to guard against it.[3] The effect of drugs on individuals and the society at large cannot be over emphasized. Drug addiction and substance abuse can be linked to various ill effects in the society. Several findings have shown that substance abuse to a large extent is directly related to the increase in crime and violence in the country. A number of abusers, especially youths and young adults, have been identified to be involved in armed robbery and daring exploits. Substance abuse has also been linked, to a certain level, to early school dropout and a number of HIV/AIDS cases due to the sharing of needles in the course of administrating drugs. Based on this background, NOI Polls conducted its latest poll on drugs and substance abuse in Nigeria in order to explore the awareness of Nigerians regarding the issue, in the areas of: the most abused drugs and substance in Nigeria; the predominant age group of abusers; causes of drugs and substance abuse, as well as remedies to curb the issue. Respondents to the poll were asked five specific questions. The first question sought to determine the opinion of Nigerians towards the level of drugs and substance abuse in Nigeria. In your opinion to what extent do you agree that there is a high level of drugs and substance abuse in Nigeria? In reaction to this the overall majority (91%: 44%+47%) agree that there is a high level of drugs and substance abuse in Nigeria. Comparatively, 5% do not agree and 4% remained neutral about the situation as they neither agree nor disagree to the high level of drug and substance abuse in Nigeria. Analysis from geo-political zones revealed that the North-East zone (98%:50%+48%) and the North-West zone (96%:44%+52%) had the highest proportion of respondents who agreed that there is high level of drugs and substance abuse in Nigeria and closely followed by the South-East zone with 90%(43%+47%). In addition the South-South zone had the highest proportion that does not agree that there is a high level of drugs and substance in Nigeria. [1] National Institute of Drug Abuse: www.drugabuse.gov [2] NDLEA: www.ndlea.gov.ng [3] United Nations: www.un.org Subsequently, in order to gain an insight to the drugs and substances mostly abused in Nigeria, respondents were asked the following question: In your opinion, what drugs or substance is mostly abused in Nigeria? Findings from this question showed that the most abused drug and substance in Nigeria is marijuana, as indicated by the majority (34%). This finding further supports the statistics of the United Nations stating that Nigeria had the highest level of abuse of cannabis (marijuana) in Africa. The second on the chart identified by 22% of the respondents is codeine (cough syrup); this is followed by alcohol (20%), then tobacco with 9%, prescription drugs 9% and hard drugs being the least with 6%. In exploring the most abused drugs and substances from the geo-political zones perspective, findings show that while theNorth-West zone accounted for the highest proportion of respondents (43%) that indicated marijuana as the most abused substance, the North-East zone had the highest proportion of respondents (62%) that indicated codeine (cough syrup) as the most abused substance. Addtionally, the South- East zone had the highest number of respondents (35%) that pointed out Alcohol as the most abused substance in Nigeria. Furthermore, the quest for more insight to the age category of drugs and substance abusers in Nigeria led to the following question: Among what age group do you believe drug and substance abuse is most common? Alarmingly, the results show that teenagers and young adults aged between 15 and 29 years are the most abusers of drugs and substance in Nigeria as indicated by the overall majority of respondents (90%: 57%+33%) where 57% indicated 19-29 years and 33% indicated 15-18 years. 7% of the respondents are of the opinion that drugs and substance abuse is most common in the age group of 30- 44 years, another 2% indicated 0-14 years and only 1% indicated 45-59 years. Analysis according to geo-political zones showed that the South-East zone accounted for the highest proportion of respondents (79%) that indicated 19-29 years as the most common age group with drugs and substance abuse in Nigeria; this is followed by the North-Central and South-West zones with 66% and 65% respectively. Also majority of respondents that indicated 15-18 years were from the North-East zone with 71% followed by the North-West zone with 44%. The fourth question sought the opinion of respondents on the possible reasons why people abuse drugs and substances:In your opinion what are the causes of drugs and substance abuse? From reactions of respondents the most significant cause of drugs and substance abuse as highlighted by the majority (36%) is “Poverty and Unemployment”. “Peer pressure, societal influence and Bad friends” also play important roles as causes of drugs and substance abuse as these came second on the chart with 33%. Other causes of drugs and substance abuse revealed from findings include“Parental Neglect, Poor upbringing and Indiscipline” indicated by 18% of the respondents, “Corrupt society, Ignorance and Lack of control checks and orientation” indicated by 15%, “Frustration; Depression; Stress; Worry; loneliness and Idleness” specified by 12% of the respondents. Reasons of drugs and substance abuse that came at the bottom of the chart include “Illiteracy” (5%), “Self pleasure” (5%), as well as “Availability and Affordability” (2%). Further analysis from geo-political zones showed that the North-West zone accounted for the highest proportion of respondents (58%) that pointed out “Poverty and Unemployment” as the major causes of drugs and substance abuse. Also majority of the respondents that indicated “Peer pressure; societal influence and Bad friends” were from the North-Central zone (42%). When the findings were analysed according to gender, interesting discoveries show that while more male respondents (46%) blamed “Poverty and Unemployment” as the major causes of drugs and substance abuse, more female respondents (42%) suggested that “Peer Pressure; Societal influence and Bad friends” were responsible for the rising occurrence of drugs and substance abuse especially amongst teenagers and young adults in Nigeria. Lastly in order to seek public opinion on measures that can be taken towards reducing the abuse of illicit drugs and substances respondents were asked: What can be done to curb the rising incidence of drugs and substance abuse in Nigeria? A slight majority of 39% are of the opinion that creating more “Awareness/Orientation in public, homes and schools on the effects” of drugs and substance to a great extent would reduce the rise in drugs and substance abuse especially amongst teenagers and young adults as stated in a previous question. Another group of the respondents (37%) suggested that “Youth empowerment, Creation of jobs and Improved standard of living” is paramount in curbing the situation. Furthermore, 14% of the respondents are of the opinion that more “Law enforcement and Penalties” will reduce the problem to its minimum; another 8% said “Good governance, Effective control checks, Improved & Approved medication services” would go a long way in curbing the rise in Nigeria. Other remedies that came least in the chart include “Selling/Importation of illegal drugs should be banned” suggested by 5% of the respondents, “Free/Improved educational system” indicated by 3% of the respondents, “Religious leaders should keep speaking against it Prayers”pointed out by 2% of respondentsand “Create more rehabilitation centres” indicated by 1% of the respondents. Analysis according to geo-political zones revealed that while the South-South zone had the highest number of respondents (49%) advocating for the creation of more “Awareness/Orientation in public, homes and schools on the effects”, majorityof the respondents (60%) that advocatedfor “Youth empowerment; Creation of jobs and Improved standard of living” were from the North-West zone. Also the North-East zone accounted for the highest proportion of respondents (28%) that suggested more “Law enforcement and Penalties” as a remedy for curbing the rise in drugs and substance abuse in Nigeria In summary, the results from this current poll have revealed that almost 9 in 10 Nigerians (90%) believe the highest abusers of drugs and substance are teenagers and young adults aged between 15 and 29 years old.It has also emerged true from this poll that the most abused substance in Nigeria is marijuana. Since poverty, unemployment, peer pressure, societal influence and bad friends came top as the major causes associated with the rising abuse of drugs and substance, thus, careful consideration should to be given to the creation of more awareness on the effects of drugs and substance abuse. This should be greatly supported by youth empowerment and more job creation in order to generally improve the standard of living especially amongst the age group identified. In addition there should be more focus on the enforcement of laws and penalties which should be enforced in order to keep a check and balance on the drugs problem, which has greatly affected the Nigerian society. Survey Methods The opinion poll was conducted on July 1st to 4th 2013. It involved telephone interviews of a random nationwide sample. 1,013 randomly selected phone-owning Nigerians aged 18 years and above, representing the six geopolitical zones in the country, were interviewed. With a sample of this size, we can say with 95% confidence that the results obtained are statistically precise – within a range of plus or minus 3%. NOI Polls Limited is Nigeria’s leading opinion polling and research organisation, which works in technical partnership with the Gallup Organisation (USA), to conduct periodic opinion polls and studies on various socio-economic and political issues in Nigeria. More information is available at www.noi-polls.com Disclaimer This press release has been produced by NOI Polls Limited to provide information on all issues which form the subject matter of the document. Kindly note that while we are willing to share results from our polls with the general public, we only request that NOI Polls be acknowledged as author whenever and wherever our poll results are used, cited or published. NOI Polls hereby certifies that all the views expressed in this document accurately reflect its views of respondents surveyed for the poll, and background information is based on information from various sources that it believes are reliable; however, no representation is made that it is accurate or complete. Whilst reasonable care has been taken in preparing this document, no responsibility or liability is accepted for errors or fact or for any views expressed herein by NOI Polls for actions taken as a result of information provided in this report. Any ratings, forecasts, estimates, opinions or views herein constitute a judgment as at the date of this document. If the date of this document is not current, the views and content may not reflect NOI Polls’ current findings and/or thinking. Press Contact The Editor Email: editor@noi-polls.com
- Mixed Reactions Trail Postponement of 2015 General Elections
