Ekiti Guber Pre-Election Poll: Eleka in early lead over Fayemi

Abuja, Nigeria. June 26th, 2018 – Ahead of the forthcoming Ekiti State Gubernatorial elections slated for July 14th 2018, a new public opinion poll conducted by NOIPolls has pitched Professor Kolapo Olusola, candidate of the People Democratic Party (PDP) in an early 8-point lead over Dr. John Kayode Fayemi, candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC). 

The poll was conducted between 18th and 23rd June 2018 and it sought to assess the preparedness of voters towards the forthcoming Governorship election in Ekiti state. From the results of 1,000 randomly selected respondents, all resident in Ekiti state, and interviewed via telephone: Professor Olusola, fondly known as Eleka polled 34 percent; Dr. Fayemi (JKF) polled 26 percent; Otunba Segun Adewale of ADP, fondly called Oshaprapra (7 percent); and Reverend Tunde Afe of ANRP (6 percent).

In addition, there were some candidates who altogether polled 4 percent, such as: Akinloye Ayegbusi (SDP), David Ayodele Adesua (ADC), Ebenezer Femi Ogunsakin (PPN), Dr. Sikiru Lawal (LP), Sunday Balogun (MPN), Mrs, Ilesanmi Anike Margaret (AP), Temitope Amuda (KP), Tosin Ajibade (ID) and Agboola Olaniyi (AD) amongst others. 

Interestingly, the poll also revealed that while 93 percent of respondents claimed to have obtained their Permanent Voters Card (PVC), 83 percent were absolutely certain they would come out and vote for the gubernatorial candidate of their choice on 14th July 2018. However, in spite of this level of optimism and preparedness, 23 percent of respondents remain either undecided or simply refused to divulge their choice of candidate. 

The poll further indicated that while Professor Olusola appeared to enjoy significant support across the three senatorial districts of the state, Ekiti Central (39 percent), Ekiti South (36 percent) and Ekiti North (30 percent); Dr. Fayemi’s support base was observed mainly in Ekiti South (28 percent) and Ekiti North (27 percent) senatorial districts. Similarly, the poll highlighted Eleka’s support amongst youths aged between 18 and 35 years (39 percent) and the working-class of ages 36 to 60 years (34 percent); compared to JKF’s whose support averaged 26 percent across all age categories. Interestingly, the poll also revealed a strong female support for Eleka (37 percent), compared to JKF with significant support from male respondents (28 percent).  

In conclusion, although Eleka currently leads the race with a significant 8-point margin, we opine that the election remains a keenly contested race between the two leading candidates (Prof. Olusola and Dr. Fayemi) for two main reasons: 1.) There remains a very significant proportion of voters (23 percent) who remain either undecided or seek confidentiality as to their choice of candidate; and 2.) For political watchers, the election of 14th July 2018 appears to be more of a contest between the incumbent Governor, Dr. Ayodele Fayose and the former Governor, Dr. Kayode Fayemi; and not necessarily between Eleka and JKF.  

About NOIPolls & the Poll Methodology

NOIPolls is Nigeria’s premier public opinion polling institution, which conducts periodic opinion polls and studies on various socio-economic and political issues in Nigeria. More information is available at www.noi-polls.com

The poll was conducted between June 18th and 23rd 2018. It involved telephone interviews of a random state-wide sample in Ekiti State. 1,000 randomly selected phone-owning residents of the state aged 18 years and above, representing the three senatorial districts of the state, were interviewed. With a sample of this size, we can say with 95% confidence that the results obtained are statistically precise - within a range of plus or minus 3%. Of the 1,000 completed interviews, 52 percent were male and 48 percent female respondents. Samples for the poll were selected randomly for the senatorial districts in representation of the state’s population – Ekiti Central (39 percent), Ekiti South (34 percent), and Ekiti North (27 percent). Also, 35 percent of respondents were aged between 18 and 35 years; 57 percent between 36 and 60 years; and 8 percent above 61 years. In terms of employment status of respondents, top 5 respondents are: Self-employed traders (32 percent), Civil servants (21 percent), Artisans (10 percent), Unemployed young people (7 percent), and Students (7 percent). 

Signed 

25-Jun-2018

Dr. Bell Ihua

CEO NOIPolls