Abuja, Nigeria. February 10th, 2015 – Latest snap poll results released by NOIPolls Limited have revealed that Nigerians have expressed mixed opinions regarding the postponement of the 2015 general elections. Findings from the poll revealed that Nigerians are evenly divided in support for (41 percent) and against (41 percent) the postponement of the general elections; while 18 percent of Nigerians were indifferent about the postponement. Further analysis revealed that while the North-East and North-West geopolitical zones had the highest proportion of respondents who were not in support of the postponement (49 percent each); more respondents in the South-South zone were in support of the postponement (57 percent). Also, a significant proportion of those in support of the postponement were of the opinion that the extension would grant more people the opportunity to collect their permanent voters cards (PVCs) (25 percent). Other reasons cited included ‘Security Concerns’ (20 percent) and to ‘Allow INEC time for Adequate Preparation’ (20 percent)amongst other reasons. On the other hand, respondents not in support of the postponement mainly cited‘Disruption of people’s plans’ (22 percent) as a reason for not supporting the postponement. Also some Nigerians reported the postponement ‘Has postponed our expectation for Change’ (19 percent) and to ‘Gives room for election rigging’ among other reasons. These are some of the key findings from the election postponement poll conducted in the week of February 9th 2015. Brief Background The 2015 general elections to elect the President, Members of the House of Representatives and the Senate, Governors and Members of the State Assembly will be the fourth elections since the end of military rule in 1999 in Nigeria. The general elections which were scheduled to hold on 14th and 28th of February 2015, have postponed by six weeks to 28th of March and 11th of April 2015 due to recommendations from the national security advisor and some political party chairmen on security issues.[1] The postponement of the general elections was confirmed by the chairman of the Independent NationalElectoral Commission(INEC), Attahiru Jega, on Saturday, 7th February 2015 barely one week to the presidential election, during a press briefing. Against this background NOIPolls conducted its latest poll to assess the awareness and support of Nigerians on the postponement of the 2015 general elections. Survey Findings Respondents to the poll were asked four specific questions. In order to gauge the awareness of Nigerians on the postponement of the general elections, respondents were asked: Are you aware that the General Elections have been postponed from 14th February to 28th March 2015? Findings revealed that the majority of Nigerians (93 percent) irrespective of gender, geo-political zone and age-group confirmed their awareness of the postponement of the general elections while only 7 percent of the respondents claimed not to be informed about the postponement of the General Elections. [1] http://allafrica.com/stories/201502070324.html With the aim of measuring the support of Nigerians for the postponement of the general elections, respondents were asked: Are you in support of the postponement of the General Elections to 28th March 2015? Findings revealed an even split in the proportion of Nigerians in support and not in support of the postponement of the election with 41 percent each. However 18 percent were indifferent about the postponement of the general elections. The results indicate a clear division between the Northern and Southern regions of Nigeria on the postponement of the election; as further analysis by geo-political zone reveals that the South-South zone has the largest proportion of respondents who support the postponement of the general elections. The North-East zone (49 percent) and the North-West zone (49 percent) accounted for the highest number of Nigerians who do not support the postponement of the general elections. Analysis by gender reveals that more male (46 percent) than female (35 percent) respondents do not support the election postponement. Subsequently, respondents who showed support for the postponement of the general elections (41percent of the total) were further asked: Why are you in support of the postponement of the general elections? Findings revealed that 25 percent of Nigerians support the postponement of the general elections as it ‘Allows more time for PVC collection’; this is followed by 20 percent who indicated ‘Security concerns’ (20 percent) and another 20 percent who were of the opinion that the postponement would give INEC time for adequate preparation for the elections amongst other reasons. Further analysis by geo-political zones indicates that the South-East zone (46 percent) accounted for the largest proportion of respondents in support the postponement of the as it ‘allows more time for PVC collection’, while the North-East zone (38 percent) represents the largest proportion of Nigerians who support the postponement of the general elections due to ‘security concerns’. Finally, respondents who do not support the postponement (41 percent of the total) were also asked: Why are you not in support of the postponement of the general elections? Findings revealed varied reasons for lack of support of the postponement. 22 percent of respondents not in support of the postponement indicated ‘disruption of people’s plans’, as a reason for not supporting the postponement of the election. In addition, some Nigerians think it ‘has postponed their expectation for change’ (19 percent) and it ‘gives room for election rigging’ (11 percent) amongst other reasons. Further analysis by geo-political zones revealed that the South-East zone (40 percent) accounts for the largest proportion of respondents who do not support the postponement of the elections due to the disruption in people’s plans, while the North-East zone (25 percent) accounts for the largest proportion of Nigerians who do not support the postponement claiming it has postponed their expectation for change. In conclusion, the findings from this current poll have revealed that majority of Nigerians (93 percent) are aware of postponement of the 2015 general elections from the 14th February to the 28th March 2015 and 28th February to 11th April 2015. Also, findings revealed an even split in the proportions of Nigerians in support and not in support of the postponement of the general elections (41 percent each). The results show that significant proportions of respondents support the postponement for various reason: ‘Allow time to obtain PVC’ (25 percent); ‘Security Concerns’ (20 percent) and to ‘Allow INEC time for Adequate Preparation’ (20 percent) amongst others. On the other hand, those who do not support the postponement cited reasons such as:‘Have disrupted people’s plans’ (22 percent); ‘Have postponed their expectation for Change’ (19 percent);and ‘Gives room for election rigging’ to mention a few. Finally, the results of this poll have indicated a clear division in the country, particularly between the Northern and Southern regions resulting from political tension. Therefore, it is critical that all stakeholders in the forthcoming elections – INEC, political parties, candidates, security agencies, CSOs and the media etc – must work together to ensure that the key issues highlighted for the postponement of the elections are addressed accordingly; and Nigerians informed on milestones achieved, to avoid possible pre and post-elections civil unrest. Survey Methods The opinion poll was conducted on the 9th of February 2015. It involved telephone interviews of a random nationwide sample. 1,000 randomly selected phone-owning Nigerians aged 18 years and above, representing the six geopolitical zones in the country, were interviewed. With a sample of this size, we can say with 95percent confidence that the results obtained are statistically precise – within a range of plus or minus 3percent. NOIPolls Limited, No1 for country specific polling services in West Africa, works in technical partnership with the Gallup Organisation (USA). We conduct periodic opinion polls and studies on various socio-economic and political issues in Nigeria. More information is available at www.noi-polls.com Disclaimer This press release has been produced by NOIPolls Limited to provide information on all issues which form the subject matter of the document. Kindly note that while we are willing to share results from our polls with the general public, we only request that NOIPolls be acknowledged as author whenever and wherever our poll results are used, cited or published. NOIPolls hereby certifies that all the views expressed in this document accurately reflect its views of respondents surveyed for the poll, and background information is based on information from various sources that it believes are reliable; however, no representation is made that it is accurate or complete. Whilst reasonable care has been taken in preparing this document, no responsibility or liability is accepted for errors or fact or for any views expressed herein by NOIPolls for actions taken as a result of information provided in this report. Any ratings, forecasts, estimates, opinions or views herein constitute a judgment as at the date of this document. If the date of this document is not current, the views and content may not reflect NOIPolls’ current findings and/or thinking. Press Contact The Editor Email: editor@noi-polls.com
- Nigerians Endorse Women’s Participation in Politics; 8 in 10 Would be Willing to Vote for Women
Abuja, Nigeria. March 17th, 2015 – Latest snap poll results released by NOIPolls Limited have revealed that most Nigerians (86 percent in total) support the idea of women contesting for political positions in the upcoming 2015 elections; to this regard, 8 in 10 (81 percent) would be willing to vote for any woman contesting for a political position. This stance was regardless of age, geo-political zone and gender, although support was higher among female than male respondents. This finding therefore suggests a great transition in the perception of the participation of women in governance over the years. In line with this, the present administration’s implementation of the National Gender Policy has marked a significant increase in women’s representation in Government from 10 percent in 2011 to over 33 percent in 2013 with the appointment of 13 female Ministers out of 42, representing 31 percent and 4 Special Advisers out of 18, representing 23 percent.[1] This breakthrough in Nigeria’s political history has contributed to the overall success of the Women Empowerment and Gender Equality which is one of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs).[2] More findings revealed that 83 percent of Nigerians believe women in political offices add value to their positions and this cuts across gender, geo-political zones and age-groups. Reasons given by Nigerians for this assertion include ‘Women perform better than men’ (29 percent), ‘Women are capable and focused’ (18 percent) and that ‘Women are considerate’ (13 percent) amongst other reasons. On the other hand 17 percent have a contrary belief citing reasons such as ‘Women are weak’ (32 percent), ‘They have not done well in the past’ (11 percent) and ‘Women should be subjected to men’ (10 percent) amongst other reasons. Finally, An evaluation of the awareness of Nigerians on women in governance revealed the current Coordinating Minister of Finance ‘Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala’ (37 percent), late ‘Dr. Dora Akunyili’ (15 percent), and Minister of Petroleum ‘Mrs. Diezani Alison Madueke’ (11 percent) as the top 3 women Nigerians are aware of. These are the key findings from the recent Women in Governance poll conducted in the week of March 9th 2015. Brief Background The population of Nigeria has been estimated to be about 167 million people and women form half of that population.[3] Women have diverse roles in the society which cannot be over emphasized, although their participation in politics has been very limited. From time past, men’s status was always considered to be as superior to that of women, even among the most socially advanced nations of the world, until after the International Women’s Conference held in Beijing in the year 1995 which marked a remarkable turnaround on the perception of a woman.[4] Barriers to female participation in Nigerian politics are as a result of the limitation to culture, gender equality and African tradition among other reasons. Nigerian women’s participation in the country’s politics is an issue of great importance, however it has been relegated for several years and this has stimulated women’s representation in the public sector.[5] Most women venture into politics in Nigeria so as to have a fair share and support for the female gender, making it one of their major responsibilities with a great percentage of them emerging successfully as public office holders who now occupy key positions in the legislative, executive and judicial arms of government in Nigeria.[6] Against this background, and in commemoration of the International Women’s Day which was celebrated on the 8th of March 2015, NOIPolls conducted its recent poll to gauge the perception of Nigerians on Women in Governance. The poll sought to measure the support of Nigerians for women running for political offices and their willingness to vote these women; as well as the perceptions of Nigerians on the performance of such women. Survey Findings Respondents to the poll were asked four specific questions. Firstly, to gauge support for women contesting for political offices, respondents were asked: To what extent do you support the idea of women contesting for political positions in Nigeria in the upcoming 2015 elections? Findings revealed that the vast majority (86 percent: 47+25+7 percent) of respondents support the idea of women contesting for political positions especially in the upcoming 2015 elections to an extent, where 47% affirmed to a very large extent; while, 14 percent of Nigerians are not in support of women contesting for political positions in Nigeria. Further analysis by gender revealed that more female (70 percent) than male (53 percent) Nigerians appreciate the idea of women contesting for political positions in the country to a very large extent. Analysis by geo-political zone revealed that the South-East zone (70 percent) accounted for the largest proportion of Nigerians who support the idea of women contesting for political positions in Nigeria to a very large extent. In addition, respondents aged 61 years and above showed the highest level of support for women contesting for political positions. Subsequently, respondents were asked: Personally, would you be willing to vote for any woman contesting for a political position? Responses to this question depicts that a large proportion of the Nigerians (81 percent) would be willing to vote for any woman contesting for a political position, while 16 percent of Nigerians would not be willing to vote for a woman contesting for a political position. Further evaluation by geo-political zone revealed that while the majority of respondents across all geo-political zones would be willing to vote for any woman contesting for a political position, the North-West (23 percent) and the North-East (20 percent) zones accounted for the largest proportion of respondents who stated that they will not be willing to vote for any woman contesting for a political position. In order to ascertain the perception of Nigerians on women in political positions, respondents were asked: In your opinion, do you think that women in political offices add value to such office/positions? In response to this question, the majority (83 percent) acknowledged that women in political offices add value to their positions and this cuts across gender, geo-political zones and age-groups. Conversely, 17 percent of the respondents surveyed were of the view that women in political offices do not add value to their positions. Furthermore, respondents were asked: If yes or no to the question above, please give reasons? Respondents who admitted that women add value to political positions gave several reasons for their assertion such as ‘Women perform better than men’ (29 percent), ‘Women are capable and focused’ (18 percent) and that ‘Women are considerate’ (13 percent) amongst other reasons. Meanwhile, respondents who said no gave reasons such as ‘Women are weak’ (32 percent), ‘They have not done well in the past’ (11 percent) and ‘Women should be subjected to men’ (10 percent) amongst other reasons. Finally, respondents were asked: Can you mention the names of some women holding political offices that you are aware of? The results revealed that the current Coordinating Minister of Finance ‘Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala’ (37 percent) tops the list of women holding political offices that Nigerians are aware of. This is followed by late ‘Dr. Dora Akunyili’ (15 percent), the current Minister of Petroleum ‘Mrs. Diezani Alison Madueke’ (11 percent) and Mrs. Ruqayyah Ahmed Rufa’i (3 percent) amongst other women in the list. In conclusion, current poll results revealed that most respondents (86 percent: 47+25+7 percent) support the idea of women contesting for political positions especially in the upcoming 2015 elections to an extent; and a large proportion of Nigerians (81 percent) would be willing to vote for any woman contesting for a political position. More findings revealed that 83 percent of Nigerians believe that women in political offices add value to their positions and this cuts across gender, geo-political zone and age-group and reasons given for this belief include ‘Women perform better than men’ (29 percent), ‘Women are capable and focused’ (18 percent) and that ‘Women are considerate’ (13 percent) amongst other reasons. Finally, the current Coordinating Minister of Finance ‘Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala’ (37 percent) tops the list of women holding political offices that Nigerians are aware of. This is followed by late ‘Dr, Dora Akunyili’ (15 percent), the current minister of petroleum ‘Mrs. Diezani Alison Madueke’ (11 percent) and Mrs. Ruqayyah Ahmed Rufa’i (3 percent) amongst other women in the list. Survey Methods The opinion poll was conducted in the week of 9th March 2015. It involved telephone interviews of a random nationwide sample. 1,000 randomly selected phone-owning Nigerians aged 18 years and above, representing the six geopolitical zones in the country were interviewed. With a sample of this size, we can say with 95 percent confidence that the results obtained are statistically precise – within a range of plus or minus 3 percent. NOIPolls Limited, No1 for country specific polling services in West Africa, which works in technical partnership with the Gallup Organisation (USA) to conduct periodic opinion polls and studies on various socio-economic and political issues in Nigeria. More information is available at www.noi-polls.com Disclaimer This press release has been produced by NOIPolls Limited to provide information on all issues which form the subject matter of the document. Kindly note that while we are willing to share results from our polls with the general public, we only request that NOIPolls be acknowledged as author whenever and wherever our poll results are used, cited or published. NOIPolls hereby certifies that all the views expressed in this document accurately reflect its views of respondents surveyed for the poll, and background information is based on information from various sources that it believes are reliable; however, no representation is made that it is accurate or complete. Whilst reasonable care has been taken in preparing this document, no responsibility or liability is accepted for errors or fact or for any views expressed herein by NOIPolls for actions taken as a result of information provided in this report. Any ratings, forecasts, estimates, opinions or views herein constitute a judgment as at the date of this document. If the date of this document is not current, the views and content may not reflect NOIPolls’ current findings and/or thinking. Press Contact The Editor Email: editor@noi-polls.com [1]www.nigerianstat.gov.ng/pages/download/156 [2]http://www.vanguardngr.com/2013/06/all-the-presidents-women-the-tale-of-a-paradigm-shift/ [3] http://www.population.gov.ng/index.php/84-news/latest/106-nigeria-over-167-million-population-implications-and-challenges [4]Abiola AA (Ms), Lanre A (eds.) (2003). Gender Audit – 2003 Election and Issues In Women’s Political Participation In Nigeria, A Publication of Women Advocates Research And Documentation Centre (WARDC). [5]www.onlinenigeria.com/nigerianwoman/?blurb=151 [6]Ezegbe, N. B. (2000). Problems and Prospects to Women Participation in Politics: Implications for Poverty Alleviation. Journal of Nigeria Educational Research Association.
- Lagos State Governorship Elections Poll
Lagos, Nigeria. March 22, 2011 – ANAP Foundation (ANAP) is a non profit organisation committed to promoting good governance in Nigeria. Ahead of the gubernatorial elections scheduled to hold on April 16, 2011, ANAP Foundation decided to commission NOI Polls Limited to conduct a face-to-face Lagos State governorship poll to ascertain public sentiment on the candidacy of aspirants for the office of Governor. NOI Polls administered the survey utilizing well established survey methodologies, including scientifically tested sampling techniques, developed by the Gallup Organization. The opinion poll was carried out from February 7th – February 22nd 2011 with a representative random sample of Lagos State residents drawn from its Local Government Areas (LGA’s) and reflecting rural urban split in population. The overriding objective of the poll exercise is to empirically establish which of the Lagos State governorship candidates stands the greatest chance of receiving the people’s mandate to ascend to the state’s highest office. The rationale for the poll in the run up to the election is to provide the people of Lagos State with the opportunity to express their views on salient political issues and candidates, as well as to generate data which gives an indication of the voting intentions of Lagos State Citizens prior to the elections. Data generated from the Lagos State Governorship Poll, revealed the following:? Majority of Lagos State residents have given some thought to the April elections. Nearly 9 in 10 of the respondents have voted in at least one previous election. Majority of residents of Lagos State registered or planned to register to vote in the upcoming elections. An extension of the period for the voter registration exercise would further enable registration of eligible voters. 41% of the Lagos State electorate were aware that Ade Dosunmu is running for governorship of the state. 98% of the respondents were aware that Babatunde Fashola is running for governorship of Lagos state. For all other candidates, less than 10% of Lagos State residents knew that they were running for governor. Just under two-thirds (65%) of eligible voters in Lagos State indicated intentions to vote for Babatunde Fashola in the April elections. Majority (89%) of Lagos State voters feel very strongly about their choice for the governorship position. Most (64%) of the respondents think that Babatunde Fashola will win the April governorship election. Lagos State residents generally approve of Babatunde Fashola’s performance as governor (86%). The questionnaire for the Lagos State Governorship poll was designed in English and translated into the major Nigerian languages- Hausa, Ibo, Yoruba and Pidgin English. In addition, interviewers were locally recruited to ensure coverage of all state geographical and demographic groups.
- Nigerians Divided Over Choice of Presidential Candidates
Abuja, Nigeria. October 18, 2010 As more Nigerians declare their intentions to run for office in the 2011 presidential elections, NOI Polls has embarked on an ongoing exercise to track the popularity of presidential aspirants as well as other related electoral events. In a recent survey, Nigerians were asked their opinions on selected presidential candidates. General Buhari (Retired) Participants in the survey were asked if they were aware of retired General Buhari’s intention to run for office in the forthcoming elections. Well over 9 in 10 people (97%) surveyed were aware of this fact. When asked if they felt he should run for office, 41% said he should ,while nearly 6 in 10 people (58%) said he should not run. The Majority of the people (70%) who said he should run, cited “his right” as a Nigerian as the reason he should run. 8% said he had the “experience” needed, 5% said “he is a man of integrity”, while the reason given by another 8% was “he is a good man”. The highest proportion (34%) of respondents who said he should not run, mentioned a “preference for other candidates” as the reason why he should not run for office. 22% said they wanted a “new generation of leaders”, while 14% each cited a “general dislike” for the candidate and an inability to “provide the positive change need in Nigeria”. Governor Bukola Saraki While 88% of the people polled were aware of Governor Saraki’s intention to run for office, only slightly over one-third (35%) of respondents felt he should run. 62% said he should not run while 3% did not have anything to say on the issue. The vast majority (84%) of those who said he should run for office, mentioned “his right” as a nigerian as the reason he should run. 6% said he is a “good man”, while 35% each said he is “experienced/ competent” and he is a “man of integrity”. 29% of those who said Governor Saraki should not run, cited a “preference for other candidates” as their major reason. 16% cited a “general dislike” for the candidate,14% said he is “inexperienced/incompetent”;while 11% each mentioned a “bad reputation” and an inability to “provide the positive change needed in Nigeria”, as their reasons. President Goodluck Jonathan Almost all (99%) the people polled said they were aware of president Jonathan’s intention to contest in the upcoming presidential elections. 87% of respondents said they feel he should run for office. This figure is slightly higher than a similar poll conducted in August 2010, before the president declared his intentions to contest, where 81% felt he should run. Again, majority of respondents ( 23%) who said he should run, mentioned “his right” as a Nigerian as their reason. 18% cited “experience/competence”, 16% each said he is “innovative/progressive” and he is a “man of integrity”; while 10% and 12% said he is a “good man” and he “represents a new generation of leaders” respectively. Again, majority of respondents ( 23%) who said he should run, mentioned “his right” as a Nigerian as their reason. 18% cited “experience/competence”, 16% each said he is “innovative/progressive” and he is a “man of integrity”; while 10% and 12% said he is a “good man” and he “represents a new generation of leaders” respectively. Majority (22%) of the respondents who felt he should not run cited a desire for a “new generation of leaders” as their reason. 20 % mentioned a preference for other candidates, 11% each mentioned the zoning formula in PDP meant it was the “Northerners turn” and a “general dislike” for the candidate. It is important to note that 3% and 1 % of the respondents cited he “recent mishaps in the country” and an “INEC under the president cannot conduct free and fair elections” respectively, as their reasons. Respondents for the snap polls were randomly selected from a database of phone-owning Nigerians aged 18 and above across the six geopolitical zones in the country, compiled by NOI Polls. 1058 people took part in the telephone interviews conducted from the 7th to the 11th of October, 2010. For a sample of this size, we can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points. This poll is part of the ongoing snap poll exercise conducted by NOI Polls to rapidly assess public sentiments following various electoral events. NOI Polls is a Nigeria based opinion research organization which Works in technical partnership with Gallup Polls (USA), to conduct periodic opinion polls on various socioeconomic issues in Nigeria.
- Independence Day Special Poll Release
Abuja, Nigeria. October 1st, 2013 – The first day of October symbolizes freedom in the history of Nigeria and marks a special day in which Nigeria gained its independence from the British rule. Year after year, its celebration serves as a reminder of the great sacrifices that were made and of the great ideals which were the foundation of the Nation. Today, as Nigeria celebrates 53 years of independence; NOIPolls presents its annual Independence Day special edition poll to commemorate the Nigerian Independence Day. This poll is the second in the Independence Day Poll series; the first was conducted in October 2012. Click here for the result of 2012 snap poll In this Independence Day Special Edition Poll, results of the poll have revealed that an overwhelmingmajority of Nigerians (94%) say they are truly proud of the Nation, because it is “My Father-land”(64%) and “We are blessed with natural resources” (16%). Also, Employment Creation (22%), Corruption (18%), Education (18%), Electricity (17%) and Security (9%) were identified as the five most important issues that need to be addressed in the next 1 year. Furthermore, after 53 years of independence, Nigerians consider “Democracy” (22%) to be the country’s greatest achievement,followed by “Telecommunications” (19%) and “Unity” (13%). These are a few of the key findings from the Independence Day Poll conducted in the week of September 16th, 2013. Firstly in order to gauge the level of national pride among Nigerians, respondents were asked: Are you proud to be a Nigerian? Findings revealed that the overwhelming majority of Nigerians (94%) responded positively, affirming they are truly proud to be Nigerians. Analysis by gender shows that slightly more males (97%) than females (92%) agree that they are proud to be Nigerians. On the contrary, the poll revealed that only 6% of Nigerians claim they are not proud of to be Nigerians. Further analysis across geo-political zones reveals that all the respondents from the North-East (100%), 98% from the South-East, 96% each from the North-Central & South-South and 82% from the South-East zones are proud to be Nigerians. Furthermore, the North-West zone (18%) accounted for the highest proportion of respondents that claim they are not proud to be Nigerians. In addition, when current findings are compared with 2012 results, there is a 1-point increase in the proportion of Nigerians that are proud of their nationality (93%) in 2012 to (94%) in 2013. There was also a 1-point increase in the proportion of respondents that claim they are not proud to be Nigerians (5% in 2012 to 6% in 2013). Subsequently, respondents who indicated they are proud to be Nigerians (94% of the total) were asked: Why are you proud to be a Nigerian? Overall, the majority (64%) indicated they are proud to be Nigerians simply because Nigeria is “My father land”. Other reasons specified by respondents include “We are blessed with natural resources “(16%), “Peaceful country” (6%) and “Great country” (4%). Analysis based on geo-political zones shows that the North-Central zone (81%) accounted for the highest proportion of respondents that indicated “My father land” as the rationale for being proud to be Nigerians. This is followed by the North-West (77%) and the South-East (63%). Comparing the responses of this current poll with 2012 results show similar results; as the majority also indicated that they were proud to be Nigerian because it is “My father land” and this proportion increased in 2013 by 2-points (62% in 2012 to 64% in 2013). Similarly, respondents that claimed they are not proud to be Nigerians in the initial question (6% of the total) were asked: Why are you not proud to be a Nigerian? Results revealed that the majority (64%) are not proud to be Nigerians because of “Bad leaders”. Other reasons cited are “Corruption” (32%) and “No peace” (4%). Looking across geo-political zones reveals that the North-west zone 84% had the highest number of respondents that blamed “Bad leaders” while all respondents from the North-Central zone (100%) that are not proud to be Nigerians blamed “Corruption”. Again comparing findings of this current poll with 2012, there was a pronounced increase of 28-points in the proportion of respondents that indicated “Bad leaders” as the reason why they are not proud to be Nigerians. There was also a marked increase of 23-points increase in the proportion that indicated “Corruption” in 2012. Also, compared to 2012 when 32% indicated they were not sure of their reasons by selecting “Don’t know”; no respondents said that in 2013. In order to measure the perceptions of Nigerians about the country’s performance since independence, respondents were asked: At 53 years, how well do you think Nigeria has fared as a nation in terms of the economy when compared to Ghana? With regards to economic performance, results reveal that the majority (42%) think Nigeria has performed averagely when compared to Ghana. Furthermore, 36% (29% + 7%) rated Nigeria’s performance negatively, followed by 22% (20%+2%) that rated the country’s performance positively. From the standpoint of geo-political zones, the South-South zone (51%) accounted for the highest number of respondents that rated the economic performance of Nigeria as average compared to Ghana’s; this is followed by the North-Central zone (48%). In addition, the South-West zone had the highest proportion of respondents (53%) that said the Nigeria has performed poorly, while the North-East (41%) and North-West (40%) zones had the highest number of respondents that said Nigeria has performed well in terms of the economy. Comparing responses to the same question in 2012 reveals that the proportion of respondents that are of the opinion that the nation performed averagely in Economic matters, increased by 2-points from 2012 (40%) to 2013 (42%). In addition, there was a 13-points increase in the proportion that said Nigeria has performed well, from 2012 (7%) to 2013 (20%). Respondents were also asked: At 53 years, how well do you think Nigeria has fared as a nation in terms of foreign relations when compared to Ghana? With regards to foreign relations, the overall majority (41%) are of the opinion that Nigeria has performed averagely when compared with Ghana. In addition,36% (28%+8%) stated that Nigeria has performed well, while 22% (21%+2%) indicated Nigeria has performed poorly. From the geo-political standpoint, the North-Central zone (50%) accounted for the highest proportion of respondents that say Nigeria has performed averagely in terms of foreign relations when compared with Ghana. Also the North-East zone (59%: 51%+8%) had the highest proportion that confirmed Nigeria has performed well while the South-West zone (31%: 25%+6%) had the highest proportion of respondents that are of the opinion that Nigeria has performed poorly in foreign relations. Similarly respondents were asked: At 53 years, how well do you think Nigeria has fared as a nation in terms of development when compared to Ghana? Results indicate that once again the majority (40%) think Nigeria has performed averagely in development compared with Ghana. In addition, 38% (30%+8%)believe it has performed poorly while 22% (20%+2%) have the opinion that it has performed well. Further analysis based on geo-political zone showed that the North-West (45%) and South-West (45%) zones had the highest proportion of respondents that claim Nigeria has performed averagely in terms of development. The North-East (48%) accounted for the highest proportion that think Nigeria has performed well in terms of development and the South-West zone (45%) had the highest number of respondents that believe Nigeria has performed poorly. Furthermore, At 53 years, how well do you think Nigeria has fared as a nation in terms of governance when compared to Ghana? In terms of governance, the majority 51% (34%+17%) believe Nigeria has performed poorly in terms of governance when compared with Ghana. In addition, 33% think Nigeria has performed averagely and 16% (15%+1%) are of the opinion that it performed well. Again looking across geo-political zones revealed that the highest percentage of respondents that rated the governance of Nigeria as poor, were from the North-Central zone (63%). In addition, the North-West zone(38%) and South-East zone (38%) had the highest proportion that think Nigeria has performed averagely in terms of governance while the North-East zone (48%) accounted for the highest proportion that have the opinion that Nigeria has performed well. In order to establish the priority of issues currently facing the country, respondents were asked: What is the single most important issue Nigeria as a nation has to address in the next 1 year? The poll results revealed that there are a wide range of issues that Nigerians consider most important. Interestingly, the majority of Nigerians (22%) think the most important issue that needs to be addressed in the next 1 year is “Creating new and more jobs to tackle unemployment”. This is closely followed by “Corruption” and “Education” (18% each) and “Power/Electricity” (17%). Furthermore, 9% affirmed that “Security” should also be given attention, as well as 4% who indicated the “Economy”. Analysis based on geo-political zones shows that the South-East zone (37%) accounted for the highest proportion of respondents that indicated “Creating new jobs/unemployment” as the most important issue that needs to be addressed in the next 1 year. In addition, while the North-East zone (26%) accounted for the highest proportion of respondents that indicated “Corruption” as the most important issue to be addressed, the North-East zone (47%) had the highest number of respondents that proposed “Education” should be given attention in the next 1 year. Comparing the findings of this current poll with 2012 results reveals that in the previous year “Electricity” (18%)was regarded as the most important issue to be addressed compared to “Creating new jobs to tackle unemployment” which is considered to be the top priority for Nigerians at present. Furthermore, there was a 7-Points increase in the proportion of respondents that indicated “Creating new jobs/unemployment” is the top priority from 15% in 2012 to 22% in 2013. Also, “Corruption” increased in importance by 3-points from 15% in 2012 to 18% in 2013 and there was a remarkable 10-Points increase in the proportion that indicated education in 2013. Furthermore, respondents were asked: Assuming you were to become the President of Nigeria, what would be your first assignment in office? Findings reveal the majority of Nigerians (29%) claimed they would tackle employment as their first assignment assuming they were appointed President. This is followed by the economic issues (16%), corruption and Power (both 12%). In addition 11% indicated that if they were to become President, attention would be given to security matters and 10% indicated they would address Education. Analysis by gender reveals that female respondents indicated preference to addressing employment creation and economic issues, while male respondents were mostly concerned about power, corruption and security. Further analysis based on geo-political zones highlights that the highest proportion of respondents that indicated unemployment as the first assignment they would address were from the South-East zone (39%) and theNorth-East zone (25%) accounted for the highest proportion of respondents that indicated economic issue as priority. In addition, while the North-west zone (15%) accounted for the highest proportion of respondents that said corruption would be their priority for the nation, the South-South zone (24%) had highest number of respondents that stated Power would be given priority as their first assignment. Again comparing the findings from this current poll with 2012; Security was the first pick when respondents were asked about their first assignment in office assuming they became President. In 2013, this has reduced significantly in terms of priority dropping by 25 points from 36% in 2012 to 11%. Currently, the top priority selected by respondents to address is employment and this increased by 3 points from 2013. In order to gauge the perceptions of Nigerians on the achievements of the Nation since independence, respondents were asked: In 53 years, what do you consider to be the greatest achievement of Nigeria? Reactions to this question revealed that the greatest achievement of Nigeria as identified by the majority (22%) is “Democracy”, this is followed by “Telecommunications” (19%), “Unity” (13%), “Independence” and “Agriculture” (12% each). Exploring the perceptions of Nigerians across geo-political zones reveals that the South-East zone (37%) had the largest proportion that think “Democracy” is Nigeria’s greatest achievement, and the South-West zone (37%) accounted for the highest proportion of respondents think “Telecommunications” is the greatest achievement. Finally, respondents were asked: What are your expectations for Nigeria in the next 1 year? Responses indicate that the majority (19%) indicated their expectations for Nigeria over the next 1 year is “Addressing unemployment”, closely followed by “Steady power supply” and “Peace and unity” (18% each). Other expectations include “Good governance” (13%) and “Addressing insecurity” (11%). Further analysis across geo political zones indicates that the North-East has the highest proportion of respondents (50%) that indicated “Addressing unemployment” is their expectation while the North-West has the highest proportion (51%) that indicated “Peace and unity”. Furthermore, the South-South (30%) had the largest number that indicated “Steady power supply” is their expectation in the next 1 year. Conclusion The overwhelming majority of Nigerians (94%) have indicated that they are proud to be Nigerians and the main reason is simply because it’s our Father-land (64%) and blessed with natural resources (16%). Furthermore, the minority that claim they are not proud to be Nigerians have this viewpoint mainly because of bad leaders (64%) and Corruption (32%). In addition, when Nigerians were asked about their expectations over the next 1 year, the majority indicated that they expected unemployment to be addressed (22%), an issue that has become of increasing significance by 7-points (Up from 15% in 2012). In addition to unemployment, corruption (18%), education (18%), electricity (17%), and security (9%) were other important issues that Nigerians expect to be addressed in the next 1 year. Finally, after 53 years, the majority of Nigerians (22%) consider “Democracy” to be the country’s greatest achievement followed by “Telecommunications” (19%) and “Unity” (13%). Survey Methods The opinion poll was conducted on September 16th to 18th 2013. It involved telephone interviews of a random nationwide sample. 1,013 randomly selected phone-owning Nigerians aged 18 years and above, representing the six geopolitical zones in the country, were interviewed. With a sample of this size, we can say with 95% confidence that the results obtained are statistically precise – within a range of plus or minus 3%. NOIPolls Limited is the No.1 for country-specific polling services in West Africa. We work in technical partnership with the Gallup Organisation (USA), to conduct periodic opinion polls and studies on various socio-economic and political issues in Nigeria. More information is available at www.noi-polls.com Disclaimer This press release has been produced by NOIPolls Limited to provide information on all issues which form the subject matter of the document. Kindly note that while we are willing to share results from our polls with the general public, we only request that NOIPolls be acknowledged as author whenever and wherever our poll results are used, cited or published. NOIPolls hereby certifies that all the views expressed in this document accurately reflect its views of respondents surveyed for the poll, and background information is based on information from various sources that it believes are reliable; however, no representation is made that it is accurate or complete. Whilst reasonable care has been taken in preparing this document, no responsibility or liability is accepted for errors or fact or for any views expressed herein by NOIPolls for actions taken as a result of information provided in this report. Any ratings, forecasts, estimates, opinions or views herein constitute a judgement as at the date of this document. If the date of this document is not current, the views and content may not reflect NOIPolls’ current findings and/or thinking. Press Contact The Editor Email: editor@noi-polls.com
- Nigerians Favour Decentralisation of Revenue Allocation
Abuja, Nigeria. July 31st, 2013 – Latest weekly poll results released by NOI Polls Limited have revealed a very close margin between Nigerians who feel the Federal Government should be allocated the higher percent of revenue and those who feel it should be the States with 34% and 33% respectively. Also, results show that 28% of Nigerians want the higher percentage of revenue allocation to go the Local Governments. This finding shows a majority (61%) of Nigerians (33% + 28%) are in favour of the decentralisation of revenue allocation to the lower tiers of government. Further findings of the poll indicate that a higher percentage of Nigerians (61%) are of the opinion that the Federal Government should be responsible for roads while 43%, 53% and 39% of Nigerians (forming the majority) are of the opinion that the states governments should be responsible for primary education, water/sanitation and primary health care respectively. These form the key findings of the Fiscal Federalism poll conducted in the week of July 22, 2013. The design of Fiscal Federalism in Nigeria remains a contentious issue. Sub-national governments (State and Local Governments) continue to point to an imbalance between their responsibilities to deliver critical public goods and services (such as primary healthcare, primary education, and water & sanitation) and the proportion of revenue they actually receive under the vertical revenue allocation rule which determines how national tax revenues are shared between the 3 levels of government (Federal, State and Local) – as stipulated in the 1999 Constitution. The revenue formula determines how these revenues are shared between the Federal, State and Local Governments. Currently, the Federal Government receives 52.68%, States receive a share of 26.72% and Local Government Areas receive 20.6%. As part of the on-going Constitutional Review, the Revenue Mobilization and Fiscal Allocation Committee (RMFAC) recently submitted its report to the National Assembly on potential reforms to the vertical revenue allocation rule. An argument made by the National Assembly is for a fair share of the revenue across all tiers of government. However, the Nigerian State Governors in April 2012 suggested through the Nigerian Governors Forum that states should have a higher share of 42% in the allocation. Based on this background, NOI Polls conducted its latest poll on Fiscal Federalism to gauge the level of awareness of the current revenue sharing formula, establish the opinions of Nigerians about Fiscal Federalism and their perceived responsibility about public goods and services. Respondents to the poll were asked five specific questions. The first question aimed to gauge the level of awareness of Nigerians on the current revenue sharing formula currently used in Nigeria: Are you aware of the current revenue sharing formula between the Federal, State and Local levels of Government in Nigeria? An overall majority of 66% responded negatively indicating they are not knowledgeable about the revenue sharing formula currently being used in the allocation of revenue between the three levels of Government. Comparatively, 34% indicated they are aware of the current revenue sharing formula; even though this is the minority, it is nevertheless an encouraging proportion of Nigerians. Out of the proportion that are aware of the revenue sharing formula, more male respondents (43%) showed awareness than female respondents (26%). Based on analysis by geo-political zone, while the North-Central and South-South zones had the highest proportion of respondents (70% each) that had no knowledge of the current revenue sharing formula, the South-East zone accounted for the highest proportion of respondents (40%) that showed awareness of the revenue sharing formula. When the level of awareness is further analysed by the professional background of respondents, responses show that government workers/civil servants (45%) showed the highest level of awareness of the revenue sharing formula; this is followed by professional workers such as lawyers, doctors etc. (44%) and unemployed youth/adult with 35%. Artisans with 20% showed the lowest level of awareness of the revenue sharing formula. Furthermore the age category of respondents with the highest level of awareness of the current revenue sharing formula is 46-60 years with 45%. This is followed by respondents within the age bracket of 30-45 years (38%)and 22-29 years (30%). The age category with the lowest level of awareness is 18-21years with 9%. The second question sought to gauge the level of awareness of Nigerians on the current on-going constitutional review that addresses the revenue allocation formula. Respondents that indicated awareness of the revenue sharing formula in the previous question (i.e. 34% of the total) were asked: Are you aware of the on-going constitutional review that may change the share of revenue received by each level of government? Reaction to this showed that the overall majority of respondents (71%) were aware of the on-going constitutional review, while 29% claimed they are not aware of the on-going constitutional review. From the geo-political standpoint, the North-Central and the North-East zones with 80% and 75%respectively, accounted for the highest proportion of respondents that are aware of the on-going constitutional review. Conversely, the South East had the lowest proportion (63%) of respondents that are aware of the review. In order to establish the opinions of Nigerians on the responsibilities of the Federal, State and Local levels of government, all respondents were asked: In your opinion, which level of government (Federal, State or Local) should be most responsible for roads building and providing primary education, water and sanitation and primary healthcare? Results showed varied reactions on the responsibilities of the three level of government with regards to each of these sectors. Firstly, regarding the construction of roads, the overall majority (61%) are of the opinion that the Federal government should be responsible for road building in Nigeria, while 27% feel the responsibility of road building in Nigeria should lie with the State level of government, and 12% believe that it is the responsibility of Local government. Further analysis by geo-political zone shows that the North-East zone had the highest number of respondents(71%) that believe the Federal government should be responsible for construction of roads. Also the South-West zone accounted for the highest proportion of respondents (36%) that indicated States should be responsible and North-West zone had the highest number of respondents (21%) that indicated the local government to be responsible for the construction of roads. Secondly with reference to Primary Education, analysis show that 43% of the respondents indicated the state level of government should be responsible for providing primary education; this is followed by 34% who are of the opinion that the Federal Government should bear the responsibility, while the remaining 23% indicated the Local Government should be responsible. Analysis from geo-political zones showed that while the North-East zone had the highest proportion of respondents (44%) who indicated the onus be on the Federal Government, the South-South zone accounted for the highest number respondents (53%) that specified the State government. In addition the North-Centraland the South-West zones had the highest number of respondents (27% each) that believe the Local government should be responsible for primary education. In relation to water and sanitation, analysis showed that the overall majority (53%) are of the opinion that the provision of water and sanitation in Nigeria is the responsibility of the State government, this is followed by 24%who believe the Federal government should take charge of providing water and sanitation, while 23% believe the Local government should take responsibility. When the results were analysed according to geo-political zones, the majority of the respondents (66%) that indicated the State government should be responsible for provision of water and sanitation were from theSouth-East zone. Also the North-West zone had the highest proportion (39%) that specified the Federal government and the South-South zone accounted for the highest proportion for respondents (35%) that are of the opinion that the Local government should be responsible for providing water and sanitation in the country. A slight majority of Nigerians (39%) are of the opinion that the State government should be mostly responsible for primary health provision, this if followed by 35% who believe the Federal government should have the responsibility, while the remaining 26% are of the opinion that primary health should be the responsibility of the local government. Further analysis according to geo-political zones revealed that the South-South zone accounted for the highest number of respondents (51%) who indicated the State government should be responsible for matters relating to primary healthcare provision; the North-East zone had the majority of respondents (57%) who say the Federal Government should be responsible for primary healthcare. Moreover, the highest number of respondents (35%)that indicated that the local government should be responsible for providing primary health in Nigeria come from the North-Central zone. Furthermore in order to gauge the opinions of Nigerians on the ideal revenue split between the three levels of government, respondents were asked: In your opinion, which level of government (Federal, State or Local) should receive the most revenue from the revenue sharing formula? In reaction to this, a very narrow majority of34% are of the opinion that the Federal government should receive the highest proportion in the revenue sharing formula. This is closely followed by the 33% of respondents that indicated the state government should get the highest share of the revenue. This further supports results from the previous question where the state government was perceived to be the tier of government that should be responsible for providingprimary education, water and sanitation and primary healthcare by the majority. In addition, 28% are of the opinion that the Local government should get the highest allocation of revenue while just5% say a formula that allows an equal share of the revenue between the Federal, State and Local government is ideal. From the geo-political zone standpoint, the North-Central (44%) and the South-East (40%) zones had the highest proportion of respondents who believe the Federal Government should receive the highest share. TheSouth-West (39%) and the North-East (34%) zones accounted for the highest proportion of respondents who believe State governments should have the highest share. In addition, the South-South (35%) and theNorth-West (34%) zones had the highest proportion of respondents that are of the opinion that the Local Government should have the highest share of revenue from the revenue allocation formula. Finally respondents were asked why they feel the particular level of government they chose should have the highest allocation of revenue. Those respondents who thought the Federal Government should have the highest share in the revenue sharing formula mainly gave the reasons that “They shoulder more responsibility” (56%)and “They are the highest level of government” (100%). The 57%of respondents that specified that States should receive the most revenue, for the most part, gave reasons such as “They will be able to control and monitor more effectively” and “They will be able to coordinate the lower tier of government”. Finally, for the 70% of respondents who believe the Local Government should have the highest share of revenue, gave the main reason of, “it would aid development at this level of government” In conclusion, majority of Nigerians (66%) are not aware of the sharing formula currently employed by the three tiers of government in Nigeria. However, among the 34% that are aware of the formula, the majority (71%) are aware of the on-going constitutional review that is likely to change the status quo. In exploring the perceived responsibilities of the three levels of government, the Federal level of government came top on the chart as the tier of government that should be responsible for road building, while the majority specified that the State government should be responsible for the provision of primary education, water and good sanitation, as well as primary healthcare. In addition, there was almost a tie in the number of respondents suggesting a higher share of revenue in the sharing formula for the Federal Government (34%) and State governments(33%). Survey Methods The opinion poll was conducted on July 22nd to 25th 2013. It involved telephone interviews of a random nationwide sample. 1,003 randomly selected phone-owning Nigerians aged 18 years and above, representing the six geopolitical zones in the country, were interviewed. With a sample of this size, we can say with 95% confidence that the results obtained are statistically precise – within a range of plus or minus 3%. NOI Polls Limited is Nigeria’s leading opinion polling and research organisation, which works in technical partnership with the Gallup Organisation (USA), to conduct periodic opinion polls and studies on various socio-economic and political issues in Nigeria. More information is available at www.noi-polls.com Disclaimer This press release has been produced by NOI Polls Limited to provide information on all issues which form the subject matter of the document. Kindly note that while we are willing to share results from our polls with the general public, we only request that NOI Polls be acknowledged as author whenever and wherever our poll results are used, cited or published. NOI Polls hereby certifies that all the views expressed in this document accurately reflect its views of respondents surveyed for the poll, and background information is based on information from various sources that it believes are reliable; however, no representation is made that it is accurate or complete. Whilst reasonable care has been taken in preparing this document, no responsibility or liability is accepted for errors or fact or for any views expressed herein by NOI Polls for actions taken as a result of information provided in this report. Any ratings, forecasts, estimates, opinions or views herein constitute a judgment as at the date of this document. If the date of this document is not current, the views and content may not reflect NOI Polls’ current findings and/or thinking. Press Contact The Editor Email: editor@noi-polls.com
- How Long is Enough?
Abuja, Nigeria. March 2011. The recent political unrest sweeping through the Middle East and North African states has brought to the fore, the question of what is a reasonable length of time for a president to effectively rule a country. These developments prompted NOI Polls to conduct a survey to get the opinions of Nigerians on how long is enough time to rule a country. The survey results showed that an overwhelming proportion (89%) of respondents think a president should not be allowed to rule indefinitely. Rather, about 60% of respondents think 0 – 4 years is adequate time to rule a country effectively. 30% believe 5 – 8 years would be more appropriate, while only less than 1% support a period over 8 years. The poll shows a general consensus among respondents on the need for a time limit on a presidential term. Though, it is noteworthy that 1% of respondents are in favor of indefinite rule. Survey Methods These results are based on 1095 telephone interviews with randomly selected phone–owning Nigerians aged 18 years and older, across the six geographical regions of the country. The poll was conducted between February 23rd -25th, 2011. With a sample of this size, we can say with 95% confidence that the results have a statistical precision of plus or minus 4 percentage points of what they would have been if the entire population had been surveyed. This poll is part of the ongoing snap poll exercise conducted by NOI Polls to rapidly assess public sentiments following various social, political or economic events. NOI Polls – a Nigeria based opinion research organization works in technical partnership with Gallup Polls (USA), to conduct periodic opinion polls on various socioeconomic issues in Nigeria.
- Nigerians Claim That Political Campaigns Are Not Addressing Key Issues In The Country
Abuja, Nigeria. January 27th, 2015 – An election poll commissioned by BusinessDay Media and conducted by NOIPolls Limited in November 2014 revealed that more than half (57%) of the Nigerian adult population believe political campaigns are not focusing on current issues in the country; this perception cuts across all regions, although residents of North-West zone maintained a different perspective as the majority in this region believe the campaigns of politicians are focused on addressing the present issues. In line with this, a significant proportion (48%) of Nigerians stated politicians should focus on addressing security in their campaigns to make meaningful impact. This stance was mostly maintained by residents of the North-East (70%)and North-West (62%) given the current state of insecurity in these regions. Job Creation and Education were also considered as priority for focus among other areas. More findings revealed that addressing the afore-mentioned issues would greatly influence the voting decisions of most Nigerians in the 2015 elections as reported by majority of the respondents (64%) surveyed. Furthermore, a view of the pressing issues in Nigeria demonstrates Education (67%) as the most pressing national issue that needs to be tackled, followed by Electricity (39%), Infrastructure (38%), and Water (34%), among others; even though Nigerians believe current campaigns should focus on security. These were some of the key findings from the election poll. Brief Background Elections in Nigeria generally witness the adoption of several competitive strategies by political parties and candidates to solicit the support and followership of citizens; one of which is through political campaigns. Political campaigns enable candidates better know how to allocate their resources and develop better insight into how the electorate makes their voting decisions. They are organised efforts by a political party or candidate for public office to attract the support of voters in an election.[1] Since Nigerian voters are increasingly becoming less tied to a particular party, ahead of the February 2015 general elections political candidate have heightened their campaigns with political messages in order to manage the media and to maximize the number of votes. Against this background NOIPolls on behalf of BusinessDay conducted a poll to gauge the perception of Nigerians on the current campaigns of politicians, pressing issues that need to be addressed by politicians and the impact of addressing these issues on the voting decisions of Nigerians. Key Findings With the aim of the assessing the eagerness of Nigerians to voting in the 2015 elections, respondents were asked:Are you looking forward to voting in the 2015 general elections? Findings revealed that 83% of the respondents affirmed positively, disclosing that they are looking forward to voting in the general elections in 2015. More males (87%) expressed optimism to the 2015 general elections than females (78%). Analysis by geo-political zones revealed that the North-West (89%) and South-East (87%) regions accounted for the largest proportions of Nigerians who expressed optimism for voting in the 2015 general elections when compared to other regions, although a majority of residents in all the geo-political zones expressed optimism in voting in the 2015 general elections, with a minimum 76%(North Central). Also, respondents aged 46-60 and 18-21 years showed more optimism for voting in the 2015 elections than other age-groups. [1] Olujide, J.O. Gbadeyan, R.A. 2011. “Nigerian Electorates’ Perception of Political Advertising and Election Campaign” Journal of Social Sciences 27(3): 179-185. Analysis by geo-political zones revealed that the North-West (89%) and South-East (87%) regions accounted for the largest proportions of Nigerians who expressed optimism for voting in the 2015 general elections when compared to other regions, although a majority of residents in all the geo-political zones expressed optimism in voting in the 2015 general elections, with a minimum 76% (North Central). Also, respondents aged 46-60 and 18-21 years showed more optimism for voting in the 2015 elections than other age-groups. To assess the perceptions of Nigerians on the political campaigns of political candidates, respondents were asked:In your opinion, do you think the campaigns of politicians are currently focused on addressing the present issues in Nigeria? Results revealed that majority of adult Nigerians (57%) believe political campaigns are not focusing on current issues in the country. this stance was maintained by the majority across almost all geo-political zones except for the North-West zone where the majority believe that the campaigns of politicians are focused on addressing the present issues. Also, adult Nigerians (69%) aged 61 and above accounted for the highest proportion of respondents who indicated that recent political campaigns do not address current issues in Nigeria. Subsequently, respondents were asked: In your opinion, what are the most pressing national issues politicians should focus on addressing? This question was a multiple response question meaning respondents were allowed to select more than one option. A larger proportion of respondents (67%) indicated Education as the most pressing national issue politicians should focus on tackling. This was followed by Electricity (39%), Infrastructures (38%), Water (34%), and Health (26%) among others. Further analysis revealed that the North-East and North-West regions had the largest proportion of residents, who indicated education as the most pressing national issue politicians should focus on with 82% and 81%respectively. A larger proportion of males (69%) than females (65%) and across all adult age groups acknowledged that education is the most pressing national issue politicians should address. Additionally, respondents were asked: which of the issues identified in the previous question were mostly addressed by past elected officials? This was a single response question, allowing respondents select the most addressed option considered in the previous question. According to results, security was selected as the most addressed national issue by past elected officials, according to 28% of respondents. This was followed by Education, Electricity, Infrastructure Development and Job Creation at 15%, 14%, 13% and 9%, respectively. With the aim of gauging the perceptions of Nigerians on issues campaigns should focus on (based on the issues stated above), respondents were asked: Which of these issues do you think politicians should mostly focus on addressing in their campaigns towards the 2015 election? This was a single response question, meaning respondents were only allowed to select one option. Findings revealed that although Nigerians identified Education as the most pressing national issue as seen in a previous chart, however, a significant proportion (48%) of Nigerians believe politicians should focus on addressing security in their campaigns; to make meaningful impact. This is followed by Job Creation (13%), Education (8%) and Electricity (8%). It is worthy to mention that, most residents of the North-East (70%) and North-West (62%) regions revealed politicians should address security challenges in their campaigns. The proportion of residents who consider this priority was larger in the North than in the South. Alternatively, a significant proportion of Southern residents consider job creation as an issue politicians need to address in their campaigns, than their Northern counterparts. Finally respondents who indicated an option in the previous question were asked: To what extent would addressing the issue in campaigns influence your voting decision for a political candidate? Most surveyed respondents (64%) revealed that addressing these issues would influence their voting decision to a great extent; this stance was maintained by the majority across all regions, gender and age groups. In addition, while 23% mentioned that addressing relevant issues in campaigns would influence their voting decisions to some extent, 13% of respondents indicated that this would influence their decisions to no extent at all. According to an age group analysis, the respondents aged 60 years and above represented the highest proportion (20%) of respondents who revealed that addressing the most pressing issue in political campaigns would not influence their voting decision. In conclusion, findings from the poll revealed that a majority of adult Nigerians (57%) believe the campaigns by politicians do NOT focus on addressing present issues in Nigeria. In line with this, a significant proportion of respondents (48%) indicated politicians should address security in their campaigns. This was followed by Job Creation (13%), Education (8%), and Electricity (8%). Poll results also revealed that most respondents indicated that addressing pressing issues in political campaigns would influence their voting decision. However 13%mentioned it would NOT influence their decision at all. An assessment of the pressing issues in Nigeria revealed that education is considered the most pressing national issue by 67% of Nigerians. This is followed by Electricity (39%), Infrastructure (38%), Water (34%) and Health (26%) among others. Survey Methods The opinion poll was commissioned by BusinessDay Media and conducted by NOIPolls in November 2014. It involved telephone interviews of a random nationwide sample. 1,500 randomly selected phone-owning Nigerians aged 18 years and above, representing the six geopolitical zones in the country were interviewed. With a sample of this size, we can say with 95% confidence that the results obtained are statistically precise – within a range of plus or minus 2.5%. NOIPolls Limited, No. 1 for credible country-specific polling services in West Africa in a technical partnership with the Gallup Organisation (USA), conducts periodic opinion polls and studies on various socio-economic and political issues in Nigeria. More information is available at www.noi-polls.com Disclaimer This press release has been produced by NOIPolls Limited and authorised for release by BusinessDay Media on the NOIPolls media platform to provide information on all issues which form the subject matter of the document. BusinessDay, established in 2001, is a daily business newspaper based in Lagos, Nigeria. It is the only Nigerian newspaper with a bureau in Accra, Ghana. BusinessDay Media Ltd is the leading medium for up-to-date news and insightful analysis of business, policy and the economy in Nigeria, a critical decision-making tool for investors and managers. It provides unbiased news and informed analysis on politics, governance, social and economic trends. Kindly note that while we are willing to share results from our polls with the general public, we only request that NOIPolls be acknowledged as author whenever and wherever our poll results are used, cited or published. NOIPolls hereby certifies that all the views expressed in this document accurately reflect its views of respondents surveyed for the poll, and background information is based on information from various sources that it believes are reliable; however, no representation is made that it is accurate or complete. Whilst reasonable care has been taken in preparing this document, no responsibility or liability is accepted for errors or fact or for any views expressed herein by NOIPolls for actions taken as a result of information provided in this report. Any ratings, forecasts, estimates, opinions or views herein constitute a judgment as at the date of this document. If the date of this document is not current, the views and content may not reflect NOIPolls’ current findings and/or thinking. Press Contact The Editor Email: editor@noi-polls.com
- In February 2015; The President’s Job Performance Rises To 63 percent
Abuja, Nigeria. March 5th, 2015– Latest governance poll results released by NOIPolls have revealed that the President’s approval rating for February 2015 stood at 63 percent. This represents an 8-points increase from January 2015 and a 12-points increase from January 2014. On the contrary, 28 percent of Nigerians disapproved of the president’s job performance with majority of Nigerians in this section representing the North-East zone (55 percent), while 9 percent remained neutral as they neither approved nor disapproved of his performance. Furthermore, the President achieved an average (3) rating in terms of his performance in Economy, Health, Education, Transportation and Foreign Policy & Diplomacy. In Agriculture & Food security he recorded a score above average (4), whereas; he performed very poorly in Job creation, Power and Security. More findings revealed that the larger share (46 percent) of Nigerians surveyed reported that power supply to their household worsened over the past one month and this represents an 11-points decline when compared to February 2015 result. In addition, 22 percent of Nigerians saw no difference at all in power supply, while 32 percent affirmed that they saw an improvement in power supply to their households within the past one month. These are some of the key findings from the Governance Snap Poll conducted in the week of February 23rd2015. These results represent the second in the 2015 monthly series of governance polls conducted by NOIPolls to gauge the opinions and perceptions of Nigerians regardingthe approval rating of the President, the performance of the President on key elements of his transformation agenda, and thestate of power supply in the country. Respondents to the poll were asked three specific questions. The first sought to assess the opinion of Nigerians on the performance of President Goodluck Jonathan over the past 1 month. Respondents were asked: Do you approve or disapprove of the job performance of President Jonathan in the past 1 month?The survey findings revealed that the President’s job performance in the past one month increased by 8-points as approved by 68 percent (26 percent+37 percent) of adult Nigerians interviewed. On the contrary, 28 percent disapproved of the President’s job performance while, 9 percent remained neutral as they neither approved nor disapprove. More analysis on the President’s performance by geo-political zones indicated that the South-East zone (90 percent) and South-South zone (82 percent) had the highest percentage of respondents who approved of the President’s job performance. On the other hand, the North-East zone (55 percent) and North-West zone (42 percent) had the largest proportion of respondents who disapproved of the President’s job performance, whereas, the North-Central zone (13 percent) and the South-West zone (13 percent) accounted for the largest proportion of Nigerians who remained neutral. Trend analysis by geo-political zones revealed a general increase in the President’s approval rating across all zones in February 2015 from January 2015; hence, resulting in the overall increase in his job performance rating. The increase per zone is as follows; North-Central (10-points), North-East (5-points), North-West (10-points), South-East (6-points), South-South (1-point), and South-West (14-points). Further trend analysis of the President’s approval rating indicates a significant 8-points increase in February from January 2015. This rating represents a 12-points increase when compared to February 2014. To gauge the performance of the President on pertinent elements of his transformation agenda, respondents were asked: On a scale of 1 to 5, where 1 is very poor and 5 is excellent, how would you rate the performance of the President Jonathan in the following areas? (1) Job Creation (2) Power (3) Economy (4) Health (5) Education (6) Agriculture & Food Security (7) Transportation (8) Foreign policy & Diplomacy and (9) Security. The outcome shows that the President achieved an average (3) rating in terms of his performance in Economy, Health, Education, Transportation and Foreign Policy & Diplomacy. In Agriculture & Food security he recorded a score above average (4), whereas he performed very poorly in Job creation, Power and Security. Comparing current results with January 2015 revealed that the President’s performance rating on Economy, Education, Transportation and Foreign Policy & Diplomacy maintained an average ranking of 3. Job Creation, Power and security also maintained a poor rating, while Health and Agriculture & Food Security experienced a 2-points and 1-point increase respectively. Finally, to find out the state of power supply to Nigerian households over the past month, respondents were asked: How would you describe power supply in your area in the last 1 month? Findings revealed that the larger proportion (46 percent) of Nigerians reported that power supply to their household worsened over the past one month. While 22 percent indicated that there is no difference at all, 32 percent saw an improvement in power supply to their households within the past one month. Analysis by geo-political zone revealed that the North-East (42 percent) and South-East zones (42 percent) accounted for the larger proportion of Nigerians who experienced an improvement in power supply, whereas, the South-South (53 percent) and South-West zones (53 percent) accounted for the larger proportion of Nigerians who reported a poor state of power supply to their households over the past month. Monthly trend evaluation revealed an 11-points decrease in power supply in February 2015. This result represents an 8-point decline from February 2014. In conclusion, the governance poll result revealed that 63 percent of Nigerians approved of the President’s job performance for February 2015 whereas, 28 percent disapproved of the President’s job performance while, 9 percent remained neutral as they neither approved nor disapproved. Also, the President achieved an average (3) rating in terms of his performance in Economy, Health, Education, Transportation and Foreign Policy & Diplomacy. He recorded a score above average (4) in Agriculture & Food security whereas he performed very poorly in Job creation, Power and Security. Finally, majority (46 percent) of Nigerians surveyed reported power supply to their household worsened over the past one month. 32 percent claimed they saw an improvement within the past one month, while 22 percent stated there is no difference at all in power supply to their households. Survey Methods The opinion poll was conducted in the week of February 23rd 2015. It involved telephone interviews of a random nationwide sample. 1,000 randomly selected phone-owning Nigerians aged 18 years and above, representing the six geopolitical zones in the country, were interviewed. With a sample of this size, we can say with 95 percent confidence that the results obtained are statistically precise – within a range of plus or minus 3 percent. NOIPolls Limited, No1 for country specific polling services in West Africa, works in technical partnership with the Gallup Organisation (USA). We conduct periodic opinion polls and studies on various socio-economic and political issues in Nigeria. More information is available at www.noi-polls.com Disclaimer This press release has been produced by NOIPolls Limited to provide information on all issues which form the subject matter of the document. Kindly note that while we are willing to share results from our polls with the general public, we only request that NOIPolls be acknowledged as author whenever and wherever our poll results are used, cited or published. NOIPolls hereby certifies that all the views expressed in this document accurately reflect its views of respondents surveyed for the poll, and background information is based on information from various sources that it believes are reliable; however, no representation is made that it is accurate or complete. Whilst reasonable care has been taken in preparing this document, no responsibility or liability is accepted for errors or fact or for any views expressed herein by NOIPolls for actions taken as a result of information provided in this report. Any ratings, forecasts, estimates, opinions or views herein constitute a judgment as at the date of this document. If the date of this document is not current, the views and content may not reflect NOIPolls’ current findings and/or thinking. Press Contact The Editor Email: editor@noi-polls.com
- Majority of Registered Voters Gear Up to Vote in the 2015 Election
Abuja, Nigeria. February 25th, 2014 – The recently released Election Poll results by NOIPolls Limited has revealed that majority of adult Nigerians claim to be registered voters (75%). Also, of the 25% yet-to-register, the vast majority (92%) plan to register in time for the 2015 elections. The results further revealed that majority of registered voters (88%) are eagerly looking forward to voting in the 2015 elections; while citing the need “to exercise their right to vote as Nigerians” (40%) and “to vote for the right/good leader” (31%) as the top reasons. On the other hand, of the 12% of registered voters who do not look forward to voting, the most cited reasons include the suspicion that “their vote will not count” (36%), they “Don’t have the time” (22%), and they “Don’t Trust the Elections” (21%). These are the key findings from the Countdown to the 2015 Election Poll conducted in the week of February 17th 2014. Brief Background In January 2014, Mrs. Augusta Ogakwu; the Secretary of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) announced that the Presidential and National Assembly elections will hold on February 14, 2015; while the State Assembly and Governorship elections are scheduled for February 28, 2015. Mixed reactions have trailed the election timetable; some Nigerians applauded INEC for the timely release of the schedule for the elections while others have questioned the decision to hold the presidential and National Assembly polls before the governorship and state assembly elections. They argued that holding the presidential poll first would have a bandwagon effect on the subsequent elections[1]. As Nigeria prepares towards the 2015 polls, INEC Chairman; Attahiru Jega has painted an optimistic picture of the 2015 elections saying the lessons of the 2011 elections had been learnt and new processes are now in place to make the coming elections “much better than anything in the past.” Questions that are currently swirling around and being debated in the polity include” Has the PDP been weakened irrevocably? Can the APC hold itself together? Will Jonathan win if he runs again?”[2] Against this background, NOIPolls conducted its Countdown to the 2015 Elections poll to seek the views of Nigerians regarding the 2015 general elections. This is the second in the series of election polls conducted by NOIPolls (the first one was conducted in April 2013) and the first in the series of bi-monthly polls that will be conducted as Nigeria countdowns to the actual elections in 2015. Respondents to the poll were asked five specific questions. In order to gauge the proportion of registered voters, respondents were asked: Presently, are you a registered voter? Overall, the majority (75%) responded positively, claiming they are currently registered voters; while25% of Nigerians responded negatively. Further analysis by geo-political zones, indicates that the South-East zone (83%) has the highest proportion of registered voters, while the North-West zone and the South-South zone (both 28%) have the highest proportion of those that are not yet registered. In addition, the age-group that has the highest percentage (89%) of registered voter is 46-60 years. [1] The Sun Newspapers [2] Premium Times Respondents who are not registered (25% of the total) were further asked: If No, do you plan to register in time for the 2015 elections? Responses to this question revealed that the overwhelming majority of those not registered; 92% plan to register in time for the 2015elections, while only 8% are not interested in registering at all. When current findings are compared with results from the previous poll conducted in 2013, there is a significant 16-point increase in the proportion of Nigerians who are yet to register, but indicate they have plans to register in time for the 2015 elections. The third question sought to gauge the level of enthusiasm among registered voters. Registered respondents (75% of the total) were asked: Are you looking forward to voting in the 2015 elections? Overall, the majority of registered voters (88%) indicated they are looking forward to voting in the 2015 elections; while 12% of the respondents claim they are not looking forward to voting in 2015 elections. Findings based on geo-political zones show that the South-East zone (93%) had the highest proportion of respondents who are looking forward to voting in the 2015 elections. This is followed by the North-Central zone with 92% and the North-West zone with 89%. Furthermore, when these findings are compared with the previous poll conducted in 2013, there was a slight 2-point decline in the proportion of Nigerians who look forward to voting in the 2015 elections. Subsequently, in order to gain insights into factors stimulating the keenness to vote, Nigerians who are looking forward to voting in the 2015 elections (88% of registered voters) were further asked: If yes, why are you looking forward to voting in the 2015 elections? Bearing in mind that this was an open-ended question, the findings revealed that the majority (40%) are looking forward to voting in the 2015 elections because they want “toexercise their right to vote as Nigerians”, while 31% are stimulated by the need “to vote for the right/good leader”. Furthermore, 10% are looking forward to the elections in order “to vote for a change of government”, while another 7% mentioned “for transformation / better Nigeria. Analysis based on geo-political zones revealed that the South-West zone (47%) has the highest proportion of Nigerians who are stimulated by the need “to exercise their right to vote as Nigerians”, while the South-East zone (41%) accounts for the largest proportion of respondents that look forward to 2015 elections in order “to vote for the right/good leader”. Also, the South-South zone (30%) has the highest proportion of respondents that indicated “to vote for a change of government” Furthermore, trend analysis of the findings obtained from the previous poll revealed a significant 10-point decline in the proportion of respondents who are motivated by the need to vote for the right/good leader; it was 41% in 2013. Furthermore, there was a slim 2-pointincrease in the proportion of Nigerians that want to vote in order to exercise their right to vote as Nigerians in 2014. Finally, in similar way respondents who indicated they are not looking forward to voting in the 2015 elections (12% of registered voters) were asked: If no, why are you not looking forward to voting in the 2015 elections? Results indicate the majority (36%) are of the opinion that “their vote does not count”, this is followed by 22% who say “they don’t have time” and 21% who say they have “no trust in elections”. In addition, 14% claim there are demotivated towards voting in the 2015 elections due to “insecurity” and 5% are of the opinion that the “Nigerian system is bad”. Gauging the responses from the geo-political zone standpoint reveals that the North-Eastzone has the highest (87%) proportion of respondents who think “their vote does not count” while the North-West zone has the highest proportion of respondents who claim “they don’t have time” (45%) and also indicated “insecurity” (45%) as a demotivating factor to voting. In addition, the South-West zone (41%) accounts for the highest proportion of respondents who have “no trust in elections”. When these current findings are compared with the results obtained in 2013, there was an 8-point decline in the proportion of respondents that indicate their “vote does not count” even though it remains the popular opinion among respondents that are not looking forward to voting. In conclusion, findings from the election poll reveals the majority of Nigerians are registered voters (75%) and of this proportion, the overwhelming majority; 88% are looking forward to voting in the 2015 general elections. More findings also reveals that the overwhelming majority;92% out of 25% who are not yet registered plan to register in time for the 2015 elections. Furthermore, in 2014 there was a significant 16-point increase in the proportion of Nigerians who are yet to register but indicated they plan to register in time for the elections. In addition, the vast majority of registered voters are looking forward to voting in the 2015 elections (88%). The most popular reason (40%) given by those that are looking forward to voting is “to exercise their right to vote as Nigerians”, while the most popular reason by those who do not look forward to voting (36%) is that “their vote will not count”. Finally, as the 2015 elections draw closer, it’s clear that voter apathy will be a major deterrent since the majority of Nigerians are currently highly enthusiastic about voting in the upcoming 2015 polls. Survey Methods The opinion poll was conducted in February 17th to 19th 2014. It involved telephone interviews of a random nationwide sample. 1,000 randomly selected phone-owning Nigerians aged 18 years and above, representing the six geopolitical zones in the country, were interviewed. With a sample of this size, we can say with 95% confidence that the results obtained are statistically precise – within a range of plus or minus 3%. NOIPolls Limited, No. 1 for country-specific polling services in West Africa, which works in technical partnership with the Gallup Organisation (USA), to conduct periodic opinion polls and studies on various socio-economic and political issues in Nigeria. More information is available at www.noi-polls.com Disclaimer This press release has been produced by NOIPolls Limited to provide information on all issues which form the subject matter of the document. Kindly note that while we are willing to share results from our polls with the general public, we only request that NOIPolls be acknowledged as author whenever and wherever our poll results are used, cited or published. NOIPolls hereby certifies that all the views expressed in this document accurately reflect its views of respondents surveyed for the poll, and background information is based on information from various sources that it believes are reliable; however, no representation is made that it is accurate or complete. Whilst reasonable care has been taken in preparing this document, no responsibility or liability is accepted for errors or fact or for any views expressed herein by NOIPolls for actions taken as a result of information provided in this report. Any ratings, forecasts, estimates, opinions or views herein constitute a judgment as at the date of this document. If the date of this document is not current, the views and content may not reflect NOIPolls’ current findings and/or thinking. Press Contact The Editor Email: editor@noi-polls.com
- Nigerians favour Strong Opposition
Abuja, Nigeria. December 8, 2010 – As the tempo of political activities continues to surge in the run-up to the 2011 nationwide presidential and legislative elections, a significant proportion of Nigerians have expressed their preference for a strong opposition which can provide healthy competition for the dominant Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). This was one of the key findings from the December 2010 edition of the NOI Snap Poll, the leading non-partisan survey of political and socio-economic trends in Nigeria. In the survey, 61% or three out five of those polled indicated their support for opposition political parties to unite in order to provide a more effective opposition. However it also significant that more than one in three of those who answered questions said they are opposed to any such moves. The poll also revealed that a healthy proportion of Nigerians – three out of four respondents or 75% of respondents – are aware of the number of political parties (62) in the country. Survey Methods Respondents for the snap poll were randomly selected from a database of phone-owning Nigerians aged 18 and above, compiled by NOI Polls. 1,012 people took part in the telephone interviews from the 15th to 17th of November, 2010. For a sample of this size, we can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points. The margin of error reflects the influence of data weighting. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.










